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Brexit

Westminstenders: Sucking up to the 'enemy'

979 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/10/2017 18:09

Phil Hammond called the EU the enemy. Then retracted it. A classic political move, to pitch to one group and then say you didn't mean it after all.

This is the UK's negotiation strategy. Because the negotiation isn't really with the EU. Its the ongoing debate over the what leaving the EU actually means since it wasn't officially defined prior to the referendum and has been left to politicians to say its one thing to persuade people to support them and then decided no that's not really what they meant after all.

The whole thing makes it impossible for the EU to respond to us, because we don't appear to know what we want.

The EU have been explicit in their position. So things they can not do because of the limitations of trade rules and EU law. Its possible work arounds could be possible for some things - but certainly not all which too many Brexiteers fail to acknowledge.

And then there is the a50 deadline which is like a snake coiled around May's neck slowly strangling her. A self imposed screwing of our negotiating position. One that kills off our Brexit options and ups the stakes into a brinkmanship battle - not with the EU but between the hardlines and the sane. Its not even about remaining, though that option might well end up being the only option left on the table through our own folly, rather than out of EU malice.

The longer we take to work out what we want the higher the stake become and the more we destroy the foundations of our economy in the meantime, even if we do stay in.

We have only just noticed that we've lost money worth 25% of our GDP and we have no net assets anymore, when in early 2016 we had significant assets. Project Fear they said was wrong. Well was it?

We are flat broke as a nation.

Then there is the Great Repel Bill. The Bill was supposed to be in the Commons this week. It was delayed a week due to the sheer number of amendments. There are nearly a dozen with enough Tory rebels to make them stick. Including one for parliament to have a meaningful vote on what option we take - including no deal. If parliament rejected this, we would be left in a situation where we sure as hell better hope a50 is reversible or we could end up unlawfully leave the EU by accident!

And the Lords could be fun for the Repel Bill. The Labour whip has vowed to examine every amendment properly even if the commons don't. And they are free and within their rights to do so.

Still May could exit stage left. Or left with egg all over her face as she has to suck up to the 'enemy' for being such a tool for the last 18months, because she hasn't made progress on the negotiations that really matter. The Tory party ones.

Whichever way you cut it, you can be sure on only one thing: it will go to the wire for both. And possibly beyond with an eleventh hour extension to prevent chaos.

There are hints that the public mood might be changing. Not fast enough. Yet. Interest rates? A break in the triple lock? Phil's budget sure will be interesting. Especially as Brexiteers want money to prepare and protect us from a no deal scenario which they also tell us will be just fine and won't be a problem. Bye Bye NHS, don't get flu this winter. As a note once infamously said: 'There's no many left'.

We are Greece. Only worse. And out of pressure and deadlines we alone created. We just haven't realised it. Yet.

And if this doesn't make you cringe and brace yourself in horror:

Danny Kemp‏ @dannyctkemp
May wants to take the floor at EU summit dinner on Thursday to explain Brexit policy to fellow leaders, senior official says

Just remember her party speech and think: What could possibly go wrong...

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LurkingHusband · 24/10/2017 12:31

Has anyone caught "Death of Stalin" by the way ? Only mentioned here because of the Russian bot stories, and the suggestion that Russian might ban the film fearing it's a Western plot to undermine Russian democracy.

(I'll have to wait till it's on next week, near me).

TheElementsSong · 24/10/2017 13:13

“a more ambitious and close partnership with the EU than any yet agreed between the EU and a non-EU country.”

More unicorns, based on God only knows what premise. "Don't They Know Who We Are?" probably Hmm

ElenaGreco123 · 24/10/2017 13:16

LH I thought about watching the Death of Stalin, but I take Russian history far too seriously and the creative licence with who was where and did what would probably annoy me.

RedToothBrush · 24/10/2017 13:20

Carole Cadwalladr‏*@carolecadwalla*

Well, this could get interesting..
Head of fake news inquiry demands Facebook hands over Russian-linked Brexit ads. Well done @damiancollins

This is a select committee calling up Mark Zuckerberg in effect. If he does not offer this, will they call him to appear before him? If he doesn't do that, it could get interesting.

It also gives a good reason to try and stop Facebook in the UK btw. This has implications and could be seen as an attempt censorship by the back door. It won't work for various reasons, but I'd watch this one.

We have parliament on collision course with facebook.

Westminstenders: Sucking up to the 'enemy'
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RedToothBrush · 24/10/2017 13:23

Back to the letter sent to universities. It seems someone might have overstepped their authority in those letters:

Steve Analyst‏*@EmporersNewC*
Thanks to @alastairburt asking the question, I'm not entirely sure Chris was within the rules for the use of the crowned portcullis.

Easily arguable that the MP has tried to overstate the authority of his request...

Westminstenders: Sucking up to the 'enemy'
Westminstenders: Sucking up to the 'enemy'
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RedToothBrush · 24/10/2017 13:27

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/brexit-reversed-uk-donald-tusk-european-council-president-leave-eu-theresa-may-commons-mps-a8016691.html
Brexit can be stopped by UK, European Council president Donald Tusk says
Mr Tusk said it was up to the British government

Nick Gutteridge‏*@nick*_gutteridge

Manfred Weber says MEPs will veto two-year transition on membership terms. Would be big spanner in works as EU leaders have essentially accepted May's proposal.

www.express.co.uk/news/politics/870444/Brexit-news-German-MEP-Manfred-Weber-EU-Parliament-veto-May-transition
'This will not fly' MEPs throw Brussels into chaos by vowing to VETO UK-EU transition plan
THE European Parliament today threw a huge spanner in the Brexit works as the leader of its biggest grouping vowed MEPs will veto Britain and Brussels’ plan for a two-year transition period.

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RedToothBrush · 24/10/2017 13:30

uk.businessinsider.com/andrea-leadsom-wants-to-be-chancellor-say-allies-2017-10
Andrea Leadsom 'wants to be Chancellor,' say allies

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thecatfromjapan · 24/10/2017 13:42

Great. with Andrea Leadsom as Chancellor, we could have a Foreign Secretary and a Chancellor who are known throughout Europe as deluded, promoted-beyond-their-capabilities fantasists. That would really help with our world standing.

And Andrea Leadsom is clearly a puppet.

TheElementsSong · 24/10/2017 13:49

www.theguardian.com/education/2017/oct/24/
no-10-disowns-tory-whip-accused-of-mccarthyite-behaviour-universities-brexit

Here we go again, Brexiteer says or does something outrageous, and our Brave Dear Leader shrinks away like the coward she is. But Andrea Leadsom was apparently all gung-ho for defending his actions, of course.

LurkingHusband · 24/10/2017 14:28

A little Brexit chatter abroad ... I read one article briefly highlighting the latest from Theresa May, which in turn then linked to:

www.politico.eu/article/5-reasons-why-no-deal-could-mean-no-brexit

(Interesting to notice on that site, that only one of the top 5 articles is about Brexit ...)

squishysquirmy · 24/10/2017 15:13

Glad the Heaton Harris story made the papers eventually!

LurkingHusband · 24/10/2017 15:27

I note with interest a top Republican has spoken out against Trump.

This is one US development I could happily import ....

Cailleach1 · 24/10/2017 15:40

BigChoc, that point about Fox lying repeatedly about how the EU trade on WTO only. The big issue for me is how the BBC keep letting a lie be perpetuated. I think it was with Peston on Sunday, too. So ITV as well. The earth is flat. Would that be corrected? Why are they allowed to keep doing this. The only time I ever heard a correction (besides from Marr three/four times catching Mordaunt lying about the veto) when Andrew Neil correcting Farage. Farage was yet again saying the UK could just unilaterally slap high tariffs on EU alone in some sort of trade war. Said they would have to treat all countries with which there was no trade agreement with in the same way. Farage happily bsing away, just plucked out of the air another thing the UK could supposedly do. Strangely, I have heard the assertion loads of times since. Although illegal under WTO.

There doesn't seem to be any effort to correct lies. I'm not talking about subjective opinion or perspective. Simply facts being lied about.

Cailleach1 · 24/10/2017 15:41

AN said they would have to treat all countries with which there was no trade agreement with in the same way.

LurkingHusband · 24/10/2017 15:50

Paywalled, but interesting.

Theresa May’s 9 U-turns

www.ft.com/content/e021c208-3ede-11e7-9d56-25f963e998b2

BigChocFrenzy · 24/10/2017 15:56

Hollie EU Parliament commissioned this

Assessment of economic aspect of Brexit on E27
(issued March 2017)

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2017/595374/IPOLSTU(2017)5953744_EN.pdf

Also, Germany and Sweden have published studies for their individual countries
Probably all our main E27 trading partners have done such studies

The Uk govt are hiding this information only from the UK public - the E27 govts know

LurkingHusband · 24/10/2017 15:56

Where's that Magic Money Tree when you really need it ?

www.heraldscotland.com/news/15614550.New_analysis_suggests_Scotland_would_lose_billions_of_pounds_with_Brexit/

SCOTLAND would suffer a “devastating” Brexit bombshell with its towns and cities losing nearly £30 billion as a result of the UK leaving the EU

without a deal, analysis suggests.

Every part of Scotland and the UK as a whole would be affected by a soft Brexit, which would retain access to the single market during a transition period, according to the London School of Economics (LSE).

However, its experts warned they would suffer a much worse fate under a hard no-deal Brexit.

The LSE calculates that, barring the City of London, Aberdeen would be hit the worst, losing, over five years, 4.5 per cent of the value of its goods and services [GVA] or £2.4bn under a soft Brexit and 7 per cent or £3.8bn under a hard no-deal Brexit.

It would be followed by Edinburgh, which would see a loss of 3.5 per cent or £3.2bn under a soft Brexit. The figure would be six per cent, or £5.5bn, if no deal could be struck between Britain and the EU.

Scotland’s biggest city, Glasgow, would suffer a fall of three per cent or £2.9bn in a soft Brexit, and 5.5 per cent or £5.4bn if UK-EU negotiators were unable to strike an agreement.

Other council areas to lose out badly would be Fife at 3 per cent (£1bn) for a soft Brexit or 5 per cent (£1.7bn) for hard. South Lanarkshire would suffer by 2.5 per cent (£720m) in the former scenario and 4.5 per cent (£1.3bn) in the latter, according to the LSE.

Meanwhile, the mainly rural Argyll and Bute would find itself down by

2 per cent (£170m) in a soft Brexit, and double that percentage (£350m) in a hard Brexit, the study claimed.

The respective five-year totals for Scotland in the event of a soft or hard no-deal Brexit are £17.2bn and £29.4bn. Places south of the Border would suffer just as badly, according to the analysis, with the City of London losing out the most.

Overall by 2024, the UK would lose £235bn with a soft Brexit and £430bn under a hard no-deal Brexit, the figures claim.

The LSE analysis follows just days after a row flared up about whether or not the UK Government had itself carried out such analysis.

(contd)

TheElementsSong · 24/10/2017 16:00

So we're going to be patriotically growing more of our own food, are we?

www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/oct/24/uk-30-40-years-away-eradication-soil-fertility-warns-michael-gove

The UK is 30 to 40 years away from “the fundamental eradication of soil fertility” in parts of the country, the environment secretary Michael Gove has warned.

The UK has a poor record in this area. The government has not been conducting regular soil monitoring since the last Countryside Survey in 2007, and in 2012 UK ministers helped block a critical EU soil health directive.

LurkingHusband · 24/10/2017 16:12

The UK is 30 to 40 years away from “the fundamental eradication of soil fertility” in parts of the country, the environment secretary Michael Gove has warned.

Gove has warned ????

I really don't think there is any use whatsoever. As a species, we will keep on pushing at the boundaries of existence, until we reach them and realise it's a one way journey.

If there would be anyone to payout, I'd have a sweepstakes on what happens first. Food collapse, or pandemic(s). (Either of which could be triggered by any number of natural occurences like volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, earthquakes).

At a rough guess, nature needs to halve the number of humans around. Like it's done before.

LurkingHusband · 24/10/2017 16:48

A tad off topic, but this popped up in my FB, and since we are asking about the effectiveness (or otherwise) of political scrutiny, it's a masterclass:

www.facebook.com/NowThisPolitics/videos/1755887254442757/

I especially like the use of the word "Baliwick" Smile.

Peregrina · 24/10/2017 16:52

Glad the Heaton Harris story made the papers eventually!

But surprise, surprise Downing Street disowns it! (Sorry if that comment has already been made - I have been out and am just catching up.)

missmoon · 24/10/2017 17:01

Yes, I was really glad to see the universities story in the media (finally!). I wrote to the Vice-Chancellor, this was the reply:

Dear Xx,

Thank you for your email to Professor Toope, and for sharing your concerns about the request for Universities to provide specific information about courses, lectures and faculty staff on the topic of Brexit.

Information about our courses and research staff is already available online and we will not be responding to this request. This institution is deeply committed to upholding freedom of speech and academic freedom, and we will continue to ensure that academics are able to carry out their teaching and research activities unhindered.

Kind regards,

Paul Mylrea
Director of Communications

TheElementsSong · 24/10/2017 17:02

we will not be responding to this request

Good for them!

(Incidentally, shall we take bets on the amount of ignoring and minimising of this we shall be seeing from our Brexiteering friends?)

OlennasWimple · 24/10/2017 17:26

Jared O'Mara is a nasty piece of work, isn't he...

RedToothBrush · 24/10/2017 17:34

Tom Newton Dunn @ tnewtondunn
Update: clerks latest list circulated to MPs a few minutes ago reveals amendments to EU Withdrawal Bill now up to 387.

www.thesun.co.uk/news/4750521/tory-rebels-brexit-bill-logjam-amendments-latest/amp/
Tory EU rebels and Labour MPs deepen Brexit bill logjam by hiking number of amendments to 400 by the end of the week
The soft Brexit and pro-EU MPs have already tabled more than 300 changes to the EU Withdrawal Bill – the landmark law that will take Britain out of Europe

400! Remember the Labour Lords have vowed to give every single amendment time to be heard if the Commons does not.

30 of these are backed by Tory Rebels.

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