Westministers: May Shares the Cake

[RedToothBrush]

May's Speech Abbreviated:

We still have nfi how we are going to do this. EU this is your fault. You sort it out. We are too lazy, workshy and fighting like high school children to work it out ourselves. Be our whipping boy.

I support democracy as long as I get to do whatever I like
I support human rights as long as I can ignore them when I like.
I support the rule of law except when it doesn't suit my agenda.

Waffle waffle.

"Creative", "Dynamic" PR for my Premiership.

Waffle waffle

We really need policing cooperation, PLEASE keep it with us. I know I threatened to withdraw this, but I'm sorry, I was wrong and a bit of a dick about this.

Gets to the point FINALLY.

"2 year transition period"

(With another time bomb lock which is still too short for IT departments. Nothing to do with the next general election, honest).

RULE BRITANNIA!

Polite Applause.

So how are we going to be able to prove to a bank that indeed, we are staying legally in the UK???

That's why they call it a "hostile environment".

I'm beginning to really hate the kid-gloves approach to the 'left behind'. My suspicion is that (in the UK at least) the 'left-behind' are not the economically 'left behind' but rather those 'socially left behind of their own free-will because they hate the direction of travel of a tolerant, more liberal society'.

In fact, I am sure of this. They keep voting for right-wing social solutions, rather than economic solutions. I think we need to start naming them for what they are, rather than feeling guilty about a notional correlation between right-wing social attitudes and economic exploitation. My feeling is that the overlap is not so great. And it does a disservice to the wishes of many people for a continuation of social progressiveness.

LurkingHusband I'm a member of the Labour Party but I am just torn to shreds over their approach to Brexit. Brexit is the most important thing facing the UK. I hate the direction of travel of Labour on Brexit.

In our area, it really is a Conservative/Labour choice ... but even so, I'm torn.

I'm not worried about AfD. The closer these parties get to power, the more their utter incompetence and unfitness is revealed. I think AfD's success will be shorter lived than that of UKIP, because it does not have a defining "project" that can attract supporters from outside the narrow ranks of avowed racists.

Mistigirl Those thoughts have crossed my mind, too. I do wonder if we had FPTP in the UK, actual inclusion in Parliament might have undone the bastards a lot faster. And ironically, stopped Brexit.

Who knows?

Cat, I agree, the left behind stuff is bollocks. You only have to look at the demographics of brexit (whiter, older and more Conservative than the general population) to know that brexit was largely about the relatively privileged wanting to hang onto their privilege in the face of an imagined assault from foreigners. Basically the same story as Trump.

I was going to post something similar about AfD Misti. I note from the Guardian's reports about them that their appeal is to the same demographic, in this case the people of the old E Germany who feel disenfranchised, as the appeal of UKIP in the north of England.

Thankfully UKIP has begun to collapse in part because of the utter incompetence of its representatives. A bad part of the collapse is that the Tories have espoused their policies.

I'm not worried about AfD.
It will be interesting to see how they cope with actual political office.
None of these types seem very good at it in France, America or here.

Interesting comparisons in Afd vote and Brexit vote:
A perceived vote against the current government; and racist vote tapped for power; most of the votes were from the poor east, a bit like the poorer leave areas.

^In short, the relationship between AfD and its voters is weak, and is mostly defined by opposition to other parties
AfD got more votes from past non-voters (1.2 million) than from the CDU/CSU (1 million) or SPD (500,000). In many ways this is an anti-Merkel vote, reflecting opposition to her controversial Willkommenspolitik towards refugees, which not only pushed some voters of mainstream parties to switch but also mobilised previous non-voters. The same poll also shows, for example, that 89% of AfD voters thought that Merkel’s immigration policies ignored the “concerns of the people” (ie German citizens); 85% want stronger national borders; and 82% think that 12 years of Merkel is enough. In other words, AfD has clearly profited from the fact that immigration was the number one issue in these elections^.

Does this shocking result mean that AfD is going to be the third force in German politics in the future? There are many reasons to doubt this. First of all, the poll showed that a stunning 60% of AfD voters voted “against all other parties” and only 34% voted out of conviction for AfD. This is in sharp contrast to voters of all other parties. More than 70% said that it would be good if you could vote for CSU outside Bavaria – CSU is a much more conservative and rightwing party than Merkel’s CDU, but only contests election in the southern state – while 86% think that the party does not distance itself enough from “extreme right positions”.

In short, the relationship between AfD and its voters is weak, and is mostly defined by opposition to other parties rather than by support for AfD itself. And beyond its own voters, AfD still seems highly controversial. Only 12% of all Germans were “satisfied with the political work” of Alice Weidel, the co-leader of AfD, with Alexander Gauland. This was by far the lowest of all party leaders; even significantly lower than the 44% for the highly controversial Sahra Wagenknecht, deputy chairwoman of the radical left Die Linke

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/24/germany-elections-afd-europe-immigration-merkel-radical-right

Wrt Labour, I'm not sure as the opposition they need a defined policy on Brexit. But it's an extremely poor show that they're not even discussing it at their conference when it affects everything.

I'm still chuckling away at the EDL non march. I've got visions of a guy keyboard warrioring about the march, someone in his close circle asking if he's going and replying nah mate, I don't want people knowing I'm a massive racist.

On the Afd, I can't see much difference between them and the current Tories/dup. I wish the same outrage was applied at home too.

Silent lurker and very occasional poster here. First of all many thanks to Red for these great threads and all regular contributors for your many intelligent and informative posts. The Westminstenders threads are my go-to place for all things Brexit related.

I’m German, voted FDP and have also been a party member for the last ten years. I would just like to say that if I had a vote in a UK election, hell would freeze over before I would ever consider voting Tory. Also can’t really see any of the FDP voters and party members I know being ‚matey‘ with English Torykips…shudder. I would agree with BCF, we’re definitely the most liberal party socially and while the FDP is fiscally conservative, I would still see it economically left of the Tories.
For me the FDP is the party of civil liberties and the rule of law, things neither the CDU nor the SPD seem to value all that highly these days. I would also like to see progressive, evidence based (more experts, please!) policy making instead of the lazy ideological waffle and the sloppily drafted laws the CDU/CSU and SPD have been delivering for the last four years.
With regard to Brexit, the FDP’s manifesto indeed explicitly states no cherry picking and no compromising of the four freedoms. Fine with me to be honest. While I am (or maybe was?) a massive Anglophile and very sad to see the UK leave, I’m an even bigger Europhile and getting pretty fed up with the UK’s whiny and entitled approach to the negotiations. I feel sorry for remainers but don’t think we should be pandering to a country ruled by its gutter press.

As happy as I am about the FDP’s good result and the end of the dire grand coalition, I’m obviously disgusted (though by no means surprised) with the AFD’s success. Since they are pretty much a one topic party with a manifesto that doesn’t offer any solutions to the country’s most pressing problems, I hope they’ll be gone as quickly as they came. The media and other parties spent far to much time refusing to engage with the AFD and calling them Nazis (which some of them definitely are!), thereby turning them into victims of the evil establishment and allowing them to get away with their sound bites. Put them on the spot, force them to actually explain their ideas and they’ll unravel very quickly.

I think that Guardian article re the AFD posted by woman is spot on.

Mistigirl It raises my spirits to see someone say that about 'the left behind'. It seems so clear to me, looking at the data, but the same tired old story gets trotted out in the mainstream media ... I wonder if I'm looking at the same data, or if I'm missing something ...

Hashi I see what you're saying about Labour and Brexit. I hope you're right. I worry, though. I live in an area that is probably quite socially progressive. Canvassing suggested that Labour picked up a lot of votes in the GE as a protest against Brexit. I suspect a lot of those won't vote for Labour - may not vote at all - in the next GE unless Labour comes up with a real alternative. Brexit was a big thing on the doorstep.

Hello LemonandDill. What an interesting insight.

Thank LemonsandDIll for explaining FDP, hopefully they'll give DD a run for his money.

It was very interesting to get your perspective LemonandDill!

Cat it's probably a bit more nuanced than in my previous post. I do think that the core brexit vote was a vote by relatively privileged people. About two thirds of Tory voters voted to leave, whereas there was a big remain majority among Labour voters. It is probably true to say that Tory voters are on average wealthier than Lab voters, and this probably also holds true for brexit voters versus remainers.

At the margins though, the brexit vote was won by the "left behind", in the same way that a few tens of thousands of blue collar workers in a handful of swing states won the election for Trump. I don't doubt that for a minority of leavers, brexit was a protest about the status quo, and that this relatively small group of voters did tip the leave vote over the 50% line. But this group is very far from being representative of leavers as a whole. I don't understand why the Labour Party is putting is remain voters at risk in the pursuit of a small number of people who don't even turn out at most elections.

I'm really disappointed that the labour party aren't going to debate Brexit. I think they are scared of showing division in the party especially as the tories are imploding. But we all know it's there under the surface.
I wish we had PR. I know UKIP would have got seats but then so would the greens. I would vote lib dem to show that I want a second referendum but then I want the tories out.

I watched the 1997 landslide live in my flat in the former GDR. I knew a lot of people who missed aspects of the communist regime. Like UKIP these far right parties are often about taking us back to some wonderful past with the uncomfortable bits glossed over.

I agree that the left behind is a simplified wayou of looking at it. I come from a very poor background but went to uni. I now live on benefits (have a son with asd) but encourage my kids to look forward. It is not the eu's fault that I have a disabled child. It's just life and I just have to get on with it and vote for whoever will make that better (not the tories)!

My sister however voted Brexit because it's never helped her with her issues, all of which are the responsibility of the government not the eu. I won't deny she has been dealt a shitty hand but Brexit is only going to make things worse for her. Still we don't talk about it because she's all I've got and I love her and I don't want to fall out. But I can see how people voted leave because they thought it would change their lot in life.

Thank you, I'm learning so much from these threads and the many well informed and widely read people on here, so it's nice when I'm able to contribute something as well.

Put them on the spot, force them to actually explain their ideas and they’ll unravel very quickly.

That was one of the arguments for PR in the UK and letting UKIP gain some seats in HOP - horrific though that seemed. With genuine scrutiny in parliament instead of playing the victim they'd have been exposed more clearly.

Brilliant post lemons. Thank you.

Put them on the spot, force them to actually explain their ideas and they’ll unravel very quickly.

What happened to Le Pen when she had to debate Macron...

Wrt Labour, I'm not sure as the opposition they need a defined policy on Brexit. But it's an extremely poor show that they're not even discussing it at their conference when it affects everything.

I must say I'm a bit hazy on the status of a labour conference debate. Doesn't the outcome become policy? If so, then these two statements are incompatible. If not, then what's the point of conference?

I don't think Nige would have liked it in the commons. Sat all on his ownsome with not much time to say anything and when he did actual intelligent people able to cut through his soundbites. He might have liked the bar though, subsidised and all.

'socially left behind of their own free-will because they hate the direction of travel of a tolerant, more liberal society'.
Yes totally agree. Look at the white working class men 'left behind' in America. While women and BAME people retrain and find new opportunities the men complain that their jobs are gone and they aren't doing women's work. Then they vote for Trump. I don't think some of the leavers in places like S Wales/Teesside are too different

It makes me very uncomfortable seeing Farage wasting MEPs' time and being disrespectful in the EU Parliament. I wonder if he'd do the same if elected to the H of C?

While women and BAME people retrain and find new opportunities the men complain that their jobs are gone and they aren't doing women's work.
Agree - and we had to make our own opportunities - they weren't given to us on a plate.

The only positive I can take from the AFD is that it will galvanise opposition in the future. People will be so horrified that this could happen. But if Germany's economy starts to slide, well...