Westminstenders: Sucking up to the 'enemy'

[RedToothBrush]

Phil Hammond called the EU the enemy. Then retracted it. A classic political move, to pitch to one group and then say you didn't mean it after all.

This is the UK's negotiation strategy. Because the negotiation isn't really with the EU. Its the ongoing debate over the what leaving the EU actually means since it wasn't officially defined prior to the referendum and has been left to politicians to say its one thing to persuade people to support them and then decided no that's not really what they meant after all.

The whole thing makes it impossible for the EU to respond to us, because we don't appear to know what we want.

The EU have been explicit in their position. So things they can not do because of the limitations of trade rules and EU law. Its possible work arounds could be possible for some things - but certainly not all which too many Brexiteers fail to acknowledge.

And then there is the a50 deadline which is like a snake coiled around May's neck slowly strangling her. A self imposed screwing of our negotiating position. One that kills off our Brexit options and ups the stakes into a brinkmanship battle - not with the EU but between the hardlines and the sane. Its not even about remaining, though that option might well end up being the only option left on the table through our own folly, rather than out of EU malice.

The longer we take to work out what we want the higher the stake become and the more we destroy the foundations of our economy in the meantime, even if we do stay in.

We have only just noticed that we've lost money worth 25% of our GDP and we have no net assets anymore, when in early 2016 we had significant assets. Project Fear they said was wrong. Well was it?

We are flat broke as a nation.

Then there is the Great Repel Bill. The Bill was supposed to be in the Commons this week. It was delayed a week due to the sheer number of amendments. There are nearly a dozen with enough Tory rebels to make them stick. Including one for parliament to have a meaningful vote on what option we take - including no deal. If parliament rejected this, we would be left in a situation where we sure as hell better hope a50 is reversible or we could end up unlawfully leave the EU by accident!

And the Lords could be fun for the Repel Bill. The Labour whip has vowed to examine every amendment properly even if the commons don't. And they are free and within their rights to do so.

Still May could exit stage left. Or left with egg all over her face as she has to suck up to the 'enemy' for being such a tool for the last 18months, because she hasn't made progress on the negotiations that really matter. The Tory party ones.

Whichever way you cut it, you can be sure on only one thing: it will go to the wire for both. And possibly beyond with an eleventh hour extension to prevent chaos.

There are hints that the public mood might be changing. Not fast enough. Yet. Interest rates? A break in the triple lock? Phil's budget sure will be interesting. Especially as Brexiteers want money to prepare and protect us from a no deal scenario which they also tell us will be just fine and won't be a problem. Bye Bye NHS, don't get flu this winter. As a note once infamously said: 'There's no many left'.

We are Greece. Only worse. And out of pressure and deadlines we alone created. We just haven't realised it. Yet.

And if this doesn't make you cringe and brace yourself in horror:

Danny Kemp‏ @dannyctkemp
May wants to take the floor at EU summit dinner on Thursday to explain Brexit policy to fellow leaders, senior official says

Just remember her party speech and think: What could possibly go wrong...

Will this Brexit shambles be the deathknell of the Tory party, or will they rise like cockroaches after nuclear catastrophe ?

Interestingly enough, an entomologist on the Infinite Monkey Cage suggested that coackroaches resistance to radiation may be rooted in the fact that it's DNA is only susceptible to change few a few moments during it's life. Unlike (say) human DNA, which is permanently pliable.

What this says about the Tory party, I couldn't possibly say.

Math - thanks for your insights on the McKinsey report. Just to think that your insights were for free,rather than the, what was it, £1.9 m paid to McKinsey? Although actually it is good that some expertise is being sought.Perhaps it's like a deal, any expert is better than no expert.

We don't know if the publicly available McKinsey synopsis reflects advice the gov't are using, but I bet it does, as some government sound bites just sound too familiar.

Fundamentally the report concludes that systemic UK failings are not (as we knew) due to the EU, It is almost as if the underlying theme of the report is that the innate culture or character here holds us back.

Interesting that on the one hand, many initial MN responses to the report were to criticise it for being too American, with spellings etc.Yet on the other hand, the author's underlying response seems to criticise the UK for not being American enough.Although pursuing the American dream hasn't been working there either.

NBC report on the Irish Border, Brexit and the Troubles
www.nbcnews.com/specials/brexit-ireland-border

Interesting that on the one hand, many initial MN responses to the report were to criticise it for being too American, with spellings etc.Yet on the other hand, the author's underlying response seems to criticise the UK for not being American enough.Although pursuing the American dream hasn't been working there either.

Which is why Brexit is following The British Dream (wtf that is).

I would be very surprised if the impact assessments that the govt. are using were created by McKinsey. First, because of the depth of knowledge and detailed data (e.g. detailed input/output tables) that would be needed to model sectoral impacts, and second, because of the risk that the results might be leaked. In fact, I would be very worried if the McKinsey report was all they had!

*The British dream
*
But that is the problem isn't it? There is no collective vision of what the dream is. What we should have done of course, is celebrated our bunting,Victoria sponges and cricket as one piece of a 28 piece jigsaw puzzle with other pieces depicting baguettes,boules and bratwurst. There's an existential crisis not only in the Tory party but in the country as a whole.

Good Bloomberg article up thread too" “This is the sharpest version of a 200-year-old division in the Conservative Party, between nationalism and economic liberalism,” said Stewart Wood, a Labour member of the House of Lords, and former advisor to Prime Minister Gordon Brown. “Any time May puts any flesh on the bones of a strategy, she loses support from one side or the other. There’s no solution.”

MissMoon there must be some detailed impact assessments too containing data and cross fertilisation between what McKinsey were doing and those working on the impact assessments. However the McKinsey report cost a lot and must be being used for something.All that talk of finding an (elusive) imaginative solution seemed lifted from the McKinsey summary.

I believe the key word here is omnishambles.

From the referendum offered by a cocky Tory prime minister to discipline his swivel eyed loon brexiter backbenchers which blew up in his face, to the false prospectus offered by the same loons to an ignorant, ill educated, xenophobic population of left-behinds asking them to vote leave, to the massive act of collective lemming suicide undertaken by the same population, to the inept manoeuvrings of a lame duck Maybot to try and make the best out of the hand she was dealt, to the current farce of a negotiation we're watching right now.

It's beyond a joke. But as they say, we remain voters will mostly be fine. We're educated, solvent, financially capable of withstanding the massive fiscal hit coming our way when we leap off the cliff edge in march 2019.

The brexiters will finally understand what it's like to lose the crappy roof from over your head, the benefits that put food on your table, the NHS which deals with your endless self-inflicted illnesses. Thankfully however, you'll have your sovereignty back and you can eat the Union Jack for breakfast, lunch and dinner whilst also staring at it uttering the mantra 'take back control' when you're lying on a hospital trolley for 24hrs waiting to be seen within what's left of a rump NHS in the low tax, low regulation Singapore that we'll become.

mathanxiety

Re the McInsey report - 100% agree with the poor management.

I am not so convinced by their criticisms of the public sector. I have worked in both public and private. They each had their faults. However my civil service days were spent in rather specialised divisions, where they tended to hire experts for the work, so we tended not to be dogged by the 'gifted amateur' problems of other departments. Certainly they were too inflexible about promotions. But as for management consultants - I have mentioned this before - it was infuriating to see suggestions from expensive management consultants put forward, when the staff had already suggested those improvements and had them dismissed. (Contrast this with something I read about women - an idea put forward by them is dismissed until it's put forward by a couple of men, when it's latched upon as a great idea - substitute 'internal staff' and 'consultants' and you get the idea.)

In other areas e.g.having worked for a large bank, I saw just as much waste, inefficiency and bureaucracy.

Schooling
So I don't see any of that being even understood, let alone worked on.
I have to agree there too, to a large extent. However politics rears its head again. The post 2010 Tories have deliberately moved away from some of these ideas. Again, I have first hand experience of this. Local Management of Schools was introduced in the early 90s in the dying days of Thatcherism/Major. It was pretty tough to implement at first, but gradually we got used to it and were able to use it to our advantage e.g. as a small village school, we were able to tender for quotes from local businesses to paint the classrooms, when we felt they needed it, instead of the County bringing in a large firm to their own timetable. We could choose which supplies to buy and from whom. So we made this work.

Don't get me started on Academies and Free schools which IMO which were primarily designed to cut out Local Authorities, especially if they were Labour. Academies, initially a Labour idea, have been firmly taken up by the Tories, and turned into Multi-Academy Trusts, where in one example quoted the Chief Executive pays himself a salary of c. £350,000 and deals with 9 schools, whereas the Director of Education for the LEA has 200 schools in their charge with a salary of £150,000. Yet schools are being starved of cash. It was notable that when there was a proposal to Academise all schools during the last Parliament, an outcry from Tory led councils, e.g. Hampshire and Oxfordshire, scuppered it.

The rest of your comments I fully agree with, and it's absolutely nothing to do with the EU. I would say that the class system has become more entrenched now and the enthusiasm which pertained after the war to build a better society has gone.

Just to think that your insights were for free,rather than the, what was it, £1.9 m paid to McKinsey?

Ha, posted my diatribe before I read this statement. Having made this point myself before I saw this, I have to agree.

@EuropeElects
UK: European Union Membership Referendum, Survation poll:
Remain
Scotland: 67%
London: 59%
Northern Ireland: 54%
Wales: 52%
England: 50%

The Remain vote has gone down in London and NI

That's all part of poor management though - not having a mechanism to solicit home grown ideas, or a means of modeling them. It bespeaks a very compartmentalised organisation. Nobody wants to give up their little feudal strongholds, admit someone else might have a better idea.

However the McKinsey report cost a lot and must be being used for something.
I wouldn't count on it. Again, part of poor management and only looking to short term party political considerations involves paying lip service to suggestions while changing nothing. It can be filed under "yet another example of waste of the public purse".

strengthen the management of capital projects
This jumped out at me in light of the Grenfell disaster.

McKinsey is just a stepping stone from Mac Gregor and the miners onwards.

With regard to public services, since the rise in professionalisation and unionisation of the professions, capitalism from Taylor onwards have sought to de skill and disempower. There's a gendered aspect to this de skilling as many of the professions had become female dominated.

In the 1990s, the rot started in Further and Higher education with the creation of unelected quango HEFC to distribute what were then reasonably vast pubic money budgets. My FE college was unfortunate enough to have one of the many rascal principals who had several nice holidays, amongst other treats, courtesy of his free reign over the budget. They got rid of conditions of service, and mass bargaining and the rot spread through health service, welfare and schools.

This report is just a staging post on what's been a half century of decimation of public accountability and disempowering of public service workers. With the resultant travesty which is the NHS, schools and civil service.

I am amazed that the remain vote is maintaining its strength, lala when the official press and our visitors are so well funded.

strengthen the management of capital projects
This jumped out at me in light of the Grenfell disaster.

But this was caused as much by party dogma, that it must be done for the lowest price and that 'health and safety' considerations were too much red tape.

I am amazed that the remain vote is maintaining its strength, lala when the official press and our visitors are so well funded.

Amazing things do happen sometimes - consider the vilification of Corbyn and the talking up of UKIP prior to the GE and then the subsequent total collapse of UKIP (which I did see coming) and the resurgence of Labour.

Law and policy @ davidallengreen
Query: What do you think will be in place on (current) Brexit Day 29 March 2019?

On the basis of available information today.

A50 extension. Becoming less confident by the day, but I don't see the UK having a workable idea for the transition in time to agree.

Steve Analyst @ EmperorsNewC
A50 extension. Becoming less confident by the day, but I don't see the UK having a workable idea for the transition in time to agree.

Alexander Clarkson @ APHClarkson
Extension I could see. Brexiteers would block revocation because of the strong likelihood the UK wouldn't pull the Article 50 trigger again.

Law and Policy @ Davidallengreen
My view: Brexit deal more or less on terms of EU Guidelines, and/or A50 extension/transition period on basis of Acquis.

Extension limbo provides far more certainty than transition limbo.

Jochem Springer @ jochemspringer
Problem of transition is that it might require approval of all FTA (Canada), customs union and EEA partners (Norway).

Law and Policy @ davidallengreen
A lot of sensible Brexit commentators seeing merits of A50 extension, as opposed to transition. Worth watching.

The Leavers pressing for "No Deal" may, in reality, be forcing an A50 extension for UK to stay in EU longer.

If so, a wonderful irony.

There are people complaining that DAG is too optimistic here. Reality is UK (and to some extent the EU) perhaps have few alternative viable options. The government has proved itself not to be sensible in invoking a50 but to go forward with no deal would be something else entirely.

Faisal Islam @ faisalislam
71 years old
Average age of the parliamentarians telling PM to declare WTO terms with Europe now, if no progress to trade talks at EU summit

Faisal Islam @ faisalislam
PM was told in Brexit Cabinet by a top Cabinet minister - Brexit unsustainable unless carry young

Theresa May has published an open letter on Facebook this morning

PM OPEN LETTER

As I travel to Brussels today, I know that many people will be looking to us – the leaders of the 28 nations in the European Union – to demonstrate we are putting people first.

I have been clear throughout this process that citizens’ rights are my first priority. And I know my fellow leaders have the same objective: to safeguard the rights of EU nationals living in the UK and UK nationals living in the EU.

I want to give reassurance that this issue remains a priority, that we are united on the key principles, and that the focus over the weeks to come will be delivering an agreement that works for people here in the UK, and people in the EU.

When we started this process, some accused us of treating EU nationals as bargaining chips. Nothing could have been further from the truth. EU citizens who have made their lives in the UK have made a huge contribution to our country. And we want them and their families to stay. I couldn’t be clearer: EU citizens living lawfully in the UK today will be able to stay.

But this agreement will not only provide certainty about residence, but also healthcare, pensions and other benefits. It will mean that EU citizens who have paid into the UK system – and UK nationals into the system of an EU27 country – can benefit from what they’ve put in. It will enable families who have built their lives together in the EU and UK to stay together. And it will provide guarantees that the rights of those UK nationals currently living in the EU, and EU citizens currently living in the UK will not diverge over time.

What that leaves us with is a small number of important points to finalise. That is to be expected at this point in negotiations. We are in touching distance of agreement. I know both sides will consider each other's proposals for finalising the agreement with an open mind And with flexibility and creativity on both sides, I am confident that we can conclude discussions on citizens’ rights in the coming weeks.

I know there is real anxiety about how the agreement will be implemented. People are concerned that the process will be complicated and bureaucratic, and will put up hurdles that are difficult to overcome. I want to provide reassurance here too.

We are developing a streamlined digital process for those applying for settled status in the UK in the future. This process will be designed with users in mind, and we will engage with them every step of the way. We will keep the cost as low as possible – no more than the cost of a UK passport. The criteria applied will be simple, transparent and strictly in accordance with the Withdrawal Agreement. People applying will not have to account for every trip they have taken in and out of the UK and will no longer have to demonstrate Comprehensive Sickness Insurance as they currently have to under EU rules. And importantly, for any EU citizen who holds Permanent Residence under the old scheme, there will be a simple process put in place to swap their current status for UK settled status.

To keep development of the system on track, the Government is also setting up a User Group that will include representatives of EU citizens in the UK, and digital, technical and legal experts. This group will meet regularly, ensuring the process is transparent and responds properly to users’ needs. And we recognise that British nationals living in the EU27 will be similarly concerned about potential changes to processes after the UK leaves the EU. We have repeatedly flagged these issues during the negotiations. And we are keen to work closely with EU Member States to ensure their processes are equally streamlined.

We want people to stay and we want families to stay together. We hugely value the contributions that EU nationals make to the economic, social and cultural fabric of the UK. And I know that Member States value equally UK nationals living in their communities. I hope that these reassurances, alongside those made by both the UK and the European Commission last week, will provide further helpful certainty to the four million people who were understandably anxious about what Brexit would mean for their futures.

Remember PMQs when Cameron shouted at Corbyn to put on a tie and stand down for the good of his party? Wonder what Dave thinks now when he sees Corbyn going up against May, the Tories falling apart and himself down in history as the man who lost the referendum.

I enjoyed that article about the NI border. The personal stories really help to put it into perspective.

The Remain vote has gone down in London and NI

Yougov was showing the opposite to that in London in its last survey. Showed it strengthening.

I have been clear throughout this process that citizens’ rights are my first priority.

So a lie at the second sentence. Not really a good start, Treeza.

(That's my second comment. My first was: bollocks)

Thanks you brilliant lot. I just had great news from the school Governors.

Somerville good to hear!

Somerville

Great news Somerville!