Westminsterenders: The Ersatz ImitationThread

[OlennasWimple]

I am no RedToothBrush, so I'm not going to try to emulate her exception OP style.

Here, though, in the interests of carrying on our conversations about WTF is going on with Brexit and the weird political world we find ourselves in right now, is a sort of continuation thread

(Hurry back Red, we need you!)

I live at the top of a hill which is one of the highest points for miles.

I'm not sure that really helps me, if I can't get anywhere though.

This FT articles is intriguing if true:

www.ft.com/content/06251f4e-7d1a-11e7-ab01-a13271d1ee9c
Theresa May’s cabinet split three ways over Brexit transition
Even hardline group including Fox is said to accept the need for pragmatic approach

Group 1: Hammond, Rudd, Gavin Williamson (chief whip) Michael Fallon. - 'The Sensibles'
Group 2: Fox - The Republican Party and the smallest group
Group 3: May, Green, Davis and Gove - The Nutters

“I think the majority of cabinet ministers want a smooth Brexit. I think the difference is they’re disagreeing what counts as Brexit.”

Some ministers suspect that the vision of Brexit outlined by some of Mr Hammond’s group may not be in line with the mandate from the referendum result.

Many people in Whitehall have remarked that Mr Davis and Mr Gove, who both backed Leave in last year’s EU referendum, have become markedly more cautious as they come to grips with the challenges of disentangling Britain from the EU.

Gove has been spotted on holiday in Germany with George. They are doing a week of going to the opera.

As you do...
What exactly did the referendum result say? Do enlighten me as I thought the question was a yes / no one.

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/refugee-rescue-boat-anti-immigrant-c-star-ship-mediterranean-defend-europe-mechanical-failure-far-a7887876.html
Refugee rescue boat sent to help far-right anti-immigrant ship stranded in Mediterranean with mechanical failure

Don't you just LOVE news stories like this one?

I would like to see a survey of opinions about climate change and leavers, I bet there would be a correlation there, which would further clarify if they are hard of thinking or not

Does this say enough?

78% of Leavers said the Green Movement was a force for ill.

That's Lord Ashcroft's post referendum survey btw.

Guardian has a spoof piece on Nigel Lawson. Adopting an opinion on whether he exists or not. Like the climate change 'opinions'. I think he was on the radio debating the new climate change movie. He was brought on to balance a learned expert on the subject with many papers to her name. Lawson hadn't seen the movie and had no intention of doing so. What expertise on the subject does he have to bring to the table that he was chosen to debate it? Why are his personal 'gut' views given the same standing as experts in the field? Or the same standing as facts. It was the same with Brexit.

Of course, the flat earthers should be given the same standing as the elliptical earthers. Just two equal opinions on the subject. One as worthy as the other.

www.theguardian.com/science/brain-flapping/2017/aug/11/the-bbc-needs-to-accept-that-nigel-lawson-doesnt-exist-climate-change

Some ministers suspect that the vision of Brexit outlined by some of Mr Hammond’s group may not be in line with the mandate from the referendum result.

What was the mandate?
Leave but belong to the EEA - a solution which Farage was quite happy to espouse at one point.
More money for the NHS? Not going to happen.
Boot out all the Muslims? Never an option but there were certainly some people who thought that would happen.

The only mandate from the referendum was to leave the European Union. Leaving the EU but remaining in the EEA still fulfils the mandate. Unless I had a different ballot paper from everyone else?

It is all wishful thinking. It is like a future where UK is in NAFTA, head of the Commonwealth, and trading on better terms than now with the EU.

The Commonwealth is not a trading bloc. And times have changed. NAFTA is dominated by the US and is 3,000 miles away. Geography trumps (sic). No better terms, only worse. On other thread, new technology inventions and super duper turnouts from schools. All the little Bill Gates and Steve (or Stephanie) Jobs. You have to make the computers or whatever. Schools with possible less funding getting better outcomes? Anything less than a genius will be a thing of the EU membership past. There is a lot hanging on that expectation.

Post- Ref, Lush is helping its workers move to Germany to live and work if they want. British-born have gone, as well as EU migrants.
I feel as though the UK going to lose a lot of good people.

qz.com/1039153/lush-a-great-uk-success-story-is-helping-its-workers-leave-brexit-britain-and-keep-their-jobs/

Any sign of those unicrons yet? We're going to need them, even budget high street stores are feeling the pinch..

www.theguardian.com/business/2017/aug/11/wilko-warns-nearly-4000-staff-could-lose-jobs#comments

oh, and happy holidays..

www.theguardian.com/business/2017/aug/11/brexit-pain-for-holidaymakers-as-pound-set-to-fall-further-against-euro

Has anyone else seen this odd survey?
Really peculiar results.
This Huge New Study Reveals What The British Public Really Wants From Brexit
Exclusive: This groundbreaking study reveals that many Remainers want the UK to have full control of immigration and are less enthusiastic about single market membership.
www.buzzfeed.com/jamesball/remain-and-leave-voters-are-surprisingly-united-on-backing?utm_term=.ag4V0lyw2#.ioBVOPkmy
@CraigGrannell
Craig Grannell Retweeted Faisal Islam
This strikes me as odd – and terrifying. Do 29% of Remain voters want to deport over 3 million people? Seems unlikely.Craig Grannell added,

I think it is high time a bit less importance is given to the so called will of the people and a generous bit more on what they can actually in reality have. That survey shows that people are not very well informed. They seem to think it's fine to have closed borders with NI, they want all kinds of mutually exclusive things. Maybe it's because I'm European but I have a deep and longlasting suspicion of the so called will of the people. Most people want the death penalty, most people are sexist, racist. .. A parliamentary democracy is supposed to shield us from this 'gesunde volksempfinden' but now is the guiding principle? Is fine to survey these opinions of course but it is not fine that there is still not enough intelligent debate on this. ( well, here it is but you lot are a beacon)

woman I think they are plotting the percentage divergence from the neither agree or disagree option on a statement ? ie I suspect they have been given a statement and asked to agree or disagree on a scale with the mid point being Neither agree or disagree and the furthest ends being Strongly agree or Strongly disagree . So I think it is saying that both Remainers and Leavers were ticking the disagree options with Remainers being ticking the more strongly disagree options.

Agree it is misleading though

There's still a number of different ways to read those figures. For example, I could imagine people's first choice to be in the EU, but if you're going to be out, then you may as well have control over your borders etc etc. I suspect people are being asked to choose between these options without the implications being explained.

Sorry. Badly worded but you get the gist. What might look like contradictory opinions may have some logic behind them that's not visible on the aggregate data.

thanks whatwouldrondo

Those scales, and the use of Quantitative research to measure attitudes that have more than one dimension are fraught with problems. It is not just that you have to frame the question carefully, it needs to be a question where the answers are likely to be straightforward positives or negatives, without any other factors influencing thinking. It is OK if you are asking eg will you vote to stay in the EU where they either will or will not, and that is all you want to know. Not a suitable way of measuring attitudes to more complex issues like the ECHR where for instance the respondents may have an informed view that they hold strongly or may just be influenced by the poor PR in the popular press and a vague feeling it is not a good thing, are not that arsed about it but are ticking a box to be done with it. There is no measure of the strength of their feeling. Qualitative research is more appropriate for that sort of issue so you can explore the dimensions of the attitude.

Plus psychologically people are drawn to a central option, to sit on the fence if you like. It is actually not good practise to have a scale with an odd number of options that has a central point. There is a measurable tendency to tick there.

They should hand this to the Market Research Society, from my recollection of my lectures it would be a good example of what not to use Quantitative Research for........

the use of Quantitative research to measure attitudes
Wish this wasn't so important, I like research methodology theory.

Reposting from another thread
The Chief Inspector of Borders and Immigration, David Bolt, has published five new inspection reports. The most interesting is on the “hostile environment”, specifically the powers to deny driving licences and bank accounts to migrants unlawfully resident in the UK.
www.freemovement.org.uk/inspection-report-on-hostile-environment-finds-hundreds-wrongly-denied-services/

Which according to LH's Times article on challenging gov decisions will be unchallengeable.

"Word clouds" of Leave and Remain voters

http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-findings/what-mattered-most-to-you-when-deciding-how-to-vote-in-the-eu-referendum/#.WYxkoPldhBc

Leave voter cloud (pic 1) was heavily dominated by immigration
with sovereignty & control also important
but economy and trade very very low priority

Remainers (pic 2) had almost reversed priorities:
the economy dominating,
with trade and rights also important,
but not immigration

Nationwide sounds note of caution over lending in run-up to Brexit

www.theguardian.com/business/2017/aug/11/nationwide-caution-lending-brexit-economy

Leave nostalgia ...for Capital Punishment, imperial measures

Wanting the return of capital punishment was a much better indication of a Leave voter than income, or even age (pic 1h)

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-poll-leave-voters-death-penalty-yougov-results-light-bulbs-a7656791.html

What they want from Brexit (pic 2 - YouGov Feb 2017)

Capital punishment dominates (hang the Remainers ? )
Corporal punishment in schools
Return of smoking to pubs & restaurants < not envy >
Imperial measures

I don't see how those Leavers can possible turn back the clock like that - unless the UK drops out of the world somehow.
So, looks like many will be bitterly disappointed whatever happens.

It really is about values - and the ones they want are those of 1950

It really is about values That's the truth ruth (Bigchoc)
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3003430-To-wonder-if-Nazi-Germany-felt-like-the-UK-does-now-when-they-were-creeping-into-power
Lively thread with some interesting posts ^