Westminstenders: The wrong homework

[HashiAsLarry]

I'm no rtb but I'll give it a shot, though her efforts deserve much more than me.

The August negotiation round has, well, fizzled out in much the same way as any other. It's taken over a year to get to written position papers and there's still no clue as to a direction from the UK government.

Japan, meanwhile, is about to sign off on a deal with the EU. A deal we want to copy.

@faisalislam
^but if post brexit britain's trade deal with third biggest economy in world is to be based on Brussels' deal, what about rest? TTIP? Canada?
...when PM signs off statements like this on primacy of EU-third party deals, one wonders how temporary the temporary customs union will be^

The NHS is now launching a drive to recruit foreign GPs, like the ones that have left thanks to Brexit. It's a good job they'll be £350m a week better off now. Oh hang on...

I'm still surprised that, so far, the law on whether A50 can be revoked or not hasn't been clarified through the courts, Hester. It would be pretty gutting to get to the stage of a broad enough consensus wanting it reversed and then the ECJ declaring it couldn't be...

Possible leadership challenge? Hmm - they would need to find a strong candidate. So far we have had a lot of noise from them but, Ken Clarke excepted, they have dutifully trooped through the Government lobby when it comes to a vote.

But - that was before the election, and a few MPs then, like mine in a Remain constituency, found when they chose not to represent the views of their constituents, that their Parliamentary careers were unexpectedly curtailed. Others like Amber Rudd hung on by a whisker, which must have limited any Leadership ambitions for her.

It would be pretty gutting to get to the stage of a broad enough consensus wanting it reversed and then the ECJ declaring it couldn't be...

I think the issue is political rather than legal. It's clear that A50 can be reversed with the agreement of the other EU27. The question is, to what extent can we do it unilaterally? And are the conditions be if we decide to stop the process, same as before? Or something less favourable to be negotiated?

Sorry, that should say: what will the conditions be...

‏ @britainelects 8h8 hours ago
LAB: 43% (+2)
CON: 38% (-1)
LDEM: 7% (-1)
UKIP: 4% (-2)

Possible leadership challenge? Hmm - they would need to find a strong candidate.

Yup, this appears to be the conservatives big problem. The fact that they are even considering Moggy shows the lack of decent leadership potential on offer right now. My view since the election has been that the only reason May is still in number 10 is that they just can't agree on a credible alternative. The conference is going to be a matter of life and death for May I think. She has to show that despite fucking up everything she touches she is still the least worst option on offer.

Political leaders never announce their intention to stick around if they're not under pressure.

Timing will be crucial. There's no way anyone would step up before Brexit because of the risk of it all falling flat on its face. Better to stick that on the plate of someone who's not going to fight another election.

This leaves up to three years, which is long enough for a new incumbent to fuck up and the honeymoon to wear off. So I would expect a handover around 2020 or another early election. Given the current state of the polls, a 2% bounce from a new leader combined with a competent campaign will be enough to take the Tories over the line.

There is also the possible issue of May having unwittingly set a precedent in calling an election on her leadership: any new PM may come under pressure to demonstrate a mandate. Brown bottled it, and this seemed to be a factor in his downfall. (Although the whole Labour project was pretty clapped out by that point, and it was hard to see how anyone could have rebooted it).

Theresa May was warned by campaign guru Sir Lynton Crosby that her gamble of calling a snap general election carried "a lot of risk", a leaked memo has revealed

A Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday put Labour on 43 per cent, a five-point lead over the Tories on 38 per cent

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-warned-lynton-crosby-snap-general-election-a7926596.html

Putting on points since Starmer's statement.

Hope lots of remain labour MPs are on the coming marches in Manchester, Leeds and London.

Clear explanation / status_
31 Aug "Speech by Michel Barnier at the press conference following the third round of Article 50 negotiations with the United Kingdom"

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-releaseSPEECH-17-30433_en.htm

expat negotiations comparison of EU / UK on remaining issues:
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/jointtableecitizensrightss-thirdd_round.pdf

All negotiating docs:

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/brexit-negotiations/negotiating-documents-article-50-negotiations-united-kingdom_en

The EU commission publishes a lot of info which causes anger to a UK Establishment used to maintaining power & control by restricting public info

It's not that the EU only publishes info about Brexit though - it publishes about most of its work, but I at least only learned that last year

Not sure if this has been posted, but it's the 'Nutshell' guide:
jackofkent.com/brexit-negotiations-resource-page/

May is reported to be safe, because all Tories are terrified that a new leader could mean a new GE and that Corbyn would win
Some Tory MPs fear losing their seats

Brexiters fear additionally that Labour would soften, postpone and maybe even finally cancel Brexit

Of course, she could be toppled by cockup

I don't think that five point lead is significant yet. Need probably another half dozen polls before one can take it seriously.

Actually, this page is helpful: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
Polling is basically flat since the election, probably because there's no campaign ongoing.

Of course, she could be toppled by cockup

What's the deal on votes of no confidence? Given the rather tenuous Tory majority could we end up with a vote of no confidence over brexit combined with NI issues that would force another election? I realise that this is pretty unlikely due to the DUP not exactly being labours biggest fans, but was wondering how it could work hypothetically. Possibly labour could use it as a lever to put some pressure on moderate Tories and push for a second brexit vote.

I know, I know, unicorns and cuckoo land, but anything seems possible over the next year.

Funny how tories wanted JC as leader, now it suits labour to have May.

Labour numbers benefit from DD and her being in the news.

Tory conference could do wonders for labour's polling.

FTA mitigates agains VONC, atm, I think bigly but interesting times, as ever.

Just need labour to back Remain.

This poll was asking the wrong question, but interesting results anyway.

Well, yes. If I say disagree it doesn't say whether that is because I support a hard Brexit or because I don't support any brexit at all, even a softer one.

There is another - potentially more back-stabby - way to trigger a leadership challenge (from the Observer, posted upthread):

One former cabinet minister told the Observer that May’s determination to cling on to office, and her hardline position on Brexit, would “definitely” trigger letters to Graham Brady, chairman of the backbench 1922 committee, over coming weeks. If 15% of Tory MPs write to Brady expressing no confidence in her, a leadership contest has to be called.

By my calculations, that would take 45-50 MPs willing to throw over TM which seems unlikely. But I'm assuming that doing it this way has the benefit of anonymity - the letters remain between the MPs and Graham Brady - so it might prompt a few, otherwise cowardly MPs to take action. Tbh, if only 25-30 letters were received, it would be bound to be leaked and TM would be toast - or should be, remember JC hanging tough after 170-odd of his MPs rebelled against him?

Oh, I didn't know about that lala. I think she would be toast. Corbyn faced a rebellion of MPs, but had the overwhelming support of the membership, which is why he knew he could hang on as long as he got his name on the ballot. I don't see that May has that grassroots support to rely on should the MPs turn against her.

Has anyone watched Marr this morning? I hear on Twitter it had Starmer and Davis on. I am a bit disappointed by what I have read of what Starmer has said as it seems to still be very much in unicorn cake territory. It is hard to tell from isolated tweets though, so I would be interested to hear your views if you saw it?

That poll about not enough people writing to their MPs about BRexit made me realise that I haven't corresponded with mine on this.

Can anyone point me in the direction of a template email to send to my MP about not crashing out without a deal, not leaving the SM and CU etc? I've had a quick google and this is the only thing that I can find that's relevant but I've probably not looked in the right places!

Dear MP,

I am writing to you as a constituent to ask you for your views on the following regarding Britain's new relationship with Europe:

1. Will you support Parliament having the final say over a new deal with the EU, and oppose crashing out with no deal?

1. Will you oppose a Brexit deal that will make your constituents poorer?

1. Will you support the rights of EU nationals who work hard for the benefit of Britain to live and work in the UK?

It's a bit weak for me; I don't want to know his views - he's made it abundantly clear that he's for the "hardest" Brexit possible - I want him to register my dissent of them but am aware that I'm essentially wanting to copy and paste my views

I don't think you have to ask for his views. You could say something along the lines of:

"I have become increasingly alarmed at your stance on the EU, you seem to be advocating an extreme Brexit which will undoubtedly leave your constitutents (give examples of any industries or organisations in the area that are reliant on exports or migrant workers) and the country as a whole poorer and with fewer rights.

"I would like your reassurances that you will support a vote in Parliament on the final deal - and not simply on whether to accept the deal or walk away with nothing - and that you will do everything within your power to support the right for EU nationals to stay in this country and have their rights* respected."

Just try to keep it brief - you're probably not going to persuade him but, if enough people write, you may make him nervous .

*I realise that I have over-used the word "rights", feel free to adapt.

Matthew Holehouse @ Mattholehouse
Exec from FedEx asks David Davis to explain how DExEU's track 'n trace custom regime will work in practice. It's "blue-sky", says DD.

How many sniggers can you find in this tweet.