My feeling is that the SNP don't want another election so this is crucial to Tory rebels. It gives them a safe cushion.
It means they can threaten to abstain on anything Brexit knowing that the chances are this means there won't be another general election, which is what they are most afraid of. At best this means that it will be a leadership challenge for May.
May doesn't want this. Obviously.
Every time May has been in this situation where she looks like the government will loose a vote, she's backed away from the vote one way or another, either making an announcement or an amendment to a similar effect to what the rebellion sought to achieve.
If Faisal Islam is right about hardline Brexiteers no longer pushing back then that's also significant. The way Davies has been reversing is notable too.
There are not many options left to May as far as I see it. There is EEA (though this might be dressed in a slightly different way and called something different, but in essence it'll be to all intents and purposes EEA) or there is walking out of talks and going down the no deal route (by this I mean a serious attempt at this, rather than the flounce and 'capitulate' to the EU for the benefit of image and the press). That's it, in reality.
Even though Davies is saying 'not EEA' I think that means jack shit. I mean, its not as if Davies hasn't talked anything but bollocks and is finding ever imaginative ways of wording things in a way to make it sound as if he was never into 'no deal is better than a bad deal'.
The 'No Deal' scenario will kill the Conservative Party. The election proved this. Efforts to try and persuade the public that the EU is 'blackmailing' us or 'threatening' us, I'm sure will continue in an effort to try and push that agenda, but unless it gets traction (which I really don't will) I'm not sure it will do anymore than further fracture the country.
The reality is that 'BEANO Brexit' or 'not-EEA honest' are currently the most likely scenarios given the maths in the Commons and the shift in position by Labour. Labour, the SNP and even the LDs will ultimately settle for either.
I do think if May does try and revert to 'not-listening May', and tries push a ridiculous plan on the Tory rebels or comes up with some nonsense that is not acceptable to Scotland in general (covers the SNP and the Tories), then that's when things will get interesting. I do think you would see defections or rebellions in that situation.
The bottomline is, I think May is too chicken to take that risk now. She's spineless but likes to appear, and 'give the feeling' of being tough. She'll try and push it as far as she can, but will also back away in the end. It depends on how resolute the Tory rebels are to the bullshit and how far they are prepared to be pushed. My gut feeling at this point, is not very far, as they can see BEANO or EEA as realistic and achievable. I can't seem them making many concessions away from that.
This also allows the Brexiteers a way out, saving their face whilst able to blame it on others, all the while knowing that actually this is the best option they have and that, yeah actually, they misjudged Brexit without having to actually admit it. The less they actively push back, and only give half hearted criticisms of rebel tories, the more you know that's happening. You will get up with only a small number of Tory hardliners doing this imho.
The other point here is that you have the likes of Liam Fox more concerned now about demonstrating they have a point and that they should keep their job. Which leaves any vocal pain in the backside hardline Brexiteers firmly on the back bench. Gove doesn't want to go back there. Johnson, doesn't like his job, but he still wants a crack at the leadership and that's more important to both than Brexit. Davies is between that rock and a hard place. Lower Brexiteer ministers like Raab are backing away from Brexit slowly, and equally are sniffing out a leadership bid in the future. IDS is a Labour target for the next election. Don't expect a Tory to stick their neck out for Brexit in the short term if they have serious leadership ambitions. They will want to bide their time and see how its panning out first.
Wait for 'we thought EEA was a good idea during the referendum' position to appear...
I'm not betting against the tough speech threatening to walk out of talks, or saying we actually are (possibly actually doing this). You'd expect in late September / October, just before the Tory conference. Of course this will be followed by a swift resumption and full on pursuit of EEA straight after.
I won't be at all surprised if this is what has been said privately to Europe off the record, and Verhofstadt is stirring the shit about this mysterious speech that isn't being talked about in the British press.