Westministenders: The Art of the Deal

[RedToothBrush]

Well Trump seems to have put his foot in it.

Not that this should come as a surprise. For all the talk of closer ties with the US that was never going to happen. All that was need was for Trump to over step once too many.

By chance (?) Barnier also raised questions about our commitment to working with the EU on security.

Its almost as if we are being asked to choose whom we look to for security.

Meanwhile it sounds like the divorce bill is sorted - though this may not be as settled as that, if it comes with conditions. The deal might also be backtracked on, seeing as that appears to be the done thing presently.

Talks on Ireland are stalemated with Ireland threating to veto. No sign of a breakthrough here yet.

Talks on EU citz rights are reportedly going backwards (again) rather than going forward.

All of this is theatre for a British audience though, with the UK agreeing to everything. Because they gave again their cards when a50 was triggered.

The crunch is coming on whether we move to stage two before Christmas. We have no time to lose.

I’m finding it really difficult to understand what the DUP thinks can be agreed if both a hard border and any special status for NI are non-negotiable. Presumably only some sort of electronic border control? There’s no other possible compromise from their perspective. Their refusal to back either might well bring down this government.

But, it is not the case that the GFA would have to be renegotiated because of Brexit. It exists outside that process and the two shouldn’t be conflated.

My reading of it, some time ago now, suggests that it only works because both UK and RoI are in the EU. The fudge of keeping the UK in the single market and customs union, would preserve the key bits.

So back to being between a rock and a hard place. If you have a hard border, the GFA has to bite the dust; if not, the DUP kick up an almighty stink.

Agree ISA, but it was a hell of a risk to take with their precious Union!

All true, and I agree... except... I believe the DUP think they're smart enough to spin the narrative so that it appears that they had nothing to do with the border going up, and it's all RoI's fault. Thus potentially dispelling RoI/EU support, rather than their own. Or at least leaving people just as torn in the middle; plus with a border in place, and the core supporters feeling nicely ascendant over their Catholic neighbours once again.

Well maybe, but the problem with this is that it's going to completely isolate them from any pragmatic unionist support. Which includes a lot of Protestants. Shit stirring about Irish Language Acts only gets you so far when the economy's collapsing. And, demographics.

No, even the Law Lords agreed that Brexit would not affect the GFA.

Jim Pickard
@PickardJE
some Tory MPs are already asking if DUP could be bought off again with yet more money, like a vending machine for political solutions

On the plus side for the Tories...

...if they don't blame the EU, and if they don't blame Ireland then they now can blame the DUP when it all goes tits up.

Personally I think today was the big chance to stop no deal. May got shafted because Ireland blew her cover. If she had got it all through before the DUP got wind of it, then she could have got to stage two and headed off the Irish veto.

Now she has a problem that will be difficult to fix.

The only way it would be possible to have no hard border, no Irish Sea border and leave the EU would be if we were in the EEA

#justsaying

So much for May's speech about how the 'and Unionist' bit of her party's name was really important.

Yep isa, that seems the only possibility.

May got shafted because Ireland blew her cover.

Boo hoo. She rushed into putting forward her name for PM. She rushed into appeasing her extreme right. She has brought this on herself.

Btw was listening to BBC news today and apparently a special deal for NI isn't possible under WTO rules... The EU and UK would have to give the same access to every WTO member.

Which is also interesting. And surprising that Nicola Sturgeon isn't aware of this.

That's dreadful, Somerville and noone brought to justice for assault
Too few English give a damn about what some of the British security forces did to ordinary people, even to young kids
So, few MPs give a damn

The DUP and the Tory right want immunity to the security forces for past crimes, even murders like Bloody Sunday or collision with Loyalist murders in NI and the RoI

I couldn't care less what happens to May but I can't help feeling agreeing to part of the U.K. at least staying aligned legislatively to the EU might have been a good start and made it more likely that other sensible compromises might have happened. Now we seem back to stalemate again.

I was half expecting that rtb. However I'd have been more than happy for them to agree to it then realise it binds everyone together. Besides, its what the DUP want 😀

Simon the Stylite @ Sime0nStylites

1. Thread re what I think happened today and implications for reaching sufficient progress by the EU summit. Usual caveats - my view, based on publi available

information, news reports etc.

1. The UK and the EU were very close to an agreement today. This was the view of numerous commentators and indeed the Irish Taoiseach who thought that the NI text had been agreed.
2. The deal with respect to NI involved a commitment to continued “regulatory environment” per the leaked text. No one in the EU at least has denied this AFAIK.
3. So what happened? The timeline provides remorseless circumstantial evidence. The text is leaked, the DUP says a clear No in a press conference, the PM speaks to the DUP, No deal (today) is announced.
4. Why did this happen? Theories abound - intra-UK negotiating breakdown, the EU tried to “bounce” the UK into a deal, there was never a deal on the table anyway etc etc.
5. I prefer a simpler theory. (A) The UK govt was very keen to do a deal pre Xmas to demonstrate progress and move to a transition agreement (key for business).
6. (B) A form of words was agreed re NI (regulatory alignment) that was assumed wld be sufficiently spinnable / bland / vague etc that the DUP wld agree. This was not discussed with them in advance.
7. (C) It was also assumed that the positive momentum generated by the agreement would enable the govt to ignore the views of the most Brexity MPs (a minority anyway).
8. As it turned out, (B) at least was not a good assumption and the DUP it seems was able to derail today’s agreement.

10. What happens next? Despite expressions of confidence from both the EU and the UK govt, prospects for agreement this weak are bleak. 11. If the outline above is correct, the UK has a major credibility issue with the EU, RoI and the DUP. This is one of the biggest “costs” from today. 12. The UK has four courses of action. 13. (A) To persuade the DUP that the current words don’t mean much - ie fudge. I wish them luck. The words do mean something or the EU/RoI wouldn’t have agreed to them. 14. (B) To persuade the EU and the RoI to change the current words. Good luck again. It’s pretty clear that the current words had already been agreed. They aren’t changing. 15. (C) Concede to the current words and risk losing the DUP’s suppport - for obvious reasons, a very difficult political calculation. 16. (D) Delay into next year and hope that the increase in pressure causes one of the other parties to shift it’s view. Needless to say, a very risky approach. 17. What will happen? That’s anyone’s guess but today has been very costly for the UK. /ends

In the replies there is suggestion that the DUP has been doing deals with Johnson.

I lost track of username, but a PP said a few pages back: For better or for worse, NI is part of the UK.
I'm interested to know if you remember what the for worse was like?

Just seen this. You refer to me.

Yes, I most certainly do remember. My husband is a Catholic from Belfast and I'm aware enough of how appallingly the soldiers sometimes behaved not to be remotely surprised at what happened to you. I think I've said this to you before under a different username (apologies if it was someone else, you may not be the only poster on here to have been sexually abused by the troops in NI) but I am very sorry to hear what happened to you. It isn't and wasn't ok.

It also doesn't affect the point I was making. NI is part of the UK and the majority of people continually vote for it to be so. Foster has a mandate to speak. She would be even more incompetent than she's already shown herself to be, if she didn't publicly oppose something so unacceptable to her constituents and party supporters. This is a fact as much as the abuses committed by British soldiers during the Troubles.

Yes peregrina, the gfa is massively underpinned by both having EU membership. A hard border wouldn't necessarily kill it, though would likely wound it. What's more likely to kill it will be citizens rights. Second class citizens born in this country is not going to go down well.

There is suggestion that the DUP has been doing deals with Johnson.

Interesting. Wonder if he is making them promises based on an expectation of unseating May soon.

www.thedetail.tv/articles/the-sea-border-that-s-there-already

Would recommend having a look at the above as it really undermines DUP opposition to a sea border. Because there is effectively a working one in place at the moment in the agri sector.

Personally, my reading of this is that the DUP would not complain if Brexit undermined the GFA.

NI Unionists are acutely aware that demographics and the inevitability of a more pluralistic and indeed secular society will eventually erode
their position. NI unionists have always felt under threat, not always without justification of course. SF electoral gains, the rise of the catholic middle class, the GFA etc are seen as a threat just as the IRA's border campaign was.

And they will respond to this as before, by becoming more entrenched. This is not about leaving the EU, it's a battle for the Union and a reassertion of Ulster Unionism as the authentic identity of NI.

There is absolutely no doubt that the DUP have been encouraged by soft words of support spoken by the hardline Brexiteers.

Alexander Clarkson @ AHPClarkson
I think who exactly in the Tory cabinet and the ERG the DUP has been talking with and how far their interests align with those of Theresa May or not needs to be looked at far more closely. Steve Baker, JRM, Johnson, Gove. And where the heck was Davis today?

Steve Bullock @ guitarmoog
I think this is a very good point. Baker was meeting Tory backbenchers I believe

It may have been coordinated with DUP, and not just them. Also, May is only reported as calling DUP, and is happy to let everyone think that, but it may have been a few ministers as well.

For what happens next, I think May has to take C, but a hard C. She is constantly undermined by cabinet members, tory MPs, and now Foster. She's PM at a crucial time, and was on the verge of making a difficult deal...

She's done the right thing by taking personal control. There's no parliamentary vote on this, but she'd have the numbers without DUP if there was. Face the DUP down. Threaten their bribe money. Tell them they can piss off into obscurity if they want.

It would be electorally appalling for DUP if the money was removed now. Tell them she asked HMT to cancel it right after fosters' presser. Tell them they lose all access to Brokenshire.

And do the same to the Ultras. Tell them they can start voting against the Gov and have the whip removed if they want. Sack the next cabinet member to speak out immediately.

UKGov's been teetering close to collapse for months, and trying to mollify everyone hasn't worked at all. It might collapse if she tries to impose order, but if there's no agreement at EUCO, it may well anyway, so the risk is not so high compared to the current baseline.

Six - thanks for sharing that. I'd forgotten having to walk over those disinfecting mats at the airport during the foot and mouth crisis!

Just seen on twitter from someone- Arlene saying DUP won't accept Brexit divergence that separates NI from the rest of the UK. Does that mean we can look forward to gay marriage in NI then?!

Missing in action today: Labour

Worth noting