Westminstenders: Stuck in the twilightzone

[RedToothBrush]

Just want to remind everyone if what really matters and what the priority if Theresa May is.

May isn't interested in a new referendum. There is barely time to hold one, and anyone remotely interested in one, isn't named Theresa May. Forget it. Its not happening.

Nor are Brexit talks the most important thing. Whilst Jeremy Corbyn seems finally to be playing with some sort if EEA type solution he's not the one named Theresa May. If she doesn't want one, then it won't happen.

May does seem to favour something along these lines but she has to sell it to her party. If she ends up relying on the support of Labour to push it through against what her party want, then that doesn't end well for her or her party. So Corbyn seeming to squeeze her here isn't necessarily a good thing. It could push her to no deal.

Why?

Cos petty party politics.

THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT THING, and don't forget this, is the EU withdrawal Bill. As it stands, May has to concentrate her efforts on this. If it doesn't pass by the art 50 deadline then we have legal chaos. May isn't big on the courts, but I'm not sure she would want that situation either. It would be even more unthinkable than queues at Dover coupled with food shortages.

If it doesn't pass, and the Lords will do all they can to delay and obstruct as long as they can, May's only option is to beg for an art 50 extension. Which the EU might not be inclined to give. Which might leave us in a situation where our only option is to revoke a50.

The only predictable thing, is this will be last minute brinkmanship.

All the talk of a second ref is a distraction. Talk of Labour's position at this point, is all about positioning for the next election and not about Brexit at all.

So try to keep your eyes on what really matters and what battles are May's big ones and which are merely side shows.

I wonder who Side Show Bob will turn out to be.

Leavers have found a new mission - they are demanding a commemorative set of stamps to mark our exit from the EU.

Scholars of "The Peter Principle" will recognise this as a displacement activity, as Leavers have found their level of incompetence

I would also expect to see:

• A lot of effort put into deciding which day to celebrate "Independence";
• Suggestions about modifying the Union Flag
• A proposal for a committee to come up with new road signs, incorporating the Royal Crest
• Reversing metrication

The more observant readers will have already noted these all have fuck-all to do with the EU ...

Brexit: European Union membership is 'still open' for Britain, both EU presidents say

Jean-Claude Juncker says he hopes the UK will listen

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-donald-tusk-stop-reversed-eu-donald-tusk-2018-a8161321.html

Britain could still “change its mind” about Brexit at this late stage and return to be a member of the European Union, the two highest officials in the European Union have said.

Speaking at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, Euroepan Council president Donald Tusk said that Europeans’ “hearts are still open” to “our British friends” to remain in the bloc.

“If the UK government sticks to its decision to leave Brexit will become a reality, with all its negative consequences in March next year, unless there is a change of heart among our British friends,” he told MEPs.

Quoting the Brexit Secretary, he added: “Wasn’t it David Davis himself who said ‘if a democracy cannot change its mind, it ceases to be a democracy’? We here on the continent haven’t had a change of heart – our hearts are still open to you. Thank you.”

He was immediately backed up by Jean-Claude Juncker, the President of the European Commission.

“President Tusk also made some comments on Brexit, he said that our door remains open. I hope that will be heard clearly in London,” Mr Juncker added.

While I have a lot of sympathy for ordinary leave voters who have changed their minds, or who think that the government is implementing their vote badly, you'd have to be a saint not to gloat about this.

I have slightly less sympathy. Born and bred in the UK with an obviously foreign name, I put up with "banter" at school which disappeared by the time I got to Uni. Since the referendum I - and DS have both been told to "fuck off home" in quite nasty incidents.

I don't mind it for myself - I grew up with it. But I never imagined I'd have to comfort DS over it.

That's before my DFs obsession that he won't be allowed to be buried with my DM.

Palermonese I agree. It's one of the things I'm finding very, very hard to accept with regard to certain elements - very vocal elements - of the Labour Party, who seem to be weighing the racist (and they are racist) 'ordinary Leave voters' against their other constituency - and deciding that Kippy-Labour are worth more.

I don't understand the Russian thing either. If I thought I'd been manipulated into voting a certain way by Russia I'd be livid. But no one seems to care. Leavers seem to blinded by their hate for the EU.

People don't like to believe they can be manipulated. We prefer to think we are too clever for that and that we have free will. You see it in all sorts of other examples from women claiming that shaving their legs has nothing to do with cultural perceptions of female beauty to employers claiming they are not subject to unconscious bias and the reason they have no BAME senior managers is because people from these groups just aren't going for the jobs.

There is no outrage about Russian manipulation from leavers because they just don't believe it could possibly apply to them. Try it, go and present all the evidence for manipulation to any leaver you choose and I guarantee they will tell you that they made their own decision.

I know J.J. Patrick is viewed with scepticism by some but Farage has tried to go to Ireland and this doesn't seem too implausible

IRELAND AN OBVIOUS TARGET FOR RUSSIAN OPERATIONS
www.byline.com/column/67/article/2010

Green party is showing its longevity because the Tories are going all green in the hope that young voters will be attracted by it. Except if green issues are your thing, you just aren't going to vote Tory.

What is the point in UKIP? There is no point unless you are a racist. Tories made them irrelevant.

I see that we could be warming up for Nige's return though. He might well do it, as I don't think the poor love is coping without the attention.

Guy Verhofstadt‏Verified account
@guyverhofstadt
We must formalise the #Brexit withdrawal agreement. Besides the Irish issues, our priority is to get #citizensrights right. Because this is not done yet. We need rock solid guarantees. #EPlenary

Faisal Islam
‏*@faisalislam*
Uh oh. Phase 1 agreement “not done yet” must be “formalised” - this is the argument about the 65ish page legal text that nails down things like “full alignment”...

We prefer to think we are too clever for that

Ah, Dexys ...

These people round here
Wear beaten down eyes sunk
In smoke dried faces
They're so resigned to what their fate is
But not us (no not ever)
But not us (not ever)
We are far too young and clever ...

I don't understand the Russian thing either. If I thought I'd been manipulated into voting a certain way by Russia I'd be livid. But no one seems to care. Leavers seem to blinded by their hate for the EU.

It's not just Russian involvement in the referendum.I can understand that most people feel they were not influenced and made their own decision, many clearly did.Although, it remains possible that propaganda made a sufficient difference to affect the crucial 2%.

What I really don't get is that if some-one is anti- EU, perhaps even a bit paranoid, why aren't they more anti Russia? Why is the EU seen as a threat but Putin is not.Is it all down to proximity?

Some-one may not like the food regulations etc which result from being a member of a huge EU trading block but why wouldn’t they think:

“ Well that regulatory alignment is really annoying and affects our sovereignty, but it’s worth being a member of a bigger group as a fail safe against any Putin incursions ?”

I don’t know if the figures in this report below about military incursions are accurate but surely if you were minded to fear forrriners you would be more worried about this,and less worried about the EU?

I just don’t get why we get fears of Syrian refugees and Turks and fears of brown people and so on, but Russia rarely gets a mention.

henryjacksonsociety.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Foxall-Russia-Military-Incursions_FINAL1.pdf

Rabb busy doing his Lord Haw Haw on Question Time.

He said they (the gov't) dealt the first phase agreement, with the crucial issue of EU nationals, UK expats. And they have moved onto trade talks. I don't think that is true?

It is on camera this time. He claims he was misquoted in the interview DD read out on the show. Everything should be on camera with these chappies.

Like the gaslighting on the Dutch interview by Peter Hoekstra. This is such a perfect example. I know most people have probably seen it. But it is so unscrupulous. The interviewer turns around to the camera because he cannot believe his ears. He did hear Hoekstra say that, didn't he?

www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/us-ambassador-to-netherlands-describes-own-words-as-fake-news-1.3337167

Michael Jackson's song 'smooth criminal' could be an anthem to the strange beasties coming forth today. Necks of brass, without compunction.

Stamps? Bloody hell. Yes, a new flag design will be next in the line of distractions from the latest disaster.

Interesting article that Pain

My instinct would be to be sceptical but then seeing some things that have happened in the US I think it is always worth investigating...

Is it really true that both Sinn Fein and Catalan Independence figures attended a 2016 separatists conference in Moscow. Really? How can we verify this? Who else went...Scotland!? (That's a joke btw.) Surely a meeting like that wouldn't happen in Moscow as it would be too overt and obvious?

"2018 will be a year of agressive expansion for Russian operations and Ireland would do well to take pre-emptive measures, especially as the EU 27 have a greater understanding of the threat than the increasingly despotic UK."

I am now worried that even by talking about this we may disappear.Can we have a system to check that suddenly missing posters are still around in RL?

www.byline.com/column/67/article/2010

Is it as simple as the perception that Russia = not brown/Muslim?

Sorry, was too slow, that was in response to your previous post lonely

What I really don't get is that if some-one is anti- EU, perhaps even a bit paranoid, why aren't they more anti Russia? Why is the EU seen as a threat but Putin is not.Is it all down to proximity?

I think there is a personal impact issue going on. A lot of the anti-eu stuff is very personal. It is about a person owning a house, getting a job, stopping them doing things because of rules and regulations. It was about the impact of people in suits somewhere else stopping the individual doing something or having something they felt was important to them.

Russia is different. It is big and complex and difficult to understand how it impacts on my day to day life. Even if I accept the manipulation issue it maybe meant some people voted in a certain way, but the actual impact on me is not clear at all. So a plane flies into our airspace, but the idea of actual war is pretty unthinkable for most people, so to me right now it means nothing has changed. Russia hacks some stuff, but most people don't really understand what this means and assume someone should probably just do something. Again, they don't see it as having a real impact on their lives and jobs and health.

The genius of the anti-eu rhetoric was that it made it personal. It turned something big and complex into stories about people's everyday fears. Russia is just too nebulous for people to get their heads around and see it as something that applies to them.

That is a really fascinating post, Bigly.

Pain

Maybe the fact that Russia and Putin are not brown or muslim is a significant factor. If so that is very, very depressing.

Putin and co can do what they like, allow torture of gay people in Chechyna, send ships and planes regularly around our coast line, influence referendums in other countries etc.This still won't persuade the electorate that we may be safer as a leading member of an EU group.

Yes an interesting post Bigly. It is almost as if a real threat is too big to contemplate and so doesn't feature.However, a non existent threat can safely be contemplated and unfortunately acted upon.

But the irony is by acting on a non-existent threat we are leaving ourselves isolated and more vulnerable economically and in so many other ways too.

You know, there's (yet another) thread on MN today about caring responsibilities (variation of the "Does your mother help out with childcare?" theme).

It has occurred to me that nationalisation is the Kippy-Labour version of blue stamps. Well, not quite but ... hear me out ...

If you look at MN, one of the huge, absolutely recurrent issues, is the difficulty of balancing care (of children, of parents, of partners, of self) and working for a wage.

That issue isn't going to go away. It's absolutely central to the working lives of many women. It's connected to cut backs in the NHS, and I would say it's connected to Mental Health cutbacks, it's connected to the whole issue of financing the growing elderly population. It's very, very important.

A forward-looking Labour Party, which is taking account of its developing membership (rather than on some paranoid nostalgia trip, partly determined by fear of Kippy-Labour) would be looking seriously at this - have it up front and centre.

But no. Instead we hear a lot about railways and nationalisation.

Perhaps I'm being unfair about that but I can't help but think that it is an indication that political progress, development and innovation in the political realm, has been severely impeded by the impact of Brexit.

Caroline Lucas' article touches upon your points I think bigly, although it's not about why Russia was successful but the personalisation of problems perceived to be caused by the EU

The three-stage plan to stop Brexit

www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2018/01/16/the-three-stage-plan-to-stop-brexit

A successful campaign must show that international solidarity, not isolation, is the best way to curtail the power of the nefarious global elite. It will be the work of many years to turn round these impacts, and to challenge the years of scapegoating of immigrants, but we have to start now by finding genuine joint solutions about people’s very real worries about jobs, pay, schools and housing. Our campaign must also show that EU reform isn't just possible, but a top priority.

Just to add to bigly point, all the talk of Dunkirk spirit and our glorious empire probably leans towards many believing Russia is simply not a threat even in a war scenario. We are Britain after all. We win everything.

I think you are being a bit unfair catfromjapan. Labour have had a policy of providing free childcare since their 2017 manifesto and do talk about it as a serious issue. Sadly it is not something that gets picked up by the press (possibly because it so considered a woman's issue and also ends up in tedious discussions of whether mother's should work, etc...).

Secondly I think the railway nationalisation and rail fares is actually pretty tied up with this issue for a lot of women. Particularly if you have to commute for work. One of the reasons for my career change is because to progress in my previous field I would have had to commute to London. This would have cost so much that any extra income would have been eaten by rail fares and made it impossible to afford to work part-time. The unreliable railways also mean childcare would have been a nightmare.

I'm happy to be told I'm being unfair, bigly.

Guy Verhofstadt
‏*@guyverhofstadt*

Farage's confusion is contagious: Gove doesnt seem to remember that action on plastic bags stems from EU regulation.PM May doesnt seem to know the ban on credit card surcharges is based on EU directive.The recently announced change to British passports was possible inside the EU