Westminstenders: Sucking up to the 'enemy'

[RedToothBrush]

Phil Hammond called the EU the enemy. Then retracted it. A classic political move, to pitch to one group and then say you didn't mean it after all.

This is the UK's negotiation strategy. Because the negotiation isn't really with the EU. Its the ongoing debate over the what leaving the EU actually means since it wasn't officially defined prior to the referendum and has been left to politicians to say its one thing to persuade people to support them and then decided no that's not really what they meant after all.

The whole thing makes it impossible for the EU to respond to us, because we don't appear to know what we want.

The EU have been explicit in their position. So things they can not do because of the limitations of trade rules and EU law. Its possible work arounds could be possible for some things - but certainly not all which too many Brexiteers fail to acknowledge.

And then there is the a50 deadline which is like a snake coiled around May's neck slowly strangling her. A self imposed screwing of our negotiating position. One that kills off our Brexit options and ups the stakes into a brinkmanship battle - not with the EU but between the hardlines and the sane. Its not even about remaining, though that option might well end up being the only option left on the table through our own folly, rather than out of EU malice.

The longer we take to work out what we want the higher the stake become and the more we destroy the foundations of our economy in the meantime, even if we do stay in.

We have only just noticed that we've lost money worth 25% of our GDP and we have no net assets anymore, when in early 2016 we had significant assets. Project Fear they said was wrong. Well was it?

We are flat broke as a nation.

Then there is the Great Repel Bill. The Bill was supposed to be in the Commons this week. It was delayed a week due to the sheer number of amendments. There are nearly a dozen with enough Tory rebels to make them stick. Including one for parliament to have a meaningful vote on what option we take - including no deal. If parliament rejected this, we would be left in a situation where we sure as hell better hope a50 is reversible or we could end up unlawfully leave the EU by accident!

And the Lords could be fun for the Repel Bill. The Labour whip has vowed to examine every amendment properly even if the commons don't. And they are free and within their rights to do so.

Still May could exit stage left. Or left with egg all over her face as she has to suck up to the 'enemy' for being such a tool for the last 18months, because she hasn't made progress on the negotiations that really matter. The Tory party ones.

Whichever way you cut it, you can be sure on only one thing: it will go to the wire for both. And possibly beyond with an eleventh hour extension to prevent chaos.

There are hints that the public mood might be changing. Not fast enough. Yet. Interest rates? A break in the triple lock? Phil's budget sure will be interesting. Especially as Brexiteers want money to prepare and protect us from a no deal scenario which they also tell us will be just fine and won't be a problem. Bye Bye NHS, don't get flu this winter. As a note once infamously said: 'There's no many left'.

We are Greece. Only worse. And out of pressure and deadlines we alone created. We just haven't realised it. Yet.

And if this doesn't make you cringe and brace yourself in horror:

Danny Kemp‏ @dannyctkemp
May wants to take the floor at EU summit dinner on Thursday to explain Brexit policy to fellow leaders, senior official says

Just remember her party speech and think: What could possibly go wrong...

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3071443-To-think-the-break-up-of-Europe-has-begun?trending=1
Good night for overtime for our wee friends ^

The prosecutor's office is closed for the weekend in Catalonia so they can't be quite as independent as they wanted yet.

Like brexiteers, they are not very good at coups, this lot.

This is very good on how Russian bots (via Julian Assange) have been promoting Calaluyan independence: www.byline.com/column/67/article/1903

Basically, anything that destabilises the EU benefits Russia.

Sorry, that should have said catalan independence...

mother here are a couple of articles on it.
Some similarities with brexit: dodgy 'leaders' in political and corruption charge trouble, use 'independence' for short term gain.
Like us remainers, there are a lot of Catalonians who don't want 'independence'.
Destabilised EU suits Russia, as missmoon said.
www.politico.eu/article/russia-catalonia-referendum-fake-news-misinformation/
www.newsweek.com/catalan-referendum-russia-media-kremlin-674911
If you are on twitter, I've been following this, quite useful and in English.
twitter.com/thespainreport

Delicious irony in May's condemnation of unconstitutional coup, while forcing through repel bill.

More Brexit Bias emails

@NedHartley
I couldn't help myself

@J_amesp
Just FYI Scotland, targeted disinformation campaigns are live, are being aimed at you, and so far are having the desired effect

And in our manor. There are a lot of pro Catalonia visitors, with the usual scripts. Again.

I'll have to respectfully disagree with your dislike of independence movements and your confidence that they are the work of Russian bots Woman

I am not a bot and nor are any of my Indy supporting friends and family (ie all of them bar 2 of my close circle - and even the wider circle is pretty unanimously Indy supporting) .....and we are perfectly capable of doing our own analysis and making up our own minds.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/electricity/news/eu-funds-france-ireland-energy-project-that-bypasses-uk/

The European Commission has allocated €4 million to a project that will link the French and Irish electricity grids via an undersea cable.
Irish lawmakers have now touted the plan as an “obvious solution” to Ireland’s energy reliance on a post-Brexit

So, following my earlier link about the world's largest ro-ro ferry plying between Dublin and the EU mainland, with more to follow ....
this shows clear expansion of both sea & air routes for the RoI post-Brexit

The EU has already started on its contingency plans so - especially after a transition period – the RoI will be a lot less dependent on the UK

.....did have an argument with one lady at my local SNP branch though as she was going to vote Leave "because of TTIP"

I think I convinced her about the error of her analysis that she was wrong and that if she didn't want a trade deal like TTIP then she needed to vote Remain.

Laying a subsea energy cable would also allow Ireland to strengthen its telecoms links with continental Europe. At the moment most of them go through the UK.

Cable laying shops are very expensive so if you can lay the telecoms cable at the same time it becomes more cost effective.

I don't mean to mix up the way Scottish independence has been handled and what's happened today, in Spain, prettybird Some of our oldest friends are SNP.

Sturgeon's response, tonight, was particularly measured and politic. And Scottish independents did not attend a meeting organised by the Russians in 2014.

I think the SNP has taken a much more nuanced approach, to Catalonia, not least as Puidgment is slightly damaged goods. Nuance is what one would expect from the birthplace of the Englightenment. And I'm not even sure Salmond meant to have that referendum in the first place?

Sadly, in such a febrile atmosphere, Brexiteers and alt righters are right now going bananas for Catalonian independence. I can understand the desire for Catalonian independence, , like I can understand independence for all oppressed peoples, but context is all.

I do wonder why Brexiteers and the British press are so enthusiastic about Catalonian independence this evening.

Again, I think some commentators are looking in the wrong direction for a beneficiary if Spain ends up fractured.

Ireland voted no in its first Lisbon referendum thanks to a campaign eerily similar to Brexit which was run by Declan Ganley, a millionaire whose telecom firm is now a big defence contractor in the US, with former directors of the CIA and former top brass on the board.

I think it behoves us to ask how a splintered EU might benefit US business. It's hard to know where to start on that one. Maybe the fate of the NHS will serve as an example of US plans for a huge expansion of the health industry. Ditto chlorinated chicken, an example of the ambition of American food processors.

Talk of ever closer EU integration has the US spooked. In particular, the US is concerned that a EU army might edge NATO aside. With NATO of course goes American power in Europe.

Sorry to hark back , this thread moves so fast , but the twitter thread thingy about Chris Heaton-Harris , the comments from the brexiteer's were shocking , did anyone notice the one where they suggested children had been told to tell parents which way to vote in the Ref. , then insinuated that there was a investigation underway ? Or the one where they were bemoaning the fact that left wing leaning teaching staff had been indoctrinating children for years ? If that is the case , how come leave won the vote ?

It is odd isn't it, there being a bunch of right-wingers who won a referendum and behaving like they lost it, and a bunch of left-wingers who lost an election and behaving like they won it...

I agree with Prettybird on the topic of how independence movements develop. It's worth noting that the Basques waged a long and bitter campaign for independence before the Catalonians jumped on the bus. I do not think there is any suggestion of bots interfering in that.

Is it possible that Spain was held together by brutal means under Franco and that simmering under the surface was a great deal of resentment?

Likewise, the Provisional IRA in NI waged a guerilla war. While the Provisional called themselves Marxists and were able to source Semtex in what was then Czechoslovakia, any Soviet support for them came well after the campaign began. It can be argued that their campaign was the tail end of hundreds of years of campaigning. Far more meaningful support came from the US in terms of both money and political pressure in Washington.

That being said, I believe American vulture capitalists would like to get a foot in the Spanish door and would like to see Europe under pressure. Catalonia as a separate state has a decent GDP. Spain without Catalonia will cost the Bundesbank a pretty penny to prop up.

I actually agree with you Woman re Salmond not actually wanting the referendum at that point.

However, no one (including the SNP ) expected them to break the d'Hondt system in 2011 and win an outright majority in a parliament designed not to have a single party with an overall majority And as it was a manifesto commitment, he had to follow through strange concept that with certain UK parties

I know Cameron and the MSM tried to pressurise Salmond to have the Referendum sooner rather than later but iirc, either in the manifesto or in pre-HR elections, he had said in the latter half of the parliament.

I also recall Wendy Alexander in the previous parliament (SNP minority government) at one point trying to dare him to "bring it on" before she was slapped down by Labour Head Office. (I think that was one of the contributing reasons for her subsequent resignation).

Interesting contrast with Cameron who was also wrong-footed in "having" to call the EU Referendum, after he unexpectedly won an outright majority. I think he'd expected the LibDems to "save" him from having to hold it.

Difference was that Cameron had "committed" to the EU Referendum to try to stop internecine Conservative Party politics and not because he thought it was the best thing for the country whereas Salmond, even if the timing wasn't quite when he would have planned it, did (and does) it for the sake of the independent country he believes in.

Ireland has to do this. Deep water ports extended etc. It has will have an unfriendly, if not downright hostile route to avoid. The one thing the Cons and DUP (and many more) will be happy about is the huge damage they will inflict on Ireland. If not intended, it will be a happy coincidence.

Holyhead, Pembroke and Fishguard won't have the amount of roro going through.

It's worth noting that the Basques waged a long and bitter campaign for independence before the Catalonians jumped on the bus

Actually Catalonian independence has been a thing for much longer than many realise - there was an active, and armed, independence movement around the same time as Irish and Basque terrorism was at its peak. Catalan separatists perpetrated dozens of bombing attacks in the 1980 but overall the movement was smaller, and less deadly, than its peers.

I don't think there is any question that the Catalan independence movement is real, and that a substantial number (though probably not a majority, unless minds have changed in recent days) of Catalans do want their own state. But equally there is little doubt in my mind that the same forces that lined up behind Brexit and Trump are also enjoying a bit of mischief making in Spain. You even see it on Mumsnet - there is a group of posters which will get behind literally any disruptive political movement in the EU, whether brexit, neofascists, or the separatist movements.

I'd add that is worth glancing through the catalexit thread on the politics forum, where the usual suspects are spouting the approved lines (isn't it funny how the most ardent brexiters agree about everything). However one Mnetter who appears to know a bit about Spanish politics has contributed some useful context which is worth a read.

there is a group of posters which will get behind literally any disruptive political movement in the EU, whether brexit, neofascists, or the separatist movements.

Yes, they have been predicting the demise of the EU and jump up and down in excitement about anything which might bring it about. They loved the advance of Geert Wilders and Marine Le Pen and were bitterly disappointed when they didn't win. They don't want Scottish Independence or a United Ireland because neither of those would smash the EU.

Interesting different perspective from Craig Murray, former Ambassador to Uzbekistan (and in the interests if full disclosure strong Indy supporter).

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2017/10/misdirection-and-catalonia/

It reminded me that while people claim that only a minority of people support Catalan independence, the vote in the Catalan Parliament was 70 for declaring UDI, 10 against and 2 formal abstentions. There must have been more de facto abstentions, in that parliamentarians just didn't turn up to vote, but even so, given that the chamber has 135 seats, the motion would still have carried if they'd all turned up.