Westministenders: The Art of the Deal

[RedToothBrush]

Well Trump seems to have put his foot in it.

Not that this should come as a surprise. For all the talk of closer ties with the US that was never going to happen. All that was need was for Trump to over step once too many.

By chance (?) Barnier also raised questions about our commitment to working with the EU on security.

Its almost as if we are being asked to choose whom we look to for security.

Meanwhile it sounds like the divorce bill is sorted - though this may not be as settled as that, if it comes with conditions. The deal might also be backtracked on, seeing as that appears to be the done thing presently.

Talks on Ireland are stalemated with Ireland threating to veto. No sign of a breakthrough here yet.

Talks on EU citz rights are reportedly going backwards (again) rather than going forward.

All of this is theatre for a British audience though, with the UK agreeing to everything. Because they gave again their cards when a50 was triggered.

The crunch is coming on whether we move to stage two before Christmas. We have no time to lose.

if that's true there was a deal until Snarlene got on the blower. Brexit is the DUP.

I used to think that there was a solution to the NI / border problem, it jsut needed some clever people to sit down together and think really hard about it.

Treaties can and are amended as and when circumstances change. But the GFA took a lot of work, and the ability to compromise from both sides, and quite a longish time, as I recall - started by Major and then completed by Blair. With this we have had the hard-line Tories stamping their feet about what they want, with absolutely no chance of meeting the other side half or even quarter way. And insisting that it's got to be done their way right now.

Doesn't her coronation oath require her to protect the United Kingdom ? England, Scotland and Wales would still qualify as a United Kingdom.

I wonder if there are 48 hard line Tories who will be prepared to force a Leadership election? Boris won't be able to duck out this time.

www.buzz.ie/news/leo-vradkar-just-threw-theresa-may-bus-brexit-negotiations-264286

This may be wrong, but it states that the UK had brought this to the table as agreed and then back peddled. Kind of elementary. At least make sure it is agreed before you say it is agreed.

Well Theresa has form. Look at her going to the Queen with her government before it was agreed with the DUP
I am finding it hilarious that it looks to me like the EU have refused to negotiate with DD. TM seems to be doing it now. And making more progress, even if that does mean capitulating to all the EU demands

The GFA is an international treaty, registered at the UN
Not something Brexiters can unilaterally tear up.

Renegotiating that would be a nightmare, especially now we know how truly incompetent the UK side are at negotiating
And the Irish-American lobby would prevent any watering down of those 142 cross-border activities

The US Congress and White House basically strong-armed successive Uk govts into conceding much more than the Tory right and hardline unionists could accept.
In order to get the IRA to stand down.
Hence the eagerness of Brexit Ultras to trash the GFA:
it's not just because the GFA hinders a hard Brexit, but they hate the GFA in itself, as a surrender of sovereignty / surrender to terrorism

The US Congress and White House basically strong-armed successive Uk govts into conceding much more than the Tory right and hardline unionists could accept.

But, but, but - we no longer have a normal President in the White House. I honestly don't know what the US would do now.

I don't think the EU refused to negotiate with DD, more the other way:

His "negotiating strategy" was to assume they would back down at 11:59 on 29 March 2019
Hence he did bugger all:
didn't bother to show up, or read papers, or do any part of the job May appointed him to do

If May had left it to him, UK plc would jump over the cliff at midnight

There were only ever 2-3 main choices on the EU Brexit menu
However, the govt should have chosen one, then negotiated to get the most out of it

I lost track of username, but a PP said a few pages back: For better or for worse, NI is part of the UK.
I'm interested to know if you remember what the for worse was like?
Aged 12, a British squaddie pulled me from my aunts car, on the border, and shoved his hands in my bra. His pretext for searching me was that I "smelled like a Taig."
Aged about 10, one of my cousins, who lives on a farm that is on the border, once lost control of her puppy as some soldiers passed. One of them came over and out his gun in her mouth, and said "you, or the dog? Your choice." Then laughed and walked off.
If we leave without a deal for the north of Ireland there will have to be a border, and my family, and hundred of thousands of others like them, fear the same persecution all over again. Thank goodness EU27 hasn't forgotten about our plight, because it sure feels like rUK have.

A lot of British politicians lost my respect today. They should have supported the news of the supposed-agreement, and not thrown up immediate roadblocks with "we want that deal too". The north of ireland is already different, because of their country's actions.

Surely the DUP were never going to be happy with a deal where NI kept the same rules as ROI but different to the rest of the UK? It is just too much of a step on the road to uniting Ireland again. Of course if May hadn't held an election and lost her majority they could have been quietly ignored or pacified. Now the DUP own the Government and we are screwed. I just can't see how you will get DUP and the ROI to agree on a solution when they have fundamentally conflicting priorities.

On a related note ....

my MP responded to my enquiry within 2 hours ...

Thank you for your email. understands your concerns regarding the holding of personal data by MPs' offices, and would like to assure you that any information you provide us with is used solely in relation to the matter raised by you. In addition, all information is held in full accordance with current UK data protection legislation. Thank you for raising this matter important matter with .

looks like someone's a tad rattled ???

Somerville that is vile. And they got away with it too.

H has family in NI - most are DUP sympathisers of the hardcore kind and he's been hideously indoctrinated - we don't talk about NI at home because it's instant war. Another thing to put on the 'upsides of getting divorced' list.

The DUP are a special case, because what they want is actually contradictory. They're not known for their reasonableness, pliability or logic, so they will probably continue to be an immense thorn in Theresa May's side.

Exactly.

They want no hard border, no internal border within the UK and to leave the EU. The eagle eyed amongst you will have noted that they can have any two of these three. It's like the Brexit version of the old on time, on budget and working mantra.

In this respect, they're actually less reasonable than some of the TUV, extremist types. They at least have a more coherent version of how they want things to shake down: they want a hard border, to leave the EU and no internal borders within the UK. That is at least something that is within the realms of possibility, if nothing else. Putting them ahead of the DUP right now.

Somerville terrible.
@faisalislam
Hearing PM’s big Europe statement, mentioned earlier today by Speaker, in the House of Commons tomorrow is being pulled.

Ain't MN brilliant. I've learnt more about NI especially, from real posters, thanks to NI and ROI posters. And so much else on these threads, thanks MN women.

The DUP would be totally happy with a hard border. They're just clever enough not to say that. (Many derogatory things can be said about DUP politicians, though wanting peace above all else, I try to resist. But not that they're stupid. Quite the opposite in fact.)

Looking at the demographics, Ireland will be united at some point in the very distant future. It's a small island with a very long and windy border and a rapidly decreasing British population.

The border being enforced (what this means in reality is most of the routes being blocked or blown up) plays right into the DUP's long term goals.

I think you are right Somer, but of course RoI will veto any deal involving a hard border and the conservative hard right will stop any deal involving the whole of the UK sticking to EU trade rules. So...we have a something of a Mexican standoff going on.

Mmm i dunno. I'm not sure I believe they really want a hard border, because of the aforementioned canniness. I know Arlene's brain cells all got burned for RHI money, but the likes of Ian Og...say whatever else, he's a smart cookie. And there were squeaks from within the DUP about needing to appeal to pragmatic, economic unionist Catholics, before the current nonsense started. Peter Robinson had a piece saying that very thing. A hard border is both economically disastrous, so will piss off Unionists whose livelihoods it'll arse up, and a really good way to dispel support from anyone middle ground-ish.

Am a staunch remainer and no friend of the DUP. They have a perfect right to their unionism, but were catastrophically stupid to imagine that Brexit, which they campaigned for, wouldn’t weaken the Union.

But, it is not the case that the GFA would have to be renegotiated because of Brexit. It exists outside that process and the two shouldn’t be conflated.

If they don't want a hard border and they don't want NI to have different rules to the rest of the UK, than that means the only option they would support is for the whole of the UK to keep EU rules. Brexiteers won't except this, so we're still stuck.

Unless there is some other option is am missing.

Worth remembering that the DUP was the only major political party in NI to oppose the GFA, and was not one of the signatories to the multi-party agreement

The Northern Ireland Act 1998 made provision to implement the various strands of the GFA that needed primary legislation (such as the new First and Deputy First Ministers), and of course all acts require royal consent from HMQ

A hard border is both economically disastrous, so will piss off Unionists whose livelihoods it'll arse up, and a really good way to dispel support from anyone middle ground-ish.

All true, and I agree... except... I believe the DUP think they're smart enough to spin the narrative so that it appears that they had nothing to do with the border going up, and it's all RoI's fault. Thus potentially dispelling RoI/EU support, rather than their own. Or at least leaving people just as torn in the middle; plus with a border in place, and the core supporters feeling nicely ascendant over their Catholic neighbours once again.

They have a perfect right to their unionism, but were catastrophically stupid to imagine that Brexit, which they campaigned for, wouldn’t weaken the Union.

Well, it was never supposed to work! And to be fair to them it didn't, NI was Remain. They were basically trying to steal a march from the TUV types and also have a pop at the UUP. It really isn't too dissimilar to the game Boris was playing. Very clever tactic, actually. Until it worked better than anticipated.

I certainly don't have anything positive to say about the brainpower in either Downing Street or the White House driventodespair. It's just that historically, the DUP have been smart. Foster isn't, but Robinson and Paisley Senior certainly were. The piss poor handling of the RHI scandal would never have happened like that on either of their watches. I suppose it's possible that Foster is the new normal rather than an aberration, but there are still brains in the top brass.