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Brexit

Westminstenders: Beano or Bust

978 replies

RedToothBrush · 29/09/2017 21:33

The last week has seemingly been eventful but not in the way that's on the surface.

It's what's going on behind the scenes and the little comments in less high profile speeches that's more telling.

On the one hand the Norths think the May speech is a laying down "an offer" that the EU can not accept, in order to set up a no deal situation.

On the other hand Telegraph Journalist Peter Foster thinks there things going on in Brussels with the EU set to compromise in someway and help May present a deal acceptable to the British. You have to wonder whether the "presentational" stuff is about a deal to essentially be in the EU but not in the EU. A Brexit Existing in A Name Only. Beano.

It's difficult to tell, and it will come down to brinkmanship over timing. For both a deal and for the Repel Bill as the two sides in parliament try to push things to their limit for their own ends.

In this vacuum of uncertainty CBI and their "arch enemies" the TUC have put out a joint statement saying no deal is nuts and will screw every one and the way EU cits have been treated has been dreadful.

As it stands it does look like May is serious about a deal and Davis is also acting in this way. Johnson and Hannan have launched their Institute for Free Trade (at the foreign office breaking ministerial code, but hell there's no consequences these days anyway cos May dare not let Johnson off the Brexit hook) in retaliation to try and retell the Brexit story as always being about free trade rather than racist. Unfortunately leavers seem to have bust that by admitting they are considerably more racist than Remainers by their own admission.

Then there's Trump and Bombardier. Just as Brexiteers are pushing for this closer relationship with the US in trade, despite May personally lobbying Trump he fucks her over slapping 220% tariff on Bombardier and putting the future of 4000 jobs at risk. This was inevitable as Trump fucks everyone for his own gain. The US won't ride to the aid of the British capitalists. They'll just eat them alive.

This week sees an important vote by the European Parliament on Brexit red lines. One of the votes states that the UK has to either stay in the customs union and internal market or NI has to have a special arrangement and stay in the customs union and the internal market in order to protect the EUs border integrity. Neither is compatible with what the Cons and the DUP have said they want.

It's also the Tory Party conference.May's big speech, in which she must throw red meat to the swivel eyed loons on right, is on Weds. There are of course, no debates at ConParty because, well, they can't behave like good little children without supervision. Instead the conference is to, erm... yeah we'll find out next week.

OP posts:
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woman11017 · 05/10/2017 20:16

Nobody's mentioning the news from the City
'Cept us, FT and old man North. Madness.

BigChocFrenzy · 05/10/2017 20:17

(paywall) Tory rebels prepared to confront Theresa May within three days and tell her to quit

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/05/exclusive-tory-rebels-say-5050-chance-will-tell-theresa-may/

Tory rebels have said that there is a “50/50” chance they will confront Theresa May in the next three days and demand that she steps down before the end of the year.
....
the rebels.... have the support of around 30 Tory MPs
.....
if they can attract sufficient support they will confront the Prime Minister directly and tell her to go.

“It has to be all or nothing,” one of the Tory MPs said.
“We can’t have a situation where a few go public with their criticism and the rest fade away.

There is a small window of opportunity here, more people are coming forward.
“This is not about any personal animosity towards Theresa May.
She is just no longer seen as credible or competent.”

Ed Vaizey [a former minister]:
“I think there will be quite a few people who will now be pretty firmly of the view that she should resign.

“I didn’t predict Brexit, I certainly didn’t predict the election result.
But the Tory Party conference was a great opportunity to reboot the party and therefore reboot the country to give it a clear sense of direction
and that didn’t happen.
So yes, I am concerned.”

However the plotters are planning an alternative strategy in which they will confront Mrs May directly with a letter
in a bid to pressure her into setting out a timetable for her resignation.

“She needs to be gone by the end of the year,” one said.
....
Rebels said that the group calling for Mrs May to go comprises both Remainers and Leavers.

They are avoiding communicating over Whatsapp amid concerns that their names would be leaked Grin

prettybird · 05/10/2017 20:19

Ironically - given it would have reduced their numbers - even after their 56 seat landslide in 2015, the SNP were/are still in favour of PR.

I have to admit that after initially not liking it, I have become a convert to the hybrid d'Hondt system that we have in the Scottish Parliament, ie a mix of constituency and list MSPs. The only thing I don't like about it is that even if a candidate has been rejected by the electorate, if he/she is top of the "list" for the wider area, they'll get in anyway Mohammed Sarwar I'm looking at you

However, like the AfD in Germany, it would have meant that UKIP would have achieved representation in Westminster.

It is to Scotland's great shame that the last European elections resulted in our only elected UKIP representative at any level , the twat MEP David Coburn.

BigChocFrenzy · 05/10/2017 20:23

When we are facing the most complex and important situation - Brexit - since WW2,
when we need the best brains for creating new ideas, for organising, for carrying out complex prepping ...

the country has never had such low grade politicians, in the 2 main parties

The current top ranks of both parties would mostly not have risen above PPS or junior minister level, before the Noughties.
AND
both government in particular, but also the Official Opposition, are shamelessly putting party before country & people

BigChocFrenzy · 05/10/2017 20:26

pretty I'd rather have politicians elected openly - and shown up as incomoetemt and venal,
rather than have the main parties policies distorted by pandering to their voters

woman11017 · 05/10/2017 20:30

However, like the AfD in Germany, it would have meant that UKIP would have achieved representation in Westminster.
This is exactly why I worry about PR. prettybird
But you might be right too BCF It depends so much on the quality and integrity of the mainstream parties.
Israeli knesset has always been hamstrung by tiny extremist right wing religious nutters holding balance of power between labour and likud.
Rebels said that the group calling for Mrs May to go comprises both Remainers and Leavers
That's interesting.
Stephen Bush on why Boris may not be PM, but he thinks tory hard right in ascendance
www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/10/boris-johnson-might-not-be-next-tory-leader-his-faction-ascendant
Official Opposition, are shamelessly putting party before country & people Kinnock junior was a disgrace on channel 4 debate.

prettybird · 05/10/2017 20:36

Sorry - should have made it clear that at least if they'd been voted in by one of the PR systems, then UKIP would have actually had to deliver rather than just complain from outside the system. It's an unpleasant but necessary corollary of a PR system.

The Scottish Holyrood system was designed never to allow a single party an overall majority (the SNP broke the system in 2011 Confused), theoretically to force consensus politics in a unicameral parliament.

woman11017 · 05/10/2017 20:42

@BazzieSmith

If the Lib Dems take five seats from the Tories and Labour gain 2 - Lib Dems will have the balance of power 321 -320

@BazzieSmith
Lib Dem targets - Richmond Park (2), St Ives (312), Cheltenham (2,569, Devon North (4322), Cheadle (4,507), Lewes (5,508), St Albans (6,109)

I know St Albans has a pretty active remain group. Smile Before I lost my Facebook contacts. Confused Thanks vlad.

woman11017 · 05/10/2017 20:46

Sorry if this one's already been posted:
Britain’s Britvic Plc (BVIC.L) announced the closure of its Norwich factory on Tuesday, putting 240 jobs at risk and prompting fellow consumer goods producer Unilever to warn it might follow suite with a neighbouring plant.

Consumer demand in Britain has borne the brunt of a rise in inflation to its highest in nearly five years, largely due to the pound’s tumble since last year’s vote to leave the European Union.

The weaker pound has also pushed up costs for manufacturers who import ingredients, leading some companies to raise prices, sell key businesses or move manufacturing facilities out of Britain
.
uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britvic-restructuring/britvic-cuts-240-jobs-in-norwich-closure-unilever-could-follow-idUKKCN1C80HE

HashiAsLarry · 05/10/2017 21:00

Watching England play football at the moment. Struck by two things

  • the amount of fans who blindly believe or repeat the mantra that they're the best team ever
  • watching them inoculates me against patriotism, let alone nationalism.

In other news I just turned in a performance of such dire ineptitude in the kitchen it made DH ask if I'd secretly joined the Tories.

HashiAsLarry · 05/10/2017 21:00

Watching England play football at the moment. Struck by two things

  • the amount of fans who blindly believe or repeat the mantra that they're the best team ever
  • watching them inoculates me against patriotism, let alone nationalism.

In other news I just turned in a performance of such dire ineptitude in the kitchen it made DH ask if I'd secretly joined the Tories.

prettybird · 05/10/2017 21:08

Whereas we in Scotland are expecting another glorious failure - almost, but not quite, getting there Grin

prettybird · 05/10/2017 21:12

....but on a slightly more serious note, the English media's obsession with the "greatness" of English teams and bloody 1966 was probably a contributory factor in the growth of support for Scottish independence. Wink

HashiAsLarry · 05/10/2017 21:15

I like to talk about how good the English performance was in world cup 94. Normally takes a while before someone realises they didn't qualify for it Wink

Bearbehind · 05/10/2017 21:18

I'm not defending the English obsession with wallowing in triumphs of decades ago, it's pitiful, but the a Scottish obsession of supporting Scotland and anyone playing England is more than a little divisive.

ElenaGreco123 · 05/10/2017 21:28

It has been a depressing week. I am with Bigly as well. May may be heartless and cruel, but I am not and I have compassion for people in distress.

Has anyone else else had a look at the adverts next to the article about May on politics.co.uk? Boeing loves us apparently.

Westminstenders: Beano or Bust
BigChocFrenzy · 05/10/2017 21:46

(paywall) Conservative conference: ministers ready to quit over Brexit (but insist it will be OK)

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/conservative-conference-ministers-ready-to-quit-over-brexit-but-insist-it-will-be-ok-gph9tvp9f

Cabinet ministers warned that up to five of their colleagues could resign over Brexit
as they revealed that they are still in the dark over Theresa May’s plans with only three months left until trade talks are likely to start.

Senior figures are questioning whether the prime minister can hold her government together when she finally starts to try to forge cabinet consensus on the plans for Britain’s relations with the EU after 2021.

Most cabinet ministers told The Times that they were optimistic about Brexit
but admitted that they would never publicly set out the downsides because of the risk of being seen to run “Project Fear 2”.

Several said there was still a huge gulf between Remain and Leave-supporting colleagues
and some revealed their frustration that
Mrs May has been blocking attempts to thrash out basic issues in meetings Confused

“If there is a leadership contest now
it would be between David Davis and Boris Johnson,
with Mr Davis the candidate of Remainers Confused Confused and Mr Johnson winning Angry” one cabinet minister said.

LurkingHusband · 05/10/2017 21:51

with only three months left until trade talks are likely to start.

Says who ?

BigChocFrenzy · 05/10/2017 21:51

I think DD could end up as the compromise least bad candidate
Depressing if Tory Retainer MPs have no better choice than to back him if there is a contest

Hammond is thoroughly uninspiring and seems an austerity fan, but at least he has a better idea of the consequences of a disorderly Brexit and will try to go for a long extension transition period.

BigChocFrenzy · 05/10/2017 21:56

Exactly, LH The EU27 will almost certainly decide later this month that there has been insufficient progress to proceed to trade talks.

Then with DD skiving off most of the time, the negotiations on the 3 prerequisites won't progress much before Xmas

Or of course, they could proceed very quickly if say Olly Robbins takes over negotiating with some freedom given by May
and DD officially becomes Sec of State "for having photo taken with Barrier once a month"

nauticant · 05/10/2017 22:01

The one single consolation about Johnson becoming PM is that by the time he was finished he'd be wishing he had a legacy as good as Blair's.

I don't want to think about the downsides. I want to get some sleep tonight.

BigChocFrenzy · 05/10/2017 22:03

Germany will be preoccupied as usual until nearly Xmas negotiating a govt coalition
and the rest of the EU is preoccupied with Catalonia, Trump madness, refugees, ...

Brexit has really been handed over to Barnier & Juncker, with the instructions to sort it as best they can.
It's very important to the EU too, so I'm glad that Barnier seems very capable & knowledgeable.

prettybird · 05/10/2017 22:04

....I'd repeat again, one of the reasons for ABE is the English (and by that I include the BBC) media's obsession with England's "greatness" and bloody 1966 Hmm

There are times I will support the England cricket team - but I'll usually make a judgement about how the respective teams have been playing and which team I think "deserves" to win. And we supported Saracens because they're a great team against Clermont Ferrand in the European Cup Smile

But it's a bit like the Brexiteers' arrogant belief that the UK can pick up where the British Empire left off and that England the UK is the centre of the world. Scotland is a different country (sporting wise) to England. You don't expect the French to support Belgium just because they're neighbours. Why should the English assume that Scots "should" support them? Confused

It's that sort of attitude that has led to not just Scotland wanting England to lose but even other countries..... dh often bores regales friends with the story of a meal in a mountain restaurant in Courchevel during a snow storm, when Scotland were due to play France the following day in the 6 Nations. France and England were the only teams left who could win the Grand Slam. The posh English guy we'd got talking to wished us/Scotland luck the following day. We replied saying that we wanted France to win because we wanted France to win the Grand Slam. He complained, "What is it with you Jocks? Hmm", to which the Welshman we were with said, "It's not just the Scots" (in his deepest, Welshest voice Wink). There was then a chorus through the restaurant from Kiwis, Ozzies, Boks, Irish all saying the same thing - that they wanted the French to win.

I honestly think that if the media were more balanced in its coverage and not trying to insert bloody 1966 a tenuous reference to England into every commentary - even of games that have nothing to do with England - than there wouldn't be such an antipathy towards them succeeding.

It gets reflected in the coverage on terrestrial TV: the England games get bought by BBC/ITV but not the Scottish ones Hmm so dh had to find a Sky feed to see the game Wink

Motheroffourdragons · 05/10/2017 22:16

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

HesterThrale · 05/10/2017 22:23

The depressing financial/jobs stories now regularly appearing are bad enough, but it might be the growing frequency of this kind of news story that could make people finally start to turn against Brexit:

www.plymouthherald.co.uk/news/brexit-blamed-prestigious-boat-race-585010