Westministers: May Shares the Cake

[RedToothBrush]

May's Speech Abbreviated:

We still have nfi how we are going to do this. EU this is your fault. You sort it out. We are too lazy, workshy and fighting like high school children to work it out ourselves. Be our whipping boy.

I support democracy as long as I get to do whatever I like
I support human rights as long as I can ignore them when I like.
I support the rule of law except when it doesn't suit my agenda.

Waffle waffle.

"Creative", "Dynamic" PR for my Premiership.

Waffle waffle

We really need policing cooperation, PLEASE keep it with us. I know I threatened to withdraw this, but I'm sorry, I was wrong and a bit of a dick about this.

Gets to the point FINALLY.

"2 year transition period"

(With another time bomb lock which is still too short for IT departments. Nothing to do with the next general election, honest).

RULE BRITANNIA!

Polite Applause.

I'm finding that dh is getting more and more irritated when I raise Brexit custerfucks issues it's ok if he raises them though

Maybe I need to remind myself rather than getting pissed off at him for belittling me that he is maybe taking a Martian approach (ie assuming that he needs to offer solutions) rather than accepting my Venusian approach (ie I just want to offload and am not expecting him to come up with solutions) for those of you who've read and believe in "Men are from Mars, Women are from Venus"

Yes I think I can explain. It had me confused for a while too, so I hope this is right.

It means that May's idea of a 2 year session might have backfired. It was put in to protect her from a revolt on the Queen's Speech vote.

HOWEVER, the Repel Bill is facing that much hostility its now problematic. May should have seen this coming.

It was flipping obvious from the day of the election result that the Repel Bill would be in trouble in the Lords because of the lack of majority and the Lords able to argue that they didn't have to comply with the Salisbury convention and might seek to block its passage. I think it was commented on by multiple people that day. They, by law, under the 1911 and 1949 Parliamentary Act can be used to force it through. Of course the Article 50 deadline makes that more complex as the clock is ticking on this.

May however still seems to have thought that she could push it, at least through the Commons. What is also noteable here is that Lord Bridges (I think that's his name) who was at the Brexit department and the one responsible for getting the Repel Bill through parliament quit. One of the reasons was that he thought that Brexit was not doable in its current form because the Repel Bill was not passable through parliament. He regarded it difficult before the election and impossible after the election.

Anyway, the Commons has proved to be rather more hostile to the Repel Bill in its current form that May anticipated, as a lot more Tory Rebels are saying "no fucking chance" without amendments. How she thought this was a surprising thing I have no idea.

Now, as I and others expected the Lords are flexing their muscles and going "no fucking chance". The report just shows the degree to which the Lords is hostile to the Bill.

Here's the thing. If the Commons and the Lords say "no thank you", because they don't like the Bill, it doesn't pass. It can't be reintroduced within the same parliamentary session. Since this parliamentary session is two years long, and not the normal one year, May has robbed herself of the chance to reintroduce an alternative Bill because the Parliamentary Acts of 1911 and 1949 which would have allowed her to force it through can not be used.

This means there are going to be A LOT of amendments, because in order to Brexit, we HAVE to have this passed otherwise our laws fall apart as we are no longer part of the ECJ but the EEC Bill still exists and EU law has not been passed into UK law. Basically our law system is thrown into complete chaos.

We end up in a situation where we simply can not exit, as its not possible. (Of course, we have no choice but to exit as we've triggered art50. It leaves us in a situation where we end up BEGGING to stay in the EU under pretty much any terms they decide). The cliff edge exit, isn't a realistic thing in this scenario, as even the cliff edge relies on us still having some law - we are talking not just marital law type situation but a constitutional crisis of epic proportions as we can't have martial law without having law. Its basically Anarchy In The UK. Some Hard Brexiteers might still like this and might push things, but most of them will run away from this prospect. Its that bad.

Instead you might see brinkmanship over the deadline on this. It could well run to the wire as the Commons and Lords seek to get as many concessions from the government to it as possible. And the government might stall and run as close to the deadline as possible to stop concessions from being made.

May only has one shot at getting this essential bill through. She CAN NOT cock it up. Failure is not an option. Otherwise we might be looking at being part of Schengen and the Euro!

In essence it gives the Lords 'the whip hand' because the Lords get to dictate the terms they will allow the bill to pass with.

So not only is May at the mercy of the EU parliament, the European Council and negotiations she also has to negotiation with her own party in the Commons and with the Lords which currently, with the Labour and LDs working together, has an opposition majority.

This isn't new, but I hadn't realised the implications of the two year session to this, and how it really means that the 1911 and 1949 Acts can not have effect.

The more objections the Lords have to the Bill the more difficult it will be for May to pass the bill, and the more amendments will be needed.

I'm not sure May can't even put in place new anti-Lords measures easily because it falls into the same parliamentary session.

That two year parliamentary session move isn't looking quite so smart, all things considered.

@jameschappers
We cannot exit because we would have a non-functioning statute book

The other way you could read this is, if you were trying to sabotage brexit, one of the first things you'd have done after the election is you'd put in a parliamentary term of two years meaning the Lords had all the power to scupper a hard line approach.

Its that staggering incompetence versus remain genius argument.

And May is not known for her stunning intellect.

We cannot exit because we would have a non-functioning statute book

The clearer way of explaining this, is the law falls over and collapses in on itself as no one knows what the law is anymore.

Its that staggering incompetence versus remain genius argument well...

Interesting discussion on Channel 4 news now, just amongst brexiters. In Wakefield.

What's coming out is the £350m lie.

Daniel Hannan is having trouble.

www.buzzfeed.com/jasonleopold/us-intelligence-unit-was-blocked-from-tracking-terrorists?utm_term=.nqLm36kJV9#.tyQKvX3nDG
In Midst Of Terror Attack, US Intel Unit Was Blocked From Tracking The Terrorists
When knife-wielding terrorists attacked civilians on London Bridge, a key US intelligence unit raced to help — but found they were shut out of critical classified computer networks. The problem has hampered several antiterrorist efforts and prevented the unit from fully complying with the Senate investigation into Donald Trump and Russia.

So security cooperation between the UK (and EU) and US is being hampered by the US treasury department.

Another thing May will be aware of, and the extent to which we can not look to the US for our security as we have in the past.

www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/news/89382/excl-tory-rising-star-james-cleverly-i-want
EXCL Tory rising star James Cleverly: I want to be Prime Minister

Interesting.

Thanks for spelling it out, Hashi and Red . I love it when the Law of Unintended Consequences bites Brexit someone on the bum. (I'm not buying the Remain genius line for a moment.)

Stalking horse?

Isn't Cleverly a mate of Bojo?

Its that staggering incompetence versus remain genius argument well

But maybe Nick Timothy was more Machiavellian than we give him credit for?

I love it when the Law of Unintended Consequences bites Brexit someone on the bum.

Oh dear, poor Theresa . Still, I'm sure it's not her fault in any way.

Other things that weren't her fault and totally not under her control :

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-conservatives-snap-election-not-prepared-tory-party-lose-seats-labour-jeremy-corbyn-a7971886.html

Theresa May says Conservatives were 'not prepared' for snap election she called

Theresa May has admitted the Conservatives were not fully prepared for June’s snap general election – despite the fact it was her decision to call it.

The Prime Minister said one reason for the Conservatives performing much worse than expected in the poll was that she had “not been able to prepare people for it”. This resulted in an overly-centralised campaign that took power away from local activists, she said.

Maybe a stalking horse this time round. He has had enough foresight and balls to appear on The Last Leg though. This marks him out to be concerned about the youth vote and prepared and able to engage. He didn't do too bad on the show which is generally is a hotbed of liberalism. He's black with a British mother and a father from Sierra Leone (this also rules him out from being able to get a lot of ex-kipper votes but he might draw some ethnic minorities back to the Conservatives)

More likely he'll stand at the next leadership contest to make a name for himself - and to make a point about the Conservative Party as a whole.

Who was the last ethnic minority to stand for the Labour leadership?

Diane Abbott in 2010.

Cleverly worked with Johnson when Johnson was London Mayor. He was the Mayor of London's Youth Ambassador. He is a supporter of Johnson, or at least he has been vocally supportive of him in the past (but so was Gove).

He's supposed to be 'able'. He's a Leaver. Other interesting things is he is atheist and a TA officer. Again another youth related thing.

Perhaps not surprising to see him pushing himself forward.

Oh, regarding the Brexit discussion on C4, it turns out at least one of the panel is an old hand at media appearances where angry right-wing xenophobic blokes are required.

twitter.com/Channel4News/status/913469415177498624

last ethnic minority to stand and win Ed Milliband.

maybe Nick Timothy was more Machiavellian than we give him credit for

Can't get past paywall but apparently 'citizens of nowhere' is not racist or anti semitic.
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/27/first-time-30-years-tories-must-now-defend-capitalism-enemies/

May's moan that she wasn't ready to call the election does beg the question, who told her to do it. again.

i remember reading about the Lords being able to block the Repeal Bill in a couple of articles, soon after May announced the 2 year Parliament.
Both writers then thought the Lords wouldn't dare, for fear of causing public fury, a constitutional crisis and possible slashing of HoL powers after the next GE.

However, ever since then, I've been crossing my fingers and hoping this would be a roadblock to hard Brexit < dances a jig ! >

I've also been wondering if someone behind the scenes has been brilliantly manipulating May by advising her to make this string of decisions:

• Appoint 3 dunces who are too hopeless to manage Brexit
• Call a GE without preparation and have a presidential campaign featuring the Submarine
• Fix a 2-year parliament ...

A senior civil service cabal / Cabinet Secretary / her Private Secretary / ..../ the 1922 Committee ...?

Sir Humphrey???????

www.channel4.com/programmes/channel-4-news/on-demand/65833-271

Even if there are a few of the usual suspects on this brexiters debate, it's still interesting, as real people talking about it in real time on the media is getting rarer. No consensus. Some sexism. But some fascinating insights into the desperation with which so many voted for leave.

Some genuine and sympathetic contributors and no challenging of the still existent belief that £350m a week is going to be poured into hospitals and care homes. This is the biggest fact/lie that needs to be outed.

More good news ?
Looks suspiciously like May is transferring the negotiations lead from Davies to her own office

(paywall) Around 20 UK civil servants to leave Brexit department (& going to May's Office)

https://www.ft.com/content/00ea74fa-a463-11e7-b797-b61809486fe2

Up to 20 top civil servants in the Department for Exiting the EU are set to join Britain’s leading Brexit official in the Cabinet Office,
raising fresh questions about the influence of Brexit secretary David Davis

The UK government announced last week that Oliver Robbins, the top official at Dexeu, was moving to a new unit directly under the supervision of Theresa May,
in a move aimed at tightening the prime minister’s grip on the Brexit talks.

Dexeu has now confirmed that Mr Robbins will lead a new unit at the Cabinet Office, which will include four senior civil servants.

The department will not reveal which civil servants are moving with Mr Robbins, but they are thought to number as many as 20.

Two people briefed on the moves said they would include Catherine Webb, currently director of market access and budget at Dexeu
— a role that includes the critical portfolio focused on Britain’s future access to Europe’s single market.

The shift of officials from Dexeu to the Cabinet Office, which was first reported by Politico,
will raise fresh concerns about the emergence of rival power structures in Whitehall.

There have also been reports that Mr Robbins and Mr Davis have previously clashed over the Brexit negotiating process.

“It is clear that Olly will want to build his own power base,”
said one former Whitehall mandarin.
“But all these moves will also raise questions about what the purpose and role of Dexeu truly is.”

Jill Rutter, a programme director at the Institute for Government think-tank, said:

“These moves do seem to add another layer of complexity to the way Brexit is managed across Whitehall.

It is also a strange message to be sending to Europe about the role of David Davis.” < yup >

When Mrs May became prime minister in July 2016, she approved the creation of Dexeu,
a 500-person department handed the job of co-ordinating Whitehall’s approach to Brexit and preparing for leaving the EU.

However, former mandarins have repeatedly warned that the creation of Dexeu has risked creating confusion in Whitehall
and that Mrs May would have been wiser to control Brexit policy from her own fiefdom in the Cabinet Office.
< finally, she listened >

In its 14 months of operation,
Dexeu has recruited heavily from other Whitehall departments, taking staff on secondment.

But a string of high-profile departures from Dexeu in recent months has already raised questions about disarray at the ministry.

Lord Bridges, a respected minister in the department, unexpectedly resigned in June of this year.

James Chapman, a former Daily Mail journalist, also quit as Mr Davis’s chief of staff in June.

Last week, Antony Phillipson, a Foreign Office star who was Dexeu’s director of trade and partnerships,
announced he was leaving to be UK consul general in New York.

According to Freedom of Information data received by Bloomberg this week,
124 employees have already left the department since its creation while 482 remain.

Dexeu said on Thursday that a “small team” is being established at the Cabinet Office,
including some existing staff from Dexeu,
to support the work of Mr Robbins after his appointment.

woman but, but, but ... all the Leave posters here keep saying that everyone knew the 350 million promise was rubbish < wide-eyed in >