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Brexit

Westminstenders: Beano or Bust

978 replies

RedToothBrush · 29/09/2017 21:33

The last week has seemingly been eventful but not in the way that's on the surface.

It's what's going on behind the scenes and the little comments in less high profile speeches that's more telling.

On the one hand the Norths think the May speech is a laying down "an offer" that the EU can not accept, in order to set up a no deal situation.

On the other hand Telegraph Journalist Peter Foster thinks there things going on in Brussels with the EU set to compromise in someway and help May present a deal acceptable to the British. You have to wonder whether the "presentational" stuff is about a deal to essentially be in the EU but not in the EU. A Brexit Existing in A Name Only. Beano.

It's difficult to tell, and it will come down to brinkmanship over timing. For both a deal and for the Repel Bill as the two sides in parliament try to push things to their limit for their own ends.

In this vacuum of uncertainty CBI and their "arch enemies" the TUC have put out a joint statement saying no deal is nuts and will screw every one and the way EU cits have been treated has been dreadful.

As it stands it does look like May is serious about a deal and Davis is also acting in this way. Johnson and Hannan have launched their Institute for Free Trade (at the foreign office breaking ministerial code, but hell there's no consequences these days anyway cos May dare not let Johnson off the Brexit hook) in retaliation to try and retell the Brexit story as always being about free trade rather than racist. Unfortunately leavers seem to have bust that by admitting they are considerably more racist than Remainers by their own admission.

Then there's Trump and Bombardier. Just as Brexiteers are pushing for this closer relationship with the US in trade, despite May personally lobbying Trump he fucks her over slapping 220% tariff on Bombardier and putting the future of 4000 jobs at risk. This was inevitable as Trump fucks everyone for his own gain. The US won't ride to the aid of the British capitalists. They'll just eat them alive.

This week sees an important vote by the European Parliament on Brexit red lines. One of the votes states that the UK has to either stay in the customs union and internal market or NI has to have a special arrangement and stay in the customs union and the internal market in order to protect the EUs border integrity. Neither is compatible with what the Cons and the DUP have said they want.

It's also the Tory Party conference.May's big speech, in which she must throw red meat to the swivel eyed loons on right, is on Weds. There are of course, no debates at ConParty because, well, they can't behave like good little children without supervision. Instead the conference is to, erm... yeah we'll find out next week.

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PattyPenguin · 02/10/2017 18:35

Well, Gove is expecting businesses to do all they need to in preparation for the sunlit uplands.

Whereas quite a lot will decide that what they need to do is move out of the UK, if they can (lucky sods), or shut up shop.

RedToothBrush · 02/10/2017 18:40

Isabel Oakeshott‏*@IsabelOakeshott*
The government IS preparing for WTO rules after Brexit, confirms former Brexit minister David Jones + calls on govt to reveal those plans

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RedToothBrush · 02/10/2017 18:49

George Eaton‏*@georgeeaton*

Tory MP Dominic Grieve on Brexit: "Can you have a revolution without victims?" Answer: No.

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RedToothBrush · 02/10/2017 18:58

Peston:

There is a fairly profound misunderstanding about what the PM meant when in Florence she talked about a "transition" period of "around two years" after we leave the EU on March 29 2019.
Alright I will own up. What I am saying is I did not properly understand what she meant.
I thought transition would include continued negotiation of the minutiae of our future trading relationship with the EU. But it turns out that is not right.
Her plan, which she nodded towards last night at the 1922 committee's traditional conference party, is that transition just means a period for businesses and citizens to make their technical and admin preparations for the post-Brexit world.
The nature of that post-Brexit world, the shape of our access to the EU's single market, would already have been negotiated by our Brexit negotiator Davis and theirs Barnier, all being well.
Which means that the big questions, what kind of regulatory alignment we would have with the EU, and which supranational body would arbitrate when either the UK or EU wants to change those regulations, would already have been decided.
And that brings the implication, which will partly reassure most businesses but will upset many Brexiteers, that we would start with a systemic deal that accepts all EU regulations, rather than negotiating waivers for sectors less dependent on the EU market.
So why rush to negotiate everything about Brexit that matters by the autumn of next year - which is the deadline if any deal is to be ratified by the formal Brexit day in March 2019?
Well it is largely because May has just about persuaded her Brexiteering colleagues to pay circa £10bn a year for two years to the EU budget during transition, as an investment in avoiding a profound business shock or so-called economic cliff-edge.
As you may have noticed, Boris Johnson for one is NOT happy about this.
But the Brexiteers don't want to pay a penny more. And they legitimately fear that if the negotiations were to continue after March 2019, the EU would have an incentive to string them out as long as possible, so that we would continue to pay that £10bn a year subscription ad infinitum.
Here is the punchline of course. Given that the earliest those trade negotiations now look as though they can start is December, there is a significant probability they will flop and we will exit with no deal. Apart from anything else it is not remotely clear that Barnier and the EU will accept an arbitrator of regulatory divergence that is not the European Court of Justice (which would be impossible for May to accept).
So as I have been shouting for months, we all need to think much more seriously about what a no-deal Brexit would actually mean.
It would not have to be catastrophic for us. But it would be complicated. And I will share some thoughts on this explosive issue in coming days.

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Eeeeeowwwfftz · 02/10/2017 18:58

It's not as if these costs go away (in fact, if you go to a private scheme, costs go up as you need to include the administrative costs). Confused

Also, should you have the temerity to get ill, look forward to your premium going up, or being denied further cover.

woman11017 · 02/10/2017 19:17

there is a significant probability they will flop and we will exit with no deal
It's what North senior spotted. Not good. In fact, terrifying. Why would you do this to a people?

RedToothBrush · 02/10/2017 19:22

Anand Menon‏*@anandMenon1*

Great question by @georgeeaton to @andrealeadsom If transition involves FoM, cash payments and ECJ, can you stay in Cabinet?

George Eaton‏**@georgeeaton**

I asked Andrea Leadsom if she could stay in cabinet given opposition to transition terms: "I'll be in cabinet as long as the PM wants me."
Leadsom added: "And the same goes for Boris."
Striking that Leadsom didn't deny she's at odds on Brexit transition terms.

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woman11017 · 02/10/2017 19:23

Watching poor Monarch workers in tears, are the collateral Grieve so callously calls victims.

frumpety · 02/10/2017 19:43

woman11017 re the Jeremy Hunt lanyard , I might be wrong but I think Tate and Lyle do rather well out of the CAP

farmsubsidy.openspending.org/GB/browse/

No reason at all for them to be at a political conference , oh no Hmm

woman11017 · 02/10/2017 19:51

Since 1999 TATE & LYLE EUROPE (031583) has received €594,270,084 in payments from the European Union thanks Frumpety Grin

frumpety · 02/10/2017 19:58

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/01/nhs-accused-culling-sick-free-transport-dialysis-stopped/

So if you can't afford to get to the dialysis unit 3 times a week , you will die in 2 weeks Hmm

woman11017 · 02/10/2017 20:02

Epic troll of Conservative Conference by @PortOfDover
www.kentlive.news/news/kent-news/port-dover-just-trolled-tory-561681
Another Grin worth watching the short film pointing out how the port works now, and how it can't after 'brexit'.

frumpety · 02/10/2017 20:06

Ooops posted too soon , Dyson clearly thinks Brexit is a marvellous idea and laden with opportunity , EU baaad and all that , but still quite happy to receive money from them .

RedToothBrush · 02/10/2017 20:23

The Tory Party That Just KEEEEPPPPPPSSS Giving.

www.buzzfeed.com/markdistefano/amber-is-alert?utm_term=.teq1YbkLmE#.mfpYkprOl3
Amber Rudd Says She Doesn't Need To "Understand How Encryption Works" To Know It Needs Changing
The home secretary has been criticised by tech experts for trying to launch a crackdown on end-to-end encryption messaging apps like WhatsApp and iMessage.

Okkkkkayyyyy.

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BiglyBadgers · 02/10/2017 20:26

I wonder if he is expecting the Government to continue to pay those subsidies after brexit Hmm

frumpety · 02/10/2017 20:31

Oh no Bigly he has much larger profits to be had in emerging economies , one of which he said was Syria , once all the hoohah has died down Shock

LewisThere · 02/10/2017 20:32

blogs.ec.europa.eu/ECintheUK/euromyths-a-z-index/

Came across this blog the EU listing all the times when 'fals' news about the EU appeared in the British press.
From bent bananas, to noisy toys or the EU banning the UK from using the word yogurt! Grin

Cailleach1 · 02/10/2017 20:34

woman there is a significant probability they will flop and we will exit with no deal

It's what North senior spotted. Not good. In fact, terrifying. Why would you do this to a people?

Isn't that the million dollar question? After the 'Ohs' and 'Ahs' and the 'for god's sake, these people are unbelieveable'. That 'why would you do this to a people?' is the most incomprehensible. It is like Dr Who with the Daleks, cybermen and 'the master' at large. Except this is real.

frumpety · 02/10/2017 20:36

Gah ! at terrible grammar , trying to do this and play top trumps with smallest Frump Grin

Holliewantstobehot · 02/10/2017 20:52

That news about the dialysis transport has really upset me. My dad had his dialysis at Treliske. We never used the transport as we don't live too far away. The trouble is Treliske is the main hospital for a large swathe of Cornwall and public transport is extremely patchy. But then its unsurprising given how bad the finances are.

woman11017 · 02/10/2017 21:00

@britainelects

On the way the government is handling the Brexit negotiations
Approve: 36% (-4)
Disapprove: 64% (+4)

GaspodeWonderCat · 02/10/2017 21:05

Having just caught up:
Too late! too late!” will be the cry—
“Jesus of Nazareth has passed by.”
It is from a hymn answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20061021111306AA7HUct
but I did enjoy the bit about the woman waving her wooden leg during my google searches. A soothing search for interesting stuff post Catalonia/US shooting/BREXIT/Tory conference .....

woman11017 · 02/10/2017 21:12

Wow! GaspodeWonderCat Grin

Peregrina · 02/10/2017 21:31

Wow indeed. I am quite sure we sung something to that tune in Sunday school, many years ago, but I certainly don't remember any words.There was something called the Moody-Sankey revival in the latter part of the 19th century, full of jolly hymns like that.