Westminstenders: Stuck in the twilightzone

[RedToothBrush]

Just want to remind everyone if what really matters and what the priority if Theresa May is.

May isn't interested in a new referendum. There is barely time to hold one, and anyone remotely interested in one, isn't named Theresa May. Forget it. Its not happening.

Nor are Brexit talks the most important thing. Whilst Jeremy Corbyn seems finally to be playing with some sort if EEA type solution he's not the one named Theresa May. If she doesn't want one, then it won't happen.

May does seem to favour something along these lines but she has to sell it to her party. If she ends up relying on the support of Labour to push it through against what her party want, then that doesn't end well for her or her party. So Corbyn seeming to squeeze her here isn't necessarily a good thing. It could push her to no deal.

Why?

Cos petty party politics.

THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT THING, and don't forget this, is the EU withdrawal Bill. As it stands, May has to concentrate her efforts on this. If it doesn't pass by the art 50 deadline then we have legal chaos. May isn't big on the courts, but I'm not sure she would want that situation either. It would be even more unthinkable than queues at Dover coupled with food shortages.

If it doesn't pass, and the Lords will do all they can to delay and obstruct as long as they can, May's only option is to beg for an art 50 extension. Which the EU might not be inclined to give. Which might leave us in a situation where our only option is to revoke a50.

The only predictable thing, is this will be last minute brinkmanship.

All the talk of a second ref is a distraction. Talk of Labour's position at this point, is all about positioning for the next election and not about Brexit at all.

So try to keep your eyes on what really matters and what battles are May's big ones and which are merely side shows.

I wonder who Side Show Bob will turn out to be.

(paywall) Exclusive: Mandarins opposed to exiting the EU ‘forcing weak PM into soft Brexit’

Tory Brexiters sound panicky, maybe ready to rebel and topple May.
They can if they wish: there are enough of them to ensure the 1922 Committee chair gets those 48+ letters

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/01/27/mandarins-forcing-theresa-may-brexit-betrayal/

A Cabinet source said:
“It is clear that arch-Remain mandarins have taken control since Nick Timothy [Mrs May’s former chief of staff] left No 10 and are forcing a weak Prime Minister into a soft Brexit.
Hammond is simply voicing pro-EU policy now pursued by Heywood and Robbins, which is why No 10 were so reluctant to slap him down.

“The Brexiteers are right to be worried about the direction of travel – we are set for a betrayal of Brexit.”

Mr Robbins moved to Downing Street from the Department for Exiting the EU last year amid reports of a series of arguments with David Davis, the Brexit Secretary.

Another government source said that Sir Jeremy and Mr Robbins were claiming that remaining in “a customs union” with the EU could still “honour the result” of the referendum,
a position voiced by the pro-Remain Confederation of British Industry last week.

The argument is making senior Eurosceptics “uneasy” in the absence of any indication that Britain would be free to strike its own trade deals with countries outside the EU.

One backbencher said:
“A rumour is going around saying Ollie Robbins is saying that we’re staying in the customs union to sort out the problem of the Irish border.
The British people won’t accept that”. < will they even understand it ? >

Iain Duncan Smith, the former Tory leader, said that a minister should now be present at every important meeting at which civil servants were engaged in negotiations
< a sure way to bugger up negotiations, letting the politicians jog Olly Robbins' elbow when he's talking to Barnier & co>

A Downing Street source said:
“The Prime Minister triggered Article 50, set the direction of Brexit negotiations in her Lancaster House and Florence speeches, and personally struck the deal that led to ‘sufficient progress’ in December.

“David Davis has supported her at every turn and will be back in Brussels this week for the next phase of negotiations.
They are supported by a very able Civil Service.”
< who have to work around a thick as mince Sec for DexEU >

A Cabinet Office spokesman said:
“The Government is focused on delivering its commitment to leave the EU and getting the very best deal for the UK.”
< translation: any deal that will avoid a Tory party civil war; bugger the country >

Hi folks.
That Channel 4 programme was interesting BIgChoc.
All that secrecy about the 'impact papers' and Lilley and Mitchell are asking for 5 to 6k in euros p day for their brexitty services.

This is not normal.

This R4 programme was good (In Business) was good: about the 'lack of transparency' in british pensions industry and lovely Gina Miller was on it. Sounds like another quietly very important brexit issue, and reason for their desire for a quick exit.
www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b09nxznc
www.ft.com/content/bea1c4f0-9dea-11e7-8cd4-932067fbf946

Without secrecy, greedy Tory politicians can't ask businesses for 6k per day - if the info were free, it has no value to sell

...but maybe they're billing it for their unrivalled experience in managing complex international trade matters

All that secrecy about the 'impact papers' and Lilley and Mitchell are asking for 5 to 6k in euros

I used to look at corruption in say Italian domestic politics with Berlusconi and think it couldn't happen here.

On the one hand the electorate have to be kept completely in the dark about the economic impact of relinquishing membership of the EU as it may 'jeopardise negotiations'.

On the other hand it is perfectly acceptable for MPs (with access to Liam Fox's department) to sell information about our departure for personal payment into their wife's company.

Is the U.K. govt is as corrupt as other countries.We have this absurd veneer of propriety yet beneath the surface lies acute debauchery, corruption and deceit.

But, Brexit supporters will still insist that everything is going perfectly according to plan, and that they absolutely trust these politicians to make Brexit a success .

Peston on FB

At the World Economic Forum in Davos last week, Angela Merkel naughtily poked fun at Theresa May, in a secret briefing for journalists.

Here's what transpired, according to those there.

Merkel said that when she asks Mrs May what she wants the shape of the UK's relationship with the EU to be, Mrs May says "make me an offer".

To which Mrs Merkel says, "but you're leaving - we don't have to make you an offer. Come on what do you want?

To which Mrs May replies "make me an offer".

And so, according to Mrs Merkel, the two find themselves trapped in a recurring loop of "what do you want?" and "make me an offer".

At its telling, the hacks laughed uproariously - though I am not sure this is so funny for the UK.

Merkel and May’s comedy skit reflects a deep and uncomfortable truth for the government and country - which is that Theresa May and her cabinet haven’t yet decided what our future trading relationship with the EU should look like, because (to state the bloomin’ obvious) ministers are at loggerheads over this.

But good news! The negotiations that matter start in earnest this week: not between the UK and Brussels, or even the UK and Germany, but between the erstwhile Remainers Hammond, Rudd and Clark on the one hand and the arch Brexiteers Gove and Johnson on the other.

But they are making brexit a success elements. For their own bank balances.

lonelyplanet Those who claim British politicians / civil servants are less corrupt are living in a patriotic fool's paradise

The British system has had secrecy ingrained for over century, to a much greater extent than most other Western democracies.
Hence, it is very difficult to find out about corruption in the UK if all those involved keep quiet.

The ingrained British secrecy makes it more difficult to find out about gross incompetence - past present or future
More difficult to find out about things happening that the public don't want

It's all about the rulers keeping control over the plebs by severely restricting the information they have
That makes it difficult to raise objections to what is happening; difficult to oppose those in power.

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
Greening trying v hard to be loyal to May this morning urging colleagues to back PM, but she wants grants reintroduced for less well off students, saying she wants 'progressive' not 'regressive' system

Did someone say impact papers?
www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/brexiteers-unite-to-discredithammond-9w9xz3wjk?utm_source=POLITICO.EU&utm_campaign=07a193c810-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_01_29&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_10959edeb5-07a193c810-190127789

I used to look at corruption in say Italian domestic politics with Berlusconi and think it couldn't happen here.

My childhood was my Italian DF correcting my English DM every time she tried to say "oh, but that couldn't happen here".

It's precisely that attitude which allows "it" to happen here.

Yes you read that right. Those impact papers sound like they do actually exist, but they are only JUST being presented to the Cabinet this week.

Whatever happened to the contempt of parliament discussion ?

Harry Cole @MrHarryCole
Johnny Mercer on May: “Any sort of change of leader is not helpful at the moment but I do think the window is closing...”

Ross Hawkins @rosschawkins
On @BBCr4today Justine Greening says it's wrong poorer students have more debt because maintenance grant scrapped
Comment liked by Anna Soubry

James Tapsfield‏ @JamesTapsfield
Looks like the Youthquake was more of a 30-something-quake

Whatever happened to the contempt of parliament discussion ?

Bercow effectively said, nothing to see here after the Brexit select committee voted on party lines.

More on the myth of the Youthquake.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42747342

More political implications here than you might think.

The problem with snapshot polls (and let's remember it's the politicians who have insisted for all my life that "the only poll that counts is the election") is that they aren't able to show a direction of travel. As the assorted polls (YouGov notably excepted)

The direction of travel can only be interpolated from successive elections. And we've not yet had the next election to determine where 2017 will lead.

Given the Tories almost compulsive misreading of public opinion and mood over the past few years, I'd say it just gives them every incentive to desperately avoid going anywhere near an election.

Ideally forever.

Surprise surprise

Tony Tassell
@TonyTassell
So the billionaire backer of the hard-Brexit advocate Legatum Institute has taken EU citizenship via Malta - scoop by @cynthiao #brexit #Malta

<a class="break-all" href="https://amp.ft.com/content/110f57ee-02a3-11e8-9650-9c0ad2d7c5b5#click=t.co/vQ3L7r50cA" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">amp.ft.com/content/110f57ee-02a3-11e8-9650-9c0ad2d7c5b5#click=t.co/vQ3L7r50cA

Sabine Weyand‏ @WeyandSabine
BREAKING: EU General Affairs Council adopts guidelines for #Brexit negotiations within 2 min: status quo transition without institutional representation, lasting from #Brexit date to 31 December 2020

Aren't we paid up and committed until 31st Dec 2020 as that's when the current EU budget runs until?

Harry Cole @MrHarryCole
LDs eyeing victory on ten amendments to EUWB in Lords by March... say they will back Adonis stunt on Wednesday eve, if he doesn't pull it. Shaping up to go to the wee hours on Thursday morning.

Kevin Schofield‏ @PolhomeEditor
On @LBC Former Cabinet minister John Whittingdale puts Theresa May on notice: "At the moment I don't think it is appropriate to have a leadership election ... give her the opportunity to negotiate the best deal, we can then address issues of leadership."

Harry Cole @MrHarryCole
Sir Vince Cable just did a turn of the Lobby. Says May in "terrible trouble" and Tories are heading for a 1846 style split due to the "visceral division" on Conservative benches...

I'm not sure why Vince is getting excited. That's not good news for the LDs.

In conversation with Jess Phillips last night George Freeman said this (she was talking about how she thought May would be gone by the end of the week whilst he said no):

George Freeman MP @Freeman_George
But Jess you know quite a lot more than me about The Labour Party and the Corbyn Revolution. So. Q: Do you think the New Labour Blairites can or will ever unite behind Corbyn? Or will they breakaway to form a Social Democratic #EnMarch2.0?

Was this just shit stirring? (Yes to an extent, but Freeman has been pushed to the limit with May over the Great Repel Bill and was inches from rebelling. He didn't but it was interesting he's now defending May and saying that she's safe. If a leadership bid was launched at the leadership did go hard right, would all Con MP stick with them? My feeling is not).

My point, is that I do think there is a growing buzz about En Marche UK. We are not there yet, but if this all carries on, the dynamics of politics perhaps is starting to make it realistic. And it won't be to the benefit of the LDs. They seem unable for very reasons to shake their past.

If my memory of history is correct, the Tory split under Peel led to the moderate ones joining what was the Whig party and forming the Liberals. So it's not necessarily bad news for the LDs. Who knows what might happen, with a Tory rupture maybe moderate Labour, Tory and Lib Dems would unite in a new party?

Red: Aren't we paid up and committed until 31st Dec 2020 as that's when the current EU budget runs until?

I think there is a commitment as per being one of the decision makers where and how this budget would be spent. The budget isn't all paid up front at the beginning. They use the RAL system, I think. Pony up as you go along.

Hard to think of anything as hard and fast at the moment. Rees Mogg (at one of the Committees, I think) saying to DD that the UK could just go now and not pay.

Poster formally known as hollie here.

Watched daily politics.

• so the tories don't know what they want from Brexit.

• yes we do

• labour says "no you don't, party is divided."

• so what is labour's position

• well we want a jobs first Brexit

• but what does that mean

• waffle waffle waffle.

If a new centrist pro European party emerges with sensible properly thought out policies i would back them in a heartbeat. Especially if they had the guts to say what they believed. I am so tired of the prevarication from the two parties, with only a few notable exceptions who actually say what they think.

It's blatantly obvious both parties don't know what they want. Or do know what they want but are too scared to say.