Westministenders: Money, money, money

[RedToothBrush]

The big developments are that the government have signalled they are prepared to pay more and to involve the ECJ when it comes to citizens rights on condition that we move to talk of trade. But no apparent progress on NI. Which is significant with Ireland threatening to veto.

The EU has not changed its stance at all. Since Day 1.

There is always a worrying omission and lack of commitment to retain the Charter of Fundamental Rights. The bonfire begins.

Talk is of Green still going in a reshuffle, possibly with Gove replacing him as Deputy PM.

Coalition talks in Germany have broken down, and the British have got excited about it, whilst the German response have largely been a slight shrug.

Its been a much quieter week, despite the budget. Thank goodness. There are lots of outstanding issues that are lurking in the background like the Green one though.

The main message coming from the budget, has not been any new policy, but the dreadful economic forecast for the next few years.

www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/drawbridge-economics-the-brexit-reality-check-is-coming

Long read again - this time Adam Posen, formerly a member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, Brexit critic. The nuts and bolts of how Brexit will kill the economy.

Asinine comment following the article:

NR_BUCHSBAUM
November 18, 2017 at 18:39
Most commentators who look at the facts and do not have a political agenda state that the EU'a proportion of exports to and imports from the UK is falling while the UK's trade with the US and other non-EU nations is rising. China and the US as well as India do quite well outside the EU, and anyone who ignores Britain's special ties to the English-speaking nations is not dealing with the facts-Britain is a natural for Australia, New Zealand, the US, Canada and India and South Africa. Germany will lose one of its major export markets if the EU treats the UK poorly in these talks. So, the EU is losing one of its major and most prosperous and liberal members. It needs to work out a fair deal, not be vindictive.

Reply:
AKirby, November 19, 2017 at 17:34
I'm afraid your points have already been dismantled by the article, which you appear not to have read.

Today's Torygraph

.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/26/hard-won-kinship-between-britain-and-ireland-brexit-idiocy?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

As usual, Fintan O’Toole nails it. I fully expect UK’s right wing press to dust off all its insulting stereotypes about the Irish in the weeks to come.

amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/26/anna-soubry-interview-brexit-history-will-condemn-this-period
Anna Soubry on Brexit: ‘History will condemn those who haven’t tried to stop all this nonsense’
The Tory MP, who received death threats after being labelled a ‘Brexit mutineer’, talks frankly about how the episode has affected her and spells out her grave fears for her party and the nation

What concerns her now is the deafening silence emanating from her own side on this matter. “The party has got to call this out. But yet again, I feel it will be weak. They will not take the sort of robust action they need to. My whip said, ‘Sorry to hear about this’, but there’ll be no further interest because at least one of them [those attacking her] is a Conservative himself: Tom Borwick [leading light of Vote Leave, the son of the former Conservative MP for Kensington Victoria Borwick, and one of those encouraging people on social media to tell their MPs face to face what they make of their so-called attempts to thwart Brexit]. He hasn’t issued death threats, but by calling us anti-democratic, he is stoking and fuelling the fire. There’s something about these hard Brexiters: it’s fascinating, actually. Look at the language some of them use. It’s not enough that you accept the result [of the referendum]; it’s not enough that you voted to trigger article 50. Now it’s, ‘Yeah, yeah, but do you believe?’ It’s like the counter-revolutionary forces of Chairman Mao or Joe Stalin. It’s not enough that you went against everything you ever believed in; you have to sign up in blood. It’s like Orwell’s thought police and the reign of terror combined.”

Cracking interview with Anna Soubry.

Carole Cadwalladr‏
@carolecadwalla
What on earth is going on?
Did Vote Leave's chief strategist, Dom Cummings, tell a massive lie?
Or is there another explanation?
New Vote Leave investigation goes nowhere near far enough. My latest asks: why not??

Vote Leave donations: the dark ads, the mystery ‘letter’ – and Brexit’s online guru

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/25/vote-leave-dominic-cummings-online-guru-mystery-letter-dark-ads?CMP=share_btn_tw

Rest of her twitter thread with lots of embedded pictures here:

twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/934702340476755968

Can't stand Anna soubry
Brexit will be a disaster
She knows this
And she still voted to invoke A50

As Gove and Murdoch links in papers today, this old piece gives a little historical context.
www.theguardian.com/politics/2012/feb/26/schools-crusade-gove-murdoch?CMP=share_btn_tw

Agree with you there MrsR on Soubry (and Grieve). Theatrical posturings come cheap.

Don't want to sidetrack the above Soubry & Cadwalladr posts but another depressing development - "Johnson & Johnson pulls plan for UK research centre... citing political & economic weakness caused by Brexit, concerns over access to EU research funds and concerns over splitting UK from single market for medicines."
twitter.com/Scientists4EU/status/934550599974248448 quoting Telegraph. www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/11/25/johnson-johnson-pulls-plan-first-uk-research-centre/

Amanda Steadman @ londonmandy1
Went to a Brexit round table discussion this week - with senior representatives from about 20 UK PLCs across different sectors. It was Chatham House rules - so I can share some of the comments but I can't attribute them /1
The biggest issue by far for the majority of businesses in the room was the uncertainty about the future of their EEA national workforce /2
From the EEA employees side, the uncertainty is causing great stress. They ate looking to their employers for help, advice and assistance. Some businesses providing access to immigration law advice, some helping with residency applications /3
But some EEA nationals have had enough. One employer said it lost half of its EEA catering staff already /4
From the employer's side, the uncertainty makes workforce planning difficult. However, some are preparing for the worst. One major employer has already modelled the time and cost of replacing all of their EEA national workforce. /5
Another large employer in the pharmaceuticals sector had also started the process of working out how it would cope with the loss of their EEA workforce. They are looking at how jobs can be moved to the EU, ideally with the employee. /6
Another risk is that competing EU businesses are gearing up to poach staff – one employer reported two highly skilled staff had been poached by EU businesses recently. /7
In terms of future investment and creation of jobs in the UK, the picture was fairly bleak. /8
One employer said it was in the process of relocating jobs from London to Frankfurt and Brussels. Future investment will be diverted from the UK to the EU. /9
Another employer has a manufacturing base in the UK but they export 80% of their product to the EU. They may have to establish an EU hub and jobs will move. Their overseas parent company said if the Brexit vote had been a year earlier it wouldn’t have invested in the UK. /10
Another employer has a manufacturing base in the UK but they export 80% of their product to the EU. They may have to establish an EU hub and jobs will move. Their overseas parent company said if the Brexit vote had been a year earlier it wouldn’t have invested in the UK. /10
An employer in the life sciences sector said it has already pushed the button on its contingency plans - at significant expense to the business. Money is getting spent on dealing with the fall out from Brexit which could have been used for something more productive. /11
An employer in the medical sector said it was more likely that future investment will go to the EU. An employer in the legal sector said they have opened a hub in Dublin as a result of the Brexit vote. /12
Others concerns were skills shortages and upward pressure on wages. /13
Domestic workers can't be trained up immediately to plug the gaps left by EEA workers. Major skills shortages in the UK - will take time and investment to fix. /14
There are some "unskilled" roles commonly performed by EEA nationals which require training e.g. hospital cleaning. They couldn't be replaced at short notice. /15
As far as wage pressure was concerned, businesses reported seeing an upward pressure on pay in highly skilled roles. If a highly skilled EEA migrant has a choice between the EU and the UK – they will only come to the UK if the remuneration package makes it worthwhile. /16
And managing wage pressure at the lower skilled end is a challenge. Managing the National Living Wage rises was enough for some sectors e.g. care / hospitality / leisure. One employer said it was investigating increased automation to offset upward wage pressure. /17
A critical issue for some was the mutual recognition of professional qualifications – important where you have British nationals making decisions for the EU part of the business. If it doesn't continue then the work will have to be moved to the EU. /18
There was more, but I think you get the gist.

So, yeah, not a lot of love in the room for Brexit from British business. In fact, there was none. /End

Stewart Joseph @ StewartJoseph
Any tech companies present? There’s currently a skills shortage in that sector with many EEA nationals filling the gap. Visas should be available under current rules, but not ideal. Your thoughts?

Amanda Steadman @ londonmandy1
No tech companies. Yes I'm sure they'll get their visas but query length & whether they'll be able to bring families. Will they come if they can't put down roots? Will they want to come if UK economy goes into decline? Will elsewhere be more attractive?

Tech person get a visa? Not that simple.

DH has a colleague who earns way more than the cut off. He is British and has been living abroad with wife. Wife is none EU. They decided to return to the UK. Finding a job for him was easy. There is a huge skill shortage in tech and wages are being driven up. DH has been the beneficiary of this trend and he knows it's widespread in the industry.

The colleague's wife has been refused a visa. The company have now deployed lawyer and political pressure.

The idea that EU nationals and their partners will be treated better is the land of fantasy. DH's employer is particularly selective in who it hires and has a certain degree of status. If this is happening to one of their British employees then God help anyone else.

The wife is ANZAC too. Not from anywhere there might be language, political or race queries that the home office can feed off.

I'm sure she will get her visa in the end, because who you are and who you work for matters. Which doesn't not make me feel any better in the slightest.

Bur Red - did no one tell them about the 10 jobs being created in the Wigan Ice Rink? I think a lot of us would be a little more reconciled to Brexit, if there was some serious work going on to deal with the effects.

As for that rubbish about Britain is a natural for Australia, New Zealand, the US, Canada and India and South Africa. Which century is the chump living in. Not heard of Lord North? Not heard of Aus & NZ finding new markets much nearer to home after the UK joined the Common Market - furthermore, markets with young, growing, and aspirational citizens? Not heard that the whites no longer rule in South Africa?

In a couple of years Wigan Ice Rink will be threatened with closure as no one can afford to go there anymore.

I'm baffled how many in England are so ignorant about Ireland when it's so much easier now to educate oneself

Deliberate ignorance is a sign of limited mental capability IMHO.

Sorry, but it's true.

Look at all the stupid people you know, and you'll see it's not because they can't learn. It's because they won't.

In a couple of years Wigan Ice Rink will be threatened with closure as no one can afford to go there anymore.

As above, so below.

Like many in the UK, a nearby local authority has been struggling to keep all it's leisure centres open. One initiative was to offer an advance years membership with a 1/3 discount if purchased upfront. However the uptake was very poor, as they had already had discussions about "temporarily" closing certain centres, and people (like me) made some discreet enquiries and found that in the event of any (or all) of their centres closing, there were no refunds.

However, the prize may be too great. I can just imagine how many "city living" apartments (with fuck all parking) could be built in the footprint of a lot of municipal facilities.

There has to be some sort of line on graph below which as a whole the UK effectively can't actually buy the capitalist output of other nations, having deflated it's purchasing capacity. After all, if the average wage is £0, and there's no money left over after rent, who will buy the latest shiny.

I'm glad I'm closer to the grave than cradle.

www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-hunt-prepares-for-tory-leadership-bid-as-he-sets-his-sights-on-downing-street-a3701931.html?amp
Jeremy Hunt prepares for Tory leadership bid as he sets his sights on Downing Street

If the Tories are desparate to avoid a right wing candidate then Hunt would be a good bet for them.

Hunt of late has been like May pre referendum ... it's all been BoGo.

Ideally we need a leader who they feel they can win an election with, and then call one ....

So the Tories would be led by another ex-minister who entirely lacks in charisma and has spectacularly failed in managing his own ministry? I wish they'd just put themselves out of their misery, it became embarrassing months ago, I haven't even the words to articulate what it is now.

So the Tories would be led by another ex-minister who entirely lacks in charisma and has spectacularly failed in managing his own ministry?

It's almost like it's in the job description :)

If the Tories are desparate to avoid a right wing candidate then Hunt would be a good bet for them.

If Jeremy "NHS privatiser" Hunt is regarded as "not right wing" then I think that's the Overton window in a nutshell.

Hunt of late has been like May pre referendum ... it's all been BoGo.

You've noticed the similarity too then. It's flying under the radar.

Hunt is regarded as a sensible compared to the likes of Rees-Mogg and Johnson.

In a choice between those three, who would you pick? Because that's effectively the type of choice it could be.

The fact I have to ask here is almost an answer in itself ...

Is Hunt Brexit, Leave, or Remain ?

(Notice I distinguish Brexit/Leave).

Remain but is now a paid up supporter. Has apparently said he might vote differently with benefit of hindsight