Westministenders: The bookends to a year of political chaos. Just how far have we come?

[RedToothBrush]

The 15th June 2016.

The Thames was filled with a flotilla of boats in a publicity stunt for the Leave campaign to draw attention to fisheries. Nigel Farage and Kate Hoey in their heads thought they were Leonardo and Kate, but the moment was rather more titanic in nature and could not have been more Alan Partridge if they had tried. Coming up behind was Bob Gedolf in a shameful and cringeworthy display of swearing and abuse that really didn’t help the Remain camp in anyway. Largely unnoticed was a small boat with a family following it all unfold…

The next day things went from fiasco to horror.

Farage unveiled the Dog Whistle Poster and Jo Cox was murdered. And the UK seemed set on its course for 7 days later when the world was turned upside down by the referendum itself.

14th June 2017.

Fast forward 365 days later and another tragedy unfolded. This time of a very different nature but with no less political significance.
Grenfell.

A moment of national shame. A symbol of so many things that had come to pass in the previous twelve months.

The election just the previous week had changed the direction of travel we seemed to be headed and left the Prime Minister exposed and looking wildly out of touch. The Maybot was given one more chance.

And the Maybot seems to be failing the test of her party who had the grace to grant her a second chance.

The Queen dressed in the same shade of blue, May delivered her ‘victory speech’ in, ignored the security threat and visited the ranks of the poor and the forgotten. A deliberate message to May not to forget who she serves? A Queen who feels aggrieved and angry by May’s behaviour? Who knows.

As for Brexit. The government looks lost. Adrift. The ‘Fight of the Summer’ over the EU’s plan for talks sounds out the window despite the denials from the Brexit Department. Hard Brexit is still on the cards. Apparently. But what does anyone believe now? May’s and the Brexiteers domination of the agenda is shattered, its power starting to be questioned.

What next?

This evening the anger is building.

Who knows, what will happen. Some of it might be predictable, but the future is far from certain and we have definitely entered a new era. We just don’t know who will lead it, or what its ambition or what the end goal now is.

What we do know, more acutely than ever is that we are all human and the wise words of Jo Cox about having ‘More in Common’ ring though ever more strongly.

Once again we feel ‘on the brink’.

lotis no I don't think the maths works - would also need snp, plaid, greens and dup (obvs I know they have ruled it out) - I can't remember the exact figures but think that's right?

Though maybe some con rebels abstaining would be enough. And who knows what may happen next - utterly unpredictable.

"According to the Guardian, the EU wants all rights currently enjoyed by EU nationals in the UK, and Brits in EU, to be protected in perpetuity, as long as they arrived in their adopted homes before Britain leaves the bloc at midnight Brussels time on 29 March 2019."

There is an issue about this which is not being addressed at all. The Good Friday Agreement recognised the right of people in Northern Ireland to identify solely as Irish. It is not their adopted home. Their right to not identify as people from their neighbouring island or origins from the neighbouring island was enshrined. Britain (sic) may leave the Bloc in 2019, but new Irish EU nationals will be born every single day after that in Northern Ireland. In the UK as of right. So will all these future people of Northern Ireland have their rights as EU nationals enshrined in perpetuity as well? There is no cut off point for their presence. Will these people have recourse to the ECJ as EU citizens beyond 2019?

I just have to say it is evident May is now the Con's lightning rod. Their human shield. All that is wrong with their ideology and MO will soon be singly the fault of May. John Nicholson's image on 'This week' about May being put into the 'Psycho' rocking chair and being wheeled into the bay window to bridge the survival of their power is one of the bleakest views I have heard.

I have no time for May but she ain't on her own. It will be like the witchfinders saying the evil is all contained in the witch and her public burning will get rid of all sin and bad things will have been happening.

Clumsy. Soz.

I just heard on the Radio community workers saying that the atmosphere has completely changed since Ealing stepped in, more constructive, supporting them to get things done.

This was interspersed with the Leader of Kensington and Chelsea claiming this was entirely acceptable and normal that they did not have the resources to cope with an emergency on this scale, trauma counselling was mentioned specifically. No mention of why it has taken a week for them to ask for help. He claimed it was entirely irrelevant that there was such a disparity between rich and poor, and that it was the richest borough.

Perhaps it is relevant that 54% of the population in Ealing are not white as opposed to 29% in Kensington and Chelsea and it has had a large immigrant community at least since WW2 when the thriving Polish community there was established.

Due to numbers, Labour can't form even a minority govt without the abstention of the DUP and / or some conservative MPs

The DUP almost certainly would never allow Corbyn to become PM if they could stop him. He is their bogeyman.
They might allow another Labour leader, if JC retires.

Sorry, not white British, and actually the White British will include high proportion of the Polish community who have been here decades

I just heard on the Radio community workers saying that the atmosphere has completely changed since Ealing stepped in, more constructive, supporting them to get things done.

What I have read so far on the Ealing take over seems very positive. They seem to have dived in and got things moving straight away to make it more focused on the community needs. I hope this continues. I can't help thinking that a labour council having to come in and sort out the mess made by a Tory one seems pretty blooming symbolic right now.

The EU's redline for E27 expats is probably that those residing in the UK at the start of A50 expiry (end March 2019) must
retain their full current rights under EU law, protected by ECJ etc.

Doubtful if they are really serious about rights for those who have already left the UK by then ,
except that all E27 citizens must receive any state pension if they have paid in, same as a UK citizen would

Isn't the right to Irish citizenship already based on 'the island of Ireland''? NI citizens can already identify 'solely' as Irish unless Ireland plans to change its citizenship rules. Have I misunderstood?

Mind you bigchoc, on the principle that the party that 'forces' an election often does worse (though not in 1979), the cons might not want to vote down a minority lab government if they (the cons) had already lost a vote of confidence in the H of C. Depending on what was in the lab QS obviously. If lab kept it minimal and non contentious, who knows?

We could end up with neither party able to do anything contentious. That would be a sustainable outcome normally - but in this case the brexit clock is ticking..... And any decisions on that will be contentious!

Incredible admission of failure by Kensington council that they can't provide essential relief to their own residents

• or that they don't wish to provide for poor residents

Any sensible govt would wish to spend all the time until March 2019, except for emergencies / disasters, on Brexit.

Whichever main party is able to get a majority agreement or acquiescence to that work, could stay on until then

The country desperately & URGENTLY needs a pragmatic cross party consensus and polling of talent on this one issue
(just agree a continued budget to run everything else and avoid other controversies)

I hope the politicians are up to the task, wrt knowledge and bottle

During the election Buzzfeed did some very good stuff on social media and what was being shared. This article on the increasing influence of online sites compared with the traditional newspapers and TV is really worth a read. This is a huge issue and how the different parties deal with it will impact on their future success.

This Was The Election Where The Newspapers Lost Their Monopoly On The Political News Agenda
www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/how-newspapers-lost-their-monopoly-on-the-political-agenda?utm_term=.whMllmEzBx#.efyAAPGxJg

I would like Nick Clegg to be on the crossparty Brexit team but I suppose it would just add fire to the 'unelected bureaucrats' 'look at Kinnock and Mandelson' end of the anti-EU opinion block.

The splendiferously named Rock Fielding-Mellen who is apparently the K&C Cabinet Member for Housing, Property and Regeneration.

www.rbkc.gov.uk/contactsdirectory/CllrPublicInfo.aspx?seed=Councillor%20Rock%20%20Feilding-Mellen&key=4881

And a query from the Grenfell Action Group about his activities and 'gentrification' activities that might affect the value of his own home.

grenfellactiongroup.wordpress.com/2016/04/17/will-rbkc-investigate-rock-feilding-mellen/

Following our earlier conversation about privatisation. I think this is one area where privatising will absolutely not help at all. It will result in lower pay from bank staff and higher costs for NHS services needing to employee them. It is a bloody stupid idea to have this run by a private company when having the right agency staff available at the right time with the right skills is such a key part of keeping the NHS working.

Government quietly privatises the NHS's in-house agency staff provider
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nhs-privatisation-charges-professionals-in-house-agency-a7426966.html

So apparently now the cladding used on Grenfell tower was banned in the UK for high buildings??
Not much on the link though. Did anyone see this?
guardian link

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
A lot of this "85% voted for hard Brexit at the election thing" - so naturally I read all the manifestos again. Here's why it's incorrect.

Here are the GE2017 voter mandates: "Accepting the referendum result" - Con (42%) + Lab (40%) + Ukip (1.8%) + DUP (0.9%) = 85%

1. In second place - Unilateral Guarantee of EU citizens rights in the UK = Labour, LibDems, Green, SNP, Plaid & Ukip = 54.3%

1. Rule out "No Deal": Lab (40) + LibD (7.4) + Green (1.6) + SNP (3) = 52%

1. Exact same benefits as Single Market: Lab (40) + LibD (7.4) + Green (1.6%) + SNP (3) = 52%

1. No ECJ jurisdiction: Con (42) + Ukip (1.8) DUP (0.9) = 45%

1. Leaving Single Market: Con (42.3) + Ukip (1.8) = 44.1%

1. Leaving Customs Union: Con (42.3) + Ukip (1.8) = 44.1%

Re the £5 million Grenfell Tower Residents’ Discretionary Fund which is going to the local authority to distribute, will K&C be able to cope with the administration of that? Cabinet member and property developer Rock F-M's company website states that "In his spare time, Rock is a local government Councillor."

This from Peston:

One reason why the Grenfell tragedy has shaken so many of us is because it exposes so much of what's wrong with the way this place has been run for years.

We'll have to wait for a forensic examination of all the many decisions that turned a series of risks into an appalling catastrophe.

But although the trigger may still be unclear, it is reasonable to identify a number of underlying causes.

Part of the background is austerity that has been particularly acute for local government.

But austerity seems to have become particularly toxic in a system where responsibility for vital safety decisions is so diffuse: we have ministers in charge of regulations, councillors funding an arms length management company, and a management company placing a refurbishment contract with the cheapest bidder.

There is naturally huge anger that the government didn't ban the kind of cladding used at Grenfell, when such cladding is illegal for use on high rise structures in the US (as the Times reports today).

Similarly there is horror that the government never made it obligatory for the fire safety standards that apply to new buildings to be enforced at older blocks - that such improvements are only recommended, not obligatory.

But such lax or light touch regulation only becomes fatal in a system - such as we have - designed to drive down costs and save money, not to put the safety of people first.

It is a system in which those working for all the interconnected bodies that made the refurbishment decisions and gave the wrong safety advice to tenants are able to say - as if that makes it alright - "we followed the rules".

^It is a system in which identifying anyone who can be proved to be ultimately responsible for what happened may be impossible.
And as we saw in the banks before the financial crisis, when people can take reckless decisions safe in the knowledge they can't be held to account, reckless decisions get taken.^

The horrific corollary of a faceless, irresponsible system of public-housing governance is that many of the poor and vulnerable people who died in the fire are not even being given the respect of formal identification as victims - because they live on the fringes of the state, and the authorities seem unable to be confident they even existed, let alone that they have died.

There is a social contract between those of us lucky enough to have voices that are heard and those who don't that we should not put them in harms way. Grenfell seems the most grotesque breach of that contract in my lifetime. It shames us all.

I don't think its something confined to the public sector. We have a culture which has grown up in which many people carry out their jobs to the remit of their job description and then go 'oh that's not my responsibility' and dump on everyone else.

DH recently quit his job at a big firm for similar entrenched mentality.

At the other end of the scale you have emergency services and health staff who have no choice but to go above and beyond.

Kensington council doesn't give a shit about immigrants, that's why they were so dismissive of the Grenfell residents' safety concerns. It's all of a piece.

As per the putative talks, I'd hope the LDs would have more sense than to nuke themselves with a Tory agreement, but I'd wouldn't be surprised if the Tories tried it.

Xpost, with RTB, I read that in the Times today - and wondered why it's taken so long to establish that that type of cladding is illegal in the UK to that height. Why did we hear it was illegal in the US and Germany first?

Re the £5 million Grenfell Tower Residents’ Discretionary Fund which is going to the local authority to distribute, will K&C be able to cope with the administration of that?

I'm not sure sure, but this may also now have been handed to Ealing to deal with?

This I should a genuine question that needs to be asked now. Specially from our very own BoJo and the Tory officials who delayed fire safety overhauls and reviews. This is criminal.