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Brexit

Westminstenders: The beginning of the dictatorship and the end of Boris?

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 09/09/2017 10:55

Brexit is being fought in the UK media and parliament on the premise that the EU is being difficult and obstructive.

The fallacy can not be understated.

What the UK fails to understand is the right of the EU to put their own interests before the UKs. It doesn't under that our demands cannot be met even if the EU wanted to for practical and legal reasons - not political ones because our understanding of the situation and law is so poor.

The net result is the slippage of the next phase of Brexit talks being pushed to Christmas by the EU due to lack of progress by the UK. Barnier is open to more regular and intense talks but this is bad news for the UK with the a50 clock ticking.

The main stumbling block is NI a with Barnier warning not to use the border as a way to test EU resolve. Brexit always about the NI border. The UK have never provided a solution to the EU that does not produce a hard border. The idea being pushed by the UK will create one despite claiming it won't. The reality is the only viable solutions are either staying in the single market and customs union or NI being granted special status and being different to the rest of the country. The former is opposed by the government, the later opposed by the DUP.

The DUP are getting a taste of their own medicine. They have been warned that Assembly Members might have pay frozen and if they don't reform Stormont they won't get their Billion Pound Booty. Plus Ian Paisley Jr just found a new scandal for the party.

May is trying to channel Venezuela by getting rid of democracy when it suits. The Great Repel Bill (aka as the Withdrawal Bill) faces it's challenge. The much feared Henry VIII in clause 9 are not only facing criticism from Remainers but also from the secretive crackpots of Tory Bastard Club (aka ERG). The TBC want hard cliff edge Brexit. May seems to support given her goodwill burning interference at the Home Office which seeks to discriminate against all foreigners and make them sign a register. The visa system and how it will attract much needed staff for the NHS makes the mind boggle.

The Repel Bill also could end the possibility of transition due to clause 6 which requires us to leave the ECJ. Given the May's ambition to make EU citizens display their stars in job applications this is totally unable to the EU. If it passes the chances of transition drop dramatically. Bye bye Smooth and Orderly.

Then there is the May-Bot paradox: the one were she gives a friendly speech to the EU and a nasty on to the Swivel Eyed Loon gathering. As if neither will be reported to the other audience.

On top of this May is attempting the Parliament Rigging Act as she has a 'majority Government'. Yep I know, this is the general election version of 'will of the people'. The Rigging Act seeks to stack parliamentary committees with Tory majorities so they can stop any bill they don't like getting anywhere need the main chamber this limiting the power of opposition to irrelevant. Sadly I think this one will get through due to maths of the HoC atm.

We shouldn't forget the role of the HoL though and the lack of a majority government (why do you think May is saying majority government? It's down to the Sewell convention and trying to make the case it applies when the argument is it doesn't for a minority government).

The other development is the rumours that Boris is for the boot. And Rees-Mogg might get a promotion.

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woman9917 · 11/09/2017 19:33

I like pants down's wife, Jane. She was door stepped when he had one of his extra maritals, and when the breathless journalist asked her how she felt, she said "Oh, that......" Brilliantly cool.

RedToothBrush · 11/09/2017 20:07

What sort of power has the HoL to stop that?

Simplest explanation I can give.

The Commons votes on something and approves it. It then goes to the Lords who also vote on it, adding amendments if they want. If they approve it, it passes back to the Commons to approve. If the Lords refuse to approve it, it passes back to the Commons to make changes before going back to the Lords for them to vote on it again.

Under normal circumstances the Lords are restricted in how much they can do this if they don't like a bill, and keep throwing it back to the Commons under the Salisbury convention.

The Salisbury Convention (officially called the Salisbury Doctrine, the Salisbury-Addison Convention or the Salisbury/Addison Convention) is a constitutional convention in the United Kingdom under which the House of Lords will not oppose the second or third reading of any government legislation promised in its election manifesto.

Its not enshrined in law though and there are questions over whether it applies to minority governments. There is a split view on this. This enhances the power to delay and force amendments of bills if correct.

Yes there's a catch. The Parliamentary Acts of 1911 and 1949.

This blocking of bills happened repeatedly. In 1909 there was a real issue with this and this lead to the 1911 Parliamentary Act which stopped the Lords from blocking money bills beyond 2 years. Its not been enforced though and instead the Salisbury convention is used to avoid its use. This was later added to with the 1949 act which reduced the limit of money bills to one year and introduced the limit of two years to public bills.

Between 1929 and 1931 the Conservative majority in the lords used their power to delay via wrecking amendments certain bills the Labour Minority government. Most legislation worked its way through by threatening use of the Parliament Act 1911.

If the Salisbury Act does not apply to minority governments the Lords could seek to delay / be difficult about a bill on its second or third reading and block its passage.

The government could threaten the use of 1949 Act to enforce it. Thus effectively bypassing the Lords. That wouldn't be a good look even if the Lords is hated if its about restoring power to our parliamentary democracy and its about British traditions and institutions. And if the Lords are not part of parliamentary scrutiny and democracy then what is the point of them?

Crucial point here though is also that the Lords CAN delay a bill for up to two years, if they saw fit. Since Art 50 exit day is BEFORE the end of that two year period, its could be difficult for the government to start enforcing the 1949 Act anyway.

Hence a constitutional crisis with the Lords working against the Commons or the threat of getting rid of the Lords completely by the government or the commons not being able to pass the withdrawal bill before Brexit Day and thus not having the legislation in place to make Brexit work, make various possible constitutional crisis a real possibility.

The Conservatives have a minority in the Lords with the Lib Dem / Labour combined having a majority. Add in cross benchers - many of whom are judges / lawyers then the Government might have an issue.

If Labour is serious about blocking this bill as a party, if they can't do it in the commons they CAN do it in the Lords. If only temporarily.

If the Commons do vote for the bill tonight, then its all eyes on the Lords for what they do next. Its bad if it passes, but it might not be the end of the world either (yet). There is still a way to get those much needed amendments to restrict the extent of its power in. But it will be seriously controversial and May won't like it.

We are looking for delays and amendments to this bill one way or another to stop the Tyranny of May. I'm fairly confident on a matter like this the Lords will step up to be difficult. How long and to what extent they are difficult and how far May decides to push back against that and what she threatens the Lords with, I have no clue on.

Think 'MESSY' in bold caps.

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woman9917 · 11/09/2017 20:35

Thank you for that explanation red and particularly for the hope. It is still a process.................

@davidallengreen
Let's see how the vote goes.
Expect government to win but likely to be heavy amendments at Committee stage.

woman9917 · 11/09/2017 20:40

^The EU Withdrawal Bill is just the start of Theresa May's uphill battle
Many in business and at Westminster privately expect the government to collapse sooner rather than later^
.
www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/09/eu-withdrawal-bill-just-start-theresa-mays-uphill-battle

RedToothBrush · 11/09/2017 20:54

I think the other positive sign is that the ERG are not too keen on those unlimited Henry VIII powers in cause 9 too. They are afraid the powers could be used to reverse Brexit.

Political will is there for amendment - unlike there was for a50 bill.

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HesterThrale · 11/09/2017 21:22

I'll certainly be using my (recommended) CommonsVotes app tonight, and over the next few weeks, to see who's voting for what.

SwedishEdith · 11/09/2017 21:29

think the other positive sign is that the ERG are not too keen on those unlimited Henry VIII powers in cause 9 too. They are afraid the powers could be used to reverse Brexit.

Hmm, see, imagine if Theresa May really was that clever and that's why it's there?

RedToothBrush · 11/09/2017 21:38

Hmm, see, imagine if Theresa May really was that clever and that's why it's there?

Don't be a Kate Hoey.

twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/907334621867790336
The tweet in which Farage really does jump the shark.

I must say I am getting quite concerned for Nig. He really seems to be struggling to get attention.

I think he needs a hug.

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Badders08 · 11/09/2017 21:39

I think he needs a smack in the head with something heavy....

RedToothBrush · 11/09/2017 21:50

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-41229486
Catalan independence rally: Thousands gather in Barcelona

Well this one could be interesting...

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RedToothBrush · 11/09/2017 22:44

Robert Peston on Facebook (just posted)

Tomorrow or Wednesday (ministers making up minds) a strong signal will be sent that the 1% public sector pay cap is dead.

Because the government will announce that the pay of police and prison officers will increase more than that hated, below-inflation 1%.

But we are not talking about a bonanza for cops and screws: both will receive less than 2%.

The government, probably in the shape of the chief secretary to the Treasury Liz Truss, is expected to announce that ministers have accepted recommendations of the two services' pay review bodies that 1% is not appropriate for them.

However there is a sting.

As of now, no new money will be found for the prison and police services to fund the pay rises, which brings the risk of them having to make cuts elsewhere - and that will be controversial.

Even so, ministers are not hosing down the suggestion that with prison and police staff getting more than 1% this year, it will be impossible to limit pay rises to 1% next year for the rest of the public sector.

The big questions, which won't be answered till the budget in November, is what size of pay rise the Treasury is prepared to finance next year - and therefore what level of pay increase it recommends as the public-sector benchmark for all the review bodies.

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SwedishEdith · 12/09/2017 00:21

www.ft.com/content/60d55cb0-970f-11e7-b83c-9588e51488a0

UK pledges EU defence co-operation after Brexit.

"The British document on foreign policy, defence and overseas development is one of the clearest signs yet that the UK is looking to avoid a radical break with the EU after Brexit, which is scheduled for March 2019."

lonelyplanetmum · 12/09/2017 05:51

Conservative MPs have warned Theresa May that their support for her government’s Brexit legislation is not unconditional, as they demanded significant changes to the EU withdrawal bill within minutes of backing it..*......parliament’s post-midnight vote resulted in the prime minister facing no rebellion from within her party, as the government secured a victory of 326 to 290. The result handed May an effective “Brexit majority” of 36 after seven Labour MPs – Ronnie Campbell, Frank Field, Kate Hoey, Kelvin Hopkins, John Mann, Dennis Skinner and Graham Stringer – defied their own party whip to support the government,

woman9917 · 12/09/2017 06:58

The racism directed at Diane Abbott backfired on the Tories though. It incentivised Momentum into mobilising BAME members to get the black vote out. Several seats with a high BAME population switched from the Tories to Labour. In fact, Labour achieved an incredible 11.5 per cent increase in its vote share in the 75 most ethnically diverse seats and Diane Abbott received an increased majority of over 35,000

Racism runs through Tory Party DNA like a virus, contaminating the well from which we all must drink. But as an electoral tactic it seems its days are thankfully numbered

www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2017/09/tories-attacked-diane-abbott-pack-hounds-it-backfired

David Lammy's recent report and his absolutely stirling work on Grenfell, about which there are so many questions, not least the mortality rate, is ensuring that it's a clear choice between the racist tories and the others.

The callous incompetence of this administration to Irma devastation in Anguilla, would not have happened if this hurricane had happened in the Falklands.

Tory and leaver racism is making it easy to choose between the parties, in the next election, if the glorious leader permits one.

woman9917 · 12/09/2017 07:04

@JohnRentoul
Overblown rhetoric from Remain MPs Stephen Kinnock and Ed Davey. Silent coup d'etat, elective dictatorship...

@bbclaurak
It's all got a bit House of Cards in the debate in the last half hour, accusations of 'coup d'etat', 'elected dictatorship'

Don't mention the coup? Hmm

Maybe that's another rule to abide by to get a press pack card.

lonelyplanetmum · 12/09/2017 07:12

Some of us have been mentioning the word coup from the very beginning,but it isn't a silent one. Rather than a coup based on violence from the beginning it has been based on very loud deceits by Gove, Leadsome,Boris et al.

I must be very innocent as I remain in a state of disbelief that so much of the electorate and the government are comfortable with rewarding open deceits with high office. So it's a coup d'eceit.

woman9917 · 12/09/2017 07:19

Why is it not in the front page of all the newspapers? Not even the Independat and the Guardian

eternaloptimist I am wondering the same.

Still not there, even today, and it's not a 'coup'.

If it's not there, does it not exist?

Rather than a coup based on violence
Yes.

PattyPenguin · 12/09/2017 07:39

An attempted coup, rather. There's no guarantee it will succeed.
www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/12/theresa-may-eu-withdrawal-bill-brexit-stance-conservatives

DrivenToDespair · 12/09/2017 07:45

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

scaryclown · 12/09/2017 07:49

A euro is about a quid now. In Europe we are all well poor now.

TheElementsSong · 12/09/2017 07:51

I don't recall seeing that on the ballot paper, either.

There were, it seems, a whole lot of (often mutually contradictory) things on that ballot paper, that The People apparently voted for with perfect foresight and complete knowledge, that therefore must now be brought to pass even in defiance of reality.

Maybe if you put your X in the Leave box, a whole lot of hitherto invisible-ink questions appeared?

Peregrina · 12/09/2017 08:23

Even the BBC managed to have a programme about it being a silent coup a few days after the Referendum. This was before it became the UKIP BC.

I really think we have got to get the term Enabling Act to attach to this bill, so that it's clearly associated with Nazism. The right wing Tories don't mind being Nazis, they just don't like being seen to be so. This would scupper it in the way the term 'Dementia tax' scuppered the Tories proposals on elderly care.

prettybird · 12/09/2017 08:38

Unfortunately Peregrina I don't think enough of the public would understand what the Enabling Act was Sad

The Dementia Tax was something that they could anticipate affecting them - they know what dementia is and that there's a likelihood of them or someone close to them suffering from it - whereas the Enabling Act is something that a) they don't even know about in historical terms and b) don't think it will ever affect them. Hmm

Peregrina · 12/09/2017 08:43

I agree, I don't think the Public would understand what the Enabling Act was either. You only have to look at the other thread which is asking why Labour is against this Bill. The Tories have cleverly packaged a power grab as promoting Brexit. But it needs to be something which shames the Tories and makes the influential core be seen as Nazis. How do we do that?

prettybird · 12/09/2017 08:52

Could be call it the "Wolf in Sheep's clothing" Act? Or the "Coup d'Etat" Act?

Unfortunately, not enough people would believe it is really the "Dictatorship Enabling" Act or the "Hitler's" Act. In the latter case, they would just claim Godwin's Law and stick their heads in the sand and/or their fingers over their ears. Confused

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