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Brexit

Westminstenders: The beginning of the dictatorship and the end of Boris?

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 09/09/2017 10:55

Brexit is being fought in the UK media and parliament on the premise that the EU is being difficult and obstructive.

The fallacy can not be understated.

What the UK fails to understand is the right of the EU to put their own interests before the UKs. It doesn't under that our demands cannot be met even if the EU wanted to for practical and legal reasons - not political ones because our understanding of the situation and law is so poor.

The net result is the slippage of the next phase of Brexit talks being pushed to Christmas by the EU due to lack of progress by the UK. Barnier is open to more regular and intense talks but this is bad news for the UK with the a50 clock ticking.

The main stumbling block is NI a with Barnier warning not to use the border as a way to test EU resolve. Brexit always about the NI border. The UK have never provided a solution to the EU that does not produce a hard border. The idea being pushed by the UK will create one despite claiming it won't. The reality is the only viable solutions are either staying in the single market and customs union or NI being granted special status and being different to the rest of the country. The former is opposed by the government, the later opposed by the DUP.

The DUP are getting a taste of their own medicine. They have been warned that Assembly Members might have pay frozen and if they don't reform Stormont they won't get their Billion Pound Booty. Plus Ian Paisley Jr just found a new scandal for the party.

May is trying to channel Venezuela by getting rid of democracy when it suits. The Great Repel Bill (aka as the Withdrawal Bill) faces it's challenge. The much feared Henry VIII in clause 9 are not only facing criticism from Remainers but also from the secretive crackpots of Tory Bastard Club (aka ERG). The TBC want hard cliff edge Brexit. May seems to support given her goodwill burning interference at the Home Office which seeks to discriminate against all foreigners and make them sign a register. The visa system and how it will attract much needed staff for the NHS makes the mind boggle.

The Repel Bill also could end the possibility of transition due to clause 6 which requires us to leave the ECJ. Given the May's ambition to make EU citizens display their stars in job applications this is totally unable to the EU. If it passes the chances of transition drop dramatically. Bye bye Smooth and Orderly.

Then there is the May-Bot paradox: the one were she gives a friendly speech to the EU and a nasty on to the Swivel Eyed Loon gathering. As if neither will be reported to the other audience.

On top of this May is attempting the Parliament Rigging Act as she has a 'majority Government'. Yep I know, this is the general election version of 'will of the people'. The Rigging Act seeks to stack parliamentary committees with Tory majorities so they can stop any bill they don't like getting anywhere need the main chamber this limiting the power of opposition to irrelevant. Sadly I think this one will get through due to maths of the HoC atm.

We shouldn't forget the role of the HoL though and the lack of a majority government (why do you think May is saying majority government? It's down to the Sewell convention and trying to make the case it applies when the argument is it doesn't for a minority government).

The other development is the rumours that Boris is for the boot. And Rees-Mogg might get a promotion.

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RedToothBrush · 12/09/2017 22:15

May has acted unlawfully many times. There has been talk of undermining the rule of law (judges are the enemies of the people) and the law 'failing over' because the Repel Bill is flawed.

The idea of the police acting unlawfully isn't so bizarre.

This is part of the point. A collapse in the law. The law only exists by society's collective acceptance of it. It is not unbreakable. A collapse in society connected with Brexit, is possible.

Breakdowns in society are connected to revolutions. We have a technological one in progress, and all the signs - which Lurking helpfully adds to with that post - that society can't quite cope with that technological revolution.

We also appear to have something of a political fracture present and a polarisation of political extremes.

None of these are healthy signs in isolation. In combination they should worry you.

I personally don't know in which direction this is going to ultimately tip. One side holds power - but with declining support - and is desperately trying to cling to it. The other is rising in support - but lacks tangible power - but may have power in other sources which it can harness.

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RedToothBrush · 12/09/2017 22:16

Lurking would you like a tin foil hat? Do you think mine suits me?

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BigChocFrenzy · 12/09/2017 22:23

No significant country trades on pure WTO terms with the EU - or with the other trade blocs

Trade is normally enabled by at least several MRAs - negotiated over years

Only about 6 countries out of 190+ in the world do not belong to their regional trade bloc - NKorea being 1 of the 6

QuentinSummers · 12/09/2017 22:26

Oh god. Eddie Izzard was awful on Question Time. Way to full of his own self-importance. Mind you, that could make an ideal MP Grin

QuentinSummers · 12/09/2017 22:33

RTB the police have a concept of "policing by consent" and it is fundamental to how they operate. Part of why the conversation about armed police is tense - because the police believe they are their because the public have asked them to be, not because the government have mandated it. They are not militarised (Hope that makes sense!). Keeping that public consent is paramount to them so they really won't do anything to damage that- and an unlawful strike might do that.
The government take the piss really by relying on that aspect and the illegality of police strikes to treat them like shit. Makes me angry (but the way all the public sector are treated makes me angry tbh)

BigChocFrenzy · 12/09/2017 22:35

Apologies to the chimps for comparing MPs to them, but ....

Westminstenders: The beginning of the dictatorship and the end of Boris?
QuentinSummers · 12/09/2017 22:36

Delay in negotiation for "consultation" or possible intervention by May. I really hope this isn't a hard Brexit notification from the Govt
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41246573

RedToothBrush · 12/09/2017 22:47

Scenario: a general strike the police support.

Then what? That's the type of situation I'm thinking of and envisaging. Not simply the police acting alone.

Basically the government loosing it's public consent and the police supporting where public consent is.

Somewhere in this dynamic is also the point about how age demographics and the working population stack up.

Pensioners might be the ones who support the government. They are also not workers.

The power lies with those who provide labour here even if it's pensioners who have the money. The fact the pensioners have the money is also part of the problem. They are the elite in owning property which the workers have to rent at extortionate prices for a poor standard. Close the door on immigration and you also increase the power of the work force if there are already labour shortages.

Join the dots. Perfect storm might brew yet.

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BigChocFrenzy · 12/09/2017 22:58

euroskeptics in free fall at european parliament

www.politico.eu/article/euroskeptics-in-free-fall-at-european-parliament/

Having failed to win major victories in national elections,
anti-EU parties are now in disarray in the European Parliament, where they have long fought Brussels from within.

Leading figures have bowed out or will soon depart, MEPs in their ranks are fighting corruption charges,
and Brexit will seriously deplete their numbers.

RedToothBrush · 12/09/2017 23:01

Simon the Stylite @ SimeOnStylites
1. We are sleepwalking our way to a national crisis.
2. This is not a Brexit means Brexit point. But Brexit does not mean any Brexit.
3. It's abundantly clear that the "deep and special relationship" so much promised is not going to work.
4. To believe otherwise, you would have to assume that the EU's red lines are insubstantial vs the UK. No evidence of that.
5. There's also no sign of the UK shifting course. Instead, both the parliamentary dynamics continue to favour the govt.
6. Despite the snap GE's repudiation ofTM's approach, the govt is assisted by rebel Lab MPs and the DUP.
7. There is now no institutional defence against No Deal. Despite all the evidence that this would be a disaster.
8. And, this is where we are inexorably headed. That's the logic of the situation.
9. There's neither the time nor the political inclination to avoid this train wreck.
10. Treasury can do what it wants to prepare but it does not have the power to shield the country from this outcome.
11. So, expect lower £, higher inflation, lower business investment and economic growth impaired.
12. Is this inevitable? No of course not. We have choices but that simple truth seems impossible to grasp.
13. A crisis looms. Will we shrink away from disaster? That seems unlikely. // ends

All bets are off in a national crisis.

It is an end of certainity and beginning of chaos.

Count the times the word crops up. NHS crisis. Prison crisis. Teaching crisis. Policing crisis. Social care crisis. Constitutional crisis. And now a Brexit crisis.

At some point it reaches a point when these crisis can no longer be managed because there are too many and they become too big.

To my mind, Brexit in ripping up the certainty of the EU could be the tipping point.

A national crisis over Brexit is part of a pattern. It's not in isolation.

At what point does it all break down?

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RedToothBrush · 12/09/2017 23:11

Steve Peers @ stevepeers
If this thread is correct UK govt is exceptionally stupid. Yet again: the Commission isn't on a frolic of its own negotiating Brexit.
[Refers to leave alliance thread]
2 Negotiation mandate for Commission was agreed by EU27 govts unanimously - following unanimous agreement on negotiation guidelines.
3 Why would EU27, having agreed to negotiate as a bloc (as EU law requires) suddenly start walking off individually to talk to UK?
4 Davis predicted EU27 would talk to him individually last year. They didn't. Merkel and car companies would beg for a deal. They didn’t.
5 If the UK govt wants - as it should - a sensible post Brexit transition period, there's a route open to negotiate one with the EU
6 UK shouldn't just accept EU terms on a transition deal (or anything else) if it has good reason to object. It sometimes does. So negotiate
7 But asking for transition deal on the basis of a fantasy scenario that EU has consistently rejected for 15 months is literally delusional.
8 Using this as an excuse to walk away from talks would be grossly cynical. The process is what it is. A deal is hugely in the UK's interest
9 Remember: Leave side won on the basis of promising a free trade deal after Brexit. When May talked about "no deal" she lost her majority.
10 Walking away from the talks on the basis of lies and fantasies would vastly multiply the lies and fantasies told during the referendum.
11 Let's be clear: if this happens it's on the government. Not Remainers. Not the EU. Not the opposition (except fools who back the govt).
12 Not on liberal Leavers either, who talk 80% good sense. If Shakespeare were alive today, he'd write "Leave's Liberals Lost". A tragedy.
13 Maybe the intel isn't accurate. Who knows. But it's best to raise the alarm just in case. Parliament must block govt's power to do this
14 That's it. Sorry, it was more than the planned two tweets. Surprised I made it to the end without breaking my no swearing rule against cu

If my grimness tonight bothers people, note that 'someone', whoever they might be, seems to be trying to head this off with political shenanigans in the back rooms via leaks.

Nameless and faceless.

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woman11017 · 12/09/2017 23:15

Many pensioners, also red were the trade union members of the 1960s and 70s who fought for equal rights, decent work conditions, welfare and the rest of it.

If any one is a 'them' it's those in that Chris Bryant identified, and they're in league with the fascists and ultra capitalists organising this shit storm.

But it is looking a bit sticky.

RedToothBrush · 12/09/2017 23:21

www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-northern-ireland-41232991
Brexit: Airships could patrol Irish border, says think tank

James Felting @JimMFelton
Siri, show me an obvious sign a country has lost its fucking mind.

We should stop remoaning. We all voted for drones patrolling borders like we're in the fucking Hunger Games.

The vote was "remain" or "leave and also drone guards". Anyone who remembers otherwise is part of project fear

Dystopian fiction meet Reality. Reality meet dystopian fiction.

It's the reverse of the sci-fi visions that brought about socially progressive change in reality.

I think I need some sleep don't I?

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RedToothBrush · 12/09/2017 23:26

Ffs the leave alliance is tweeting again. And they are slow at tweeting.

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BigChocFrenzy · 12/09/2017 23:29

What next ?
Hunter Killer drones patrolling all UK borders Wink .... to stop you escaping

woman11017 · 12/09/2017 23:32

Grin I need some sleep don't I

Shakespeare nicked some daft plots, I'm afraid even this would be too daft for him.

Brexit: Airships could patrol Irish border, says think tank

I blame hallucinogens, as in these fuckwits never took any to expand their tiny consciousness.

It's magic mushroom season, how about making some magic tea for the eejits in chief, and sending them on a 5 year retreat.

BigChocFrenzy · 12/09/2017 23:35

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/sep/12/unite-boss-len-mccluskey-we-could-break-law-to-strike

Len McCluskey has threatened to break the law over the government’s failure to scrap the public sector pay cap for all workers

RedToothBrush · 12/09/2017 23:35

Leave alliance

  1. Whatever the May speech does contain we know it is going to be a major and unexpected intervention.
  2. Why would the EU delay the talks if it was just a minor Maybot speech? They know something big is going down & have cleared the decks.
  3. Downing Street said the decision had been reached in order to afford negotiators the "flexibility to make progress" when talks resume.
  4. If May isn't going to make any concessions on the 3 core issues (and knows it), what does she have planned? Nothing on the schedule.
  5. We have seen nothing of substance on the financial settlement and nothing worth speaking of on Northern Ireland either.
  6. There is every reason to expect something major and something outside of the agreed sequence. This is calculated.
  7. It certainly fits with the behaviour we have seen thus far, refusing to engage in the process and creating decoys.
  8. We also know that May is not in command. She will go along with whatever she is spoon-fed.
  9. In this, half the cabinet are in thrall to Legatum Institute and they have near exclusive access. And they're insane.
10. Falconer has already called to leave the EEA so we can have that "bonfire of regulations". Tories want this first and foremost. 11. Legatum is pretty much calling the shots on this. The cabinet have outsourced all of their Brexit "thinking". 12. May will be doing no strategic thinking of her own. She doesn't even understand the basic components of the EU - or Brexit dynamics. 13. This is a lady who does not do detail and does not take concepts on board. She's trapped and she is a puppet. Totally helpless. 14. So is it plausible that she would announce something completely dangerous and unhinged? Oh hells yes! 15. She wouldn't even know what she was looking at let alone understand the risks. She is not calling the shots. 16. Even her Lancaster House speech was dictated to her - and that was counter to her previous rhetoric. 17. Moreover, what we have heard today seems consistent with the combative and suspicious attitude we have seen from Davis and Co. 18. Rather than engage in good faith, a hostile act seems more plausible than a general announcement. This does not smell good at all.

Article on The Legatum Institute
edition.independent.co.uk/editions/uk.co.independent.issue.120917/data/7940836/index.html

There is also a link to the legatum position on this in leave alliance first thread but I'm on my phone and can't link here tonight.

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RedToothBrush · 12/09/2017 23:37

Fwiw if we've seen this coming a mile off for months, you can bet that the EU has too.

Timing just before the Tory conference? May would have done this in July as planned but for that darned Election. We all saw it.

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RedToothBrush · 12/09/2017 23:39

And with that I'm off to bed.

I have a 4.30am start to run DH to the airport. Joy.

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woman11017 · 12/09/2017 23:40

drive safe red.

mathanxiety · 13/09/2017 06:42

Pah. Blimps patrolling the border? Have they seen the cloud cover?

Do they realise what they used to have in place patrolling the border?
Example:
fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2016/07/01/103761022-GettyImages-52181452.530x298.jpg?v=1467389809

This installation was still in operation in 2005:
www.euractiv.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2017/08/Irish-border-800x450.jpg
British Army watchtower post 'Golf One Zero' at Preeve Keernan in South Armagh, Northern Ireland, Monday 01 August, 2005.

Note radio tower, fortification, heavy duty weapon.

And there was still smuggling of goods and weapons and personnel when the border was fully manned.

HesterThrale · 13/09/2017 07:08

The Govt won the vote to topload all committees with Tories, by 320 to 301.
God. This is so undemocratic.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-41245903

BigChocFrenzy · 13/09/2017 07:13

(European trade journal - GRIM) Comment – It’s time to face up to the prospect of Brexit Armageddon

http://www.borderlex.eu/comment-its-time-to-face-up-to-the-prospect-of-brexit-armageddon/

The frequently used term “cliff edge” is too mild to describe the scenario that is gradually unfolding before us:

+Weeks and months of lockdown at ports in Dover, Calais, Antwerp, or Rotterdam

+Rotting food products waiting for certification or approval for exports

+Hundreds of thousands of cross border business contracts disrupted and in limbo

+A massive surge in unemployment as business lay off personnel – EU nationals, but also British personnel – due to the sudden business crunch

+A resurgence of violence in Ireland and at the very least a major diplomatic spat with Dublin

+The Home Office increasing the number of random expulsion notes to hundreds of thousands of EU nationals who have legally resided in Britain for years

+Employers dismissing EU nationals, banks shutting down EU nationals’ accounts, landlords kicking out their EU national tenants

+A further surge in hate crime, possibly deadly riots, and continued rise in police violence

+More than one million British citizens across the EU subject to the generally restrictive national immigration laws of member states applying to non EU citizens

+UK and EU courts clogged with cases brought by businesses and citizens against violations of their rights

+Massive capital flight, a further plunge to the British pound, possibly financial crisis
.....
It’s time to change tack:

either Britain pulls itself together suddenly,

or the EU must prepare for the prospect of having to handle a big neighbour
– once a liberal Empire and a happy open minded nation
descending into illiberalism and economic and social chaos.
.....
British dysfunction

Most EU positions in the negotiations make sense.

The problem is that the EU is dealing with a counterpart that cannot currently be seen as rational,
but with a state that is heading towards possible implosion.
....
the process of reckoning with reality
is making the radical Brexit wing of the Tory party more angry, more authoritarian, more roguish.

.....
The EU could have a massive human rights situation to tackle as the rights of millions of citizens are potentially not upheld.
....
It’s the Tories uber alles
......
The EU cannot just apply its usual legal mechanics to the UK.
It should now harness the problem unless it comes back to haunt Brussels and leading EU capitals.
And it should start doing it now.

Badders08 · 13/09/2017 07:27

Jesus suffering fuck.....