Westminstenders: Sucking up to the 'enemy'

[RedToothBrush]

Phil Hammond called the EU the enemy. Then retracted it. A classic political move, to pitch to one group and then say you didn't mean it after all.

This is the UK's negotiation strategy. Because the negotiation isn't really with the EU. Its the ongoing debate over the what leaving the EU actually means since it wasn't officially defined prior to the referendum and has been left to politicians to say its one thing to persuade people to support them and then decided no that's not really what they meant after all.

The whole thing makes it impossible for the EU to respond to us, because we don't appear to know what we want.

The EU have been explicit in their position. So things they can not do because of the limitations of trade rules and EU law. Its possible work arounds could be possible for some things - but certainly not all which too many Brexiteers fail to acknowledge.

And then there is the a50 deadline which is like a snake coiled around May's neck slowly strangling her. A self imposed screwing of our negotiating position. One that kills off our Brexit options and ups the stakes into a brinkmanship battle - not with the EU but between the hardlines and the sane. Its not even about remaining, though that option might well end up being the only option left on the table through our own folly, rather than out of EU malice.

The longer we take to work out what we want the higher the stake become and the more we destroy the foundations of our economy in the meantime, even if we do stay in.

We have only just noticed that we've lost money worth 25% of our GDP and we have no net assets anymore, when in early 2016 we had significant assets. Project Fear they said was wrong. Well was it?

We are flat broke as a nation.

Then there is the Great Repel Bill. The Bill was supposed to be in the Commons this week. It was delayed a week due to the sheer number of amendments. There are nearly a dozen with enough Tory rebels to make them stick. Including one for parliament to have a meaningful vote on what option we take - including no deal. If parliament rejected this, we would be left in a situation where we sure as hell better hope a50 is reversible or we could end up unlawfully leave the EU by accident!

And the Lords could be fun for the Repel Bill. The Labour whip has vowed to examine every amendment properly even if the commons don't. And they are free and within their rights to do so.

Still May could exit stage left. Or left with egg all over her face as she has to suck up to the 'enemy' for being such a tool for the last 18months, because she hasn't made progress on the negotiations that really matter. The Tory party ones.

Whichever way you cut it, you can be sure on only one thing: it will go to the wire for both. And possibly beyond with an eleventh hour extension to prevent chaos.

There are hints that the public mood might be changing. Not fast enough. Yet. Interest rates? A break in the triple lock? Phil's budget sure will be interesting. Especially as Brexiteers want money to prepare and protect us from a no deal scenario which they also tell us will be just fine and won't be a problem. Bye Bye NHS, don't get flu this winter. As a note once infamously said: 'There's no many left'.

We are Greece. Only worse. And out of pressure and deadlines we alone created. We just haven't realised it. Yet.

And if this doesn't make you cringe and brace yourself in horror:

Danny Kemp‏ @dannyctkemp
May wants to take the floor at EU summit dinner on Thursday to explain Brexit policy to fellow leaders, senior official says

Just remember her party speech and think: What could possibly go wrong...

Everyone watching Newsnight now?

BigChoc - paving the path for TM to resign on health grounds...?

I'm suspicious of JDD on the eureferendum site. He's made one claim (about ration books a couple of weeks ago) which I absolutely do not believe, and no genuine senior civil servant would ever say what his job was on a website to which he has contributed multiple indiscreet comments. It would be career suicide. Also, he posts too much during the working day.

But - he is clearly well informed.

Dont get excited about the prospect of May resigning. The EU don't want her to. There's a reason for that.

Newsnight: Arron Banks = 'may be' dodgy as fuck' ... and then closes with a pitch from Legatum Institute.

FFS.

At least have some context for who they, why they say the things they say, and who thinks differently!!!

Look at the state of the telegraph headline here:

www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2017/10/24/cambridge-university-caves-student-demands-decolonise-english/amp/
Cambridge University caves to student demands to 'decolonise' English curriculum

Cambridge University’s English Literature professors will be forced to replace white authors with black writers, under new proposals put forward by academic staff following student demands to “decolonise” the curriculum.

Given the other stories on universities today, don't you think its good that students spending 9k on fees are demanding that their lecturers give them a more left wing course than the one the lecturers would otherwise produce. Those colonial lecturers trying to extol the virtues of empire and British supremacy being told by the students to give a less right wing syllabus...

Consumers and market forces, huh.

www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-41740237
Ex-UKIP donor Arron Banks in Rochester by-election expenses row

Ex-UKIP donor Arron Banks paid for 20 of his employees to ferry party voters to the polls at the Rochester 2014 by-election, BBC Newsnight understands.

The expenditure was not registered by UKIP, which could breach electoral law.

UKIP's victory in Rochester ensured the party received more coverage by the BBC and other broadcasters the following year, at the 2015 general election.

Mr Banks denies any wrongdoing and said all expenditure at the by-election was expensed in full and notified to UKIP.

No wonder Banks does not give a fuck about the electoral commission. And the media which normally would be the force to pick up on stuff like this, just chased the story of the amazing ukip surge.

It is very unlikely that any action will be taken against UKIP, Mr Reckless, his agent or Mr Banks because a criminal investigation must start within a year of any possible offence.

Ridiculous law is limited in this way.

Irene Ration books were printed, for petrol at least, during the 3-day week
Ration books for food seems a necessary precaution, unless the govt has totally given up any responsibility for the welfare of the people ... and doesn't mind facing hungry mobs

I can believe that if a dedicated civil servant sees the country heading for disaster, he might take some risks to stop this
The surprise is that so far our elected MPs haven't

JDD says he was questioned by police, but released without charge
North knows JDD well, so if JDD is lying, then they both are

L'Echo (France) is far more knowledgeable than the Uk press:

"Do the British have the administrative capacity to prepare for a "no deal"?

They will have to come out of around a thousand international trade agreements in Europe
and 750 bilateral agreements with third countries.

Will they be able to negotiate them individually?

They will come out one day to another air agreements:
their pilots will not be recognized any more,
and planes will not be able to take off.

The British will have no choice but to leave Euratom.
They could have an immediate problem in managing and importing nuclear material,
both for their nuclear power plants and for their hospitals.

Even the supply of food could be threatened in case of "no deal".
There will be immediate controls, and probably also taxes.

The transition period is somehow an extended stay of the British within Europe until the end of 2020?

In fact, this transition period is the maintenance of the economic status quo. It is logical that this transition should take place in the current financial framework, until the end of 2020."
In this transitional period, the European regulations, the supervision and the control of the European Court of Justice, all the European architecture must therefore stay the same.

The only difference is that the British will no longer participate in decisions on European legislation.

But I see now that the FT has also ramped up:

(paywall) Zombie ideas about Brexit that refuse to die

The FT demolishes seven "Zombie ideas:'

• the EU is being unreasonable;
• the UK is in a stronger position than the EU;
• the EU’s priorities are wrong;
• the UK is an economic powerhouse;
• the UK can survive well without a favourable deal;
• a shift to WTO terms for trade with the EU would be smooth
• those who deny Brexiters’ claims are traitors or saboteurs:

https://www.ft.com/content/2b7c858a-b400-11e7-a398-73d59db9e399

This is despotism

In a liberal democracy, we are all entitled to our opinions and to seek to overturn what we consider grossly mistaken decisions.

The saboteurs are those whose zombie ideas have brought the UK to a ruinous break with its neighbours and natural partners.
It is our right to argue this."
< right on . Cheers >

Way to go FT.

RTB Thanks for posting the BBC mini-article. That was one part of the Newsnight section on AB. The other angle was looking at the strangely nebulous source of financing of his companies.

I'm not quite sure what I can write at this point, without venturing into libellous waters - which was, of course, the problem the BBC had ...

And of course, you are absolutely right. AB really does not seem to care because it seems that all of this has been done with complete impunity. It's grim. And it all worked. It bought a platform for UKIP - who, it seems, were then handed a permanent place in mainstream media from thence onwards.

Matthew Holehouse @ mattholehouse
Brexit will cut queues at Dover because ... wait for it... trade volumes with Europe will fall

brexitcentral.com/brexit-cut-queues-dover-not-create/
Brexit should cut queues at Dover, not create them

From a brexit source. Its genuis.

Cat re: Banks and libel.

Banks has a big mouth. Banks gloats and admits stuff because he's arrogant. Half the time I wonder if people are not looking closer at him precisely because he seems to potentially implicates himself and they think that it must be a joke.

He only seens to get libellous when a real nerve is hit or he's after the publicity. But to date despite a few threats, I don't think he has. In part because in order to prove he's been libelled, he also has to answer questions about those times he has opened his big mouth and has potentially implicated himself.

He does have lots of legitimate questions that can be asked about him. Questions that he's not forthcoming about really answering to a level that satisfies public need for transparency.

Best to ask questions...

www.thesun.co.uk/news/4758462/shamed-labour-mp-jared-omara-complained-to-colleagues-about-working-on-fridays-because-thursday-is-my-usual-going-out-night/amp/
Shamed Labour MP Jared O’Mara complained to colleagues about working on Fridays because ‘Thursday is my usual going-out night’
He admitted struggling with his duty to hold drop-in sessions with his constituents on Fridays because he’s always hungover

Well someone really has it in for him...

Jake Wilde @ jack_wilde
A thread about Jared O'Mara, based upon information supplied to me

He joined Labour aged 17 & has never been particularly left wing, but Momentum targeted the seat simply because of Clegg

Some Momentum activists worried about supporting him as they knew his history.

He has been active in his local community (which isn't Hallam) and is a governor & trustee of a school and resource centre for disabled people.

Described as "charming company until he has had a drink or is rejected"; evidence of both was in the public domain before this week.

He tried to become a local councillor in 2004, right at the time when he was writing the reported comments online.

For years he's told people he wanted to be an MP, apparently unable to see any conflict between his views, his language and his suitability.

There's more to come, not least concerning his business interests.

There exists a view that he believed that he could say and do as he pleased.

Questioning his judgement and complaining has always resulted in "robust" responses.

End

So that Labour members with some pretty big worries about him, spilling the beans because someone didn't vet properly. And this will now be a gift for Tories. Especially if he does not resign even if he does have the whip removed. He strikes me as the type to arrogantly ride it out too. After all the wages are good.

On that Legatum Institute Brexit marketing piece on Newsnight. Did anyone notice that the UK was taking Ireland hostage? When the video physically moved both Britain and the entire island of Ireland into the Pacific Ocean.

No context whatsoever for their propaganda. Usual rubbish. When the UK is an independent and sovereign country. The analysis was not just dumb. It was absent.

amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/24/jobless-poleaxed-universal-credit-workers-low-income-financial-penalties
Universal credit has poleaxed the jobless. Now for low-income workers

By May 2016, 15,000 working people had been moved on to universal credit. The Resolution Foundation estimates that by the time it is fully rolled out it will affect 1.2 million workers. Many of these will be families, and about 200,000 will be lone parents. Most are unaware that once they are moved on to universal credit their claims will entail the same degrading treatment currently reserved only for the unemployed.

Under universal credit, workers on low incomes will be made to look for extra hours as a condition for receiving the benefit. If they are earning less than the equivalent of the minimum wage at 35 hours a week, they will be placed in one of two “labour market regimes” (otherwise termed a “work-related activity group” or “conditionality group”) with conditions attached to their benefit claims to “incentivise” them to increase their hours – or find higher paying or full-time work.

Those placed in the “intensive work search regime” will be obliged to “take intensive action to secure … more work, attending regular work-focused interviews, attending work search reviews (at least fortnightly) and undertaking work preparation, work search and other work-related activities”.

If they are judged to not be complying with these conditions they will be sanctioned, just as jobseekers are now.

Tories wondering why the young and the low income won't vote for them attack lecturers for being too left wing.

Nick Gutteridge‏**@nick**_gutteridge
Manfred Weber says MEPs will veto two-year transition on membership terms. Would be big spanner in works as EU leaders have essentially accepted May's proposal.
(Originally posted by RTB)

The EPP (Weber's EU Parliament group) includes MEPs from Fine Gael, currently a minority government in Ireland, with Republican parties Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein hot on its heels, and Angela Merkel's CDU MEPs.

Develops in the US have alarmed me. I am concerned. America's fate will be our own if we are not careful. And what I see there is frightening. Ireland's fate will follow due to its own relationship with both.

The EU should be concerned. It is a political threat to them via another route.

Develops in the US have alarmed me which in particular, red?

Ration books were printed, for petrol at least, during the 3-day week

Ration books for petrol, clearly printed during the Suez crisis judging by the typeface on them, were issued during the crisis of the early seventies - I think it was late 1973, from memory. During the time of Ted Heath's Tory government, for those who are inclined to think that strikes only happen under Labour.

Under universal credit, workers on low incomes will be made to look for extra hours as a condition for receiving the benefit. If they are earning less than the equivalent of the minimum wage at 35 hours a week, they will be placed in one of two “labour market regimes” (otherwise termed a “work-related activity group” or “conditionality group”) with conditions attached to their benefit claims to “incentivise” them to increase their hours – or find higher paying or full-time work.

There are so many things wrong with this I have lost the will to write them all out half way through and am instead just sitting in depressed gloom at the horror of our government.

Have you guys seen Flake's resignation speech? It is one hell of a thing. We need a Tory with some principles to make one as good over brexit.

edition.cnn.com/2017/10/24/politics/jeff-flake-retirement-speech-full-text/index.html

Government ‘shamelessly attempting’ to give itself power to spy on people’s details for ‘immigration control’

Outrage over 'two-tier, racially discriminatory' clause which would strike out data privacy rights in immigration investigations

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/personal-information-new-laws-uk-home-office-power-migrants-immigration-control-brexit-government-a8017326.html