@davidallengreen
"MPs in the House of Commons audibly gasped"
Let's unpack this.
1/The UK will leave the EU on 29 March 2019 by automatic operation of law.
This is the default position - and this is what will happen unless something exceptional happens.
2/There are three broad exceptions to the UK leaving the EU on 29 March 2019.
None of which are currently likely.
3/First: the UK and EU can agree an extension.
UK stays a full member oof EU until an agreed date after March 2019.
4/ Second: an alternative date can be agreed as part of an overall exit deal. This, however, requires the deal to be in place before March 2019.
5/Third: Article 50 is revoked (or somehow paused).
This is (probably) legally possible as long as UK is acting in good faith (rather than as a negotiation ploy to re-start clock).
6/Now look at three options - and the one thing they have in common.
All three are outside the direct control of the UK parliament.
Parliament cannot now vote directly to keep us in EU.
Too late: Article 50 has been triggered.
7The best parliament can do is to mandate the UK government to request to the EU that Article 50 is revoked (or suspended).
But it is a matter for the EU whether that would be accepted. Parliamentary vote, by itself, does not trump Article 50.
8/That said: if UK is sincere then likely that EU will accept the revocation.
But that cannot be guaranteed. It would not flow directly from the parliamentary vote.
A parliamentary vote could also be ignored. This is not a fanciful risk.
9/And so: back to the "audible gasp".
Yes: UK would be out of the EU without a deal if a deal is voted down by parliament, because that is how Article 50 will work.
10/This outcome is indeed gasp-worthy. It even warrants hyperventilation. It is terrifying.
But: MPs should not be surprised. This is the natural and direct consequence of voting for the A50 notification.
11/If MPs are now gasping at the prospect of the UK leaving the EU without a deal, automatically on 29 March 2019, then they did not understand what they were voting for.
12/This is the default position - not inevitable because of the three exceptions - but a firm presumption unless something exceptional happens.
13/Ans so, this is what today's concession, while welcome, is not enough.
Parliament should assert the power to be able to instruct HMG to ask EU for A50 to be revoked/suspended if there is no deal.
14/This will not mean that HMG has to make such a request. Nor does it guarantee EU will accept such a request.
But it means that the only relevant exception can apply, when it otherwise would not.
15/We are still in the early days of the Bill's passage.
Still can be amended further by MPs. Also by Lords.
Do not be surprised if such an amendment is passed.
16
It is never too late to do the right thing.
The "audible gasp" may mean MPs now realise the gravity of what they have done in triggering A50. If so, it is to be welcomed.
Even though they should have known better.
/end