Westministenders: The Art of the Deal

[RedToothBrush]

Well Trump seems to have put his foot in it.

Not that this should come as a surprise. For all the talk of closer ties with the US that was never going to happen. All that was need was for Trump to over step once too many.

By chance (?) Barnier also raised questions about our commitment to working with the EU on security.

Its almost as if we are being asked to choose whom we look to for security.

Meanwhile it sounds like the divorce bill is sorted - though this may not be as settled as that, if it comes with conditions. The deal might also be backtracked on, seeing as that appears to be the done thing presently.

Talks on Ireland are stalemated with Ireland threating to veto. No sign of a breakthrough here yet.

Talks on EU citz rights are reportedly going backwards (again) rather than going forward.

All of this is theatre for a British audience though, with the UK agreeing to everything. Because they gave again their cards when a50 was triggered.

The crunch is coming on whether we move to stage two before Christmas. We have no time to lose.

In 2013, Jacob Rees Mogg made an after-dinner speech to the Traditional Britain Group, which has called for “millions” of immigrants to be “requested to return to their natural homelands”. But hey, the BBC put him on Have I got News For You, and he was transformed into an endearing, authentic chap.

From this article by Yasmin Alibhai-Brown inews.co.uk/opinion/media-enabling-rise-neo-fascism/

And these are the people the government are running scared of. I despair for the future, not least for my mixed race children.

I agree there is an enabling culture. Press and media on board for the most part.

Well, as DD answers the question- not very significant.

I wouldn’t imagine very significant, but hope triumphs over experience.

Arlene Foster rules out meeting Theresa May today as DUP said to be 'far away' from deal on Irish border

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/05/arlene-foster-rules-meeting-theresa-may-today-dup-said-far-away/amp/

[...]There had been suggestions yesterday that Mrs Foster, the DUP leader, will fly to London to meet Mrs May today.

However a source told The Telegraph that the DUP did not "think it would be productive for Arlene to be there today" because there was so much more work to be done.

The source said: “Arlene will come in when they are close to agreeing something. There is such a level of work to be done at the moment – it is not at a stage where Arlene would be involved as leader.”

The source said the UK could still be in a “no deal” territory which would see the UK leave the EU in March 2019 without any trade deal with the EU.

The Telegraph has learned that Mrs Foster and her senior DUP colleagues were not shown the text of the 15 page draft agreement with the EU.

One source said: “The DUP had not seen any text. They had discussions with the Government when they indicated where the direction of travel, and where discussions were headed.”

Instead, Mrs May flew to Brussels, and then attempted to bounce the DUP by phone to agree the deal once it had leaked during her lunch with Jean Claude Juncker, the EU President.

One source said: “The DUP are not the sort of people you can bounce into an agreement they don’t like. If that means they walk away from the table, they walk away from the table.”

One of the problems is that the draft of the 15 page deal appears as though it was “drafted by Brussels, or worse still drafted by Dublin”, said a source familiar with the DUP’s thinking.

Well, they won't be keen on any future trade deals then. The world won't trade simply on a text issued and only aligned with the wishes of the DUP. They can walk from those too.

Instead, Mrs May flew to Brussels, and then attempted to bounce the DUP

See also: behaviour after the election.

I thought the Tories were supposed to be the masters of the Dark Arts ? It's looking suspiciously like the DUP are running rings around them ... especially as they've indicated that they are not going to come running when Theresa May clicks her fingers.

I wonder what the chances are that they will try to get May to go to NI to meet them ?

Well, they won't be keen on any future trade deals then.

But their Brexit is nothing to do with trade, so why do they care ?

Simon Jenkins is angry. He is not alone.

Theresa May must call the DUP’s bluff – this EU deal has to happen

Fudge is good only if it tastes sweet. Theresa May’s deal with the EU on Irish border trade is apparently too bitter for Ulster’s Democratic Unionist party to stomach. Yesterday they wielded a veto. A British government at an international summit was humiliated by a minority party pursuing a minority point of view. It is why governments should never rely on extremist parties. The DUP has three days to make amends, or a terrible vengeance should be taken on them.

It does not matter that the DUP is hypocritical. Decades of Westminster indulging its political primitivism have come home to roost. Unionists have demanded separatism on education, trade, corporate taxes, abortion, homosexuality and a host of pet issues, yet they want to call themselves “British”. They are Irish.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/05/theresa-may-dup-eu-deal-minority-party

It's not just the dup though. Davidson and Khan are also up in arms about special treatment for NI - and rightly so.

Squaring their position with the EU and the ROI in particular, its time to acknowledge that hard Brexit is an awful idea, hugely detrimental to the peace and prosperity of the nation.

Soft brexit honours the referendum and doesn't raise these problems. Time for May to show some balls and leadership and face down Davies and co.

Laurie, and Sturgeon. And Leanne Wood and Corwyn Jones.

Basically all the people that even I, as a lay person, could have predicted kicking off.

To get this far down the road without realising how people would react to this, TM must be either spectacularly dim, utterly lacking in original thought and imagination, or a master of putting her fingers in her ears.

Again, I'm no fan of the DUP, but they are not extremists. They are doing exactly what they said they'd do and exactly what their constituents voted for. They haven't played games here. They've been straight about where they stand on the Union and Brexit and have taken advantage of the deal offered to them by the Tories. Why wouldn't they? The Lib Dems did it when they went into coalition.

This whole episode shows once again what a lightweight TM is and how lacking in political nous her cabinet is. There is NO way the DUP would ever accept divergence from the rest of the UK. To behave as though they would is sheer incompetence.

Rhiannon Maybe this was her plan all along.

They are Irish

Whilst the whooping from brexiteers at a veto being wielded by 1/65th of parliament when attacking a veto from 1/27th of the EU is exceptionally hypocritical, statements like the above are just as bad as what ukip were pulling before.

Sure attack their sudden want for non divergence, but you can do that without stoking anti Irish sentiment. Not aimed at you Elena but Jenkins.

This whole episode shows once again what a lightweight TM is and how lacking in political nous her cabinet is.

Yes.

There is NO way the DUP would ever accept divergence from the rest of the UK
....except when it comes to Abortion. I agree that they are a special case, Scotland, Wales and London haven't seen the level of violence of The Troubles or had troupes stationed there.

Well, no 20nil that's not correct. As a province, NI voted remain. Arlenes own constituency voted remain.

There are lots of inconsistencies in their position. They voted for brexit yet presumably don't want the economic implications of a hard border. They want to be on the same terms as the UK, but not on issues of marriage equality and women's rights. Consistency is not a quality they demonstrate.

Yet I totally agree that May should have foreseen their reaction. That wasn't a surprise at all.

True Hashi.

I think I love Keir Starmer

Was DD speaking for the government or himself?
May has obviously offered regulatory divergence within the UK to the EU.

The DUP can be both Irish and British. One does not exclude the other.
I am Scottish and British, although increasingly struggle to see the benefits of the latter.

I agree with laurie even if you get the DUP to agree to a de facto single market/custom union you are just at the start of your troubles with Scotland and it looks like London.

Butterymuffin "The tipping point is when people start to think 'could Corbyn be any worse than the alternative?"

You know, I think that has actually already happened within a lot of the business sector - especially amongst those who have been granted meetings with government representatives about Brexit and post-Brexit.

That is why business representatives started going to the press with their 'concerns' (a euphemism for total, utter disbelief and dismay). They have realised, in a way that hasn't quite percolated through to the wider population yet (probably because they aren't fixated on Brexit because they don't have to be yet; partly because they are insulated by a media who are still not delivering the full import of what is going on), that we are being steered towards a catastrophe by a government not intelligent, subtle, imaginative and competent enough to manage all of this.

I think a lot of business has already, genuinely, realised that 'the choice is between stable government, strong leadership and chaos' - and the current Conservatives are leading us to chaos.

I am now quite sure that this is why Labour are getting behind Corbyn and I sense an increasing confidence about the Labour platform.

Now, how that will all play out with the wider electorate - who haven't been privy to the full extent of Conservative-led (and I think that should be 'the May cabal and the ego-maniac--manouevrerers') incompetence) - I don't know.

Again, I'm no fan of the DUP, but they are not extremists. They are doing exactly what they said they'd do and exactly what their constituents voted for.

yes, Laurie. Arlene's own constituency voted remain along with NI itself. The not extremist element or unconnected with extremism could be debatable too. If there wasn't state collusion covering up things. Maybe in a more oblique way. In the more usual interpretation, I do think they are fundamentalists. I think they are extremists.

I always think about Hillsborough. How long did it take them to get acknowledgement they weren't the perpetrators? And that was with just the police covering up. Imagine if the political establishment had been in cahoots, too. It would never have seen the light of day again.

Propaganda can be used effectively to create cover stories and narratives.

Of course Scotland is on the island of Britain, so automatically de facto British. Even when Scotland was an independent country.

Mike Galsworthy #FBPE‏ @mikegalsworthy
Brexit is increasingly becoming a dictatorial dogmatic entity.
twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/938027902196576256

Just watching DD in HOC.
No answers no compromise, no intelligence, just gishgabbly statements. Like a dictatorship.

Let's not confuse mandate to speak for the whole of NI with mandate to refuse policies unacceptable to their supporters. The DUP clearly don't have the former, despite being the biggest party, but of course they have the latter.

There's a point to be made about the inadequacy of FPTP here, especially in seats like eg South Belfast where most of the local population can't stand the DUP candidate (she got the boot in the Assembly elections!) but she won because the opposition to her was so very fragmented. But in our flawed system, there's no doubt whatsoever that they're only doing what they made clear they'd do. They stood in the GE on a Brexit mandate, with it clear to all that NI had voted Remain, and they still won those seats.

And while I disagree with 20nil about the DUP not being extremists, it was obvious they were never going to accept the initial proposed solution. They couldn't possibly. May should have been aware of this and it's astonishing if she wasn't.

Elena, what, a plan to alienate the people she'd made a grubby deal with and (I'm still anticipating) split her party asunder?

I'm not saying you're wrong, but I do have to ask what outcome she would have foreseen/wanted from such a plan.

I do lean more towards the 'lightweight/lacking in political nous' view at the moment, I have to say.