Westminstenders: Beano or Bust

[RedToothBrush]

The last week has seemingly been eventful but not in the way that's on the surface.

It's what's going on behind the scenes and the little comments in less high profile speeches that's more telling.

On the one hand the Norths think the May speech is a laying down "an offer" that the EU can not accept, in order to set up a no deal situation.

On the other hand Telegraph Journalist Peter Foster thinks there things going on in Brussels with the EU set to compromise in someway and help May present a deal acceptable to the British. You have to wonder whether the "presentational" stuff is about a deal to essentially be in the EU but not in the EU. A Brexit Existing in A Name Only. Beano.

It's difficult to tell, and it will come down to brinkmanship over timing. For both a deal and for the Repel Bill as the two sides in parliament try to push things to their limit for their own ends.

In this vacuum of uncertainty CBI and their "arch enemies" the TUC have put out a joint statement saying no deal is nuts and will screw every one and the way EU cits have been treated has been dreadful.

As it stands it does look like May is serious about a deal and Davis is also acting in this way. Johnson and Hannan have launched their Institute for Free Trade (at the foreign office breaking ministerial code, but hell there's no consequences these days anyway cos May dare not let Johnson off the Brexit hook) in retaliation to try and retell the Brexit story as always being about free trade rather than racist. Unfortunately leavers seem to have bust that by admitting they are considerably more racist than Remainers by their own admission.

Then there's Trump and Bombardier. Just as Brexiteers are pushing for this closer relationship with the US in trade, despite May personally lobbying Trump he fucks her over slapping 220% tariff on Bombardier and putting the future of 4000 jobs at risk. This was inevitable as Trump fucks everyone for his own gain. The US won't ride to the aid of the British capitalists. They'll just eat them alive.

This week sees an important vote by the European Parliament on Brexit red lines. One of the votes states that the UK has to either stay in the customs union and internal market or NI has to have a special arrangement and stay in the customs union and the internal market in order to protect the EUs border integrity. Neither is compatible with what the Cons and the DUP have said they want.

It's also the Tory Party conference.May's big speech, in which she must throw red meat to the swivel eyed loons on right, is on Weds. There are of course, no debates at ConParty because, well, they can't behave like good little children without supervision. Instead the conference is to, erm... yeah we'll find out next week.

It's an old quote but this to me sums up so much about Trump's road to victory:

The press takes him literally, but not seriously; his supporters take him seriously, but not literally.

Rees-Mogg is going to be prime minister isn't he? No one else is daft enough to take it on.

Gove ending up as PM is my (hopefully unfounded) fear.

And I'd explain why I never want to stop feeing empathy for other human beings - even those I vehemently disagree with - except that Bigly already summed it up perfectly.

"Interesting that her bangle of portraits included a communist leader"

Isn't it just? I thought it a really intriguing bracelet statement piece.

"Not as fucking harsh as ATOS or Capita or Job Centre sanctions"

I am with LH on this.

My first instinct was to cringe and feel sorry fro May but then I remembered her callousness regarding the horrific xenophobia stirred up buy politicians and the media over the last 24 months and the Tory policies that have made this country an increasingly difficult place to live for an increasing number of people.

And I thought of the many families that are sick with worry about food, housing, healthcare, their safety, their rights, their ability to remain with their family and so I thought no this woman does not need to be pitted because at the end of the conference she will go back to her lovely home, know she has a secure pension and assets, doesn't need to worry at all about healthcare and any psychological trauma she experiences can be dealt with with with the best mental health support there is.

No, I do not feel sorry for her because she isn't vulnerable. However she is making other people vulnerable, especially women and children. She and her party are despicable.

We all experience difficulties but she has the resources to overcome them if not professionally then at least on a personal level. What happened to her is hardly terrible, she had a sore throat (how many of us schlepp ourselves to work when ill?) some props didn't work and somebody (prankster) tried to undermine her credibility. Nobody took her home, healthcare or pension away form her nobody hurt her.

Oops.

www.politico.eu/article/us-rounds-on-britain-over-food-quotas-as-post-brexit-trade-woes-deepen/

Even those things we think we have agreed with the EU are not quite so simple. And neither the USA nor the Commonwealth are not riding to the rescue - instead, they are turning the screw to mix metaphors

I wish I could say I was surprised

Anyone else remember the assurances that our food standards wouldn't be compromised?

Serious WTO issue

The EU is supporting the UK position, whereas the US - and other "friendly" countries like NZ and Canada - want to smash open the UK market.

So much for returning to the white Commonwealth, or the Anglosphere
Those countries are lining up with "enemies" like Argentina

This really illustrates again that countries don"t consider friends, just interests

The UK is leaving the world's biggest trading bloc and this is only a for-taste
DD, Fox & co, deliberately or through ignorance & incompetence, are delivering up the UK to be trussed & plucked like a chicken

It seems that the EU and the UK have a united approach on tariff quota splitting:

keep the same quota sum and have a pro rata split on each individual commodity code,
e.g. if the UK imports 20% of the chickens, then split the current EU quota 20:80 for UK:E27
and if the UK imports 35% of a super-widget, then split 35:65

However the USA, NZ and several other countries are demanding what is being called the
1+1=1 approach:

They want to keep their 100% quotas for the EU market
AND
the add for the UK market the same 100% of the current EU total - not the UK total.

So, these countries want to double their export quotas to the EU and UK combined.

In particular, tking the opportunityto hugely increase experts to the UK,
which would decimate UK producers in farming / agriculture and widgets.

Not such a big difference for the E27 and I expect they'll either negotiate their part down to the pro rata of 80% etc
⁃ they are a much bigger market, bigger clout and they won't suddenly lose all their trade deals post-Brexit.

Hopefully there will be a compromise, so that RoW have slightly higher quotas, to compensate for the reduced export flexibility of having 2 quotas for E27 and UK, instead on one combined.

The UK is in trouble though - it can't afford to negotiate much longer and risk being without WTO quotas and schedules post-Brexit.
Or we need a damn long "transition" period to sort all this out.

The compromise for the UK might be to drop food standard regs, e.g. against chlorinated chicken, hormone-dosed beef.

However, that would bugger up UK exports to the E27, because they demand common standards, so that imported crap doesn't accidentally, or by fraud, get into the food chain.

Maybe the U.S turning on us is a good thing for us. Because the government can't claim its the nasty EU bullying us, and that's why brexit is a disaster, if it is 3rd countries cocking up the deals we already have. The U.S, particularly under Trump, could be a far better scapegoat for claiming the whole brexit thing was an impossibility and allowing us to stay in the E.U. We didn't lose face, the mad man in America forced our hand. The loathsome brexiteers can still turn their anger towards foreigners - but ones further away than Europe. They'll be happy stewing in their hatred, we'll be happy stewing in the E.U

As for May, being forced out would now be the best thing for her (therefore I would quite like her to stay). Anyone who comes next will be at least 12 X worse so; squashed between Cameron's almighty cock up and the horrific reign of her successor, her short tenure of incompetence and misery might well just get forgotten in the mists of time

she is making other people vulnerable, especially women and children

The real Theresa May: How the PM tried to introduce immigration checks in schools

Frances Travena, of the Coram Children's Legal Centre, tells of a woman who had lived in the country legally for nine years before incorrect legal advice led to her becoming undocumented. Her child later became ill and needed ongoing treatment. Because of her immigration status she had to pay for it - something she couldn't afford to do. She was then told by the hospital that they would no longer be able provide the child with the care they needed. Only life-saving treatment would be available

The hostile environment is damaging to children," Travena says. "The majority of families have no recourse to public funds, and live in constant financial precarity. Even where families are able to apply for benefits, many do not because they are afraid that accessing financial support will impact on their right to remain. This leaves children hungry and at risk of homelessness

www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2017/10/05/the-real-theresa-may-how-the-pm-tried-to-introduce-immigrati

Seems a bit rum that we're stuck with May and crew as tories are too terrified to get rid of her. Just like they're too terrified to exit brexit. Bullies don't usually have much courage.

Good bio feature on May:

https://www.lrb.co.uk/v39/n06/david-runciman/do-your-homework

"She was marked down as someone suited for middle-ranking jobs that required tenacity rather than flair."

i.e. obstinate and unimaginative

@nandorvila
I wrote this in the @washingtonpost on how Spain's dumb right wing government pushed Catalunya toward independence
www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2017/10/05/how-the-spanish-government-is-pushing-catalans-to-support-independence/?utm_term=.30ceaf80c26f

Glaswegian friend of the family has re iterated that it was fury at donkeys years of right wing tory policy from England, that pushed her from apoliticality to SNP.

"The real Theresa May: How the PM tried to introduce immigration checks in schools"
woman that is exactly the sort of thing I was thinking about. I received ds's slip from school stating that the Department of Education requires this information about country of birth and nationality from schools. Nothing else on the form just this additional information. I was disgusted. Thankfully my dc are British but if we had moved here after there were born we would feel quite vulnerable.

I really don't understand the sympathy for someone who is callous and cold. I mean she had a cold and was pranked, she is probably resilient enough to waistband this sort of thing. And she has a choice, she can resign, write a book etc. etc. Families living in poverty and uncertainty don't have that luxury.

Withstand

Remember May is herself a bully - viz her illegal treatment of immigrants and students at the Home Office and her continued objective of creating a toxic unwelcoming environment for immigrants

However, as is often the case with bullies, it is a reflection of her lack of confidence. It's easier to attack the poor and vulnerable in society than to stand up to the powerful vested interests for what's right.

BDI (German CBI) - Prepare now for over-the-cliff Brexit

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/05/reuters-america-update-1-prepare-now-for-over-the-cliff-brexit-germany-industry-says.html

German firms with a presence in Britain should make provisions now for a "very hard Brexit",
... because the government in London does not know what it wants.
....
BDI Managing Director Joachim Lang:
"The British government is lacking a clear concept despite talking a lot. "

"German companies with a presence in Britain and Northern Ireland must now make provisions for the serious case of a very hard exit.
Anything else would be naive."
...
The industry group confirmed that it had set up a task force,
including major companies, to prepare for a disruptive British departure from the EU.
..... Airbus, Siemens and Deutsche Bank were taking part.
< I wish the CBI had organised such a task force, but they don't want to offend the govt;
at most individual companies are quietly planning.
Some just have their heads in the sand and may go bottoms up later>

Lang:
"The aim of the task force is to identify potential and acute risks arising from Britain's departure and to present constructive proposals for solutions,"
....
The task force, established in early summer, is accelerating its work in regular meetings in Berlin
....
It is expected to present conclusions in December
and this could also help shape the position of the next coalition government.
....
German companies employ roughly 400,000 people in the UK,
....
Dampening hopes among some Brexiteers that London could succeed in driving a wedge between governments and companies in other European countries,
< but Brexiters, including those in givt, never listen to such warnings >

Lang said German industry fully backed the EU's negotiation strategy.
"To make it clear:
Yes, German industry wants to keep a very close relationship with Britain.
But have no doubt:

We prioritise the further development of the EU,

Brexit: UK's WTO status 'could be blocked over territorial disputes'
Countries with which the UK has territorial disputes – such as Argentina and Spain – could use the opportunity to force compromise on other issues, the Institute of Export has warned

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/britain-wto-schedule-argentina-spain-brexit-latest-a7468766.html

“Time is ticking now and as people get closer to the two-year cut-off,
the deals will be less and less in our favour and more and more in favour of the people we’re dealing with.

“They know we want to get things sorted out, they know our timescale.
That’s the trouble.
We are not in a blind negotiating position, or in an even-handed one.
We will have to compromise.

“This idea that any trade deal works with us being in the dominant position went out the window when we stopped using the Army as a sales force for the East India Company."

The One In Which The Pessimists Have Been Too Optimist.

More bad news in the FT:

www.ft.com/content/768843e8-a839-11e7-93c5-648314d2c72c
‘Two-thirds’ of Hammond’s £26bn Budget war chest faces wipeout
Officials fear public finances ‘bloodbath’ as OBR prepares to downgrade UK growth

Philip Hammond is facing what officials describe as “a bloodbath” in the public finances in his Budget next month as weak economic forecasts derail the government’s plans.

As much as two-thirds of the £26bn of headroom in the public finances that the chancellor created last year as a buffer for the economy through the Brexit period is likely to be wiped out after the government’s fiscal watchdog concludes its forecasts for growth have been too optimistic.

The Office for Budget Responsibility will publish on Tuesday a new analysis suggesting it has persistently over-estimated Britain’s productivity over the past seven years and will give a broad hint that it will rectify the situation with a more pessimistic Budget forecast.

Slower growth in the forecast will limit deficit reduction and cut the size of the war chest that Mr Hammond put aside to smooth the Brexit transition. This leaves him in an awkward position politically, because he is under increasing pressure to end the austerity cap on public pay, lower the burden of debt on students and build houses.

The situation will dismay the Treasury and surprise economists, who have been encouraged by a steady improvement in Britain’s monthly public finances figures, even as economic growth has slowed this year. In August, the UK posted its lowest budget deficit since before the financial crisis, borrowing a net £5.7bn, well below the consensus estimate of £7.1bn.

Laura Kuenssberg‏*@bbclaurak*

1. Are lots of Tory MPs desperate about May? Yes. Do those who want her out now have enough numbers yet? Not so far. So is she safe? No.
2. Doesnt seem urgency this afternoon. Do plots sometimes take time? Yes. But do plots sometimes run out of steam? Yes too.
3. It took a month after the IDS quiet man speech for him to go. Plotters dream scenario is that May concludes its enough over the weekend
4. Number 10 belief/hope is that conference has given usual suspects another chance to have a crack but it will quieten next week
5. Last, no one knows!

FWIW, if May hasn't had all the drama then we would all be seething over the hypocrisy in her speech - particularly over the immigration and open stuff - and would have been throwing things at the telly.

www.independent.co.uk/voices/theresa-may-credibility-boris-johnson-brexit-speech-conservative-party-conference-prime-minister-a7984141.html

Theresa May can restore some of her credibility by putting Boris Johnson in charge of Brexit
Are they on glue??

Are they on glue??

No, there just completely stuck in it. They easy way out would be to hand the whole thing to a hardline Brexiteer which would cause unknown damage to the economy (ie it could be vast). The only alternative is to plod on as they are but eventually they're going just to grind to a halt.

They don't know what to do. They're playing for time. They're going to run out of it.

But he also possesses a sense of history, the capacity for empathy, and a sensitivity towards language

To use a good Scottish expression, the author of that Independent article is talking a load of pish