Westminstenders: The beginning of the dictatorship and the end of Boris?

[RedToothBrush]

Brexit is being fought in the UK media and parliament on the premise that the EU is being difficult and obstructive.

The fallacy can not be understated.

What the UK fails to understand is the right of the EU to put their own interests before the UKs. It doesn't under that our demands cannot be met even if the EU wanted to for practical and legal reasons - not political ones because our understanding of the situation and law is so poor.

The net result is the slippage of the next phase of Brexit talks being pushed to Christmas by the EU due to lack of progress by the UK. Barnier is open to more regular and intense talks but this is bad news for the UK with the a50 clock ticking.

The main stumbling block is NI a with Barnier warning not to use the border as a way to test EU resolve. Brexit always about the NI border. The UK have never provided a solution to the EU that does not produce a hard border. The idea being pushed by the UK will create one despite claiming it won't. The reality is the only viable solutions are either staying in the single market and customs union or NI being granted special status and being different to the rest of the country. The former is opposed by the government, the later opposed by the DUP.

The DUP are getting a taste of their own medicine. They have been warned that Assembly Members might have pay frozen and if they don't reform Stormont they won't get their Billion Pound Booty. Plus Ian Paisley Jr just found a new scandal for the party.

May is trying to channel Venezuela by getting rid of democracy when it suits. The Great Repel Bill (aka as the Withdrawal Bill) faces it's challenge. The much feared Henry VIII in clause 9 are not only facing criticism from Remainers but also from the secretive crackpots of Tory Bastard Club (aka ERG). The TBC want hard cliff edge Brexit. May seems to support given her goodwill burning interference at the Home Office which seeks to discriminate against all foreigners and make them sign a register. The visa system and how it will attract much needed staff for the NHS makes the mind boggle.

The Repel Bill also could end the possibility of transition due to clause 6 which requires us to leave the ECJ. Given the May's ambition to make EU citizens display their stars in job applications this is totally unable to the EU. If it passes the chances of transition drop dramatically. Bye bye Smooth and Orderly.

Then there is the May-Bot paradox: the one were she gives a friendly speech to the EU and a nasty on to the Swivel Eyed Loon gathering. As if neither will be reported to the other audience.

On top of this May is attempting the Parliament Rigging Act as she has a 'majority Government'. Yep I know, this is the general election version of 'will of the people'. The Rigging Act seeks to stack parliamentary committees with Tory majorities so they can stop any bill they don't like getting anywhere need the main chamber this limiting the power of opposition to irrelevant. Sadly I think this one will get through due to maths of the HoC atm.

We shouldn't forget the role of the HoL though and the lack of a majority government (why do you think May is saying majority government? It's down to the Sewell convention and trying to make the case it applies when the argument is it doesn't for a minority government).

The other development is the rumours that Boris is for the boot. And Rees-Mogg might get a promotion.

Now we're told that Leavers said it would be 10- 20 years before we see any benefit

There are always a few outliers, a few exceptions to my next paragraph

But anyone saying the above is true and that as a leaver they both 'knew' and said that is generally going to be lying

Just like Leavers here & elsewhere claiming "noone" believed the £350 million on the bus.
A significant % of Leave voters in polls said they did

While we have clearly seen a resurfacing of racism and intolerance (I believe there has also been an increase in misogyny as well), I have been heartened to see that there has also been a noticeable rise in politicisation in response to that. It is particularly noticeable in the young. It is fascinating to see the rise in new types of media and institutions that appear to be growing up to circumnavigate the mainstream white male bastions of the media in particular.

It seems to me that the majority of people in this country are still tolerant and open, we just became complacent. We thought we had won the arguement and settled back to argue about semantics forgetting that just because racism is not obvious doesn't mean it is not there. I don't think this is going to be an easy win, but I think we can get to a country that is open and respectful. It will just take time and persistence.

MsHoolies if you and your DH have a mortgage free home in London then divorce is unlikely to see you living in a bedsit on benefits. Being facetious to make the point that for a great many Leave voters living outside London there would be absolutely no prospect of them ending up in the fortunate position you are in with or without the warts and all DH. Whether Leaving the EU improves their lot or not is immaterial to those who feel it couldn't get much worse for them but it has been getting better for others now seeking to persuade them of the merits of Remain.

Those who are less well off now may become worse off in a UK that competes on WTO terms with China, India etc
May become worse off because there is less public spending after the planned lower taxes to retain business and high-flyers

Minford & the hard right Tory Brexiters happily talk of UK manufacturing and farming disappearing - 8% of UK jobs.

It's not just the comfortable mc who will be hit by a Tory hard Brexit, but the mc will be much better equipped to survive by cutting back than those who have v little to cut back.

The Bonfire of Red Tape and abandonment of the EU Social Chapter that the Tory Brexiters plan will be far worse for the low paid,
who depend far more on such protections than the professional mc

In the past, a lower pound has done little to expand UK exports, after an initial flurry
However, it always leads to higher prices in the shops, which hurts those on the lowest incomes far more than the mc

So, making life tougher for the professional mc, because of anger, ends up hurting the poorest the most.

Re: London. Its highly ignorant to assume it's or its inhabitants are rich. It's and they are mainly poor. And poor as. More than half the children in Tottenham live below the poverty line for instance. Tarring everyone with the same brush for some facetious reason. Precisely what we're not allowed to do for leavers apparently.

It's definitely a complete lie anyone who says they knew it'd be 10-20 years at best. Short term pain for long term gain remember.

Unless of course this is another attempt at redefining words. Like racism and people, now short term is quite long.

Hashi I did not tar all Londoners as rich. In fact I am very well aware that London has more poverty per head than most of the rest of the UK.

However if you own a family home mortgage free in London you are in the priveleged few in London and also the rest of the UK.

Place marking.
MrBigly
For those who are saying there were fewer people at yesterday's march, don't forget we're only a couple of weeks away from the Tory party conference and people who are in the North may decide to go to marches related to that rather than schlepp down to London.

Your comment about owning a home in London mortgage free not leaving you in a bedsit with benefits really does suggest you assume much about the richness of London. I know if I split from my husband, in the event we were mortgage free, I could live for a short while but a bedsit on benefits may well be where I'd end up. Because all areas of London do not have property worth ridiculous amounts.

Thank you, Red. Excellent as always.

We can see an example of the regard the Tories have for the most vulnerable:

the victims of hurricane Irma in the British overseas territories in the Caribbean.
A British responsibility
The govt are expecting the British public & charities to share the load of financing emergency aid
There is also direct UK govt help, but that will be too little too late as usual

www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/09/britain-not-doing-enough-to-help-its-caribbean-territories

UK ministers pledged to double any public donations to the British Red Cross appeal for victims.
....
However, the British response has been contrasted with that of France, whose overseas island territories of Saint Martin and Saint Barthélemy have also been hit hard.
France’s director of public safety, Jacques Witkowski, said France had “1,100 people, both civilian and military, deployed on the islands” to help with recovery.

First off, with half the proceeds of a family home you wouldn't be entitled to any benefits.

Yes, hence why I said I could live for a short while. The proceeds of my home wouldn't take long to go until you were down to zero. I'm not unique. I known a couple of people who've recently had to do this from full ownership, it's scarily hard. And that's with scrimping and saving and eeking it out.

howabout Don't worry, I am very well aware of my privilege and that I massively lucked out by happening to buy a house at the right time. For my penance, I give £800 pm to charity.
This probably isn't really relevant to this thread but I just want to rant. I have been a CPN for 18 years and it's really hard to relay how much things have changed. When I started, nearly all my patients had secure social housing tenancies. Now, the vast majority are in temporary accommodation and have to move every 3 months. I see countless families of 4 or 5 or 6 people living in one room with mice and cockroaches running around sharing a kitchen and bathroom with up to 10 other families.
Grenfell tower feels so symbolic in the way that Hillsborough did 30 years ago - that poor people don't matter. They're not worth spending a few thousand extra pounds on in the richest borough in London to pay for cladding that isn't combustible and doesn't incinerate dozens of people.
DH is a mental health nurse in Kensington and Chelsea. The fallout from Grenfell is indescribable - not just for those who were bereaved but for those who managed to escape and those who saw it happen, who saw people jumping, who smelled the burning flesh, who heard the screams. There are over 200 case of PTSD, there have been a number of suicides. And this all could have been prevented by spending a few thousand pounds on the non combustible cladding. But fuck it, they're just council tenants. Who gives a shit?
Let's just all vote for the people's champions - Bojo, JRM and Theresa May.

Depends on how much equity you have to split, after paying any other debts
And on whether you are able to earn enough - especially if you have to pay London childcare costs.

Anyone who has gone pt for years, or expecially SAHP, could find their half of a property runs out alarmingly quickly

MrsH I don't see help for the vulnerable increasing with Brexit
At best, struggling to maintain current levels

Those 10-20 years to see the benefits of Brexit may be ok for the superwealthy - with abodes in multiple countries anyway - also for those mc with a financial cushion
but could drive even more on lower incomes into sofa-surfing with cockroaches, or just giving up on life.

Which group of people are most the least likely to have a mortgage free home in London? The young.
Which group voted predominantly to remain? The young.
Who stand to lose the most when we Brexit? The young.

This is what frustrates me mrs h. Mum worked in social care and saw the exact same happen in the late 80s, early 90s under Thatcher. I do feel like we've gone back in time- tatty town centres, closed shops, lots of homeless on the streets, long NHS waiting lists etc etc. Yet everyone blames immigration

The worst thing is that the tories have leapt on this as a screen for their policies "Oh yes, YES, it is all those nasty immigrants, absolutely NOTHING to do with us, nooo. Here, we'll get rid of them for you and all the problems will go away!". People fall for this crap because a large chunk of the uk are latently xenophobic (can't be arsed to argue on this, I've lived all over England and it's true) and it's easier to blame another group of people than hold the tories to account.

Will people care when the immigrants have left but the problems remain? No, they'll round on someone else, probably second generation communities or "benefit cheats".

Bolshy Having lived in London all my adult life, I just don't get racism/Xenophobia. We just take it as a given that there are white people/ African people/Carribbean people/ Chinese people/ Indian people/Pakistani people and all combinations of the above. DS2's best friend has a mum who is half Irish and half Thai and a dad who is half Ghanaian and half Japanese.

Sadly a very different picture in the very, very white village that I grew up in, mrs Hoolie. There are some lovely, open, friendly people that live there (my mum ), but there's also a lot of people whose only experience of non-white British people is through the pages of the daily mail. Racism and homophobia were prevalent at my secondary school and what I now realise we're extremely offensive disablist insults were common in the playground.

Couldn't wait to leave and hell would freeze over before I moved back. Much prefer living on the edge of a big,ugly city!

MsHoolies - in a lot of English villages and small towns, a foreigner is someone who comes from more than about 30 miles away. So what chance does someone have who comes from outside the UK?

in a lot of English villages and small towns, a foreigner is someone who comes from more than about 30 miles away

I am about to get into a big battle on that one where the ruling establishment seem to have little regard for anyone who hasn't been there for a million years or isn't under 65 and in their little gang.

As I am living in one of those small towns (in the north/strong leave area too), I can concur that a foreigner doesn't stand a chance :(:(