Meet the Other Phone. Only the apps you allow.

Meet the Other Phone.
Only the apps you allow.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Brexit

Westminstenders: Sucking up to the 'enemy'

979 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/10/2017 18:09

Phil Hammond called the EU the enemy. Then retracted it. A classic political move, to pitch to one group and then say you didn't mean it after all.

This is the UK's negotiation strategy. Because the negotiation isn't really with the EU. Its the ongoing debate over the what leaving the EU actually means since it wasn't officially defined prior to the referendum and has been left to politicians to say its one thing to persuade people to support them and then decided no that's not really what they meant after all.

The whole thing makes it impossible for the EU to respond to us, because we don't appear to know what we want.

The EU have been explicit in their position. So things they can not do because of the limitations of trade rules and EU law. Its possible work arounds could be possible for some things - but certainly not all which too many Brexiteers fail to acknowledge.

And then there is the a50 deadline which is like a snake coiled around May's neck slowly strangling her. A self imposed screwing of our negotiating position. One that kills off our Brexit options and ups the stakes into a brinkmanship battle - not with the EU but between the hardlines and the sane. Its not even about remaining, though that option might well end up being the only option left on the table through our own folly, rather than out of EU malice.

The longer we take to work out what we want the higher the stake become and the more we destroy the foundations of our economy in the meantime, even if we do stay in.

We have only just noticed that we've lost money worth 25% of our GDP and we have no net assets anymore, when in early 2016 we had significant assets. Project Fear they said was wrong. Well was it?

We are flat broke as a nation.

Then there is the Great Repel Bill. The Bill was supposed to be in the Commons this week. It was delayed a week due to the sheer number of amendments. There are nearly a dozen with enough Tory rebels to make them stick. Including one for parliament to have a meaningful vote on what option we take - including no deal. If parliament rejected this, we would be left in a situation where we sure as hell better hope a50 is reversible or we could end up unlawfully leave the EU by accident!

And the Lords could be fun for the Repel Bill. The Labour whip has vowed to examine every amendment properly even if the commons don't. And they are free and within their rights to do so.

Still May could exit stage left. Or left with egg all over her face as she has to suck up to the 'enemy' for being such a tool for the last 18months, because she hasn't made progress on the negotiations that really matter. The Tory party ones.

Whichever way you cut it, you can be sure on only one thing: it will go to the wire for both. And possibly beyond with an eleventh hour extension to prevent chaos.

There are hints that the public mood might be changing. Not fast enough. Yet. Interest rates? A break in the triple lock? Phil's budget sure will be interesting. Especially as Brexiteers want money to prepare and protect us from a no deal scenario which they also tell us will be just fine and won't be a problem. Bye Bye NHS, don't get flu this winter. As a note once infamously said: 'There's no many left'.

We are Greece. Only worse. And out of pressure and deadlines we alone created. We just haven't realised it. Yet.

And if this doesn't make you cringe and brace yourself in horror:

Danny Kemp‏ @dannyctkemp
May wants to take the floor at EU summit dinner on Thursday to explain Brexit policy to fellow leaders, senior official says

Just remember her party speech and think: What could possibly go wrong...

OP posts:
Thread gallery
55
BigChocFrenzy · 22/10/2017 23:02

I was thinking Green would be an interim leader, to take them through Brexit
No point in a talented young leader being ruined and wasted over Brexit

BigChocFrenzy · 22/10/2017 23:08

That interim leadership to protect the next gen Tory leader was supposed to be May's role, but she is third rate at best, which doesn't look enough to navigate Brexit with acceptable damage levels.

btw, I think that is why she appointed the 3 Dunces - mediocrity prefers mediocrity

she knows how lucky she was to become PM and she feels threatened by anyone with genuine talent
(Boris has no talent except for self-promotion)

OlennasWimple · 22/10/2017 23:29

Green would be a competent leader in a genuine interim situation in the way that Harriet Harman was Acting Leader of the Labour Party on a couple of occasions. He's a nice chap, gets things done, safe pair of hands.

But he's not the person we need in charge in what is the biggest crisis to face the country since the second world war

Peregrina · 22/10/2017 23:32

Who, as a matter of opinion, does anyone think has talent out of the current batch of Tory MPs. Who is one to watch?

BTW I thought that Margaret Becket did a good job of being a caretaker Labour leader.

RedToothBrush · 22/10/2017 23:42

www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/brexit-verhandlungen-ohne-qualen-geht-es-nicht-15257859.html
Ohne Qualen geht es nicht

German newspaper on the Brexit talks

Jim Waterson of buzzfeed has helpfully provided an English translation of the key passage. Its not kind.

Westminstenders: Sucking up to the 'enemy'
OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 23/10/2017 00:07

www.thesun.co.uk/news/4742848/theresa-may-delays-crunch-cabinet-debate-over-eu-trade-deal-until-next-year-over-fears-it-could-spark-resignations/
BREXIT CABI-NOT Theresa May delays crunch Cabinet debate over EU trade deal until next year over fears it could spark resignations

The PM will not ask her top table to agree what conditions Britain is prepared to accept from Brussels in exchange for it until the EU has first laid out its own terms

And in the meantime, what do you think is happening to British business...

Do you think the Cabinet will allow her to do this? Or will it provoke that stab in the back before Christmas?

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 23/10/2017 00:12

www.wired.co.uk/article/chinese-government-social-credit-score-privacy-invasion?utm_content=buffer51cad&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
Big data meets Big Brother as China moves to rate its citizens
The Chinese government plans to launch its Social Credit System in 2020. The aim? To judge the trustworthiness – or otherwise – of its 1.3 billion residents

Imagine this in the UK. Imagine this in conjunction with universal credit.

Don't worry if you can't. I'm fairly sure it will arrive here in due course. Especially if we lose the rights with Brexit.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 23/10/2017 00:20

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/23/boris-johnson-backs-diplomatic-solution-to-north-korea-crisis?CMP=twt_gu
Boris Johnson backs diplomatic solution to North Korea crisis
Foreign secretary to deliver speech setting out positions on Pyongyang and Iran nuclear deal that are at odds with Donald Trump

US Nuclear Bomber crews have just been put on 24hr a day alert. First time in 26 years. Note: They have missiles on alert 24/7 as a matter of course. Putting bombers out there, just will make NK (China / Russia) more nervous. This is more likely to spark something, if only just through sheer nervousness.

But hey look: We got Boris Johnson to talk sense into everyone and calm the situation down.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 23/10/2017 01:35

Chris Curtis @ chris_curtis
Yes, there has been a small movement towards wrong to leave, but far more interesting has been the hardening of the Remain vote since June

Westminstenders: Sucking up to the 'enemy'
OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 23/10/2017 01:37

Thats Chris Curtis of yougov.

And thats the figures which are leading The Times to changing tact. Not simply the wrong to leave numbers.

OP posts:
mathanxiety · 23/10/2017 03:31

Frumpety
say a person has a heart attack and gets treatment under their insurance , they are potentially at risk of further cardiac events , so would they still be covered if say 5 years down the line they had another heart attack ? Or would this cover be removed under pre-existing conditions ?

Your premiums would go up, most likely, if you were paying for it yourself. They would go up annually anyway, but might rise more than usual. If you were to shop around for new self paying insurance you might find a new company was loathe to take you on though under the ACA I don't think insurance companies can reject you on grounds of pre-existing conditions any more. If your insurance was part of your compensation package you might find you were asked to take a larger chunk out of take home pay to cover an increase in the premium.

Btw, and fwiw, when you go to an American hospital (apart from being taken there in extremis in an ambulance) you check in with a receptionist, who is not a HCP. You show your ID and your health insurance card and state the reason for your visit. For maternity admission, the receptionist is very often stationed in the maternity wing lobby so you don't have to traipse around the hospital. If the reason for your visit is a planned procedure your doctor will have contacted your insurance provider to get permission to go ahead with the proposed treatment, and you are supposed to give the insurance company notice that your admission or outpatient surgery or x-ray or whatever is going ahead.

The doctor will sometimes have to argue with a Physician's Assistant over the phone to get the ok to an operation - my late exFIL was a surgeon and used to frequently curse insurance companies and their poorly qualified employees. He was all for knocking insurance companies out of the healthcare equation altogether, on a personal level because they were not qualified to question his excellent (Ivy League) professional judgement, and in general because they in effect dictated medical and surgical protocols by means of protocol handbooks, and so stymied novel approaches. Also because the skyrocketing of medical costs happened once insurance companies started writing cheques for services. (Thanks to his line of work, he was also all for decriminalising narcotic use but that is another story.)

mathanxiety · 23/10/2017 03:40

RTB
I have just seen an interesting article in my local newspaper.
Its about a massive proposed new housing development which is unpopular in the area. Except its not.
Its the local conservative association asking locals to get in touch with them to oppose the development. Interestingly, it mentions no councillor nor named individual. Its just from the local association and gives an email address.
We know the local party has NO ONE left. And they have no one who can stand in any election locally. One of the two current councillors is in her 80s and yeah...
They are using the development to oppose national policy to go on a recruitment drive.
Interesting to see. I wonder if this is being done elsewhere. I suspect it is, especially the way it was worded as being from the local association. Its come from above not locally...
......

I do think that behaviourism is more limited in its reach than a lot of the very gendered proponents of it think.
Woman, this is behaviourism. So was the Farage poster.

It is dog whistle political action. It seeks to summon forth and galvanise what is lurking in the woodwork. It has always worked for the Tories (and for the DUP and its predecessors since the early 1900s).

I would be willing to bet that there are some benighted individuals who will come forth to oppose the new housing development RTB mentions. I would also be willing to bet that the article RTB found was not placed by a Russian bot.

mathanxiety · 23/10/2017 03:46

howabout Sun 22-Oct-17 14:00:43
Red I think your "local" Tories have been speaking to Ruth. That is exactly the approach she has taken to rebuilding the base in Scotland. It just won her 12 targeted seats with more in the pipeline so like it or not it works. Also take a look at how young most of her shiny new MPs are.

It works.

woman11017 · 23/10/2017 06:30

Hey math Smile But I still think behaviourism is more limited than its pay masters think. Grin. Look at people under 30, switching off social media in droves, looking for alternatives. Especially the youth of NI. They know what's what from people they trust.

And this isn't behaviourism:
50% funded in 3 days, another legal challenge to a50.
twitter.com/A50Challenge

Behaviourism is powerful, deeply flawed and reductive; but so was pop music/advertising in the 1960s. Not now. Stuff changes. "You can fool all of the people some of the time........"

That Sun piece seems to indicate the end of collective cabinet responsibility. red

woman11017 · 23/10/2017 06:42

Here we have the heroic Cadwallada, backed by Patrick et al. In US congress is still taking on weaponised social media. This is the story of brexit and 'behaviourism' for sure.
www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/oct/22/facebook-google-twitter-congress-hearing-trump-russia-election

The Times notes that although the numbers on leave/remain haven't shifted, the strength of feeling for remain is hardening. (can't re find link)

mathanxiety · 23/10/2017 06:43

Even China is hopping on the bandwagon. I think you are too optimistic.

woman11017 · 23/10/2017 06:53

whatwouldrondo would know much better than me, but Chinese society has operated on a very high level of surveillance through collectivity up till its capitalist turn of late. SM will/ is taking the place of surveillance, just like here, for the moment. FB/twitter already looks like a wind up gramophone to the youngsters, things will change, not necessarily for the better, I agree.

HashiAsLarry · 23/10/2017 07:02

Back when the potential pay rise for police with no extra budget was announce, I remember saying this seemed like a clever play to turn people against the police themselves. Take the pay rise - they're greedy and decimating budget. Don't take it and then they never needed it.

Some of you responded that this one seemed bourn of them realising the people weren't with them on the subject of police/nhs staff/etc.

Does this explain the current campaign the right wing press have got against the police at the moment?

BiglyBadgers · 23/10/2017 08:01

Since China, surveillance, big data and behavioural change have all been mentioned I thought I would put this here. I read it yesterday and it is fascinating and terrifying in equal measure. Long but would it if you have some spare time to read.

www.wired.co.uk/article/chinese-government-social-credit-score-privacy-invasion

BiglyBadgers · 23/10/2017 08:15

On the subject of the behaviourism and Brexit I agree that more complex use of behavioural change techniques and data did have an impact. However, I do think that the point about the young is an interesting one. There is a clear generational divide when it comes to brexit, so you can suggest that the techniques that worked so well in the older (pre-internet?) populations didn't work so well on those that have grown up with the internet and social media.

From my previous life when I looked at the subject of behavioural insights a lot there was certainly suggestion that the young are much more savvy and are therefore not as susceptible to the more blunt tools such as advertising.

This is a really complex area and certainly all the experts I spoke to openly said they didn't always know what would work and what wouldn't, also that what worked changed often and unexpectedly at times.

It is fascinating though and I am following the stories with interest.

Hunting4myWellies · 23/10/2017 08:27

Does anyone remember what organisation or firm is pushing the genetic science agenda in relation to Boris' 10 point plan for Brexit?

BiglyBadgers · 23/10/2017 08:41

Of course the brexit folks will use this as another example of how unreasonable the EU are and why we should just drop out without a deal.

UK plan to register EU citizens would be illegal, say MEPs

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/23/uk-plan-to-register-eu-citizens-would-be-illegal-say-meps

LurkingHusband · 23/10/2017 09:36

Of course the brexit folks will use this as another example of how unreasonable the EU are and why we should just drop out without a deal.

Not sure if it's just me, but the level of Brexsteria generally has fallen dramatically in the past 4 weeks. Not sure if this is because the money ran out, or the people who paid for Brexit have switched to a results based model. No results - no pay.

Not sure what the original source was - possibly one of the lunchtime news channels. But Friday lunchtime I caught a newsclip in one of my pro-EU feeds which was Leavers being interviewed in Barnsley. Without being unkind, it did seems as if they hadn't got a fucking clue. The gist of their replies (which I had via captions, as I was in Starbucks) was "we voted leave, but there are still foreigners here !" and in answer to "what would you do with EU citizens already here ?" the consensus was: "we'd have to send them back ... not in a bad way" [sic].

I'm a tad weary of tiptoeing around these morons. They really are thick as pigshit.

LurkingHusband · 23/10/2017 09:44

From my previous life when I looked at the subject of behavioural insights a lot there was certainly suggestion that the young are much more savvy and are therefore not as susceptible to the more blunt tools such as advertising.

Personally I think it's just that as on a cellular level, organisms react to change and ignore continuity, so people are the same. If you inflict a monotone diet of propaganda on them, they just stop listening. The same way your retinal cells stop firing when confronted with an unchanging image. The information doesn't even reach the brain.

Having had the pleasure of working with behavioural economists, I think one of the keys to social medias influence is the "people who bought ... also bought", and "xxxxx Likes". Because when people see these, there's a pleasurable sense of having made the right choice, and belonging. Such topics are like the holy grail for advertisers. because they offer the ultimate prize of getting your message across without spending a penny.

(If I wanted to wear a tinfoil had, I'd comment that a lot of the language skills that help pick out bots from real people are sadly lacking in the younger generation as a result of changes in language teaching. But I'm sure that's not the result of planning ....)

RedToothBrush · 23/10/2017 09:54

Times lead this morning:

Hammond faces Tory rebellion over budget

Sam Coates Times‏**********@SamCoatesTimes

A few nuggets from this morning’s Times p1. Some Treasury folk had identified pensions as a possible money pot. But...

He has been told that some of the budget ideas that he has suggested, such as squeezing cash from pensioners, would cause a Tory backbench revolt.

Sam Coates Times‏**********@SamCoatesTimes

  1. No11 allegedly ignored demands by No10 to water down an article in The Times where Hammond suggested he wd delay “no deal” spending

^A source said that his team had been warned before publication that the article would generate negative headlines and suggested changes to avoid the impression that he was delaying spending on preparations for a "no deal " Brexit. There was surprise when he pressed ahead regardless and went further the next day by saying that he would delay spending until the "last possible moment".

Sam Coates Times‏**********@SamCoatesTimes

  1. Sajid Javid, David Gauke, Michael Fallon, Andrea Leadsom, Michael Gove, Amber Rudd r amongst those who cd be CHX or think they cd be CHX

on the budget was described as "14 different job applications to be chancellor".

Sam Coates Times‏**********@SamCoatesTimes

  1. How can they tell it was a “job application” discussion? Not the usual doves hawks dust up...

^One cabinet member said: "This discussion wasn't about members of the cabinet dividing into doves and hawks, it was about everyone sympathising with the chancellor's difficult predicatment and trying to come up with their own ideas".

Sam Coates Times‏**********@SamCoatesTimes

  1. What friends of Michael Gove think about the Chancellorship

Some cabinet ministers want Mr Gove to be given the jobs, something his supporters also suggest in private.

Sam Coates Times‏**********@SamCoatesTimes

  1. But is David Gauke the leading contender if there is a sudden switch?

^However, Mr Gauke, who is well liked by colleagues, has been a treasury minister and chief secretary to the treasury.

Sam Coates Times‏**********@SamCoatesTimes

  1. Other candidates are available - remember Leadsom wanted to be Chancellor under PM Boris

One source said that of all the contributions, Mrs Leadsom's were the most practical and sensible.

Sam Coates Times‏**********@SamCoatesTimes

  1. The briefing a week ago to the Sunday Times about next month’s budget being bold is yet another bit of grit in the No10/11 relationship

Allies of the prime minister were also incandescent at briefings to Sunday papers a weeks ago that Mr Hammond would deliver a "bold" budget with radical ideas. "What were they thinking?" one said. "When do you ever play up the significance of a budget like that, particularly in the current situation with public finances?".

Sam Coates Times‏**********@SamCoatesTimes

  1. Cabinet ministers tell me public sector pay row isn’t over, whatever Hammond thinks, because he moved on police but not others in 18/19

Mr Hammond is likely to face further pressure to raise public sector pay, despite telling the cabinet that any increases must be funded by existing budgets. It emerged yesterday that public sector wages had dipped below those in the private sector for the first time since the financial crisis. Analysis of Treasury hourly earnings figures by the GMB union showed that workers in the public sector were on average paid 0.6 per cent less than their private sector counterparts. In 2005, when records began, public sector workers enjoyed a premium of 3.1 per cent compared with the private sector - and it had risen to 5.8 per cent in 2010.

Sam Coates Times‏**********@SamCoatesTimes

10. Remember: Hammond must find £8bn minimum across the Pt to pay old bills. Tax rises, spending cuts, changing fiscal rules all toxic

OP posts: