Westministenders: The Art of the Deal

[RedToothBrush]

Well Trump seems to have put his foot in it.

Not that this should come as a surprise. For all the talk of closer ties with the US that was never going to happen. All that was need was for Trump to over step once too many.

By chance (?) Barnier also raised questions about our commitment to working with the EU on security.

Its almost as if we are being asked to choose whom we look to for security.

Meanwhile it sounds like the divorce bill is sorted - though this may not be as settled as that, if it comes with conditions. The deal might also be backtracked on, seeing as that appears to be the done thing presently.

Talks on Ireland are stalemated with Ireland threating to veto. No sign of a breakthrough here yet.

Talks on EU citz rights are reportedly going backwards (again) rather than going forward.

All of this is theatre for a British audience though, with the UK agreeing to everything. Because they gave again their cards when a50 was triggered.

The crunch is coming on whether we move to stage two before Christmas. We have no time to lose.

No of course not cailleach. Nobody said she did, did they? Hence remarks about roughly 25% of the population sharing her views. Regardless, the DUP won the most first preferences at the Assembly elections (barely!) and the most votes at the Westminster elections, and she leads them, so of course she ought to have something to say. It could hardly be otherwise. And the next biggest party, the Shinners, will be loving this.

Sanity check: so the DUP wants NO hard border, but also NO difference in the regulatory agreements between NI and the EU/the UK and the EU?

To be quite honest, I'm not sure how many DUP politicians are actually that pro-Leave, when it comes down to it. Some certainly are, but there was talk at the time of them basically using it as an excuse to commune with their base (ie the more rabid ones). Expecting a narrow Remain win and giving them the ability to posture, safe in the knowledge that no consequences would flow from their actions. This may sound familiar.

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As co guarantor of the GFA, the UK gov't do owe NI it's support in not doing anything to undermine it. Signed in a treaty and everything.

No, the UK do not owe Dublin anything. Conversely, Dublin or the EU do not owe the UK anything. If Westminster want to move on, they have to square their circle. Which they are supposedly committed to and have stated there wouldn't be a hard border. If they don't want to do that, they can walk away without anything. Their choice and one which they are making for the citizenry of the UK.

What I mean there is that I strongly suspect Foster is Leave in the same way that Boris Johnson is, rather than John Redwood.

I was chatting to a Leaver last week who really couldn't see what the issue with NI and the GFA was, and was confident everything would be sorted out by Monday ...

Am I right in my understanding that the UK could renegotiate the GFA, but it would then need to be ratified by NI and the RoI with a referendum apiece ?

And as we have seen, if a referendum is the answer, nobody understands the question.

The UK government absolutely do owe Northern Ireland support for its peace process. They seem to have forgotten that and the ROI are more mindful of these commitments, perhaps understandably as the fallout will literally be on their door step.

Yes, everyone wants contradictory things. But none of this is in any way surprising and the Brexiteers should have thought it through in the first place. I have so much sympathy for the Irish, because all they want to do is minimize the impact of this mess for their own country. There's nothing to gain for them, just lots and lots to lose.

The DUP are a special case, because what they want is actually contradictory. They're not known for their reasonableness, pliability or logic, so they will probably continue to be an immense thorn in Theresa May's side.

Davis has been saying for ages that NI could be taken up in the second phase. Despite agreeing the three terms to move on. If he is saying that as head of the Brexit dep't, what hope for anyone else and a grip on reality?

There was a deal. Seemingly May went out to ring DUP and came back saying she couldn't sign.

It has been a balls up from the beginning. They could have agreed methodology and citizens rights quickly enough. Then have thrown everything at NI issue.

What I mean there is that I strongly suspect Foster is Leave in the same way that Boris Johnson is, rather than John Redwood.

I agree with this. They'd need to get their priorities sorted sharpish though. The more talk there is of sea borders, the more they'll get in touch with their inner remainer.

I used to think that there was a solution to the NI / border problem, it jsut needed some clever people to sit down together and think really hard about it.

But there really isn't a solution that both allows NI to be outside the CU with rUK, but also keep the current border arrangements, is there?

lh there's scope to redraw up the gfa I believe. But there's also the existing right to a reunification referendum within the existing agreement, which I suspect they're looking to avoid more than anything. I suspect the dup may be shouting a lot but full of hot air. Which is nothing new of course but still.

HashiAsLarry

tx ...

But there's also the existing right to a reunification referendum within the existing agreement, which I suspect they're looking to avoid more than anything

I return to my thoughts about where the Queen stands in all this ? Doesn't her coronation oath require her to protect the United Kingdom ?

I know allegiances to oaths is all a bit old hat nowadays, but everything I have ever read about the Queen suggests she takes hers deadly seriously.

to lose one country, may be regarded as unfortunate. But to lose two ....

Speaking of Ireland, I suspect this news will put a spring in their step :

www.theregister.co.uk/2017/12/04/ireland_expects_apple_to_pay_up_13bn_in_back_taxes/

Well done the EU !!!!!!

What bit of the GFA needs to be renegotiated? If that bit, are the others up for grabs too? Or issues already signed and agreed suddenly new red lines?

Is it now regarded by the UK as a moveable feast and therefore not worth the paper it was written on? 'Back to the good old days' will not really be 'back to the good old days'.

Is it now regarded by the UK as a moveable feast and therefore not worth the paper it was written on?

The worrying thing is the Leaver I mentioned upthread thinks this is exactly the case, before then going on to explain to me why it would make the UK more respected in the world for standing up to bullies.

You can see how wars start now.

I presume the British gov't signed the GFA on behalf of her majesty's gov't. Even the bit which says you can have your self determination if the majority doesn't want to be part of UK anymore. So on behalf of Queenie.

@bbclaurak
Downing Street sources insist it wasn't just the DUP intervention that meant no deal today - citizens' rights and ECJ still not finalised - if that's true it's less embarrassing but doesn't excatly bode well

@pmdfoster
Something really important happened today. For the first time in #brexit talks the rubber really hit the road. The phoney war is over. The chat, posturing and negotiating collided with political and constitutional ground realities. There will be more to come.

citizens' rights and ECJ still not finalised

Because it's getting close to Christmas, so there's a fudge shortage ?

Bottom line is EU citizens rights will have to be backstopped by the ECJ.

Speaking as an EU citizen, nothing less would do (and I suspect my country is of the same mind).

Sam Coates Times
@SamCoatesTimes
Varadkar makes life difficult for Theresa May relations with the DUP. "Preventing regulatory divergence and maintaining regulatory alignment" are "the same", he says

Tom Newton Dunn talking about 'NI-Eire'. Surprised he didn't give Éire it's proper accent. Oh dear. He must be annoyed with Ireland.

You know they are spitting when they adopt the term Eire. Does he refer to Dubh Linn or Baile Átha Cliath, too? Maith thú, a Thómas!

I think the term Éire refers to the entire island, so a bit weird anyways to say NI and Éire.

"Varadkar makes life difficult for Theresa May relations with the DUP"

Nah. She made it difficult for herself when she put gave them the balance of gov't. Their own doing entirely. Partisanship gives entitlement for favours.

A referendum that was called to heal the Tory party internal wounds has instead ripped them wide open and poured chilli powder on.
Open Tory civil war looks likely

The Brexit "cake" is being smashed against the reality wall

Like the crowd at an England match, throughout the 2nd half, I expect supporters of all stripes will be singing

"What a load of rubbish !"

oops. Thomás. I'm sure Tom would be annoyed with me for writing that incorrectly.