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Brexit

Westminstenders: Sucking up to the 'enemy'

979 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/10/2017 18:09

Phil Hammond called the EU the enemy. Then retracted it. A classic political move, to pitch to one group and then say you didn't mean it after all.

This is the UK's negotiation strategy. Because the negotiation isn't really with the EU. Its the ongoing debate over the what leaving the EU actually means since it wasn't officially defined prior to the referendum and has been left to politicians to say its one thing to persuade people to support them and then decided no that's not really what they meant after all.

The whole thing makes it impossible for the EU to respond to us, because we don't appear to know what we want.

The EU have been explicit in their position. So things they can not do because of the limitations of trade rules and EU law. Its possible work arounds could be possible for some things - but certainly not all which too many Brexiteers fail to acknowledge.

And then there is the a50 deadline which is like a snake coiled around May's neck slowly strangling her. A self imposed screwing of our negotiating position. One that kills off our Brexit options and ups the stakes into a brinkmanship battle - not with the EU but between the hardlines and the sane. Its not even about remaining, though that option might well end up being the only option left on the table through our own folly, rather than out of EU malice.

The longer we take to work out what we want the higher the stake become and the more we destroy the foundations of our economy in the meantime, even if we do stay in.

We have only just noticed that we've lost money worth 25% of our GDP and we have no net assets anymore, when in early 2016 we had significant assets. Project Fear they said was wrong. Well was it?

We are flat broke as a nation.

Then there is the Great Repel Bill. The Bill was supposed to be in the Commons this week. It was delayed a week due to the sheer number of amendments. There are nearly a dozen with enough Tory rebels to make them stick. Including one for parliament to have a meaningful vote on what option we take - including no deal. If parliament rejected this, we would be left in a situation where we sure as hell better hope a50 is reversible or we could end up unlawfully leave the EU by accident!

And the Lords could be fun for the Repel Bill. The Labour whip has vowed to examine every amendment properly even if the commons don't. And they are free and within their rights to do so.

Still May could exit stage left. Or left with egg all over her face as she has to suck up to the 'enemy' for being such a tool for the last 18months, because she hasn't made progress on the negotiations that really matter. The Tory party ones.

Whichever way you cut it, you can be sure on only one thing: it will go to the wire for both. And possibly beyond with an eleventh hour extension to prevent chaos.

There are hints that the public mood might be changing. Not fast enough. Yet. Interest rates? A break in the triple lock? Phil's budget sure will be interesting. Especially as Brexiteers want money to prepare and protect us from a no deal scenario which they also tell us will be just fine and won't be a problem. Bye Bye NHS, don't get flu this winter. As a note once infamously said: 'There's no many left'.

We are Greece. Only worse. And out of pressure and deadlines we alone created. We just haven't realised it. Yet.

And if this doesn't make you cringe and brace yourself in horror:

Danny Kemp‏ @dannyctkemp
May wants to take the floor at EU summit dinner on Thursday to explain Brexit policy to fellow leaders, senior official says

Just remember her party speech and think: What could possibly go wrong...

OP posts:
Thread gallery
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woman11017 · 18/10/2017 21:32

@ChukaUmunna
Every day it is becoming clear that the terms on which Brexit was sold are impossible to deliver.

@f_grovewhite
Withdrawal Bill delayed, again. No trade talks w/ EU til Dec. No trade deals til 2020s. When did Govt last meet one of its Brexit deadlines?

And a government which can't/won't have votes it will lose. Not really a government then is it?

HesterThrale · 18/10/2017 21:32

lala
Why can't Sarah Wollaston be the new Conservative Party leader

I know what you mean, but I wouldn't want a relatively decent Tory leader in case it improved their election chances.

BigChocFrenzy · 18/10/2017 21:36

They'd get rid of any leader like Wollaston, as soon as she got them into power
Vote Wollaston, get Redwood a few months later ?

BigChocFrenzy · 18/10/2017 21:40

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2017/1017/913002-govt-may-weigh-border-demand-in-brexit-talks-reports/

The [RoI] Government is reportedly considering pushing for guarantees that no border will be reimposed on the island of Ireland
as the price for allowing Brexit talks to move ahead.
.....
One of the considerations being mulled is whether to seek to have such a commitment inserted into a summit declaration or if a verbal pledge would be sufficient, according to the people.
....
Such wording would effectively commit the UK and the EU to the idea of a bespoke deal for Northern Ireland,
should the two sides fail to reach the type of a free-trade accord that would eliminate the need for a border.

QuentinSummers · 18/10/2017 22:07

.

woman11017 · 18/10/2017 22:20

@faisalislam

TOry Brexiteers - Redwood, Paterson, Lawson, Lilley & Labour's Kate Hoey and Stringer have written to the PM to advise a walkout of talks...

woman11017 · 18/10/2017 22:23

@faisalislam
... Redwood/ Hoey etc advising that a "clear line be drawn in the sand" and if no progress declare assumption of WTO terms by 30 March 2019

Hope Hoey is chucked out of labour now.

TheElementsSong · 18/10/2017 22:24

Hope Hoey is chucked out of labour now.

She’s fascinatingly impervious to admonition, whether from labour leadership or the electorate.

woman11017 · 18/10/2017 22:26

The letters:

Westminstenders: Sucking up to the 'enemy'
woman11017 · 18/10/2017 22:27

part 2
Any guesses how much moolah is riding with this?

Westminstenders: Sucking up to the 'enemy'
BigChocFrenzy · 18/10/2017 22:28

This is what they want ... or maybe this is what we already have:

Westminstenders: Sucking up to the 'enemy'
woman11017 · 18/10/2017 22:30

@faisalislam
Leader of Opposition @jeremycorbyn going to Brussels too. He will be meeting 3 EU Prime ministers & chief Brexit negotiator @MichelBarnier
@faisalislam r
Corbyn says that he is ready to take over from Government's "ever more damaging ... Brexit bungling"
@bucket92
Corbyn is the prime minister.

Peregrina · 18/10/2017 22:44

Sarah Wollaston needs to either cross the floor or sit as an independent.
As with the Tory MEP who defied the whip the other day, the party she belongs to has almost certainly changed from the one she thought it was.

HesterThrale · 18/10/2017 22:48

And Kate Hoey needs to cross the floor... or something.

woman11017 · 18/10/2017 22:52

Being called a 'traitor' doesn't quite have the same power any more.
Corbyn’s visit to Brussels came after pro-Brexit Tory MPs wrote to the Labour leader to accuse him of undermining Britain’s negotiating stance by refusing to back preparations for a no-deal outcome
Grin

woman11017 · 18/10/2017 22:56

@JolyonMaugham
Gauke corked.
@iankatz1000
Work + Pensions secretary David Gauke pulled frm #newsnight 2.5 hrs before scheduled interview on universal credit..."circumstances changed"

woman11017 · 18/10/2017 22:58

Last one, sorry:

Westminstenders: Sucking up to the 'enemy'
BigChocFrenzy · 18/10/2017 23:27

Thinking of JC as PM, I keep remembering "A Very British Coup"

In rl, there were several plots against the very moderate Labour PM Harold Wilson
and of course that serving general recently seemed to hint that he couldn't accept a PM who had said he wouldn't ever use Trident.

imo, JC's greatest danger would be before becoming PM, if he looked likely to be, iyswim

  • much easier to nobble him before he has the apparatus of power

Some hard right Tories / military, who regard him as a traitor - who regard any disagreement by anyone to Tory govt policy as treason - might attempt to organise this
All that demonisation might prove useful in gaining support / acceptance of this

Cailleach1 · 18/10/2017 23:48

Faisal Islam on Sky is doing a much better job on reporting about Brexit than the BBC.

Ah, yes the agencies. Faisal Islam said he didn't know their importance until the letter from the Japanese had the European Medicines Agency as bullet point 9 of their requests in their concerned letter.

But it is going and the 27 are now deciding where it will be located in the EU. I expect May will again be given her 20/30 minutes slot after the real discussions are over at the dinner. I think she spoke in the early hours of the morning last time.

Cailleach1 · 19/10/2017 00:15

It is likely to be “cold service” only, one Brussels source said, with Ms May's speaking slot limited to the coffee at the end.

The set-up raises the prospect of a repeat of what happened at last October’s summit, when the Prime Minister was given just five minutes to speak – with no debate – at 1am on that occasion.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-talks-eu-leaders-dinner-theresa-may-uk-rebuff-setback-citizens-a8007746.html

The gov't keep trying to make it political rather than technical. It is bizarre really. Even DD can't be bothered to turn up for all the negotiations, but here they are saying they want to up the ante with the Council members.

The whole thing is irritating. They wasted time they didn't have on a general election and are now trying to extend the timeframe. If they wanted a general election, they should have had it before triggering A50.

mathanxiety · 19/10/2017 02:54

Wrt the McKinsey report -
I noted the US spelling too - the 'math' and 'labor'. Could they not at least dress it up for a UK audience? It makes me wonder just how well they understand the UK

The report is designed for an American business (investing) audience too.

The authors are Daniel Mikkelson (BA, MA, and MPhil, Oxford), and Vivian Hunt "previously named as one of the top ten 'most influential black people in Britain' by the Powerlist Foundation, and The Financial Times identified her as one of the “European Women to Watch...more recently as one of the 30 most influential people in the City of London....Vivian is on the board of several important business groups in the United Kingdom, including BritishAmerican Business, the CBI London Council, and the Mayor of London’s Business Advisory Board. She is also a member of the Trilateral Commission. Vivian is a trustee of The Henry Smith Charity, chair of HRH Prince of Wales’ Business in the Community’s “Seeing is Believing” programme, and a reader for the Queen’s Anniversary Prize. She sits on the Advisory Council of the Tate Modern and the Southbank Centre, the Teach First’s Business Leaders’ Council, and is on the Board of the US–UK Fulbright Commission.

Vivian is an alumna of Harvard College and received her MBA from Harvard Business School. She has also been awarded an Honorary Doctorate of Law from Warwick University"

Their assessment of the issue of poor management strikes me as 'nail on the head'.

Wrt public sector productivity -
Money could be better spent through more rigorous, evidence-based prioritization of policy and funding, and more strategic management of the government’s balance sheet, including property and asset disposals. Government departments could improve efficiency by promoting a more flexible workforce, both within and across departments. When it comes to functional capabilities, the public sector should develop private sector–style procurement and supply-chain expertise, strengthen the management of capital projects, and invest in big data and advanced analytics to streamline operations and inform decisions.

Reading between the lines is mind-boggling. Here is what is needed, apart from more flexibility/less rigidity (strict adherence to rank and remit?) in the public sector:

  • evidence-based prioritization of policy and funding
  • private sector–style procurement and supply-chain expertise
  • strengthen the management of capital projects
  • invest in big data and advanced analytics to streamline operations and inform decisions
...all very glaring problems. This is the result of hiring amateurs as managers and also I suspect the result of clientelism in government (the spending of taxpayer money to buy votes in other words).

They are talking about £50bn annually being pissed against a wall. They are describing a situation that operates on irrational principles.

In the area of education and skills, again, nail on the head again. It is also important to engage parents and the community, especially in the early years; to devolve power at the school level; and to create a culture of rigor. Creating a culture of rigour across the board and not just in private/elite schools, engaging the parents and community, devolving power at the school level - all would work directly against the maintenance of central control, while creating a sense of individual empowerment would threaten the class system. So I don't see any of that being even understood, let alone worked on.

The housing bottleneck - ditto.

Overall they are talking about addressing a culture that places rank and the maintenance of hierarchy above rational concerns. (As an outsider looking in, I personally find this hits me right between the eyes in the education sector.) I have no doubt that the Tory government will fail miserably in addressing the issues they have complete control over - housing and education. As for encouraging better business management, flexible work for women, childcare availability, access to adult education - more dead ducks, I fear. Political short termism is too ingrained and Victorian attitudes (deserving vs undeserving sections of the population) have proven far too durable.

Typically, it seems that certain phrases have been lifted from the report and used to suggest that the grass will automatically be greener on the other side, while the need for heavy lifting is completely ignored.

Basically, their point is that all the major problems exist because of systemic UK failings and are not due to the EU, and they ask whether the political will exists to demolish the class system and produce an egalitarian society where everyone feels invested in success and where rational plans are laid based on factual evidence (the antithesis of Brexit in other words...)

mathanxiety · 19/10/2017 03:20

Thank you for the Twitter fun-poking at Theresa May, UsuallyDormant. Who says Germans have no sense of humour?

Love the final images of TM sitting in the steam train ploughing through the station and off the rails into the street.

mathanxiety · 19/10/2017 03:25

@Telegraph
Army could be deployed to protect the border if Britain leaves the EU without a Brexit deal
"Would that be our border with the Irish Republic?"

I want to know that too. Otherwise we are talking about 'the coast'. As if the Armada was on its way...

BigChocFrenzy · 19/10/2017 05:23

Flights

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/airlines-may-not-guarantee-flights-after-exit-from-eu-x2s57r7c0

British airlines are preparing to warn their customers that flights booked after March 2019 may not take off
and they will not pay compensation if planes are grounded.

In a stark response to the uncertainties of Brexit,
airlines are drawing up contingency plans to update websites with notices alerting passengers purchasing advance tickets that their bookings cannot be guaranteed.

< for those who were asking what events might turn public opinion ? >

The move, which has been discussed with the government, would be introduced in spring next year if Brexit talks are still deadlocked.

^It would apply to all tickets sold to EU destinations and up to 17 other countries,
including the United States, where British airlines’ legal flight rights are overseen by Europe-wide agreements.^

BigChocFrenzy · 19/10/2017 05:34

The govt strategy all along has been all along to try to negotiate with individual E27 leaders, not the EU
and betting that Germany will ride to the rescue, because of cars .....

in the real world .... May will end up with 5 minute am speaking slot after dinner again, with no discussion afterwards
and it is Germany who is strongest about holding fast to the the EU position, clear joint EU statements backing this and with Merkel being polite but steadfast when May phones her.
< well, at least she still takes calls, even if she says she only has 5 minutes before her Lederhosen need polishing >

Will this Brexit shambles be the deathknell of the Tory party, or will they rise like cockroaches after nuclear catastrophe ? Hmm

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-18/what-happened-to-the-conservative-party

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