Westminstenders: Sucking up to the 'enemy'

[RedToothBrush]

Phil Hammond called the EU the enemy. Then retracted it. A classic political move, to pitch to one group and then say you didn't mean it after all.

This is the UK's negotiation strategy. Because the negotiation isn't really with the EU. Its the ongoing debate over the what leaving the EU actually means since it wasn't officially defined prior to the referendum and has been left to politicians to say its one thing to persuade people to support them and then decided no that's not really what they meant after all.

The whole thing makes it impossible for the EU to respond to us, because we don't appear to know what we want.

The EU have been explicit in their position. So things they can not do because of the limitations of trade rules and EU law. Its possible work arounds could be possible for some things - but certainly not all which too many Brexiteers fail to acknowledge.

And then there is the a50 deadline which is like a snake coiled around May's neck slowly strangling her. A self imposed screwing of our negotiating position. One that kills off our Brexit options and ups the stakes into a brinkmanship battle - not with the EU but between the hardlines and the sane. Its not even about remaining, though that option might well end up being the only option left on the table through our own folly, rather than out of EU malice.

The longer we take to work out what we want the higher the stake become and the more we destroy the foundations of our economy in the meantime, even if we do stay in.

We have only just noticed that we've lost money worth 25% of our GDP and we have no net assets anymore, when in early 2016 we had significant assets. Project Fear they said was wrong. Well was it?

We are flat broke as a nation.

Then there is the Great Repel Bill. The Bill was supposed to be in the Commons this week. It was delayed a week due to the sheer number of amendments. There are nearly a dozen with enough Tory rebels to make them stick. Including one for parliament to have a meaningful vote on what option we take - including no deal. If parliament rejected this, we would be left in a situation where we sure as hell better hope a50 is reversible or we could end up unlawfully leave the EU by accident!

And the Lords could be fun for the Repel Bill. The Labour whip has vowed to examine every amendment properly even if the commons don't. And they are free and within their rights to do so.

Still May could exit stage left. Or left with egg all over her face as she has to suck up to the 'enemy' for being such a tool for the last 18months, because she hasn't made progress on the negotiations that really matter. The Tory party ones.

Whichever way you cut it, you can be sure on only one thing: it will go to the wire for both. And possibly beyond with an eleventh hour extension to prevent chaos.

There are hints that the public mood might be changing. Not fast enough. Yet. Interest rates? A break in the triple lock? Phil's budget sure will be interesting. Especially as Brexiteers want money to prepare and protect us from a no deal scenario which they also tell us will be just fine and won't be a problem. Bye Bye NHS, don't get flu this winter. As a note once infamously said: 'There's no many left'.

We are Greece. Only worse. And out of pressure and deadlines we alone created. We just haven't realised it. Yet.

And if this doesn't make you cringe and brace yourself in horror:

Danny Kemp‏ @dannyctkemp
May wants to take the floor at EU summit dinner on Thursday to explain Brexit policy to fellow leaders, senior official says

Just remember her party speech and think: What could possibly go wrong...

We know the local party has NO ONE left. And they have no one who can stand in any election locally. One of the two current councillors is in her 80s and yeah...

De lurks to say that I remember a conversation about 20 years ago in which it was postulated that the long working hours culture in which it is difficult for professionals not to opt out of the Working Time Directive if they want to progress their career, coupled with the lack of affordable public transport (leading to a long knackering commute) meant an inevitable decline in the membership of the Tory Party.

De lurks to say that I remember a conversation about 20 years ago in which it was postulated that the long working hours culture in which it is difficult for professionals not to opt out of the Working Time Directive if they want to progress their career, coupled with the lack of affordable public transport (leading to a long knackering commute) meant an inevitable decline in the membership of the Tory Party.

Echoes the cyclical nature of change, and the increasingly painful reality that the absence of conditions that breed wealth will lead to an absence of people who vote Tory.

A little like the rush to offshore work (thus impoverishing the indigenous population) and then wondering why no one is buying your shit anymore. Coupled with the added insult that offshored labour starts demanding payrises which erode any profit you thought you were making.

That paragraph from the Faisal Islam Long read is damning: "An internal industry memo circulating at the Frankfurt Motor Show, revealed to Sky News, described a recent "disillusioning" meeting with the Government on Brexit customs arrangements and "a lack of detailed information and blocking of our questions" which attendees concluded was a "desperate attempt" to get the industry to solve the customs conundrum posed by the Government's approach to Brexit."

It's not a case of the "blind leading the blind". It's a case of the blind leading the sighted people but in the dark and through a maze, while insisting that the sighted people tell them where the potholes are and which way to turn

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-energy-bill-cap-civil-servants-power-firms-big-six-whitehall-government-a8011296.html
Civil servants lay ground to dump Theresa May's planned energy bill cap amid cabinet split
Exclusive: Investors have been told the Government has not decided ifthere is 'any need' for cap

Red I think your "local" Tories have been speaking to Ruth. That is exactly the approach she has taken to rebuilding the base in Scotland. It just won her 12 targeted seats with more in the pipeline so like it or not it works. Also take a look at how young most of her shiny new MPs are.

On the energy cap I think it is pretty much stated government policy for them to drag out the legislation change long enough for the industry to get its act together and stop gouging of its own accord.

I was at a City event the other day (for my sins) and got talking to a former Lord Mayor. He was absolutely incandescent that the UK's export and financial services sectors were being screwed over by what used to be the party of business. No doubt his views are shared by hundreds of thousands of businesspeople, most of whom will have voted Tory in recent years and many of whom will have donated to the party.

bigly - I do take your point about people who choose to work in the NHS. And that health care tourism isn't the thing that's depriving the system of cash (though no study will ever be able to tell how much is being spent on people who aren't entitled to it, because if we knew about them they probably wouldn't have received the care)

Unfortunately it's become a bit of a totemic issue, that does need addressing in some way. Every story about the pregnant women flying to the UK to give birth on the NHS erodes public trust and confidence in the system, even if these are such outlier stories as to be insignificant overall.

And when you say "frontline staff" choose to work in the NHS and don't want to be part of the process to collect £££s, do you mean doctors and nurses? Because I'm not sure that many of the GP receptionists I've come across would describe their job as a vocation because they believe in the principles of cradle to grave care, more that it's an interesting, stable admin job near to where they live. And I've not heard of any proposals or come across care systems where doctors and nurses are expected to have the card machine in their office to process payment before examination (though they may exist). The process should be that the admin staff do the necessary paperwork before HCPs engage with the patient. Obviously in an emergency, care is provided straightaway and the paperwork is sorted out afterwards - even the toughest of US health systems won't hold back care from a patient in the ER who needs immediate attention

Irene - that's interesting. I do think that the Tory party is teetering on the brink of the precipice of "what are we really all about?"

Their money comes from business, so it needs to support business both directly and indirectly (eg through the taxation or not of HNW individuals). But there is just no way that the party which leads us into Brexit could be described as pro-business, whilst their party faithful are literally dying out.

It will be interesting to see what a new, younger membership will mean to the party. Meanwhile Labour is lurching around, alienating many of its core voters as it solidifies itself as a harder left party than it has been in recent years.

Ideally the Lib Dems should rise triumphant from the middle ground, picking up the votes of so many people who no longer feel able to vote Labour or Tory....

frumpety - the rules on pre-existing conditions depends entirely on individual insurance policies, not on charging for health care per se

But yes, some people in the US find that they aren't covered for subsequent significant health problems. Some children have such extensive (and thus expensive) treatment in their early years that they have reached the limit of their cover before they even start school

Unfortunately it's become a bit of a totemic issue, that does need addressing in some way. Every story about the pregnant women flying to the UK to give birth on the NHS erodes public trust and confidence in the system, even if these are such outlier stories as to be insignificant overall.

I really don't believe we should be pandering to people trying to distract from the real issues in the NHS by throwing out a racist narrative of foreigners stealing our care. Spending time and money on solving a non-exist issue is not the right approach. Instead we should be countering the disinformation on this subject with the truth. That the money lost is negligible and should not be a priority at this time. When the NHS is fully funded and running like a well oiled machine, then fine let's all waste time and money pissing about solving minor issues, but until then it is just wasting time and money.

Not only that but buy continuing to posit solutions to non-exist problems rather then countering the message you do not make them less totemic. Instead you strengthen the belief in them (if it wasn't an issue why would they be putting so much effort into solving it?), while creating whole new issues and conflicts. You will, at best, just swap the stories of pregnant foriegn women for stories of pregnant British women being forced to appeal against incorrect bills.

As for the comment on doctors and nurses not caring because they won't be asked to hold the credit card machine the culture of an organisation and it's priorities impact on my even if I am not directly carrying out the action. One of the reasons I left my last job in local government was because of some of the policies around cutting care and other front line staff. I wasn't one of these staff, but the fact that it showed the priorities of the organisation I worked for were not priories I could support or felt were right meant I no longer wanted to work their.

Irene that is as I would expect, but it isn't as if self same bankers are suddenly going to start voting Labour over it.

There...damn it.

Irene the majority of my colleagues are Tory voters, like many businesspeople. I've yet to meet one who isn't aghast at what's happening in government (the company stands to be a big loser from brexit on a number of fronts).

The problem is that there isn't anywhere for pro business Tories to go. I find it vanishingly difficult to imagine many of my colleagues voting for a JC led Labour, but the Lib Dems for whatever reason are not picking up these votes. The UK desperately needs a credible centre ground party. Sadly I think that the coalition destroyed the chances of the Lib Dems being that party, for this generation at least.

There is much less clear political water between a one nation Tory and the Labour right, than there is between either of those groups and the far extremes of their own parties. But it's clear that a political earthquake would be required to ever bring those groups together. Perhaps a hard brexit will do it.

By the way, to return to howabout's point about the Scottish Tories, Ruth D has done very well out of appealing to moderate pro-business Tories in Scotland.

(paywall) Damian Green is the man of the moment

One to watch in the scramble to be PM after May is toppled
One of the few “sensibles” in the cabinet, so the best hope of avoiding a cliff edge

and he actually is able to perform competently in public and answer questions non-robotically.
He can crack jokes without a speechwriter

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/damian-green-is-the-man-of-the-moment-9tx6w23rb

It was Margaret Thatcher who famously said that “every prime minister needs a Willie”,
< yes, I remember downing litres of brain bleach >
referring to Willie Whitelaw, her deputy, enforcer and closest ally.

Damian Green performs the same role today

......he denied another story that David Cameron split his trousers and Alicia, now emerging as some sort of mobile haberdasher, found a needle and thread and carried out some running repairs.

“I’d like to deny any connection between my wife and David Cameron’s crotch at any time.”
< yes, a nice reposte >

Pissed off supporters can stop donating to the party machine, stop networking and encouraging others to vote, can stay home themselves at GEs.

They may not have a home, but they don't have to support policies that significantly damage their businesses and the economy

Mind you, looks like the disaster capitalists' surreptitious funding more than makes up for the loss of usual business donations

YY BigChoc. I'm not at all suggesting that these businesspeople are going to turn into Corbynistas, or even vote Labour while holding their noses. But they will stop donating to the Tories and stop publicly supporting them... that matters.

My hope is that enough of them will get together, SOON, and make very clear to the Tory leadership that the current Brexit situation is intolerable, and that we need to go full throttle on the EEA option.

Ha:

www.theguardian.com/business/2017/oct/22/uk-business-chiefs-unite-urgent-brexit-transition-deal-david-davis

Though I'm not sure they've grasped the point that the EU won't agree a transition deal until the shape of the long-term deal is in place.

And the Tories rely on big donors, unlike the labour party who get the majority of their funds from small donations and the unions. www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-donations-money-raised-hedge-funds-bankers-analysis-general-election-2017-a7771346.html

Here's a gem from the thread on "Gunpowder" ...

At one point, it was an offence not to celebrate the crushing of the Catholic foe after the passing of an act of Parliament.

s/Catholic/EU/ ?

(which does raise the question - stupid or not - about any religious dimension to Brexit ?)

Anyone else think that the new unofficial Tory housing policy has aq familiar ring to it ?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41714128

The government should borrow money to fund the building of hundreds of thousands of new homes, a cabinet minister says.

Communities Secretary Sajid Javid said taking advantage of record-low interest rates "can be the right thing if done sensibly".

(contd) ...

He's going to be disappointed, isn't he ?

Just watching that now LH

I'm not sure about Damian Green being the next Tory leader. I reckon if May lasts another year or two, he Tories might think they need to re-invent themselves to get past this whole horrible episode where everyone involved is tainted and blameable in some part. They might want to steal a march on Labour and have someone much younger in order to try and appeal to younger people. And Green will be in his mid-60s by then.

Not sure if this has been posted, but this thread is really interesting / worrying on the Russian bots / Brexit story: twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/922174264115163136