Westminstenders: Stuck in the twilightzone

[RedToothBrush]

Just want to remind everyone if what really matters and what the priority if Theresa May is.

May isn't interested in a new referendum. There is barely time to hold one, and anyone remotely interested in one, isn't named Theresa May. Forget it. Its not happening.

Nor are Brexit talks the most important thing. Whilst Jeremy Corbyn seems finally to be playing with some sort if EEA type solution he's not the one named Theresa May. If she doesn't want one, then it won't happen.

May does seem to favour something along these lines but she has to sell it to her party. If she ends up relying on the support of Labour to push it through against what her party want, then that doesn't end well for her or her party. So Corbyn seeming to squeeze her here isn't necessarily a good thing. It could push her to no deal.

Why?

Cos petty party politics.

THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT THING, and don't forget this, is the EU withdrawal Bill. As it stands, May has to concentrate her efforts on this. If it doesn't pass by the art 50 deadline then we have legal chaos. May isn't big on the courts, but I'm not sure she would want that situation either. It would be even more unthinkable than queues at Dover coupled with food shortages.

If it doesn't pass, and the Lords will do all they can to delay and obstruct as long as they can, May's only option is to beg for an art 50 extension. Which the EU might not be inclined to give. Which might leave us in a situation where our only option is to revoke a50.

The only predictable thing, is this will be last minute brinkmanship.

All the talk of a second ref is a distraction. Talk of Labour's position at this point, is all about positioning for the next election and not about Brexit at all.

So try to keep your eyes on what really matters and what battles are May's big ones and which are merely side shows.

I wonder who Side Show Bob will turn out to be.

[OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon]

There's also this

[Biocarb]

[RedToothBrush]

Two cracking articles for you:

news.sky.com/story/sky-views-an-unhelpful-semantic-dance-over-brexit-11208575
Sky Views: An unhelpful semantic dance over Brexit
by Faisal Islam

www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/the-most-important-brexit-detail-youve-never-heard-of
The most important Brexit detail you’ve never heard of
The “Most Favoured Nation” rule makes Britain’s exit from the EU a dangerous endeavour
by Ian Dunt for Prospect Magazine

[DGRossetti]

The most important Brexit detail you’ve never heard of

The problem now is that Brexiteers will just say "if that was true, they would have told us before the referendum. Project Fear ".

And that will be the SOP moving forwards, as more shit hits the fan.

I really wish I could find that clip from the "Man from Auntie".

[Mistigri]

Faisal Islam is very good.

It's been obvious for ages though that the UK is staying in the SM (because of Ireland) and probably the CU (ditto) and that we in the phase of negotiations in which the government negotiates with itself to find an acceptable way of presenting this inevitable outcome to its own ministers, its backbenchers and the Tory press.

Who is going to break the news to Liam I wonder?

I'm sufficiently persuaded of the above to be doing nothing about French citizenship...

[Frankiestein401]

the most important detail...

they didn't mention the corollary
any nation that has an fta with the EU won't be able to offer us better terms without offering them to the EU

basically for any nation that has a deal with the EU - we can't get a better deal with them outside the EU

[woman11017]

Not reported in MSM but this twitter account has live pictures of a demonstration against eugenics at UCL

@ikran
Students at UCL are now outside the university presidents office asking for answers

[woman11017]

Cranberries lead singer Dolores O'Riordan dies suddenly
www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2018/0115/933526-dolores-oriordan/

[BigChocFrenzy]

Thanks for the new thread, red

The Most Favoured Nation issue is of course known to Westministenders - I've posted a few times on this

[pointythings]

Thanks for the new thread, Red

[BigChocFrenzy]

I was the one whingeing last thread about Carillion management bonuses being untouchable, whatever happens later to the company
The bosses obviously concentrated only on what was important to them, sod the company and everyone else.

[RedToothBrush]

Chris Leslie @ChrisLeslieMP
Good opportunity to convey cross-party views from the UK Parliament with @EU_Commission’s @MichelBarnier this afternoon #Brexit

This is an interesting photo. This is the All-Party Parliamentary Group on EU Relations.

Chuka Umunna (Lab), Anna Soubry (Con), Dominic Grieve (Con), Stephen Doughty (Lab), Chris Leslie (Lab).

[RedToothBrush]

Big choc, Deputy PM Liddington has been speaking about it in parliament today.

Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes
Carillion: David Lidington confirms some contracts likely to be taken “in house” by Government. I hear MoJ one likely department to have to take over contracts themselves
Carillion: On massive bonuses to directors with no apparent clawback risk - Lidington says the official receiver will have the power to investigate past and present directors and could impose significant penalties
Carillion: David Lidington says gvt will look when the dust has settled about how gvt undertakes the contracting process

I believe someone said that money in bonus couldn't be reclaimed - except if there was a gross mismanagement issue. This could get interesting.

[Eeeeeowwwfftz]

There was some discussion of rail franchising and the Virgin East Coast business upthread. The most plain-speaking explanation of the franchising system I could find is here: bettertransport.org.uk/sites/default/files/research-files/franchising-guide.pdf

AIUI they somehow manage to figure out at the start whether the franchisee will overall receive a subsidy from the state, or whether they make a payment (called a 'premium') in the other direction. Matters are further complicated by the fact different subsidies/premiums may be paid at different times during the franchising period. One can see why this might be the case: presumably, if a franchisee is to make investments, they would rather do that at the start of the franchise, so as to maximise the return on that investment. So a subsidy might be required to make that investment, and it can turn into a premium once that investment starts to pay back.

This is relevant, because (again, caveated with a massive AIUI) the agreement is that the Virgin/Stagecoach East Coast franchise is to end early. This may mean that some of the premium might be lost, even though much of the subsidy has been paid. I don't know the details of the agreement, and if there are any penalty clauses associated with an early termination. But here again there is a wrinkle: the Virgin/Stagecoach position is that certain investments depended on improvements by (state operated) Network Rail which have not come to fruition. The word on the street seems to be that the govt is letting Virgin/Stagecoach walk away rather than endure legal proceedings on the basis the govt would probably lose (but that hasn't stopped them before when it comes to more trifling matters like parliamentary sovereignty).

What a mess!

Meanwhile I logged on to Twitter to see what the hard right nutbags are making of the Carillion situation. Here's a taster:

Juliet Samuel @CitySamuel 5h5 hours ago

No, Carillion is not being “bailed out”, taxpayers are not “picking up tab”. All shareholders & creditors will lose ££. Pension fund will go to industry-funded PPF, services will revert to gov & be re-tendered/contracts sold on. This is not a “bailout”. It’s called “going bust”

Fair enough. But the point that's being missed here is that if, say, a lightbulb manufacturer goes bust, then the worst-case scenario is that a bunch of people are out of work and you don't get to buy lightbulbs for a bit. If, say, a school meals provider goes bust, then the worst-case scenario is that a bunch of people are out of work and children don't get to eat. The additional costs associated with ensuring continuity of the latter are going to have to be borne by someone. Taxpayers, presumably.

(I don't mean to minimise the job losses, btw; the first thing I thought of when I heard the news was the 43,000 people facing a more uncertain future).

[Eeeeeowwwfftz]

In any case it's a moot point because Liddington has agreed to pay Carillion's private sector employees for 48 hours. So not a bailout then, at all.

[MangoSplit]

Place marking

[BiglyBadgers]

Even if contracts are retendered successfully they clearly have no idea how much work the tendering process involves. It can take years. Even in the very best case scenario this is going to cost the taxpayer money just to manage the transition of contracts. Plus I assume there will be instances when payments have already been made, but nothing yet delivered. Meaning that money will be effectively lost and the whole thing started again from scratch.

However you look at it the public sector is going to pay for this.

[Sostenueto]

Lurking and learning, lurking and learning.....thanks red

[Sostenueto]

Lurking and learning, lurking and learning.....thanks red

[Sostenueto]

lurking and learning thanks red

[Sostenueto]

Sorry about multiple posts bad connection I think

[Eeeeeowwwfftz]

However you look at it the public sector is going to pay for this.

Thanks bigly for once again conveying in a dozen words what I failed to in a short dissertation.

[woman11017]

Did anyone hear James O'Brien this morning? Some interesting callers, and concern that this collapse is the start of many more.
Proper Brexit Recession.
£ goes down, skiddy businesses go down.
Socialise losses; privatise profits.

Good news for the orchids, though, I've always hoped brexit would do for the HS2.

[QuentinSummers]

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