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Brexit

Westminstenders: Sucking up to the 'enemy'

979 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/10/2017 18:09

Phil Hammond called the EU the enemy. Then retracted it. A classic political move, to pitch to one group and then say you didn't mean it after all.

This is the UK's negotiation strategy. Because the negotiation isn't really with the EU. Its the ongoing debate over the what leaving the EU actually means since it wasn't officially defined prior to the referendum and has been left to politicians to say its one thing to persuade people to support them and then decided no that's not really what they meant after all.

The whole thing makes it impossible for the EU to respond to us, because we don't appear to know what we want.

The EU have been explicit in their position. So things they can not do because of the limitations of trade rules and EU law. Its possible work arounds could be possible for some things - but certainly not all which too many Brexiteers fail to acknowledge.

And then there is the a50 deadline which is like a snake coiled around May's neck slowly strangling her. A self imposed screwing of our negotiating position. One that kills off our Brexit options and ups the stakes into a brinkmanship battle - not with the EU but between the hardlines and the sane. Its not even about remaining, though that option might well end up being the only option left on the table through our own folly, rather than out of EU malice.

The longer we take to work out what we want the higher the stake become and the more we destroy the foundations of our economy in the meantime, even if we do stay in.

We have only just noticed that we've lost money worth 25% of our GDP and we have no net assets anymore, when in early 2016 we had significant assets. Project Fear they said was wrong. Well was it?

We are flat broke as a nation.

Then there is the Great Repel Bill. The Bill was supposed to be in the Commons this week. It was delayed a week due to the sheer number of amendments. There are nearly a dozen with enough Tory rebels to make them stick. Including one for parliament to have a meaningful vote on what option we take - including no deal. If parliament rejected this, we would be left in a situation where we sure as hell better hope a50 is reversible or we could end up unlawfully leave the EU by accident!

And the Lords could be fun for the Repel Bill. The Labour whip has vowed to examine every amendment properly even if the commons don't. And they are free and within their rights to do so.

Still May could exit stage left. Or left with egg all over her face as she has to suck up to the 'enemy' for being such a tool for the last 18months, because she hasn't made progress on the negotiations that really matter. The Tory party ones.

Whichever way you cut it, you can be sure on only one thing: it will go to the wire for both. And possibly beyond with an eleventh hour extension to prevent chaos.

There are hints that the public mood might be changing. Not fast enough. Yet. Interest rates? A break in the triple lock? Phil's budget sure will be interesting. Especially as Brexiteers want money to prepare and protect us from a no deal scenario which they also tell us will be just fine and won't be a problem. Bye Bye NHS, don't get flu this winter. As a note once infamously said: 'There's no many left'.

We are Greece. Only worse. And out of pressure and deadlines we alone created. We just haven't realised it. Yet.

And if this doesn't make you cringe and brace yourself in horror:

Danny Kemp‏ @dannyctkemp
May wants to take the floor at EU summit dinner on Thursday to explain Brexit policy to fellow leaders, senior official says

Just remember her party speech and think: What could possibly go wrong...

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RedToothBrush · 23/10/2017 09:59

Alan Beattie‏*@alanbeattie*
UK ambition for post-Brexit FTAs already being dialled down. => UK minister seeks US trade deal focused on services

www.ft.com/content/2f8c8a8a-b711-11e7-8c12-5661783e5589
Liam Fox seeks to narrow focus for post-Brexit US trade deal
Trade minister seeks accord on services as problems loom on goods and agriculture

Lord Mandelson, former EU trade commissioner, said: “Would the US go along with a deal that only covered services, given their strong agricultural and industrial interests? What would that leave us to negotiate over?“Services deals are notoriously difficult to negotiate in a free-trade agreement, so much so that it has almost never happened.”

and

Adam Marshall, director-general of British Chambers of Commerce, said he was “uneasy” about an early US trade deal, given that the UK would come to the talks with fewer experienced negotiators and less structural advantages

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RandomlyGenerated · 23/10/2017 10:05

LH on the subject of the development of social media bots, there was a good episode of The Digital Human on R4 last week - discussing spam bots and how sophisticated they have become by learning how to use language. Worth a listen on catch up.

thecatfromjapan · 23/10/2017 10:08

Here's an academic article on the use of fake accounts and bots in the Referendum here . It's been tweeted into my timeline. I like the fact it mentions the impact of automation on democratic process (which is, I think, the huge issue.)

I do wonder what is going to happen with the Budget (and Hammond).

I, too, am utterly tired of treating Leavers with kid gloves.

Motheroffourdragons · 23/10/2017 10:18

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

LurkingHusband · 23/10/2017 10:26

RandomlyGenerated

Thanks for the heads up.

I'm not even trying to be remotely funny, but I suspect whilst AI has a hell of a long way to go before it might be of use to us, at some level , AI bots have already started pulling clear of the less intelligent humans in society, if we consider an IQ spread of 70-130 ...

And if they haven't yet, they're within sight of it.

I think it's not unreasonable to raise the possibility that by 2030, there will be some instances of artificial intelligence that would rank higher than some humans - who have the vote.

Brave New World ?
Future Shock ?

prettybird · 23/10/2017 10:56

Ds tells me that a couple of the Facebook computers started "talking" to each other in their own language and had to be shut down Shock Don't know if that was #fakenews though Wink

HashiAsLarry · 23/10/2017 11:03

Let's not forget Tay, Microsoft's attempt
www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/mar/24/tay-microsofts-ai-chatbot-gets-a-crash-course-in-racism-from-twitter

RandomlyGenerated · 23/10/2017 11:26

prettybird that was reported in the media, but probably not as Skynet like as some reported it:

gizmodo.com/no-facebook-did-not-panic-and-shut-down-an-ai-program-1797414922

prettybird · 23/10/2017 11:29

I did say it might be fake news Grin

BiglyBadgers · 23/10/2017 11:35

(If I wanted to wear a tinfoil had, I'd comment that a lot of the language skills that help pick out bots from real people are sadly lacking in the younger generation as a result of changes in language teaching. But I'm sure that's not the result of planning ....)

Don't know of any actual studies on this but my experience on Twitter is quite the opposite. It is the young people who spot the bots a mile away and the older users who have to be gently told that the person they arguing with probably isn't real.

ElenaGreco123 · 23/10/2017 11:54

Re: Brexit dinner leaks.
Why do all the UK papers accept unquestioningly that the Germans leaked? Because it was printed in German?!
Who benefits? May's enemies range from Osborne to Farage via the entire cabinet. My money would be on a Tory leaking.

HashiAsLarry · 23/10/2017 11:58

elena I'm sure it's nothing to do with painting Europeans as dodgy or anything Grin

ElenaGreco123 · 23/10/2017 12:11

You are riggt hashi. Grin

BigChocFrenzy · 23/10/2017 13:10

Nina Schick has translated Germany's FAS account of May, Juncker and that short after-dinner (begging) speech.

They seem to think she now realises the seriousness of the situation for the UK and that no-deal would be disastrous

https://medium.com/@ninaschick/brexit-negotiations-not-without-pain-cb3705974bd6

LurkingHusband · 23/10/2017 13:35

Apparently we're going to hear later today how well things are going.

Don't blink.

woman11017 · 23/10/2017 13:43

My money would be on a Tory leaking.

^Downing Street refused to deny the substance of a German report saying that, at her dinner with Jean-Claude Juncker on Monday last week, Theresa May was “begging for help” over Brexit. (See 11.58am.)
The spokesman refused to say when the EU withdrawal bill would return to the Commons^.

www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/oct/23/theresa-may-commons-brexit-statement-leak-saying-may-was-begging-for-help-at-dinner-with-juncker-triggers-fresh-row-with-brussels-politics-live

TheElementsSong · 23/10/2017 13:53

Apparently we're going to hear later today how well things are going.

Or, you could just read the other Brexit threads full of glowing optimism Grin

Badders08 · 23/10/2017 14:02
prettybird · 23/10/2017 14:37

@JeanneBartram: "Who actually trades solely under WTO rules?” by James Hardy https://t.co/KnqU9S7N42

Article in Medium.

Answer is apparently that the only WTO member with no FTA is Mauritania - and even it has some fishing agreements with the EU Shock

woman11017 · 23/10/2017 14:51

After its second reading on 11 September, the Commons expected to begin line-by-line scrutiny of the EU Withdrawal Bill in early October. But that was before MPs tabled more than 300 amendments and proposed nearly 60 new clauses – some of which have the support of several Conservative MPs

This leaves the Government facing the very real prospect of defeat, despite its deal with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). Having failed to engage Parliament in any meaningful way before the bill was introduced, the Government is now forced to negotiate behind the scenes. Hence the delay.

www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/waiting-brexit-eu-withdrawal-bill

LurkingHusband · 23/10/2017 15:04

This leaves the Government facing the very real prospect of defeat, despite its deal with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). Having failed to engage Parliament in any meaningful way before the bill was introduced, the Government is now forced to negotiate behind the scenes. Hence the delay.

THE PROBLEM IS EVERY DAYS DELAY IS FEEDING INTO THE FEAR SOME MPS WILL BE STARTING TO HAVE ABOUT THEIR RE_ELECTION CHANCES - SKEWING THE MATHS FURTHER.

(SORRY ABOUT SHOUTING, BUT IT'S VERY DIFFICULT TO HEAR YOURSELF THINK WITH THIS DAMN CLOCK TICKING)

Peregrina · 23/10/2017 15:16

THE PROBLEM IS EVERY DAYS DELAY IS FEEDING INTO THE FEAR SOME MPS WILL BE STARTING TO HAVE ABOUT THEIR RE_ELECTION CHANCES - SKEWING THE MATHS FURTHER.

This is the tricky one though. A number of MPs were Remainers but their constituents weren't. It didn't actually seem to make a great lot of difference at the last election - some Remain MPs in staunchly Leave areas got re-elected with comfortable majorities. I suspect it means that they don't know which way to turn. A few like Amber Rudd are probably only too aware of their precarious position, others like Deadwood Redwood neither know nor care because he got returned last time when his pro-Remain electorate ought by rights to have given him the push.

woman11017 · 23/10/2017 15:34

Tomorrow in Westminster:
Conference with Caroline Lucas, Ian Dunt, David Lammy et al.
Britain for Europe, on behalf of European Movement UK, Scientists for Europe and Healthier in Europe
www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/pro-eu-conference-tickets-38574745101
£5

woman11017 · 23/10/2017 15:45

@davidallengreen
The irony that the most effective support for May is now not from her cabinet, or from the 1922, still less from UK electorate.
It is EU27.

SKEWING THE MATHS
Does that mean you think they'll be tempted to pass the repel bill to keep their seats?

Cailleach1 · 23/10/2017 15:47

"Answer is apparently that the only WTO member with no FTA is Mauritania - and even it has some fishing agreements with the EU"

It then beggars belief that the BBC don't correct Redwood who is still repeating that most of the rest of the world just trades with the EU under WTO rules. Why don't they even ask him to name one country that trades with the EU under WTO rules only and without any other agreements? Besides Mauritania. How can they facilitate the continuous spread of this falsehood without challenging it?

Other Brexiteers are also stating it, unchallenged.