Westminstenders: Stuck in the twilightzone

[RedToothBrush]

Just want to remind everyone if what really matters and what the priority if Theresa May is.

May isn't interested in a new referendum. There is barely time to hold one, and anyone remotely interested in one, isn't named Theresa May. Forget it. Its not happening.

Nor are Brexit talks the most important thing. Whilst Jeremy Corbyn seems finally to be playing with some sort if EEA type solution he's not the one named Theresa May. If she doesn't want one, then it won't happen.

May does seem to favour something along these lines but she has to sell it to her party. If she ends up relying on the support of Labour to push it through against what her party want, then that doesn't end well for her or her party. So Corbyn seeming to squeeze her here isn't necessarily a good thing. It could push her to no deal.

Why?

Cos petty party politics.

THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT THING, and don't forget this, is the EU withdrawal Bill. As it stands, May has to concentrate her efforts on this. If it doesn't pass by the art 50 deadline then we have legal chaos. May isn't big on the courts, but I'm not sure she would want that situation either. It would be even more unthinkable than queues at Dover coupled with food shortages.

If it doesn't pass, and the Lords will do all they can to delay and obstruct as long as they can, May's only option is to beg for an art 50 extension. Which the EU might not be inclined to give. Which might leave us in a situation where our only option is to revoke a50.

The only predictable thing, is this will be last minute brinkmanship.

All the talk of a second ref is a distraction. Talk of Labour's position at this point, is all about positioning for the next election and not about Brexit at all.

So try to keep your eyes on what really matters and what battles are May's big ones and which are merely side shows.

I wonder who Side Show Bob will turn out to be.

If my memory of history is correct, the Tory split under Peel led to the moderate ones joining what was the Whig party and forming the Liberals.

Didn't the 2010 Downing St. garden love-in between DC and NC show that ideologically, LibDems (who I can recall as "the Alliance") are closer to Conservatives than Labour ? I agree with Dave/I agree with Nick.

Labours clear blue water with Conservatism (used to be) the state-ownership of everything, after the Marxist idea of the workers owning the means of production.

"Liberals" (and presumably LibDems) aren't so dogmatic, and are quite comfortable with private enterprise.

It's probably my inability to go any further in expounding the differences which explains why the LibDems aren't doing as well as they should ??????????????

" So many professions use a degree requirement as a means of weeding out bright and capable applicants who just couldn’t afford university.

Can't speak for anyone else but I don't use academic qualifications as a sole measure of ability to do the job, and have stood by that when recruiting people."

You only need to look at the various job advertisements for professional positions to see my point. Degrees are stated as being required, regardless of whether or not they are actually necessary.

@IanDunt
Soubry: "When will the govt stand up to the hard Brexiteers - there are only about 35 of them"

Bill Cash has finally figured out what's going on and is losing his shit www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/b99ce24b-7d37-4792-b808-3c5ffd9e741a …

Ian @IanDunt
Bill Cash has finally figured out what's going on and is losing his shit

Ian Dunt @IanDunt
Soubry: "When will the govt stand up to the hard Brexiteers - there are only about 35 of them"

David Allen Green @davidallengreen
Here are the EU directives for the transition deal.

Far more reliable guide as to what will happen than anything which will come Whitehall or Westminster.

From EU perspective: not set in stone, but not far off. Some wiggle-room, but not much.

For a process which is supposedly about "taking back control" the UK will continue to leave the EU on terms as prescribed by the EU.

UK has rarely seemed so powerless.

Paragraphs 15 to 18 of the EU27 Brexit directives reveal the stark position of UK during transition. Read the paragraphs carefully.

A vassal state.

www.consilium.europa.eu/media/32504/xt21004-ad01re02en18.pdf

Well.

And the UK cannot now freely "walk away" without being in breach of the undertakings given in the December joint report, and that would send an adverse signal to any other potential negotiating partner. UK cannot renege easily.

UK now locked in.

This is 15 - 18

15. During the transition period, and in line with the European Council guidelines of 29 April 2017, the United Kingdom should remain bound by the obligations stemming from the agreements concluded by the Union, or by Member States acting on its behalf, or by the Union and its Member States acting jointly, while the United Kingdom should however no longer participate in any bodies set up by those agreements.

16. In line with the European Council guidelines of 15 December 2017, any transitional arrangements require the United Kingdom's continued participation in the Customs Union and the Single Market (with all four freedoms) during the transition. The United Kingdom should take all necessary measures to preserve the integrity of the Single Market and of the Customs Union. The United Kingdom should continue to comply with the Union trade policy. It should also in particular ensure that its customs authorities continue to act in accordance with the mission of EU customs authorities including by collecting Common Customs Tariff duties and by performing all checks required under Union law at the border vis-à-vis other third countries. During the transition period, the United Kingdom may not become bound by international agreements entered into in its own capacity in the fields of competence of Union law, unless authorised to do so by the Union.

17. In line with the European Council guidelines of 29 April 2017 and the first set of negotiating directives of 22 May 2017, any time-limited prolongation of the Union acquis requires existing Union regulatory, budgetary, supervisory, judiciary and enforcement instruments and structures to apply, including the competence of the Court of Justice of the European Union.

18. In relation to the application of the Union acquis to the United Kingdom, the Withdrawal Agreement should therefore, during the transition period, preserve the full competences of the Union institutions (in particular the full jurisdiction of the Court of Justice of the European Union), bodies, offices and agencies in relation to the United Kingdom and to United Kingdom natural or legal persons. In particular, Union institutions, bodies and agencies should conduct all supervision and control proceedings foreseen by Union law. In line with the European Council guidelines of 15 December 2017, the United Kingdom will however no longer participate in or nominate or elect members of the Union institutions, nor participate in the decision-making or the governance of the Union bodies, offices and agencies.

@davidallengreen
Crikey

Are the Lib Dems closer to the Conservatives than Labour? Hmm, as an LD, I have never voted Tory and can't imagine ever doing so, but have once voted Labour. This does very much depend on who the Labour candidate is.

Both the Tories and Labour have a similar problem - they have a core of older voters who support Leave and they don't want to alienate them.

BBC News (UK) @BBCNews
'UK will stay in single market during transition period' - Michel Barnier, European Chief Negotiator

Nick Gutteridge @nick_gutteridge
Barnier dismisses idea of UK getting to vet new EU rules during transition: 'Single market a la carte is not possible, certainly not during the transition period.'

Harry Cole @MrHarryCole
Sir Edward Leigh calls it BINO - Brexit In Name Only, but some colleagues have been using BrINO. This is going to get annoying...

Pete North @PeteNorth303
So the vassal state transition is everything I expected it to be. 2-5 years of the status quo with no voice. That's what hard Brexiters get for rubbishing the Norway option. Congrats. Here's what you've won...

And now we all get to moan about these EU laws imposed on the UK. Only this time its true!

Are the Lib Dems closer to the Conservatives than Labour?
Well they were closer with Cameron's Tories than Corbyn's Labour or May's Tories. But then at one point they were considered by some to be to the left of New Labour.

Jennifer Rankin @JenniferMerode
Michel Barnier rejects suggestion Brexit talks can run until end of year: "We can’t go too close to the end of the year." EU is aiming for end of October to finalise text before ratification.

Faisal Islam‏ @faisalislam
BArnier says that Transition will include all new rules established during the period... take part in SM & CU... bound by all third party trade agreements, incl aviation, but this also a matter for those countries
“Status quo transition without institutional representation”n says Barnier
“Sufficient progress” is not full progress - got to translate Phase 1 into legal language, other areas - public procurement, data, intellectual property, governance of the Withdrawal Agreement... it’s all a big package, without agreement on all issues there will be no transition
“Single market a la carte is not possible and certainly not during a transition period requested by the UK” says Barnier
“Regulatory divergence should become a means of dumping” says Barnier.. “but we very much need the UK to state its positions”
“We’re not beginning the debate on future relations with the UK.
Today I’ve received a mandate to negotiate. Transition period - its a specific element” says Barnier.
^“Negotiating a future relationship will occur after March European Council, assuming they have set out what they want,” says Barnier
Responding to Davis saying deadline is December?^
Barnier:
We have to work on some high quality legal texts - an international agreement on an orderly withdrawal and transition, then subject to ratification...Then a political declaration on future relationship, not a treaty...
Barnier says working to October - as needs time for ratification across EU27 and UK PArliament...
Barnier: no agreement with a third country can be implemented in transition by the UK without the EU27

What would be really hilarious at this point in response to tax without representation would be a compromise in which we can vote and be represented post Brexit. So we'd have to take part in EU elections.

Then BINO would be complete.

Adam Ramsay @AdamRamsay
At least six Tory ministers appear to have broken the ministerial code by being members of Jacob Rees-Mogg's European Research Group:
www.opendemocracy.net/uk/adam-ramsay/tory-ministers-taxpayer-cash-hard-Brexit-erg

A number of Cabinet members appear to have breached the rules of government through their membership of a secretive hard-Brexit lobby group, now chaired by the outspoken government critic Jacob-Rees Mogg, openDemocracy can reveal today.

Senior Conservative ministers including Sajid Javid, Andrea Leadsom, Penny Mordaunt and David Gauke have used taxpayers’ cash to fund the hard-Brexit European Research Group (ERG), which is now led by Rees-Mogg MP, who has been accused in recent days of trying to undermine Prime Minister Theresa May and oust her Chancellor, Philip Hammond.

The ministers have funded this lobby group (through their expense claims) whilst holding posts in government – despite the ministerial code prohibiting ministers from becoming “associated with non-public organisations whose objectives may in any degree conflict with government policy”.

openDemocracy has also uncovered new evidence that a number of other key figures in government – including Brexit ministers Steve Baker and Suella Fernandes – have remained active in the ERG after taking on government posts, and that the senior whip Chris Heaton-Harris has hosted meetings for them inside parliament.

A government spokesperson has denied that there has been any breach of the rules. But a number of Labour and SNP MPs have now called on the parliamentary authorities to “urgently investigate” the matter, with former Foreign office minister Chris Bryant calling it a “clear conflict of interest”; Caroline Lucas labelling the findings “deeply concerning” and the SNP’s Deirdre Brock asking, “What kind of shameless opportunist would be supporting their colleagues in public while betraying them in private?”

Adam Ramsay @AdamRamsay
And, for those asking, here's our speadsheet of MPs who have paid subs to the European Research Group since 2010, including any ministerial posts held at the time:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1U7Rg9EFgLAuQD7Etu7e6Mna9tPmLwSf1-v3m2Boyer4/edit#gid=987927730
#brexitdarkmoney

“What kind of shameless opportunist would be supporting their colleagues in public while betraying them in private?”

A robber; a brigand; a tóraidhe ?

Well.

That's pretty clear.

We're paying a lot of money and taking a huge hit to the economy to lose power.

This is, frankly, a calamity. As David Cameron (pretty much) said, it could be worse. It's not food shortages, stopped planes and troops on the street keeping order. But that's a low bar.

The actual, real situation should be spelled out, in simple language, for every person in the UK. It should be spelled out in Parliament, by an Opposition holding the government to account for a truly disastrous economic and political decision.

David Cameron should be excoriated for having unleashed such a shocking - genuinely shocking - situation and future position for the UK. Teresa May should be excoriated for pursuing this outcome, rather than taking the statesmanlike decision to explain to the UK that the consequences are appalling. And they ARE appalling. Sure, it's not food riots - but this position would have been unthinkable three years ago. It's an utter disgrace and outrage that this has happened.

But there won't be spelling out, and there won't be a concerted Opposition attack. The UK is entering the most extraordinary economic and political position, propelled there by a Parliamentary minority and a quite bizarre Referendum result.

It really is unbelievable. And very sad, actually.

I'm not sure I'd mind BINO. I'd love legislation to permit representation.

However, I'm not seeing that here, not yet.

I also fear that the transition period is a hostage to fortune, and we'll see a continuation of Tory in-fighting during that period - and a series of let-downs (and alarms) by the Corbyn-Little-Britain group. Hope I'm proved wrong about that last prediction.

Schroedingers Brexit ...

One side can claim we are out, the other that we are in, and the Great British Public won't know which way to vote - thus rendering them impotent and irrelevant. Imagine a succession of General elections that never managed to return more than 313 MPs of any single party.

We have always been at war with Oceania.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/gibraltar-brexit-veto-theresa-may-eu-deal-terms-chief-minister-fabian-picardo-spain-border-a8183946.html
Gibraltar can veto parts of Brexit deal it doesn't like, chief minister says
Exclusive: Fabian Picardo tells The Independent a clause in Gibraltar's constitution gives it the right to choose its own terms for things like trade tariffs and regulations - whatever Ms May agrees with Brussels - in a move that could embolden other regions calling for bespoke deals

Section 47(3) of the constitution gives its leadership autonomy in a range of policy areas, including those relating to business and social care, which could see it set different tariffs and regulations for its important financial services sector, for example.

He said: “It is clear that we do have a Brexit veto for Gibraltar, in Gibraltar.

Shall we piss our pants laughing at the absurdity of this (and how this makes arriving at a deal even harder).

Its not about what WE want, its about what's on offer from the EU. There is no negotiation. Its a take it or leave it offer from the EU. There is no bespoke deal.

It's a grim laugh, though, isn't it, Red?

It's kind of validating but also awful to be proved so right.

The Referendum was criminally run, wasn't it? I find it truly saddening that there is no capacity to bring criminal charges against people like Boris Johnson.

I find it truly saddening that there is no capacity to bring criminal charges against people like Boris Johnson.

who might ruminate on the fact that if the will of the people can't be delivered legitimately, it might well be delivered illegitimately.

My DF heard many stories from returning partisans about seeing Mussolinis corpse dangling from a petrol station. And PPs have mentioned it's only as recent as 1989 that the Romanians dished out some mob rule. (Obviously Gaddaffis fate is even more recent, but the Middle East seems more remote to some that Europe. Bearing in mind Romania is in the EU now).

Jon Worth‏ @jonworth
1/ The more I think about it, the more the way eu has manoeuvred uk on #Brexit transition is masterful.
2/ In the immediate aftermath of the referendum, debate in UK revolved around WHEN #Article50 would be triggered, not consequences of doing so. EU could live with UK triggering in March 2017, as that gets UK out before EP elections 2019.
3/ Having triggered, uk wasted time with an early election, and then by time May made her Florence speech in September, even she realised time was short. Hence transition.
4/ But both UK and Eu want to avoid a transition into transition and a transition out of transition. So UK had to quickly conceed transition needs to look as much like being in EU as possible.
5/ Again there was an alignment of convenience on timing - May's "around two years" became "by the end of December 2020", lining up transition end with EU budget financial perspectives.
6/ Then it has taken from December's summit until today's release of the transition guidelines for everyone to really realise what transition is going to mean for UK : it makes itself a vassal state. Meanwhile the EU-27 stand united on the issue.
7/ Plus this is not even the Norway option on offer in transition - it is worse than that for UK - it has no representation whatsoever in anything in EU for at least 21 months.
8/ But what can the UK do now?
9/ Walk away from talks? But then we're back at No Deal Brexit, which even Davis and May seem to have realised is a catastrophe. That threat is not serious. Walk out now, with 14 months of Article 50 to go, and that'll cause panic.
10/ Go through with transition? To do so on these terms puts UK in a remarkably weak position vis à vis EU . Surely unacceptable to Tories. EU gets what it wants if UK tries this.
11/ Or attempt some other solution - either grovel to rest of EU to extend #Article50 instead, as it is less painful? Or withdraw the Article 50 notification? These options are also for Tories.
12/ This has been very well handled by @michelbarnier @WeyandSabine @StefaanDeRynck and team, and how they've kept -EU27 on board.
13/ UK has been manoeuvred into a position where it has to choose very soon on transition, all options are tricky, and forcing this sort of choice now, rather than in the autumn is a very good call by . #Brexit is about to get even more [fire icon] /ends

David Allen Green @davidallengreen
Spot-on thread, do read to end.

Brexit by timetable, as someone described it last year.

The die was cast when a50 was triggered.

This was obvious in March before it happened. But those Brexiteers HAD to do it.

It's a grim laugh, though, isn't it, Red?

Indeed. Its a 'I told you so' laugh or 'laughing like a drain, as David Allen Green' likes to do.

He's been spot on throughout. The only thing he's really be out on is, he thought we wouldn't be stupid enough to trigger a50...

DGRossetti I think that's the most shocking thing I've seen you write!!! You're usually so measured!!

I'm completely persuaded to the view that it's my duty to protect and defend the centreground after the ravages of extremism - but I have to say ... I'm cross again!

Honestly, I think I shouldn't have posted my negative post,. We all deserve to laugh a little. And to be a bit happy that Totally Off-The-Wall Brexit has (at least temporarily) been shelved ... hopefully ....

I'm a bit down today because my hospital consultation - for the horrible, ongoing pain I have - has been cancelled yet again. I'm now waiting for my fourth appointment. Or rather, the fourth date for my first appointment. I feel a bit down - and the impact of this government, austerity, and future Brexit-cutbacks on the NHS just seems horribly, horribly immediate to me.

You can see why he might be wrong on that, though, Red.

What sensible person could possibly have imagined that we would be stupid enough to trigger A50? It was clearly an act of inconceivable folly and you would have to be either unutterably cynical or quite foolish to think it was something the leader of a country would actually do.

And to be a bit happy that Totally Off-The-Wall Brexit has (at least temporarily) been shelved ... hopefully ....

Why did Nig decide to back another ref?

I am not of the opinion, that crazy Brexit is off the cards yet.

cat.

DGRossetti shock I think that's the most shocking thing I've seen you write!!! You're usually so measured

My blushes ...

At least I'm blessed that I can express myself - albeit clumsily at times - in measured debate. People who can't - for whatever reason - have to find other ways to be heard.

Why did Nig decide to back another ref?

Did he ?

www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage-backtracks-on-call-for-second-referendum-and-calls-it-fake-news-a3751816.html

Apparently not ...