Westministenders: Transition

[RedToothBrush]

Last thread opener, it was all about the government buzz word being shown to listen at every opportunity.

Now transition is creeping in as people realise that no we can't just do a settlement, arrange a new trade deal with the EU and have a whole host of other deals in place in two years.

Who'd have thought.

We will be getting Brexit because we give in to threats of terrorism. Not quite getting how that takes back control.

But Brexit will be good. It will be glorious. And in the long term we will be better off for it.

Er ok.

Not surprising news
business insider

For Bullock, though, it's not just a lack of strategy that is letting the government down. He has been "deeply shocked" by how ministers have approached Brexit process in general, he tells me, particularly the way in which be believes ministers are ignoring both the words of EU figures in Brussels and the advice of knowledgeable civil servants in London.

"I have been really shocked. I have been really, truly, deeply shocked," the former diplomat tells me.

"There is a very effective machine behind negotiations with the EU for the UK in general. We have the UK permanent representation containing a lot people who are outstanding and experts in the EU. We have lots of experts in Whitehall. Hundreds of them. There are lots of senior civil servants who have worked extensively with the EU.

"And yet we seem to have completely ignored all advice and any concept of there being a strategy.

"If someone had asked me in August 'okay what would be the absolute worst way to approach this?' I don't think I could have done it as badly as government ministers are right now."

The UK could freely allow food imports from the EU, while preventing them from other countries with laxer standards - but only by invoking the WTO emergency waiver:

This allows countries in such an emergency to temporarily treat WTO members differently, even without trade agreements to do so.

I was reading that Peston Facebook post quoted by Hashi last night and had a sudden déjà vu. Replace 'she' with 'he' and 'conservative' with 'labour' and it sound remarkably similar to the situation labour found themselves on with much of the cabinet trying to oust Corbyn while grass roots members overwhelmingly supported. Even the idea that the old guard are trying to get in now because otherwise a new, younger leader will come forward in a year or so mirrors a lot of the talk around Corbyn's leadership.

Of course there are obvious differences as well, but it is striking.

What goes around comes around and all that...

Bullock raises specific areas of concern that even he hadn't thought about before:

"when you start digging down a bit and think about issues like intellectual property rights and so on, these are little areas but these all need to be addressed in 20 months.

If they are not addressed in 20 months the consequences for individuals and businesses in the UK will be awful. I've got a long list:

medicine approvals, aviation safety, accreditation for service operations for planes, and so many more.

Countless agencies governed by the ECJ.
The UK may need to put in place entire new agencies for these things within 20 months.
You can imagine the consequences of this not being done."

The pieces by David Allan Green and Richard North are really good and quite chilling. [Off to dig up the garden]

Funnily enough digging up the garden is what I'd also though of earlier this morning....

• thought

A WTO emergency waiver to allow food supplies to enter the country. It is a little shocking that if that situation did arise, it would be one of the UK's own making. And failure to frantically do everything in the A50 years to prevent it occurring.

The gov't is understandably more concerned with the state of affairs within the Conservative Part.

On the daily politics, Jo Coburn said as a retort that the Con's could find the 1 billion for the DUP. I think it was Nigel Evans who said that if they hadn't they wouldn't be in gov't. There you go. Take 1 billion of taxpayers money and give it as a bribe, ransom payment bung to keep you in gov't. Just as bald as that.

I'm not sure if this has been posted before but it's sobering about Britain's influence and its future role on the EU Policy and Security Commitee.

Brexit's toll on foreign policy: Losing our reputation day after day
There are three elements at play here: first, and most fixable, is the state of Britain's Foreign Office under Boris Johnson. (It is fixable by replacing him with someone serious and credible.) Second, the infrastructure of the EU's foreign and security policy. Third, and hardest to repair, Britain's global stature as a result of the referendum and subsequent political chaos. In all three cases, Britain is - as a certain president of ill-repute might say - losing badly.
.....
One conversation I had with an official was particularly instructive. Given that Britain would be invited to join occasional PSC meetings with non-EU NATO states like Norway and Canada, I asked whether there could be a special category for Britain. The official replied: "If Britain, why not Montenegro or Turkey?" This was not designed to humiliate, but merely to express the legal fact that Britain would be a third country on the same level. When I pointed out all of Britain's experience and assets that it had to bring to the foreign policy and security table, and suggested that the EU might be cutting off its nose to spite its face, the response was simple and devastating: "You cut off our nose, not us."

http://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2017/07/17/brexit-s-toll-on-foreign-policy-losing-our-reputation-day-af

The rough 40% figure often quoted for U.K. imported food is wrt value

The UK tends to export high value - e.g. whisky

• and import relatively low value basic foods i.e. what is essential, rather than nice treats.

Although not all the 40% food imports are from the EU, some of the non-EU imports travel via the EU.

Interesting article in the Guardian by Monbiot Totalitarian Capitalism

Interesting angle from which to view the whole Brexit process, from media coverage to referendum, A50 and current negotiations.

Solange LeBourg‏ @solange_lebourg
Bot account. Opened Jan 2017 yet only 5 tweets, no followers.
Now inciting political violence over #brexit.
Why?
Who's paying for it?

There was discussion of Russian intereference with Brexit and then Farage being a person of interest but did anything ever come of that? I think there were articles and reports that stated the voter registration website was hacked (or brought down - I can't remember which) but has there been an investigation into this?

If there's anything to it, surely it would be a huge problem and we'd have to take steps from preventing it from happening again and to apply sanctions against whoever perpetrated it?

It is really difficult to unpick all the obfuscation on food imports and exports. The figure for the EU, net of non-EU, is closer to 25%. The Food and Drink Federation figures are quite interesting. They indicate the UK exports about 1/3 of the amount they import from the EU and the split between high and low value is roughly 2/3 high value imports and exports. This seems to imply a net figure of closer to 15% from EU with 2/3 of that being in processed foods.

The whisky exports are largely offset by wine and coffee imports.

The figure for non-UK EU Nationals working in agricultural food production of just over 6% of total workforce is also a lot lower than often implied.

www.fdf.org.uk/eu-referendum-food-drink-statistics.aspx

Happy to be corrected on all or any of this. I was thinking about this yesterday as I happened to be visiting the local farm which produces the beef I buy at my local butcher.

It is really difficult to unpick all the obfuscation on food imports and exports.

Not really sure there's any need. The bottom line is we know the UK is completely incapable of sustaining itself foodwise.

It's probably unfashionable (since it involves knowing stuff) but Autarky was only ever possible with colonies.

Part of the process of becoming an industrialised nation is the realisation - and willingness to accept - that you sacrifice one thing, to gain another. In the UKs case we sacrificed our ability to feed ourselves for the ability to develop a city-based industrial population.

I am sure all the owners of the Jaguar, Nissan, BAe, Toyota, and Mini factories in the UK would much rather they produced cars than bushels of wheat ....

Looking at the UK as a single entity doesn't really show the full picture either. Some parts of the UK are more dependent on agriculture. I think some items from the Island of Ireland are marketed on an all island basis because there is a premium on this origin. NI is part of this supply chain outside of Britain. Produce and livestock getting dizzy criss crossing the Border. Of course, produce and livestock/dairy can be shipped straight to Britain instead, after Brexit. It will add cost. But there will be increased restrictions and cost to the current situation, in any event.

For Bullock, though, it's not just a lack of strategy that is letting the government down. He has been "deeply shocked" by how ministers have approached Brexit process in general, he tells me, particularly the way in which be believes ministers are ignoring both the words of EU figures in Brussels and the advice of knowledgeable civil servants in London

I'm starting to wonder if DD is a secret remainer. And by conducting the negotiations in such a breathtakingly incompetent manner he's planning to scupper them?
That's just me grasping at straws isn't it? There's no wider plan, he's just shit at his his job.

I'm also planning to dig up the garden soon.

Whenshewasbad - that's dh's theory

I already have 6 raised beds - although one I use for flowers (bulbs in spring) so I'm already part way to self sufficiency

There was discussion of Russian intereference with Brexit and then Farage being a person of interest but did anything ever come of that?

Hi Pain. I think Farage is/was a POI because of his links to Trump and the possibility he may have been a go between between Russia, Assange and Trump.

Carole Cadwalladr in The Guardian has written a lot about the use of Cambridge Analytica and its dodgy funding, as well as the links between the Trump campaign, Russia and Brexit. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/26/robert-mercer-breitbart-war-on-media-steve-bannon-donald-trump-nigel-farage?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other

Also J J Patrick who writes for Byline has covered a lot of Russian interference in UK politics. Such as this about the new Tory poster boy Jacob Rees Mogg
www.byline.com/column/67/article/1777

Cadwalladr and Patrick's twitter timeline are a good source of info too.

Why doesn't it get the same coverage as in the US? I don't know but I suspect it may be because the UK has a different historical relationship with Russia and we don't have a free press or a 1st amendment. The majority of the UK press is corporate owned and pro Brexit so why would they? 🙂

The Byline link got mangled and is

www.byline.com/column/67/article/1777

Love your raised beds pretty. I am much too lazy for such exploits but I did take the DDs round the Pollok Park market garden last week so at least they know how it's done.

I never cease to be shocked at the risk that devout Leavers can airily wave away
The callous disregard for whether the most vulnerable may go hungry for a while

I'm sure the very wealthy will not run out of caviar or champagne
I'm sure the comfortably off will stock up on weeks of essentials ahead of time
However, what of the poor and vulnerable who cannot ?

Even civilized countries are only a few missing meals away from violent anarchy

Origins of food consumed in the UK, i.e what the UK actually eats / drinks:

54% UK
27% EU
2% rest of Europe
17% rest of world

That is 29% that needs to enter UK ports / airports from Europe
Some of the non-Europe also passes through Europe

If UK ports and motorways are logjammed for days, imports cannot enter.
There are not even any statements from the Brexit dept as to how international flights will legally be able to land / take off from the UK.

pretty I love your garden. Very jealous, mines a bit on the small side - I could get a few rows of carrots though.

The problem for UK farmers is that as a 3rd country without a trade deal and without EU infrastructure to inspect 1000s of UK lorries:

on 31 March 2019, UK food exports to the EU will cease

Expect many bankruptcies among UK farmers.

Yep the 27% accords with my 25% approx as does the 54% UK net of exports figure. It includes the chocolate we manufactured in the UK until it recently moved to Poland. I would much prefer the cocoa bean growers to do the chocolate production. In any event I am grumpier than usual having given up chocolate eating till my swimsuit fits me better.

And since we're on food supply an interesting article on North Sea cod stocks. The WWF is already looking ahead to how the UK can better manage sustainability post Brexit.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-40642230