Grumpy^ Leaver Richard North continually warns of the coming Brexit diaster, because of the Ultras cake delusion^ - not because of the EU side
http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86713
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At the end of March 2019, when expectations of disaster loom, little will happen.
We will continue trading with the EU on terms very much as before.
There is even the possibly that the EU will somehow "magic" the third country deals, so that we can keep trade with the rest of the world on a fairly even keep.
A rational prime minister would make the best use of that time.
We would at least have the opportunity to sort out customs systems and the infrastructure needed to manage trade with the EU.
We might also do what we can to encourage the EU and its Member States to develop their own systems and their own very substantial infrastructure needed to deal with the UK.
As it stands, though, we have a delusional prime minister
who believes that we can successfully negotiate a trade deal with the EU which far exceeds in scope anything which has been agreed to date
– on a par with our current position within the Single Market.
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Buoyed by this false logic, the prime minister would see absolutely no need to make any preparations for our coming "third country" status,
nor does it give our negotiating team any scope for making sensible arrangements with the EU that will enable us to make the best out of a bad situation.
The point here is that if the prime minister expects the EU to make offer anything beyond a basic free trade agreement,
she is going to be seriously disappointed.
… her delusion does not give EU negotiators any firm basis on which to forge a workable agreement.
We can see the time draining away as the UK sticks to its unrealistic demands,
leaving us with the worst of all possible worlds – an exit without a deal.
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the extra time will simply give businesses more time to restructure,
and to transfer vulnerable operations to new bases in the territories of EU Member States
However, for as long as the media narrative supports the empty claim that we have moved from phase one to phase two of the negotiations,
and that this somehow represents a "victory" for Theresa May,
nothing of this will impinge on the consciousness of the public – still less the media or the political establishment.