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Brexit

Westminstenders: Sucking up to the 'enemy'

979 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/10/2017 18:09

Phil Hammond called the EU the enemy. Then retracted it. A classic political move, to pitch to one group and then say you didn't mean it after all.

This is the UK's negotiation strategy. Because the negotiation isn't really with the EU. Its the ongoing debate over the what leaving the EU actually means since it wasn't officially defined prior to the referendum and has been left to politicians to say its one thing to persuade people to support them and then decided no that's not really what they meant after all.

The whole thing makes it impossible for the EU to respond to us, because we don't appear to know what we want.

The EU have been explicit in their position. So things they can not do because of the limitations of trade rules and EU law. Its possible work arounds could be possible for some things - but certainly not all which too many Brexiteers fail to acknowledge.

And then there is the a50 deadline which is like a snake coiled around May's neck slowly strangling her. A self imposed screwing of our negotiating position. One that kills off our Brexit options and ups the stakes into a brinkmanship battle - not with the EU but between the hardlines and the sane. Its not even about remaining, though that option might well end up being the only option left on the table through our own folly, rather than out of EU malice.

The longer we take to work out what we want the higher the stake become and the more we destroy the foundations of our economy in the meantime, even if we do stay in.

We have only just noticed that we've lost money worth 25% of our GDP and we have no net assets anymore, when in early 2016 we had significant assets. Project Fear they said was wrong. Well was it?

We are flat broke as a nation.

Then there is the Great Repel Bill. The Bill was supposed to be in the Commons this week. It was delayed a week due to the sheer number of amendments. There are nearly a dozen with enough Tory rebels to make them stick. Including one for parliament to have a meaningful vote on what option we take - including no deal. If parliament rejected this, we would be left in a situation where we sure as hell better hope a50 is reversible or we could end up unlawfully leave the EU by accident!

And the Lords could be fun for the Repel Bill. The Labour whip has vowed to examine every amendment properly even if the commons don't. And they are free and within their rights to do so.

Still May could exit stage left. Or left with egg all over her face as she has to suck up to the 'enemy' for being such a tool for the last 18months, because she hasn't made progress on the negotiations that really matter. The Tory party ones.

Whichever way you cut it, you can be sure on only one thing: it will go to the wire for both. And possibly beyond with an eleventh hour extension to prevent chaos.

There are hints that the public mood might be changing. Not fast enough. Yet. Interest rates? A break in the triple lock? Phil's budget sure will be interesting. Especially as Brexiteers want money to prepare and protect us from a no deal scenario which they also tell us will be just fine and won't be a problem. Bye Bye NHS, don't get flu this winter. As a note once infamously said: 'There's no many left'.

We are Greece. Only worse. And out of pressure and deadlines we alone created. We just haven't realised it. Yet.

And if this doesn't make you cringe and brace yourself in horror:

Danny Kemp‏ @dannyctkemp
May wants to take the floor at EU summit dinner on Thursday to explain Brexit policy to fellow leaders, senior official says

Just remember her party speech and think: What could possibly go wrong...

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RedToothBrush · 24/10/2017 17:44

Anna Soubry @ annasoubry
Horrible, misogynist, homophobic, racist comments from #JaredOmara must be investigated by #Labour & whip withdrawn

Guess what the replies fairly say. Something about Philip Davis, Boris Johnson and Michael Fallon. Though you could throw a few more names in there with ease.

Personally I'd love revenge of the Clegg on this one. I think the Brexit debate and the HoC would do well to have him back.

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RedToothBrush · 24/10/2017 17:47

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/wheres-david-gauke-tory-charge-11400282.amp
Where's David Gauke? Tory in charge of Universal Credit fails to turn up to emergency debate on bungled rollout

If he were a benefit claimant, he'd face sanctions...

Noting here that other Tory MPs did turn up. And not to defend the government.

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RedToothBrush · 24/10/2017 18:19

www.buzzfeed.com/jamesball/the-farage-backed-brexit-campaign-has-denied-using-twitter?utm_term=.jwXgD8lzw1#.ntJeD7KnZ0
Here's Leave.EU's Foul-Mouthed Denial Of Using Twitter Bots To Influence The Brexit Vote
Leave.EU's expletive-filled response to BuzzFeed News comes as MPs ask social networks for information on bot activity during the referendum campaign.

Carole Cadwalladr‏*@carolecadwalla*

Great @Buzzfeed have followed up..but needs response from @ElectoralCommUK & @iconews. Bots are election comms & must be labelled such.
1/3
But there's a massive problem for the regulators here. Because either @LeaveEUOfficial is lying then. Or it's lying now...
2/3
Which is it?
And how will @electoralCommUK & @Iconews possibly find out?
This is @Arron_banks talking to me about @ElectoralCommUK in April

Westminstenders: Sucking up to the 'enemy'
Westminstenders: Sucking up to the 'enemy'
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RedToothBrush · 24/10/2017 18:20

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tories-dealt-embarrassing-defeat-house-11402369
Tories dealt embarrassing defeat as House of Lords backs ban on nuisance calls
Peers voted for plans to let unsolicited 'cold calling' be outlawed if it could harm vulnerable customers

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BigChocFrenzy · 24/10/2017 19:47

I enjoyed LH's link about no deal, no Brexit:

A leading Corbynista put it more bluntly:
“[Brexit] won’t happen because the government are a useless bunch of spivs and they’re f@@king it up.”

woman11017 · 24/10/2017 20:44

Smile Great day, excellent speeches but some great campaigning advice too. Word is, the small local remain groups are worrying the brexiteers. Oxford west had interesting speaker on how you managed to get a Remain Lib Dem in Peregrina. North East Remain also interesting on running small events shining a light on the good the EU brings to an area. A southern Remain campaigner uses campaign posters with no EU flags on them, just good messages. EU flags can be a turn off for many wavering leavers, apparently. Lucas was very good, and Tim Skeet, the young organiser for Britain in Europe made the point that arguing to Remain at this point, is too confrontational, at this stage still, for many leavers.

However pointing out that 'no deal' is untenable, and that a vote on the final deal is essential are stronger arguments at this stage.

It's an interesting mix of grassroots action and political observers.
The (self imposed?) impotence of the MPs who spoke was palpable, although Lammy was great.

Westminstenders: Sucking up to the 'enemy'
woman11017 · 24/10/2017 20:45

^A leading Corbynista put it more bluntly:
“[Brexit] won’t happen because the government are a useless bunch of spivs and they’re f@@king it up^.”

'Bungling brexit' has sticking power.

RedToothBrush · 24/10/2017 20:47

Alex Wickham‏*@WikiGuido*

So Jared O'Mara still has the Labour whip tonight. Wonder if he will after tomorrow's developments.

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BigChocFrenzy · 24/10/2017 21:29

Comments below that article were overwhelmingly the Ultras, not just ordinary Leavers.

They are certainly v active online, even on the "serious" media where one wouldn't expect to find such ignorant and angry commentators
They kept quoting the WTO lie from Fox, Redwood & Ultra Central
Also that the "elite" wanted to foil Brexit and Remain

Always large numbers of commentators, always parroting the same lines
This looks organised.

woman11017 · 24/10/2017 21:37

This looks organised. Yep.

RedToothBrush · 24/10/2017 21:38

order-order.com/2017/10/24/sandbach-quits-whatsapp-group-complaining-about-hard-brexiteers/
Sandbach Quits WhatsApp group complaining about Hard Brexiteers

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BigChocFrenzy · 24/10/2017 21:38

Senior civil servant JDD stating that Fox & all ministers have been repeatedly given
the facts about WTO Brexit

http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86644

Q: is it true that before applying the WTO quotes to the EU/UK trade there should be an customs agreement
(and it will take 3-5 years to reach one in the worst case scenario)?

JDD: Both need to be done
The WCO not the WTO look after Customs agreements and we will have zero and yes the timeframe is about 3- 5 years
And they have to be in place before we can move on to trade treaties and agreements
....
Q: I am asking because it is hard to believe that the complete blockage of trade caused by a "no - deal" scenario would last 3 to 5 years.

JDD: I write about this daily within the Department
and I make sure that I get read receipts
so I can state that ALL ministers and shadow ministers and Privy Council are aware of this
< JDD covering his back against Chilcott-type inquiry into Brexit >

Q: For clarity:
i) No trade agreements possible without a customs agreement first.
ii) A customs agreement takes 3-5 years.
iii) Every minister, shadow minister and privy council member has been informed of this and signed a piece of paper to confirm that they have been informed?
Is this all ministers, sm's, pcm's in general, or just those responsible for trade?

JDD: All including the Sovereign
......
Q: What Redwood actually says is that they all transfer to the UK unless the other party objects.
< he seems to be referring to mutual recognition agreements of standars etc to enable trade, to flights ... >

JDD: It's not true at all and is a complete lie

If the treaties transfered there are 80+ WTO members with papers ready for an emergency WTO Appellate Body panel adjudication,
as this would be blatent preferential treatment of the UK
...
I know this sounds illogical but
the WTO insists on non discrimination ;
if we are offered continuity agreements and treaties then all WTO members must be offered the same
...
It does mean no deals whatsoever
I should know, I am responsible for the WTO taskforce in government
dear God
....
Q: .... [journalists] suggested 2 year transition staying in SM and CU was most 'flexible' approach.
Suggested WTO type of deal if FTA can't be agreed shortly to allow everyone to prepare

JDD: Illegal under WTO rules as it gives the UK preferential access without a bilateral treaty
It's nonsense

BigChocFrenzy · 24/10/2017 21:44

Now we know what JDD's job is: responsibility for covering the WTO side

JDD We have another more serious problem that has arisen from a WTO meeting

UK Commercial contracts supplying goods and services outside of the UK

Some of these contracts are 30 years, RR jet engines for example < supplies, replacement parts, maintenance work ... >
There is no international protection

If the government changes the engagement process
ie leave with zero treaties or customs agreements
then that materially affects most commercial long term contracts

Force majeure cannot apply - companies have had 2 years to sort this out
If our companies cannot supply so break the contract, conditions in 99% of cases damages can be applied

Who in hell is going to then in the future trade with the UK?

PS I discussed this with Richard last night

thecatfromjapan · 24/10/2017 21:46

Yes @ 'organised' . I think there's been an influx of money again. Hmm

Wrt to Redwood, I do wonder if (hope) there will be some form of legal repercussion in years to come. I find it utterly demoralising that there seems to be no sanction of such behaviour at present.

LurkingHusband · 24/10/2017 21:49

Wrt to Redwood, I do wonder if (hope) there will be some form of legal repercussion in years to come

Nuremburg ?

ElenaGreco123 · 24/10/2017 21:57

I wish. More likely Chilcot.

BigChocFrenzy · 24/10/2017 22:05

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/23/uk-likely-to-end-up-with-canadian-style-deal-warns-michel-barnier

... Barnier, has warned that Britain can expect a trade deal little better than the one the EU struck with Canada
– and even that would take years to negotiate, despite Theresa May’s claims to the contrary over Britain’s future after Brexit.

Barnier said he could envision a short transition period being agreed between the EU and the UK before March 2019 to ease the UK’s exit from the bloc,
but it would require the British government accepting the continuation of EU law and the jurisdiction of the European court of justice.

BigChocFrenzy · 24/10/2017 22:07

So May has warned that she will reject the transition period that her govt keep asking for Confused ?

RedToothBrush · 24/10/2017 22:20

Panama Papers II: The Bermuda Papers?

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/24/super-rich-fear-financial-details-will-exposed-following-bermuda/amp/
Super rich fear their financial details will be exposed following Bermuda cyber hack

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RedToothBrush · 24/10/2017 22:24

Bermuda. Malta.

?

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woman11017 · 24/10/2017 22:24

Full fat conspiracy notes on dirty money in brexit, trump et al.
If you like that kind of thing. Grin

Westminstenders: Sucking up to the 'enemy'
BigChocFrenzy · 24/10/2017 22:26

Blimey, that looks a scary book, woman
Not something to read on All Hallows Eve, with the wind howling ....

BigChocFrenzy · 24/10/2017 22:29

(paywall) https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/westminster-s-hall-of-mirrors-is-about-to-shatter-gxp2qcdt5

< matches up with leaks in the German press after May's dinner speech, that she seemed desperate and also looked unwell >
...
Those who have seen Mrs May privately in recent weeks describe her as stricken and stunned.

On one occasion she sat in silence for almost ten minutes while the visitor she had invited to see her waited for her to lead the conversation Confused < that's our PM ? >

He left the meeting deciding she no longer wanted to be prime minister

BigChocFrenzy · 24/10/2017 22:34

Also from that paywall article:

Across Whitehall, ministers are holding their red boxes with one hand, and their noses with the other, as they see the biggest change of their lifetime unfolding on their watch, even though this is a revolution they do not believe in.

No wonder the government seems so anxious and uncomfortable.

“We are trapped in a box,” admits one minister. “Parliament feels frozen by the referendum but people voted for a fantasy we can’t deliver. They can only have Brexit if they’re prepared to suffer the pain.”

It is an extraordinary situation.
In the past, ministers have resigned from the government in principle over much less.
This is not so much a constitutional mess as an ethical one, with ambiguity on all sides.
....
Anna Soubry, the pro-European MP who resigned from the government last year, admits she is relieved at no longer being a minister.
“I don’t believe the majority of people in the government want the hard Brexit they’re now pursuing,”
< so they are putting party before country >

TheElementsSong · 24/10/2017 22:42

They can only have Brexit if they’re prepared to suffer the pain.

Well, fortunately our Brexiteering friends claim to be united in their eagerness to undergo hardship Hmm