Westminstenders: Stuck in the twilightzone

[RedToothBrush]

Just want to remind everyone if what really matters and what the priority if Theresa May is.

May isn't interested in a new referendum. There is barely time to hold one, and anyone remotely interested in one, isn't named Theresa May. Forget it. Its not happening.

Nor are Brexit talks the most important thing. Whilst Jeremy Corbyn seems finally to be playing with some sort if EEA type solution he's not the one named Theresa May. If she doesn't want one, then it won't happen.

May does seem to favour something along these lines but she has to sell it to her party. If she ends up relying on the support of Labour to push it through against what her party want, then that doesn't end well for her or her party. So Corbyn seeming to squeeze her here isn't necessarily a good thing. It could push her to no deal.

Why?

Cos petty party politics.

THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT THING, and don't forget this, is the EU withdrawal Bill. As it stands, May has to concentrate her efforts on this. If it doesn't pass by the art 50 deadline then we have legal chaos. May isn't big on the courts, but I'm not sure she would want that situation either. It would be even more unthinkable than queues at Dover coupled with food shortages.

If it doesn't pass, and the Lords will do all they can to delay and obstruct as long as they can, May's only option is to beg for an art 50 extension. Which the EU might not be inclined to give. Which might leave us in a situation where our only option is to revoke a50.

The only predictable thing, is this will be last minute brinkmanship.

All the talk of a second ref is a distraction. Talk of Labour's position at this point, is all about positioning for the next election and not about Brexit at all.

So try to keep your eyes on what really matters and what battles are May's big ones and which are merely side shows.

I wonder who Side Show Bob will turn out to be.

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
Brexit Secretary David Davis tells Lords Brexit talks will probably not be wrapped up in October
“Push it a little later... last quarter of year..We will not want to sign the withdrawal agreement until we have the substance of the future relationship”.

Oh look, Barnier says October, Davis says later.

The EU said that it sufficient progress deadline was x and we went over that and on to the 11th hour (except the Eu had pretty much given a week extra and the UK ran to Brussels at the 11th hour).

strokes chin

what do we think is going to happen here?

Why does David Davis do that? And - related question - what is the point of David Davis anyway?

Oh wat?

Nig, did an announce and then deny move?

Uh, surely not.

Announce something to please one group, then deny it to please the other.

Carl Gardner @carlgardner
I'm starting to suspect the government, and Brexit itself, could implode before long.

Anyone able to argue the contrary with any level of confidence.

David Davis has more of a point than Liam Fox.

I agree red

And Yugoslavia fell apart in the early 1990s, and unlike Romania this was a place that W Europeans used to go on holiday to.

sorry to hear about your cancelled appointments, cat. Pain is so debilitating and robs your enjoyment of life. Fingers crossed, fourth time lucky.

The Referendum was criminally run, wasn't it?

It just beggars belief from beginning to end. And still. Still it is going from unbelievable to even more incredible. It is a coup. Or something like a coup. What bushels were all these genuises hiding their light under for decades? The backbenches and vested interests' hospitality. Just my jaundiced view.

Balkan Holidays/Balkan Airlines. Had an older cousin who used to regularly holiday in them spots.

But even western/central Europe before and 'tween the wars. The veneer of civilization was/is so thin and can be scraped away so easily.

Or was it Balkan Tours?

The veneer of civilization was/is so thin and can be scraped away so easily.

Which of course, leads us back to why the EU eventually came into being.

I'm so sorry you're suffering like this, cat
Disgraceful that NHS waiting lists have been allowed (deliberately ?) to be so long.

cat I hope your fourth appointment comes soon and remains uncancelled.

Thanks, my dears. I really hope it does come through this time.

Did you all catch the thread about the struck-off doctor? It was a horrifying insight into the state of the NHS. It made me feel desperate for a change of direction for us all.

GRIM prospects, but excellent analysis by Peter Kellner on UK problems to enable trade post-Brexit

https://edition.independent.co.uk/editions/uk.co.independent.issue.290118/data/8182261/index.html

What if the UK agrees “a” customs union agreement with the EU, like Turkey?
This will not solve the Irish border problem.
The border between Turkey and its EU neighbour, Bulgaria, is far from open.
It has customs checks and a three-metre fence topped with razor wire.

Nor does the arrangement give Turkey unfettered access to markets in countries such as Canada, Korea and, prospectively, Japan.
Indeed, the relationship is asymmetrical.

Turkey’s agreement with the EU requires it to accept EU-wide tariffs and free trade rules for importing goods from the rest of the world
– but as it does not belong to “the” customs union, the rest of the world is free to impose WTO tariffs on goods their citizens import from Turkey.

Imagine a post-Brexit future in which the UK had a similar agreement:

forced to allow Korean and Japanese cars into Britain duty free,
but facing the competitive disadvantage of a tariff wall when trying to sell British cars to the Far East.

Here’s the rub.
To have a no-change transition, let alone a bright long-term future for British jobs and investment, we need not just “a” customs union agreement with the EU.

We – together with the EU – need to amend every agreement between the EU and other countries such as Canada, Korea and Japan.

This process will entail around 80 triangular negotiations, requiring approval in each case by the UK, the EU and the country in question – and all within the next few months.

Problem for non-EU countries if they allow the UK to continue with their EU FTAs:

even if countries like e.g. Canada were to allow the UK to continue in CETA after Brexit, as an act of kindness,
countries with which Canada^ don't have FTAs currently would be entitled under WTO rules^ to ask Canada to extend to them the same privileges that UK was granted

Yes, I read the doctor thread, cat

Seems she was convicted after evidence about the NHS resources issue was kept away from the jury

• they didn't know the important background which made it clear this was just a tragedy waiting to happen, whichever doctor happened to be there at the time.

She was a scapegoat.
I don't know if being a woman of colour with a headscarf affected that decision, but it certainly caused horrid comments btl on the Heil report.

She received a 2-year suspended sentence - after which the GMC pretty much had to strike her off

cat

Did you all catch the thread about the struck-off doctor
www.independent.co.uk/news/health/bawa-garba-legal-funding-junior-doctors-money-raise-six-year-old-death-gmc-hadiza-bawagarba-jack-a8183521.html
The junior doctors were right 2 years ago.

I've been to Bosnia, Croatia and Serbia numerous times in the last ten years.

The divisions are very much still there bubbling beneath the surface.

Sarajevo has to be one of the most amazing and best places I've visited. But the bullet holes in buildings and the poorly repaired artillery holes in tower blocks are something of a reminder of a very recent past.

As for Belgrade. It must have been beautiful once. Its now hugely run down after years of sanctions. The Nazi books in pride of place in the book shop window were something. There were numerous other signs of far right and nationalism. Its also one of the places I've been made to feel most welcome visiting. Lovely friendly people who were the total opposite to the far right types and were firmly pro-eu.

I've walked up Srđ hill that overlooks Dubrovnik which even though its a UNESCO site bares the scars of the war. Its a steep and difficult walk we struggled with on a warm day as its totally exposed. Yet they did it daily, as it was strategic point to defend the city. I've also seen a significant amount nasty far right football related graffiti in another tourist town in Croatia, which is rather poignant.

All three countries are utterly beautiful in very different ways. But you don't have to look far to see, that it wouldn't take much - particularly in the ethic serb part of Bosnia - for it to inflame again.

Indeed its my understanding that there is growing tension and problems brewing in Bosnia and Serbia.

That said, I would HIGHLY recommend Bosnia as a holiday destination.

(Oh and guess who was funding rebuilding in both Bosnia and Serbia. I'll give you a clue: little yellow stars)

Bloody love that part of the world. It defies your expectations and challenges your prejudices and asks you to examine your understanding of propaganda.

Legatum bigwigs buy Maltese - i.e. EU - citizenship

That'a founder Christopher Chandler, chief executive Mark Stoleson, various family members

Their lives will continue as normal.
Brexit hardship is for the peasants

I wonder which Leaver / Brexiter MPs and MEPs have protected themselves similarly

I suppose Farage may yet be refused German citizenship - but his pal Trump could grant him US citizenship or at least an open-ended leave to stay.

http://www.independent.com.mt/articles/2018-01-29/local-news/Malta-provides-Brexit-backer-with-Maltese-EU-citizenship-FT-6736184199

Individuals can obtain a Maltese passport under the scheme, in return for €650,000 to the national development fund, the purchase or lease of property and investment of at least €150,000 in stocks and bonds.
For family members an additional fee of €25,000 to €50,000 per person.

BuzzFeed UK Politics@BuzzFeedUKPol

Here’s a leaked WhatsApp chat showing Tory leaders' confusion over one of their key Brexit demands…

< leaving the Customs Union - they seem unsćlear what the CU is >

So are we getting to the point yet where the majority of people (Remainers and Ultras) are unhappy with the proffered solution/ outcome? Thereby outnumbering the Soft Middles who may end up with something they could tolerate... At what point do we see sense, band together and agree to call the whole thing off?

So are we getting to the point yet where the majority of people (Remainers and Ultras) are unhappy with the proffered solution/ outcome? Thereby outnumbering the Soft Middles who may end up with something they could tolerate... At what point do we see sense, band together and agree to call the whole thing off?

Do you know anyone who is happy?

As in, anyone who has a clue about what is going on, rather than someone who is blissfully ignorant in their Brexit knowledge.

Red. Anyone who knows about it must surely be unhappy. That's the entire trouble though, isn't it? The majority are unaware of what's happening.

"Those who know about it" -unfortunately doesn't yet include Brexit Ultras and the ERG, probably not yet most MPs.

Hence Nadine Dorries WhatsAppimg to ask what the Customs Union is / means / does
Just one step on from Googling "what is the EU ?" the day after the EU Referendum