Westminsterenders: The Ersatz ImitationThread

[OlennasWimple]

I am no RedToothBrush, so I'm not going to try to emulate her exception OP style.

Here, though, in the interests of carrying on our conversations about WTF is going on with Brexit and the weird political world we find ourselves in right now, is a sort of continuation thread

(Hurry back Red, we need you!)

In the link it does say Rudd wants a transitional arrangement...

But, as DD is finding out, no one in teh EU really gives a toss what Amber Rudd - or anyone from the UK want.

This is the reality of Brexit starting to bite. Loads of ministers all yapping like baby birds for a tiny morsel of something to make their lives easier.

I've become a lot more relaxed over Brexit the more I read the increasingly desperate rantings of Leavers telling me "how it's going to be". It's starting to sound very familiar .... like how England are going to win the World Cup this time.

"This is the reality of Brexit starting to bite. "

I agree LH, this is exactly what is happening, and they can't hide the consequences any longer. In September a lot of businesses will have to make detailed plans (18 months ahead), and things will get really interesting at that point.

In September a lot of businesses will have to make detailed plans (18 months ahead)

Last year, my employer had to make 3 year and five year plans ...

There was a Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) report in June 2016. Today's announcement looks to be an extension of this report in the context of leaving the EU rather than starting from scratch.

"Immigration (630,000) is presently over double emigration (297,000). And half of the immigration inflow – 308,000 – is work-related, a record figure. Analysis of this workrelated
migration since 2008 by the MAC suggests three main conclusions: migration flows are heavily influenced by other polices; skilled migrants yield positive benefits; and enforcement of minimum standards is vital to ensure our flexible labour market boosts the welfare of British residents.
First, immigration does not occur in a vacuum. Numbers are heavily influenced by other public and employer policies. Consider two examples. In the private sector employers have invested too little in the STEM and IT skills of UK residents. Hence the constant pleas for such jobs to be given priority in immigration. It is to be hoped
that higher migrant pay thresholds and the immigration skills charge will encourage much greater investment in British workers’ human capital. In the public sector there is a potential trade-off between spending levels and immigration. Constraints on public spending often generate greater immigration. Examples include nurses, paramedics, care sector and science and maths teachers.
Next, as compared with less skilled workers, skilled migrants are much more likely to be complementary to British labour and capital. They contribute, net, to productivity, the public finances and the employment prospects of local labour. Finally, low skilled migration benefits labour intensive UK employers and most such
migrants. But there is also evidence of downward pressure on the pay of low skilled workers and – in the worst examples – serious exploitation of migrant, and possibly UK, labour. Therefore it is crucial that minimum labour standards are enforced. Alas, evidence suggests that in pursuing our flexible labour market – which has mostly served us well – such enforcement is inadequate. Incomplete supervision holds for the national minimum wage, labour gangs (particularly in horticulture) and employment agencies for migrants. It is to be hoped that the new Director of Labour
Market Enforcement – established by the 2016 Immigration Act – enhances fuller compliance via both its regulation effort and stronger penalties."

www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/547697/MAC-_report_immigration_and_the_labour_market.pdf

Re trade agreements with the US and agriculture worth bearing in mind that Canada has the same issues. CETA, I think, currently excludes chicken and beef is excluded unless hormone free. I think there are ongoing negotiations on harmonisation / equivalence of other regulations.

He was being given a mildly hard time on BBCR4 this morning.

I sort of zoned out when he told us what the vote to leave "meant", because no one knows what the vote to leave meant beyond a vote to leave.

You know that Sherlock Holmes line about "from a drop of water one could deduce the existence of an ocean" ?

From a simple referendum vote it appears to be possible to divine Gods intent as he looked on His creation.

As usual, none of my popular European sources seems to have anything about Brexit on the front pages.

It's almost as it it's of little import to them.

What was it Wilde said about being talked about ?

I have written a very harsh letter to my local Labour Party. Just short of using swear words really.
Can I ask everyone to do the same please? We need a flood of reactions to Labour NOW. We really do. I still believe some of the damage is done forever and I still believe we must follow the money trail to check what and who benefited from this shambles.

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/labour-could-change-brexit-stance-10871230.amp

This article is probably the first ever clear indication I have seen from Labour side to accept the wind has shifted on Leave:Remain being 52:48 (which is very stupid as it is literally no mandate but we are living in such strange times!).
I think it is time to hit hard. Please write to everyone you can think of.

www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-corbyn-labour-time-to-make-his-mind-up-a7861271.html

I have already written - twice - to my (Labour) MP, and another time to the local constituency.

No replies as of yet.

Hardly encouraging.

Labour changing its stance on Brexit right now would be political suicide and have the Tories shouting about the democratic will of the people and all that, so I think Labour playing the long game, albeit with a few mistakes, is the right way to go. There were already choices for the remain vote in the GE and surprisingly few people voted on that alone, I'm hoping Labour swoop in with a Remain stance once the political will is because dear god rational people dont need/want Brexit

Thinking about it, its not even the political will its a lot to do with keeping the MSM at bay, same with our drug policy in this country based on nothing but fear of the MSM and the soft on crime headline

With the kind of support Labourhas in the youth no even among under 40s, I think there is no way they will commit a suicide by this now.
On the other hand, Tories are as good as dead now, with or without Brexit.
So we might as well save the country while we can.

I don't think we will get responses from them at this stage.

Once the word gets about amongst Leavers that Immigration won't fall significantly, will a number of them change their minds and ask, "What's the point of leaving?"

Once the word gets about amongst Leavers that Immigration won't fall significantly, will a number of them change their minds and ask, "What's the point of leaving?"

Except, of course, apparently "it wasn't all about immigration" ....

Thinking about it, its not even the political will its a lot to do with keeping the MSM at bay, same with our drug policy in this country based on nothing but fear of the MSM and the soft on crime headline

as I've said, the British don't like evidence based policies ...

To sum up:

• Amber Rudd say there won't be a cliff edge after Mar 2019

• Less than 24h later Lewis says FOM will stop after Mar 2019, but a new immigration system will be in place by then

• Lewis doesn't have a clue can't give any details about the system , except that a white paper will go through Parliament in 2018, before the report on the costs and benefit of EU migration is released.

Have I missed anything?

You hVENt missed anything.
What they are going to do is to print the old policy on a new paper and tell everyone this is the new one.
I doubt there won't be loads eh o will believe them. Afterall, they are the government and supposed to take care of us.

a new immigration system will be in place by then

I call bollocks. To be honest 10 years would be a squeeze, let alone less than 10 months.

And who is going to work on this unscoped project ?

My Mother came round yesterday and told me she was a Brexiteer , which I knew anyway , I managed to keep a civil tongue in my head , I work for the NHS . Sometimes I just want to cry