Westminstenders: The wrong homework

[HashiAsLarry]

I'm no rtb but I'll give it a shot, though her efforts deserve much more than me.

The August negotiation round has, well, fizzled out in much the same way as any other. It's taken over a year to get to written position papers and there's still no clue as to a direction from the UK government.

Japan, meanwhile, is about to sign off on a deal with the EU. A deal we want to copy.

@faisalislam
^but if post brexit britain's trade deal with third biggest economy in world is to be based on Brussels' deal, what about rest? TTIP? Canada?
...when PM signs off statements like this on primacy of EU-third party deals, one wonders how temporary the temporary customs union will be^

The NHS is now launching a drive to recruit foreign GPs, like the ones that have left thanks to Brexit. It's a good job they'll be £350m a week better off now. Oh hang on...

whatwould - I don't want to side track the thread away from Brexit and vegetable cakes but it's just not true that "Few developed economies treat those who bring skills and experience and / or support the family life of it's citizens in such a way........" (I know, I've been on the receiving end of a couple of different visa application processes, as well as what I know from the experience of friends, family and colleagues) And if your friend was living and working in the UK but had to leave in order to apply for residency from outside the UK, that rather implies that s/he was in breach of the terms of their tourist visa.

Do we have a plan for walking away from negotiations? I doubt it very much. That would mean admitting that the world might not be waiting to sign multiple trade deals with us so that the unicorns can flow freely and we all get our share of rainbow dust

Olenna No these friends were working in multinational corporations in (different) home countries which were willing to move their roles so that they could marry and live with the people they had fallen in love with but certainly not to have them move those roles back and forth at the behest of the Home Office. So they came here on annual leave, on an ordinary tourist visa to marry and then had to go home to apply to be with their spouses longer term . Why the sudden jumping to suspicion of anyone seeking to come and live here? Why automatically assume they must be pulling a fast one? This is not just one friend, I know several working for companies like Microsoft and UBS, and it is shocking to people who work in these multinationals that the UK puts up so many barriers. I too moved countries to somewhere that is very restrictive of immigration generally but for someone with a job it was a two page form and a parallel form for the employer to justify not filling the role locally, it took less than a week after we arrived to get a 5 year temporary residency stamp in our passports which automatically becomes permanent residency not tied to employment after nine years.

It is relevant to Brexit because that culture in the Home Office is the reason behind Mays stubborn prioritisation of ending Freedom of Movement. It is also going to be extremely damaging to Britain's ability to survive economically in the global economy outside the EU if we continue to treat everyone who wants to come here and contribute to our economy, science, health service and family life with barriers that convey such suspicion and contempt.

Another example of how self harming it is today in the SCMP, visa arrangements for students from our single biggest market for education at all levels have been outsourced to an agency who are failing to process them not just within the promised time but in time for them to take up their places involving them in hassle and cost and the possibility of losing their places completely. Previous attempts to contact the Home office were being ignored. www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/education-community/article/2109387/visa-delays-put-hong-kong-students-places-british

So they came here on annual leave, on an ordinary tourist visa to marry and then had to go home to apply to be with their spouses longer term

But there are very very few places where you can enter the country as a tourist and then "switch" in-country and decide you want to stay there long-term. There are arguments for and against allowing it, but the UK isn't significantly out of step by saying that tourist visas are for people who want to visit and then leave the country.

VFS handle the submission of visa applications but not the decision-making. Every year there are problems with HK students (I think their exam results come out later than most other places?). It's cuts that have meant that decisions are not made locally any more, but back in the UK. Another consequence of the ideological drive to reduce the public sector

Olenna These people were advised that they would face separation eventually, like the couple in the Guardian article whether they stayed six months on a fiancee visa, or came for three weeks. I note on the page on the fiancee visa there is not, as the couple highlighted, any mention of having to reapply from outside. It is the labyrinthine arrangements that piss the world off, and that is our reputation in global job markets.....

Nearly as good as the discovery that alcohol helps your body absorb vitamin C

Not sure this is correct - taking vitamin C before a big night out can help with hangover prevention, but regular alcohol intake inhibits the pancreas from absorbing vitamin C (and can lead to pancreatitis - ouch).

Not quite brexit related, but Vince Cable's snarkiness on twitter has been highly amusing me of late.

This isn't snarky but on a personal note the last part of this sentence has won me over. Though its also not widely recognised in women either.
Met @AdhdRichmond speaking for 400 local parents. Raising awareness of serious condition not widely recognised especially amongst girls.

Back on brexit, here's 10 own goals in UKs position papers by huff post
Not the most literary but its nearly midnight on Friday

From the German press - their view of Brexit.

international.sueddeutsche.de/post/164858513755/great-britains-fantastic-four

May, with her "with darting eyes".

Ouch

(paywall) ‘The Brits are dawdling and clueless’- German media lashes out at UK Brexit strategy

< Gives a good flavour of what the German press have beeen saying over the last several months.
btw, even now Brexit is not the main story - just not regarded as v important here

• and Brexiters are stilll fantasizing / relying on German pressure >

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/01/brits-dawdling-clueless-german-media-lashes-uk-brexit-strategy/

German newspapers blasted Theresa May’s Brexit strategy as “clueless”

this week, as they weighed in to a deepening row between London and Brussels over the so-called Brexit bill,
which has left the talks in deadlock.

The UK government is refusing to hand over an “extortionate” financial settlement of up to 100 billion euros
as it wants to discuss future trade arrangements first.

However, the timetabling of the negotiations
– which were drawn up by the EU –
< and which DD agreed to, big climbdown from his "row of the summer" posturing >

demand that “sufficient progress” be made on
citizens’ rights,
the question of the Irish border
and the financial settlement before any deal can be done.
< i.e. prioritizing what A50 requires before moving on to the UK fantasies / wishlist >

Now, one of Germany’s most prominent newspapers has published a scathing editorial
which accuses Mrs May and her team of being “clueless” about the complexities of the Brexit process.

Suddeutsche Zeitung painted
a gloomy picture of the UK team’s ability to go toe-to-toe with some of the EU’s most formidable officials,
dismissing them as venal, and disorganised.

The headline of the article:
“Theresa May and her team stumble cluelessly into Brexit”

Theresa May’s leadership of the government was so weak that it was “almost impossible” that she would lead the Conservatives into the next election, it said.

As for David Davis, he was “extraordinarily lazy” according to one of his former advisers,”
the newspaper said, adding that his
alleged short working week of “three or four days” was “not ideal.”

The paper had even harsher words for Boris Johnson, the Foreign Secretary,
who is “not taken seriously by his advisors”
and “seen as a joke in the White House.”
< quite an achievement with sick joke Trump around >

“This is a somewhat unfavourable situation for a country that wants to cultivate new and old alliances in the face of Brexit,”

It concluded by saying that
*Liam Fox, the secretary for international trade,
was “the least serious” of the team,
< i.e. worst of the worst >
which it
collectively referred to as a “laughing stock.”

‘Dawdling Brits block Brexit talks’

Bild, a German tabloid, blamed the British for the deadlock in the negotiations.

In a small piece on page two of the paper on Friday,^
< note the low importance of brexit >^

it quoted Michel Barnier, the EU’s Brexit negotiator,
who complained that Britain was trying to leave the single market and cling on to benefits of single market membership at the time.

This demand, Mr Barnier said, was “impossible to fulfill.”

It follows a similar piece on Bild’s website on 28 August which also reveled in the onomatopoeic phrase “Bummel Briten).

“Brüssel-Rüffel für Bummel-Briten
(Dawdling Britain given dressing down by Brussels)”
was the headline on that occasion.

‘UK an island of illusions’

< "delusional" UK has been prominent in German opinion ever since they realized that demanding unicorn cake was official govt policy >

An article in Der Freitag on 26 August
mocked David Davis’ claim that the talks were going “incredibly well”
and said *
Britain was suffering from delusions of exceptionalism.
*
“There is a widespread illusion that Great Britain is an extraordinary country,
and that therefore the Europeans must get it what it wants,”*
one extract from the piece reads.
< it's called being ridiculously entitled. Unfortunately the government & many voters really think like this >

Whereas the European elite drew its strength from technical expertise, Britain’s “Oxbridge elite” relied on rhetoric instead, according to Der Freitag.

“Playing with national illusions is one of their core businesses”

The Sky link posted yesterday says:
We are leaving the European Union. Suggesting we won't is a Remainer fantasy. It would poison the well of democratic politics forever if we didn't.

I would not 100% bank on that - if we have a transition arrangement for a few years, and parties, esp Labour shift on their Brexit stance, we could see the whole thing 'paused' indefinitely, particularly as the electorate changes with predominantly Leave voters dying and new pro EU voters coming onto the electoral roll.

Don't be fooled: Brexit Britain wants a deal. Europe just wants a clean break.

Oh yes, Britain wants a deal alright - same as we had before, but not pay, and not have FoM or the jurisdiction of the ECJ. Dressed up maybe as a 'new' relationship - so e.g. not in the customs union, but with a deal struck which allow us to enjoy benefits of the Customs Union.

"Transition" means the period after Brexit

So, if the public really had a major change of opinion, it would mean applying to join, as a new member.
It is unlikely that the EU would be keen after years of hassle from the UK basically always wanting just trade - they'd probably suggest EEA/EFTA instead

What is possible is a time extension for A50, but the UK excluded from the 2019 EU Parliament elections - they really want rid of Farage & co and also fear the UK would deliberately block all business there to get better Brexit terms

It would be possible that an extension might drift into Remain - the E27 are much more likely to agree to that, than to rejoining after a messy Brexit.

It would be possible that an extension might drift into Remain - the E27 are much more likely to agree to that, than to rejoining after a messy Brexit.

Yes, this is the key, and the reason Brexiteers in cabinet are fighting tooth and nail to limit the "transition".

I've just come back from a long trip to Europe, and it is beyond depressing. Everyone I met was sympathetic (they basically feel sorry for us), but also supportive of the EU negotiating stance. So depressing to see the amazing infrastructure and planning (both urban and rural) in Northern Europe, and the way they welcome highly-skilled foreigners with open arms, even organising special programmes to help them settle (and tax breaks). Why can't we do the same here?

What is possible is a time extension for A50, but the UK excluded from the 2019 EU Parliament elections - they really want rid of Farage & co and also fear the UK would deliberately block all business there to get better Brexit terms

As much as I would welcome this, is it very likely? First, presumably it would require the EU27 to agree to it unanimously. Second, wouldn't the EU then be demonised as giving us taxation without representation?

The UK will no longer be an EU member from 1 minute after A50 expires
So, any "transition" period after Brexit - whether 10 seconds long or 10 years - means applying to rejoin as a new member

I think some in govt are saying "transition" when they mean an extension of the A50 2-year limit

Possibly to avoid the political fury of "delaying" A50 / Brexit
Possibly because they are are totally confused what transition means wrt A50

• it is the period after Brexit, to cushion the effects and allow time to negotiate arrangements in more detail.

lala To avoid the disruption and mutual damage of Brexit - and after an extension that resulted in changed UK attitudes - the E27 would probably agree to the UK Remaining
BUT
once Brexit - and the disruption - has happened, they would be very unwilling to allow the UK back and risk repeating the chaos, the demands for optouts and the resistance to anything that is not trade or security.

The E27 would still prefer the UK to Remain, but still won't dismantle the 4 pillars of the Single Market to do so

I would have thought if they welcomed us back it would be under strict terms and revision of A50 clause would be carried out.

My feeling is that, given current levels of diplomatic engagement, the UK could have burnt its bridges by then . I agree that there seems to be a blurring (perhaps deliberate - no one wants to say that we will be remaining in the EU longer than necessary) between transition and extending of the A50 notice period.

Did anyone notice the Icelandic ambassador in the USA
asking DD at the press conference if the UK was considering the EEA/ EFTA option ?

That is as far as EFTA countries can go - they can't formally invite the UK to apply.
This "casual" question openly indicated they would consider it positively

That sounds like the UK hasn't even approached them yet or Iceland wouldn't be reduced to making such a broad hint in public, via their ambassador

I suspect Barnier & co requested Iceland to do this
< "Do remind those idiots about EFTA / EEA,
so if in 2018 they suddenly notice the cliff edge, they know the EEA / EFTA escape route is open" >

Interesting twitter poll result. Run by a conservative leave campaigner.

That's a very interesting poll, Theworld. I'm starting to wonder whether there is a proportion of Leave voters who'd still really like to leave, but are beginning to believe the leaders of this Government are totally incapable of achieving it in any vaguely effective way. Therefore are going off the idea for now...