Westministenders: Transition

[RedToothBrush]

Last thread opener, it was all about the government buzz word being shown to listen at every opportunity.

Now transition is creeping in as people realise that no we can't just do a settlement, arrange a new trade deal with the EU and have a whole host of other deals in place in two years.

Who'd have thought.

We will be getting Brexit because we give in to threats of terrorism. Not quite getting how that takes back control.

But Brexit will be good. It will be glorious. And in the long term we will be better off for it.

Er ok.

My concern is the immediate aftermath of Brexit
Not conserving the bloody fish, but conserving the welfare of the vulnerable humans

What happens on 1 April 2019 as the ports become logjammed ?
How can food be imported then ?

Currently looks like a period of empty supermarket shelves, shortages, maybe rationing once the govt gets a grip.

During the early-mid 1970s - the chaos of the Heath and Wilson years - there were contingency plans and preliminary ration cards for petrol only, not food

However, wartime / post war rationing systems and infrastructure were then still in the institutional memory,
with some of those involved still in Parliament or in public services.

I fear the UK has also lost the competency to swiftly organize a fair rationing system and / or to transport stocks to areas of shortage

All these fancy diversions into helping cocoa producers or fish conservation are fine dreams for the future
First, how do we feed the bloody people from 1 April 2019 ?

Bigchoc the farm I was visiting yesterday exports prime bulls. They travel under extremely strict licencing rules. They don't just load on a truck for the EU and ship off under FoM. There may be changes to the paperwork and fees but it will not be much different with or without Brexit. It was not that long ago that the industry was coping with the BSE export ban and Foot and Mouth may have done for Gordon Brown but the farming industry survived.

First, how do we feed the bloody people from 1 April 2019 ?

Jam ?

Qu'ils mangent du gâteau

howabout The UK will be a "third country" and hence will be treated like any other in the world
The UK stops being in compliance from 1 April 2019, regardless of whether the UK keeps the same standards as before.
You seem to think things can just continue as before: That is a fundamental misunderstanding of non-tariff barriers

There may be a tiny % of UK food exports that are sufficiently valued to be a special case, but that will be an insignificant amount of goods.

WTO terms have agreed quotas, inspections, certifications etc

Under WTO rules, the EU cannot just ignore all these for the UK - or it would have to ignore them for every other WTO member too

Mother the logistics are already there. Part of the foot and mouth prevention strategy for the UK is controlling imports not just of animal feed but of the wider food supply. The bulls for export are subject to strict quarantine, movement tracking and licencing rules already.

it isn't just about paperwork, it is about logistics, we and the EU currently do not have the infrastructure in place for changes of this magnitude. We may care about that but I'm guessing the EU will just have a collective gallic shrug and not give a toss, and why should they ?

It should be obvious to anyone with half a brain that the EU is not going to spend a wooden cent on anything to do with Brexit until it's been inked signed, sealed, and possibly passed by a vote in the UK HoC.

Probably because - unlike the UK government - the EU doesn't want to waste taxpayers money.

I suspect they already got the next stages planned - and if I am right, it will get even more ironic (if possible).

Let's assume (and that gets bigger daily) we do manage to ink a deal on Brexit by October 2018.

And amazingly it is approved by the various levels of EU governance by March 2019.

It could be at that point, the EU starts to build the UK-EU infrastructure it requires. No doubt it will have plenty of time to do so, since there isn't a cat in hells chance the UK will have.

This could string "Brexit" out for years. Obviously the UK would be the main casualty, rather than the EU, but we chose to cut our nose off.

Of course all the whining from Brexiteers will just get the response "well what did you expect ? You told us how inefficient the EU was ..."

Even if the changes to the paperwork and fees are small, a sudden change could still cause a huge amount of disruption if it is not excellently organised and well communicated to all involved. Everyone from large exporters to small exporters, drivers, custom staff, etc will need to know exactly what the changes are, and if there are any changes to the way they conduct their business to avoid short term chaos.

the Road Haulage Association Report:

www.rha.uk.net/getmedia/8a3948e6-2f37-463f-84aa-e88ecb8f856e/RHA-Brexit-–-a-haulage-perspective_1.pdf.aspx

Customs problems could cripple supply chains, leaving supermarkets short of supplies
Most people don't realise the fragility of the UKfood supply

The RHA fears massive queues of lorries at the ports, motorways backed up for miles, too few experienced customs staff to cope with 1000s more lorries, fresh food supplies rotting.

RHA chief executive Richard Burnett:
"Nearly 30 % of all food consumed in the UK comes from the EU and it all arrives in lorries.
At the moment, the process is seamless – it's as easy to deliver from Milan to Manchester as it is from Manchester to Leeds as far as customs processes are concerned".

"After Brexit, that will no longer be the case, and we have to get the new processes right. Otherwise the system for getting food into the country could grind to a halt".

And increase in state pension age from 67 to 68 to be bought forward 7 years to 2037.

So the next generation are paying for the last generations obsession with Brexit. Sounds about fair.

You still don't realise the consequences of becoming a "third country" i.e. no deal Brexit:

All the years the UK was in the EU, under the terms of the Single Market the E27 had to just accept we were following the movement tracking, licensing etc.
After Brexit, under WTO rules, the U.K. must queue at EU customs to prove all this, just like every other country without a EU trade agreement.

AND WTO rules specify quotas for all the "third countries" - the U.K. can't just trundle up as before with unlimited amounts of exports
These quotas may be less than the current amount the U.K. exports

FIRST - after Brexit - the UK will have to get its quotas etc through the WTO, i.e. it must seek WTO agreement first.
Any unfriendly country - Argentina ?, angry ex-colony ? Russia ? China ? - can delay this for an unknown amount of time

Until the quotas and certifications are agreed with the WTO, the UK may not be able to export anything to the EU.
Would the EU risk legal hassle with the WTO, just to help the U.K. ?

Would the EU risk legal hassle with the WTO, just to help the U.K. ?

Does that really need to be asked out loud ?

I really can't see a majority (after all, "the will of the people" is supreme) of 450,000,000 people agreeing to that, or being happy of it happened (not that it is).

I know I would complain as an EU citizen.

From my inbox ...

Polling shows that no Brexit is definitely better than a bad Brexit

The government’s two red lines in the negotiations hinge on the European Court of Justice (ECJ) and immigration. The government’s line on the ECJ has already started to crumble, leaving immigration – and the control of it – as one of the major drivers of Brexit.

(contd)

There is a tremendous difference between being able to move goods within the EU as easily as to Scotland / England - no stops, no need to prove anything if there is a UK ID -

and being in a queue of lorries for umpteen hours or even days - which all third countries go through

Even lorries from Turkey, which is within the Customs Union (but not the Single Market) have to wait 16-30 hrs at the EU borders just in the queue.

Outside the Customs Union as well, the U.K. would have to provide every piece of documentation and even then Customs would physically inspect a certain % of goods in detail,
i.e. the drivers must unpack the lorry and customs go through each case.
Customs may even test samples.

Oops Turkey wait is 16-36 hrs for lorries, from the Times piece

I know this is a bit of a sidetrack, but I am a bit at the current Tory obsession with saying that labour have u-turned on a policy around paying all all student debt that they never had. They have been going on about this for days and I had been just rolling my eyes about it, but now Jo Johnson is banging on saying labour have made a spectacular U-turn when at no point did labour say they would remove all past student debt! It is an outright, blatant fabrication!

The assertion is being made based on an interview with FHM where Corbyn said he would look at the issue. Tories are selective quoting to make it sounds like a promise to remove all felt, when the full quote (attached) states he didn't have a policy yet, but would consider options to reduce the impact on those who already had felt built up.

Now there is spin and bluster and there is outright lies. This campaign by the Tories is now falling into the territory of the latter in my view. It is pretty damn low even for them

It may be good for smokers. People returning home from holiday may be able to buy their packages of duty free fags. And booze. NHS with reduced funding can pick up the pieces

At the Home Affairs Committee, Graeme Charnock, CFO at Peel Ports Group, the second largest ports group in the UK gave evidence:
when a (rest of the world) container is inspected, its dwell time at the port estate is 2-4 days.

data.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/committeeevidence.svc/evidencedocument/home-affairs-committee/implications-of-the-uks-exit-from-the-european-union/oral/46107.pdf

That's with the U.K. having the staff and the infrastructure; the E27 won't begin to build theirs - if they decide it is worthwhile - until they know the Brrxit terms.
So, it won't be ready in time.

Possible solution: build a facility in the U.K. and give it to the EU to do their inspections on UK soil