Westministenders: The Art of the Deal

[RedToothBrush]

Well Trump seems to have put his foot in it.

Not that this should come as a surprise. For all the talk of closer ties with the US that was never going to happen. All that was need was for Trump to over step once too many.

By chance (?) Barnier also raised questions about our commitment to working with the EU on security.

Its almost as if we are being asked to choose whom we look to for security.

Meanwhile it sounds like the divorce bill is sorted - though this may not be as settled as that, if it comes with conditions. The deal might also be backtracked on, seeing as that appears to be the done thing presently.

Talks on Ireland are stalemated with Ireland threating to veto. No sign of a breakthrough here yet.

Talks on EU citz rights are reportedly going backwards (again) rather than going forward.

All of this is theatre for a British audience though, with the UK agreeing to everything. Because they gave again their cards when a50 was triggered.

The crunch is coming on whether we move to stage two before Christmas. We have no time to lose.

So, is TM lining up to keep the whole UK in the single market?

Can't see that getting past the Brexiteers. Mainly because it's almost inevitable that at some point in the future people will wake up and say "how come we have to abide by all these rules that we aren't allowed a say in. Surely it would make more sense to have a seat at the table .... ?"

That said, would such a suggestion have Labour backing ? And what are the implications of a Tory-Labour combination carrying the vote in the HoC ? Or (as I suspect) would it never "be allowed" to get that far ?

Whoever is advising Labour is certainly earning their fee at the moment. I can't remember the last negative Corbyn story I read ...

She might have the numbers to get that kind of deal through Parliament with Labour and DUP support.

3 line whip ?

How would Johnson, Rees-Mogg and Redwood be able to support such a vote, and keep their Brexiteer credibility ?

There was a discussion on Today this morning where it was pointed out that staying in the SM excludes any 3rd party trade deals.

(And to be honest, the person asserting that, Lord Rickets, was quite open that the reason it would do so is because there would be smuggling, with the understated implication that the EU wouldn't trust the UK that there wouldn't be).

So all those countries, the UK has been chatting up at the bar these past months. India. Australia. New Zealand. They're all going to be stood up as the UK goes back to the ex ?

Surgeon and Davidson have both issued statements that seem similar. Both suggesting that any deal should be UK wide. Sturgeon has called on the so called coalition of chaos to get behind it but Labour are staying quiet.

Notices Corbyn cropped up yesterday to highlight the Rohinga (apologies for spelling) people's crisis. I'm not sure if that's not some excellent level trolling on his part

Notices Corbyn cropped up yesterday to highlight the Rohinga (apologies for spelling) people's crisis. I'm not sure if that's not some excellent level trolling on his part

Hard for the MSM to generate a scary UK story out of that. Fair play Jezza.

If May has enough support from Labour and a few of her own moderates, she may not need either the DUP or the hardliners of her own party. The issue would be persuading enough Remain leaning MPs to have enough spine to vote for it. Could end up being rainbow coalitions both for and against, if Parliament were to vote on staying in the single market.

I'd expect the SNP and Lib Dems to vote as a bloc to remain in the single market too, and Caroline Lucas. Don't know about Plaid.

Surgeon and Davidson have both issued statements that seem similar. Both suggesting that any deal should be UK wide.

Lord Rickets pointed out it would have to be, as the EU wouldn't trust the UKs security.

If May has enough support from Labour and a few of her own moderates, she may not need either the DUP or the hardliners of her own party.

The problem there is that the hardliners have some heavyweight backing. Or we're told they do. It's hard not to get the vibe that BoJo/Gove may believe this is their moment, and a chance to storm out of cabinet and seize the crown they so desperately crave by whatever stitched-up deal they have done with each other.

But you can be in the Single Market and have trade deals with other countries?

For example, Norway, within the SM but outside the CU, happily manages to strike its own trade deals? It is perfectly free to do so - either in concert with other EFTA members or on its own. Members of EFTA have dozens of deals, including two with China. In fact, EFTA has something like 27 free trade agreements across the world, plus individual members have bilateral deals too.

The countries being chatted up over the last few months haven’t offered anything concrete and in any case FTDs would take years to negotiate. What seems to be happening is precisely what people with eyes have been saying from the beginning: you cannot have it all outside the EU. The options for the UK are limited if it wants to save its economy, maintain the Union and have largely frictionless borders. The EU has been clear about this since the beginning but Brexit fantasists have persisted with their nonsense. So here we are: massive UK concessions or no deal?

On consciousness raising: what do you make of Guy Verhofstadt's tweet yesterday?

Guy Verhofstadt‏
@guyverhofstadt
Pro-Europeans must work together. The #FBPE initiative on Twitter is gaining momentum - and has the potential to play an important role in an open debate about the future of Europe. Let's make it Europe wide! #WeAreEurope 🇪🇺

[I had to look up #FBPE - it stands for "Follow Back Pro-Europe" and it's a tag that lots of remainers have in their twitter handle]

The countries being chatted up over the last few months

They've looked us up and down, rolled their eyes and turned back to their own drinks.

The problem there is that the hardliners have some heavyweight backing. Or we're told they do. It's hard not to get the vibe that BoJo/Gove may believe this is their moment, and a chance to storm out of cabinet and seize the crown they so desperately crave by whatever stitched-up deal they have done with each other.

Doubt Boris would want the job right now. Much better for him if May blunders on a while longer! Additionally he doesn't really want to leave the EU, much less the single market.

But basically, if it did come down to a single market Parliament vote (it may not) it wouldn't necessarily be a Tory v Labour thing. Three line whip or not. I also think May probably plays better in the Labour Brexit seats than Johnson would.

Well there is India. They're totally up for an agreement. In return for looser immigration. Oh, we don't want that? Shame.

But basically, if it did come down to a single market Parliament vote (it may not) it wouldn't necessarily be a Tory v Labour thing. Three line whip or not. I also think May probably plays better in the Labour Brexit seats than Johnson would.

But is remaining in the SM acceptable to Nigel Farage s paymasters ?

Well there is India. They're totally up for an agreement. In return for looser immigration. Oh, we don't want that? Shame.

I have no doubt that the big businesses in the UK that are left would love any amount of immigration to boost their bottom line. Which one again highlights the Willy Wonka tastes-of-whatever-you-want nature of Brexit, bearing mind some people expect to see all brown faces removed from the UK because Leave won. Not all. But some.

we had people who looked like Prime Ministers in waiting. We don't with Corbyn

Yy - and this is one of the things that I find most frustrating right now. Corbyn is acting like a middle manager who has found himself with a seat on the board but gets lost on his way to the meetings and wanders around accounts instead

#FBPE

we had people who looked like Prime Ministers in waiting. We don't with Corbyn

I refer the right honourable member to the case of Theresa May, who was widely touted as the only Prime Ministerial possibility in 2016.

Anyway, to capture the spirit of a friends FB post ... I don't wan't to look slim and attractive. I want to look like I could kick your ass.

Given the track record of "Prime Ministerial Prime Ministers" in the past half century, I'm not so averse to Corbyn.

Laura Kuenssberg‏
@bbclaurak

Labour is granted an urgent question in Commons on Brexit at 1230

Given the track record of "Prime Ministerial Prime Ministers" in the past half century, I'm not so averse to Corbyn.

It's possible that he could grow into the job. After all that was thrown at him between 2016 and 2017, he did remarkably well in the election.

And Boris has never looked less like a PM in waiting. The tipping point is when people start to think 'could Corbyn be any worse than the alternative?'

I'm not sure what to make of Corbyn right now, but 'looking like pm material' is no indicator of anything. Cameron looked pretty solid throughout his tenure and yet this entire shitshow is his fault.

When will the nation finally hold the tories to account for fucking up the country?

Jacob Rees-Mogg‏
@JacobReesMogg

Brexit saved thanks to the DUP

[he then links to a Sun article which I haven't linked to: BREXIT BACKLASH Theresa May sparks DUP fury over offer to ‘keep Northern Ireland tied to EU after Brexit’ as Scotland demands the same deal]

Labour is granted an urgent question in Commons on Brexit at 1230

How significant is this ?

Well, as DD answers the question- not very significant. Certainly don't expect a straight answer.

Boris and Gove do not want to deal with the "hard shit" to quote Cameron.