Westminstenders: The beginning of the dictatorship and the end of Boris?

[RedToothBrush]

Brexit is being fought in the UK media and parliament on the premise that the EU is being difficult and obstructive.

The fallacy can not be understated.

What the UK fails to understand is the right of the EU to put their own interests before the UKs. It doesn't under that our demands cannot be met even if the EU wanted to for practical and legal reasons - not political ones because our understanding of the situation and law is so poor.

The net result is the slippage of the next phase of Brexit talks being pushed to Christmas by the EU due to lack of progress by the UK. Barnier is open to more regular and intense talks but this is bad news for the UK with the a50 clock ticking.

The main stumbling block is NI a with Barnier warning not to use the border as a way to test EU resolve. Brexit always about the NI border. The UK have never provided a solution to the EU that does not produce a hard border. The idea being pushed by the UK will create one despite claiming it won't. The reality is the only viable solutions are either staying in the single market and customs union or NI being granted special status and being different to the rest of the country. The former is opposed by the government, the later opposed by the DUP.

The DUP are getting a taste of their own medicine. They have been warned that Assembly Members might have pay frozen and if they don't reform Stormont they won't get their Billion Pound Booty. Plus Ian Paisley Jr just found a new scandal for the party.

May is trying to channel Venezuela by getting rid of democracy when it suits. The Great Repel Bill (aka as the Withdrawal Bill) faces it's challenge. The much feared Henry VIII in clause 9 are not only facing criticism from Remainers but also from the secretive crackpots of Tory Bastard Club (aka ERG). The TBC want hard cliff edge Brexit. May seems to support given her goodwill burning interference at the Home Office which seeks to discriminate against all foreigners and make them sign a register. The visa system and how it will attract much needed staff for the NHS makes the mind boggle.

The Repel Bill also could end the possibility of transition due to clause 6 which requires us to leave the ECJ. Given the May's ambition to make EU citizens display their stars in job applications this is totally unable to the EU. If it passes the chances of transition drop dramatically. Bye bye Smooth and Orderly.

Then there is the May-Bot paradox: the one were she gives a friendly speech to the EU and a nasty on to the Swivel Eyed Loon gathering. As if neither will be reported to the other audience.

On top of this May is attempting the Parliament Rigging Act as she has a 'majority Government'. Yep I know, this is the general election version of 'will of the people'. The Rigging Act seeks to stack parliamentary committees with Tory majorities so they can stop any bill they don't like getting anywhere need the main chamber this limiting the power of opposition to irrelevant. Sadly I think this one will get through due to maths of the HoC atm.

We shouldn't forget the role of the HoL though and the lack of a majority government (why do you think May is saying majority government? It's down to the Sewell convention and trying to make the case it applies when the argument is it doesn't for a minority government).

The other development is the rumours that Boris is for the boot. And Rees-Mogg might get a promotion.

woman I wouldn't be so pessimistic quite yet (about strikes I mean).

Well I certainly hope getting rid of foreigners is worth sacrificing freedom. Because none of this is about taking back control. Argh.

Agree, figment what I mean is there are many ways to skin a cat.

Our purchase as 'citizens' is as consumers, debtors and data sources, there's lots of potential there for effective action too.

In turns of looking (and being) undemocratic that bill is the pits. Will stir talk of revolt by other means if can't be done by parliament and the opposition.

There has been a massive societal change over the last 40 years, with most people competing against everyone else
People voting for tax cuts and benefit cuts.
Succeeding by stamping on the heads of those on the rungs below
Me, me, me

Strikes need solidairy and willingness to sacrifice for each other
I'm not sure if those qualities still exists in sufficient amounts

Just had an e mail from yougov - some interesting questions!!

Re: comments about civil contingency etc and having a criminal record. People with a stake in the future and something to fall back on will be fine. People who are already on the breadline have very little to lose given the way in which austerity has cut everything to the bone. In this case, it will be many leavers who fall into the 'left behind' categories who will be unhappy and will view it as the Tory bastards rather than it being about the EU in the end. They won't care who is to blame, just that they haven't got any food or money etc.

Its worth invoking Godwin at this point. The Nazis were supported by many because they offered 'work and bread'. It was a crucial thing in building a power base - though 'the people' to take over the country. What the Tories are doing is counter to that.

This is perhaps where Labour's Brexit position, up to this point HAS been a masterstroke. The government can try and argue differently but they miss the other significant point: Much of the public don't put Brexit at the top of their priority list. Instead its more basic desires for health and education.

The riots a few years ago, also existed within a different bubble. You have a situation where most middle class were very much against that.

With Brexit, a sizeable number of that middle class are Remainers. They won't like civil unrest, but I can also see many having a get deal of sympathy for unrest in the event of food shortages etc because they realise that Brexit is a cluster fuck. The Tories will have to win them over. But they voted for Labour in droves precisely because they understood that Tories were bastards and were handling things badly.

Richard North has a new blog this morning.
www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86603
He seems to be of a similar mindset to me. His last sentence says: On 30 March 2019, it isn't quite going to look like the picture I've used. But soon afterwards, it may feel like it.

People might think this is all overly dramatic. Its not. The government are trying to undo the last 40 years overnight. What do you think happens when someone tries that? That's a political revolution, and there are few truly bloodless revolutions of that type. The stage is set for a pitched battle, with the right spark if it does go particularly badly.

Especially when the Tories have little understanding of how things actually have affected people to the point where they are desperate.

I am now slowly getting to the point where I genuinely think the next general election will be delayed 'because Brexit' if we are not careful.

Anyway, I hope you are all having a lovely cheery Tuesday morning.

Katie Martin‏*@katie*martinfx
Really interesting from the Australian high commissioner to the UK.

If you recast the referendum, it's result, and subsequent General Election as part of a continuum, things actually make perfect sense.

In a way, it's actually surprising that it took so long.

But if nothing else, the effect has been to disenfranchise the electorate.

Look at the mess people voting has caused. Probably want to stop that nonsense, eh ?

I don't think the tide IS turning yet like Chukka.

The tide HASN'T turned yet. That's the point.

I think that what we are actually seeing is the last ditch attempt of the Hard Brexiteers to force through a Hard Brexit. Unfortunately May is one of them. This IS being resisted and all these leaks and the announcement of this plan by the treasury is part of that, somehow. The Hard Brexiteers have the upper hand and all the power unfortunately.

(What do you think is going on with Phillip Hammond and Parliamentary Private Secretary Suella Fernandes?)

Really not sure who is going to win yet, but this is the 'Big Showdown' within the Tory Party. We are not at 'doomsday'. Yet.

Decision time.

Strikes need solidairy and willingness to sacrifice for each other
I'm not sure if those qualities still exists in sufficient amounts

Being frozen out of the EU in a sudden exit would certainly test that.

Imagine: You can't get drugs. You can't get food. You can't sell anything. No one has any money. This isn't just the poor. This is the middle classes.

People won't look to government. They will look to each other against the government.

The government can blame the EU in this situation. But ideology doesn't pay the bills and put food on the table.

The person who offers the idea of 'work and bread' will be the one who gets the support.

Michelle Clifford‏ @skynewsmichelle
Juncker says EU pushing for trade deals with Australia and New Zealand and announces is opening negotiations with those countries #SOTEU

Faisal Islam‏*@faisalislam*

No mention of Brexit from Juncker, which might appear odd in a speech about the "state of the EU".. now speeding up trade talks with Oz/NZ

They'll blame Remoaners.

John Redwood‏*@johnredwood*
1/3 The UK has emerged as the second most influential country in the world after the US. Yet many in the UK establishment are so negative.
2/3 Yet senior lawyers, large company executives, senior civil servants & some MPs have a low opinion of our country and its capabilities.
3/3 Some senior officials seem to want to stay wedded to Brussels instructions instead of fashioning a new global presence and UK policy.

ARRRRRRGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!

You can't get drugs

I have seen no evidence that the withdrawal of my particular medicine is not down to the loss of profitability, as the collapse in the pound changes many multi-year budgeting decisions from profit to loss.

I'd be curious to know if there are other medications which UK companies have withdrawn "due to business decisions" (as the suppliers of mine stated) ?

I'm guessing a lot of drugs have US license holders, and they want paying in dollars.

The Remoaners will be in the same boat.
Still doesn't put food on table and pay the bills.

Trying to turn the middle classes v the working classes in a classic divide and rule might be harder that the Tories think in those circumstances.

There are ways to do it, but problems at Dover etc will be far more far reaching in their impact than people are aware of and want to acknowledge.

The "turning the middle class against the working class" is a bit of a thing, isn;t it? I've noticed that there seems to be a real drive to try and brainwash us into thinking that Brexit is only going to impact on the middle classes (who needed taking down a peg or two).

I do wonder how long that can last when people actually, really can't afford to eat.

I agree with BigChoc
I can't see the population as whole really getting together against the government.
Too much of the 'keep calm and keep going' attitude too that gently pushes people to keep their head down and accept anything 'because you can't do anything about it so bother fighting' (said to me by quite a few people on very different subjects such as fracking, even if they are living next door to a fracking site etc etc)
Imo there is a clear sentiment that as a'normal' member of the population, you have no power at all and just have to deal with whatever the people at the top (the rich, the politicians) are sending your way.

And TBH, if there was an unrest and any kind of pressure from the population against Brexit/the government/whatever stupid decisions they are taking, it needs to be done now. Not when Brexit is there and there is no food in the supermarket shelves. At that point, the ship will have passed.

I'm rapidly coming round to the idea that it's time to sell up and GTFO of the UK. DH has been of this mindset for quite a while - we don't discuss Brexit because he gets so angry about it.

red I would be very worried about who will be
The person who offers the idea of 'work and bread'

I'm rapidly coming round to the idea that it's time to sell up and GTFO of the UK

Anyone who can comfortably set up life elsewhere really ought to consider it. Although that would make you a traitor who is not pulling together, or some such crap.

E.g Just two months ago, the government secured a permanent injunction to prevent members of the prison officers association refusing to carry out voluntary tasks in the course of employment.

But, if someone said that they were just too busy to do various voluntary tasks, it would almost certainly be true given the present cuts, and difficult to prove that it was a co-ordinated action.

the immediate response was to issue fast, indiscriminate criminal penalties that were way out of proportion to the crimes eg Criminal record for taking a bottle of water etc.

Yes, but my late Quaker DF's friends who went to prison during WW2 for their beliefs wore it as a badge of honour. DF (rather to his annoyance, I feel), was given an uncondtional discharge after his tribunal.)

Come on though people - apartheid was brought down, Communism in Eastern Europe was brought down, and the repression from people suffering from both was still worse that what most of us have yet suffered. So we must fight on.

The monsters came to power in Germany because desperate people didn't care who was offering an apparent lifeline.

Scapegoating an identifiably "different" group for the troubles of a country meant that the native industrialists and wealthy escaped blame for the massive cockups

Elements we would be more than happy to be traitors if it means preserving our quality of life and opportunities for the DCs. Technically we are already traitors as DH and DCs have EU passports and aren't afraid to use them.