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Brexit

Westminstenders: Stuck in the twilightzone

956 replies

RedToothBrush · 14/01/2018 23:37

Just want to remind everyone if what really matters and what the priority if Theresa May is.

May isn't interested in a new referendum. There is barely time to hold one, and anyone remotely interested in one, isn't named Theresa May. Forget it. Its not happening.

Nor are Brexit talks the most important thing. Whilst Jeremy Corbyn seems finally to be playing with some sort if EEA type solution he's not the one named Theresa May. If she doesn't want one, then it won't happen.

May does seem to favour something along these lines but she has to sell it to her party. If she ends up relying on the support of Labour to push it through against what her party want, then that doesn't end well for her or her party. So Corbyn seeming to squeeze her here isn't necessarily a good thing. It could push her to no deal.

Why?

Cos petty party politics.

THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT THING, and don't forget this, is the EU withdrawal Bill. As it stands, May has to concentrate her efforts on this. If it doesn't pass by the art 50 deadline then we have legal chaos. May isn't big on the courts, but I'm not sure she would want that situation either. It would be even more unthinkable than queues at Dover coupled with food shortages.

If it doesn't pass, and the Lords will do all they can to delay and obstruct as long as they can, May's only option is to beg for an art 50 extension. Which the EU might not be inclined to give. Which might leave us in a situation where our only option is to revoke a50.

The only predictable thing, is this will be last minute brinkmanship.

All the talk of a second ref is a distraction. Talk of Labour's position at this point, is all about positioning for the next election and not about Brexit at all.

So try to keep your eyes on what really matters and what battles are May's big ones and which are merely side shows.

I wonder who Side Show Bob will turn out to be.

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RedToothBrush · 27/01/2018 22:42

Liam Young @ liamyoung
Extraordinary Sunday Times front page: 'Cabinet minister vowed to launch "suicide bombing" resignation demanding that May stand down if colleagues quit; Two former cabinet ministers and eight young Tory MPs submit no confidence letters'.

When were these letters submitted? Are they part of the ones the Sun talked about earlier this week, or are they two of the ones thought to be going in this weekend plus six others. And have any been withdrawn?

Graham Brady was supposed to be on holiday this week so a couple of people who wanted to withdraw couldn't.

Will we wake up to news tomorrow or monday that the magic 48 have been reached?

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BigChocFrenzy · 27/01/2018 22:50

(paywall) British officials in secret discussions with Brussels to extend Brexit transition period to almost three years

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/01/26/british-officials-secret-discussions-brussels-extend-brexit/

British officials are in discussions with Brussels about extending the Brexit transition period to almost three years, The Telegraph has learnt.

The official Government target for transition is “around two years”
but many senior Whitehall officials remain privately concerned about the practicality of such a short transition,
given potentially massive changes that would be required by a “hard” Brexit.

The Telegraph understands that although it is not formally Government policy,
Britain has discreetly begun sounding out senior EU figures over whether transition could be extended
amid growing disarray within the Cabinet over the ultimate terms of a long-term deal with the EU.

BigChocFrenzy · 27/01/2018 23:22

Shufle Chaos:Weak Theresa May is harming Brexit because she has to keep moving her ministers, says damning report
(by The Institute for Government)

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5422057/weak-theresa-may-is-harming-brexit-because-she-has-to-keep-moving-her-ministers-says-damning-report/

85 of the 122 ministers across government are new in their postt^since the General Election. < that's since only last June >

Only two ministers at the crucial Department for Exiting the EU have stayed in place since July 2016.
Yesterday Brexit Secretary David Davis revealed 44 per cent of his department’s staff plan to leave it in the next year.

Every minister in the Cabinet Office and three-quarters of those in the Ministry of Justice were replaced in the January 2018 reshuffle.
The Justice and Culture departments are each on their sixth secretary of state since 2010, while there have been five Work and Pensions Secretaries since 2016.

RedToothBrush · 27/01/2018 23:40

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/01/27/ministers-watering-brexit-bill-avoid-lords-defeat/amp/?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter&__twitter_impression=true
Ministers watering down Brexit bill to avoid Lords defeat

What a huge surprise.

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DGRossetti · 28/01/2018 10:38

Weak Theresa May is harming Brexit

I wonder if in the years to come, Traitor Theresa will be Mays moniker, as Brexiteers look back and realise that it was losing the Tory majority which forged the coffin nails of their Brexit.

Because it's starting to look like that is the single defining moment that "shaped" (in as much as something as amorphous as Brexit can be described as having a shape) Brexit - or the lack thereof.

Hmm
BigChocFrenzy · 28/01/2018 11:12

imo, the defining reasons for no Brexit / BINO / crash Brexit are:

  • no plan
  • because the very different kinds of Leavers have aims which are totally incompatible

Given that, Brexit was never going to go smoothly, even if May had been brilliantly talented instead of a waffling 3rd-rater.

DGRossetti · 28/01/2018 11:22

To be honest I wasn't really bothered about the truth of the allegation. Just wondering if it's one narrative that will be spun.

If there's one part of UK history that is going to be as far from any "truth" as possible, it will be 2016-20??

BigChocFrenzy · 28/01/2018 11:25

and angry Leavers / Brexiters will be moaning "we were robbed of our glorious Brexit by a conspiracy of elite lefties / liberals / furrin / ..."

Many have feelings of victimhood anyway, even those who have done very well out of the system - they think they should be top dogs; anything other than the highest privilege is a conspiracy to wipe out their values and oppress them

Peregrina · 28/01/2018 13:54

Because [June 2017 election]'s starting to look like that is the single defining moment that "shaped" (in as much as something as amorphous as Brexit can be described as having a shape) Brexit - or the lack thereof.

I agree with this. If she had won her 100 seat majority last June, she would have been able to go ahead with the hard Brexit plans beloved of her right wing. There might have been some claim to legitimacy in that reflected by the public returning so many extra Tory MPs. As it stands, by not winning outright and being shored up by a party which no one in England, Wales or Scotland could even vote for, she has hamstrung herself.

I won't be shedding any tears for her - so many of her problems are of her own making.

BiglyBadgers · 28/01/2018 14:23

Yup, I also agree Peregrina and DG. The election was the worse decision May made and everything has really fallen apart from there.

Peregrina · 28/01/2018 14:38

And May can only blame herself for calling the election - not 'the will of the people', not a Cabinet decision. Purely done, because she thought it would be a chance to finish Labour off.

Rdoo · 28/01/2018 14:57

DGRossetti

Did anyone catch R4 this morning, just before 9am ?
They were interviewing the Irish Taosiach (I spelled that from memory).
What a well briefed, intelligent, reasonable and personable man

It's 'Taoiseach' but you were close Smile
That's 'our Leo' alright, enjoying very high approval ratings in Ireland at the minute.
I'm Irish but living in England and unfortunately have to make do with the idiots running the show here.

DGRossetti · 28/01/2018 17:17

Speaking of coffin nails, here's Trump hammering another one in:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-42850362/trump-i-would-have-taken-a-tougher-stand-in-getting-out

TheElementsSong · 28/01/2018 18:41

they think they should be top dogs; anything other than the highest privilege is a conspiracy to wipe out their values and oppress them

THIS exactly!

HesterThrale · 28/01/2018 19:29

A random aside: I've been watching 'Miriam's Big American Adventure' on BBC1. It's very good. But the episode this week was shocking. Do they not have 'incitement to racial hatred' or hate speech laws in the States? This alt-right leader was quite happy to be filmed saying the most revolting things. He wouldn't even go in the same room as Miriam because she's Jewish.
Watch on iplayer from 24:40 to 29:02. Godwin's Law stuff.

www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b09ld9wc

BigChocFrenzy · 28/01/2018 19:34

Long, but this kind of MP & Lords sleaze is IMPORTANT

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/andrew-lansley-peter-lilley-and-andrew-mitchell-ride-brexit-gravy-train-mgh6c2z28

Former cabinet ministers have been exposed attempting to profit from a new cash for Brexit gravy train in Westminster,**
following an undercover investigation.

Lord Lansley, the former health secretary, was secretly filmed
offering to use his knowledge and connections from within Westminster to provide “intelligence” on Brexit to a Chinese company offering him tens of thousands of poundsds_.* 

The peer, who has previously been accused of “ripping the heart” out of a bill to regulate lobbying
showed he was willing to pick up information from a key Brexitt_ cabinet minister.

He advised how the deal could be kept secret from the authorities by employing him through his wife’s company.

(paywall)Why we need to hold our politicians to account

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/why-we-need-to-hold-our-politicians-to-account-qz2j9twl5

Nature abhors a vacuum but it is a nice little earner for politicians.  

Our Insight team, sparked by reports that Brexit had led to a lobbying frenzy,
has spent months unravelling
the web of access, intelligence and influence enabling senior politicians to exploit their connections for personal gain.

Former cabinet ministers appear to have fallen short of the standards reflected in the Nolan principles governing conduct in public life.

we withheld publication of our investigation on compassionate grounds as we were preparing to go to press.
At the disruptive time of 4.30pm last Saturday a public relations spokesman for Lord Lansley delivered a “confidential” letter from his cancer specialist about his medical treatment.

The Sunday Times felt it would be improper to rush ahead with publication in the circumstances.
We concluded that the humane decision was to pause and consider the implications of the letter from Lord Lansley’s doctor, in consultation with Channel 4.

Some of the politicians named in our investigation felt no such constraint, thereby reinfor­cing our decision to publish today.

Making use of allegations that we had put to them so they could have a fair oppor­tunity to reply, information was leaked about our inquiries to another Sunday newspaper in a bid to put the best possible gloss on their behaviour.

As part of this attempt at spin, we understand that the “confidential” medical letter was also presen­ted to other media in anticipation of criticising The Sunday Times as ­heartless and reckless had we ignored its ­contents and gone to press.

Because we behaved compassionately, the politicians’ behaviour has been revealed in an even starker light.

Lord Lansley, Andrew Mitchell and Peter Lilley pulled every lever at their disposal to present themselves favourably. 

Mr Mitchell hinted that he had called upon the services of MI5   to investigate what he had suspected was a “bogus” consultancy firm.

Lord Lansley said that he had referred himself to the House of Lords commissioner for standards, the anti-sleaze watchdog, and expected his name to be cleared.
Mr Lilley complained to Channel 4 executives and also contacted Ofcom.

Readers now have the chance to judge the politicians’ behaviour for themselves.
Does it conform to the standards the ­public expects as set out in the Nolan princi­ples?

Lord Lansley told our undercover reporters representing a fictional Chinese company that
he knew the prime minister and international trade secretary Liam Fox well  
and that he could guide the company’s representatives and make introductions to the “right person”.  

He also suggested that payment for his services could be made through his wife’s company in a move to keep it off the parliamen­tary register.  

Mr Lilley, a former trade and industry secretary, revealed that he belonged to a private group advising Dr Fox.  

Mr Mitchell, the MP for Sutton Coldfield, said he was already advising clients on Brexit
but appeared interested in further work at a daily rate of £6,000   < me too ! >
He claimed: “My constituents don’t mind what I’m paid.”   < really ? >

The politicians in our Cash for Brexit investigation attempted to scupper our reporting using remedies not available to the general public.

They are not alone.
Gavin Williamson, the recently appointed defence secretary, is under pressure over the tactics that he used to divert attention away from newspaper inquiries that he had an extramarital “flirtation” before entering politics.

Those tactics an ­interview about the affair with a friendly newspaper and a diversionary interview with another in which he is now accused of leaking classified information appear to have backfired 

As you can see today, the Cash for Brexit politicians did not silence us.

But MPs and peers have long engaged in attempts to suppress press revelations about their ­behaviour.

This has led in recent weeks to the emergence of a new threat to the ­freedom of the press.

Earlier this month the House of Lords, where peers came under fire during the expenses scandal, voted by 238 to 209 to amend a data protection bill with the aim of opening a new public inquiry into the conduct of the media.

The bill will soon be voted on by MPs who have a vested ­interest in suppressing the investigative journalism
that is exemplified by the Insight team.

Politicians do not like scrutiny.

Last week MPs voted against the appointment to the Electoral Commission board of Sir Ian Kennedy,
a former Independent Par­li­a­mentary Standards Authority watch­dog appoin­ted to oversee them in the wake of the expenses scandal.

No doubt many ­current and former politicians would love to see a relaxation of the Nolan principles,
to which we would say: let them try that out on the public. < but have the public even heard of Nolan ?>

As it is, all too often ­politicians who break their own rules get away with a slap on the wrist.

borntobequiet · 28/01/2018 20:09

Andrew Lansley whose botched "reforms" so damaged the NHS?
FFS.

RedToothBrush · 28/01/2018 20:25

Laura Kuennsberg @ bbclaurak
This was situation at the end of the week, over the weekend it's got worse for the Tories - dangerous talk for the PM has got louder since then..... 'something has to give - it's probably Theresa'
www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-42827278?__twitter_impression=true
Tories' Brexit agonies resurface

Laura Kuennsberg @ bbclaurak
There is nothing, repeat, nothing, inevitable, about what happens next to the Tory leadership. May has been in deep trouble before + pulled it back, but it is also possible to see how it all combusts
Because Leadsom pulled out of original contest Tories never had post referendum reckoning that could have cauterised divisions - May's tenure has been a sticking plaster, more or less containing the party, a near impossible job - still there is no agreement on who might do better
Anyway, with EU guidelines out tomorrow, Brexit transition talks getting under way, v restive backbenches, and PM out of the country this week, it has the makings of a very, very bumpy few days

Jess Philips @ jessphillips
I predict she'll be gone by end of the week. Not sure why just feels so insecure
Just FYI I have no intel whatsoever I'm basing it on a feeling, which could be just normal Sunday night jitters of a tired woman.

George Freeman MP @ freeman_george
Well I predict she’ll be firmly in @Number10gov continuing to soldier on with a pretty thankless job.

Jess Philips @ jessphillips
Tbf he probably knows more than me (about this)

What ever the truth of how under threat May is, there us certainly a feeling of unease and tension tonight. Will be interesting to see if the papers tonight are more of the same.

mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1FH0WI?__twitter_impression=true
Trump hints at retaliation at 'very unfair' EU trade policies

Well that will be helpful to us, to be caught in the crossfire of a trade war.

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RedToothBrush · 28/01/2018 20:35

As you were speculating earlier today:

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/28/britain-squandering-opportunity-shape-brexit-favour/amp/?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter&__twitter_impression=true
As Downing Street dithers, Britain is squandering its opportunity to shape Brexit in its favour

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RedToothBrush · 28/01/2018 20:41

amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jan/28/brexit-passions-tory-theresa-may?__twitter_impression=true
Mount Tory is ready to blow over Brexit – and May can’t stop it
The PM is not to blame: no leader could keep a cap on boiling Brextremists, Binos (‘Brexit in name only’) and stay-ins

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RedToothBrush · 28/01/2018 20:52

This is effectively the long and short of it

Stewart Wood @ stewartwood
Theresa May’s position is now a completely impossible one. She is besieged by angry calls to be “bolder” from Tories of all persuasions who fundamentally disagree about what “bolder” means. Inaction is therefore her only survival strategy, which makes her position quite hopeless.

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SwedishEdith · 28/01/2018 20:59

It's a tragedy entirely of her own making. If she'd said at the start, "The vote was close, we need to recognise that and work to a solution that causes least damage and division" she might have gained some respect. But she chose not to.

DGRossetti · 28/01/2018 21:02

It's a tragedy entirely of her own making. If she'd said at the start, "The vote was close, we need to recognise that and work to a solution that causes least damage and division" she might have gained some respect. But she chose not to.

One wonders what Churchill might have done ?

BigChocFrenzy · 28/01/2018 21:41

Churchill advocated a United States of Europe and "feeling a European"

Winston Churchill, 7 May 1948:

“… a Europe in which men will be proud to say ‘I am a European’.
< and proud women, Winnie ! Grin >

We hope to see a Europe where men of every country will think as much of being a European as of belonging to their native land

  • and that without lessening any of their love and loyalty to their home and birthplace.

We hope that wherever they go in this wide domain, to which we set no limits in the European continent, they will truly feel

  • ‘Here I am at home, I am a citizen of this country too. These men are my brothers and friends’”
RedToothBrush · 28/01/2018 21:49

amp.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/28/gavin-williamson-under-pressure-over-fireplace-firm-job-russian-cyber-attack?__twitter_impression=true
Gavin Williamson left firm 'after meeting sparked by relationship'
Defence secretary left Elgin & Hall soon afterwards according to sources close to the company

The guardian still trying to push the Williamson story.

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