Westministenders: The bookends to a year of political chaos. Just how far have we come?

[RedToothBrush]

The 15th June 2016.

The Thames was filled with a flotilla of boats in a publicity stunt for the Leave campaign to draw attention to fisheries. Nigel Farage and Kate Hoey in their heads thought they were Leonardo and Kate, but the moment was rather more titanic in nature and could not have been more Alan Partridge if they had tried. Coming up behind was Bob Gedolf in a shameful and cringeworthy display of swearing and abuse that really didn’t help the Remain camp in anyway. Largely unnoticed was a small boat with a family following it all unfold…

The next day things went from fiasco to horror.

Farage unveiled the Dog Whistle Poster and Jo Cox was murdered. And the UK seemed set on its course for 7 days later when the world was turned upside down by the referendum itself.

14th June 2017.

Fast forward 365 days later and another tragedy unfolded. This time of a very different nature but with no less political significance.
Grenfell.

A moment of national shame. A symbol of so many things that had come to pass in the previous twelve months.

The election just the previous week had changed the direction of travel we seemed to be headed and left the Prime Minister exposed and looking wildly out of touch. The Maybot was given one more chance.

And the Maybot seems to be failing the test of her party who had the grace to grant her a second chance.

The Queen dressed in the same shade of blue, May delivered her ‘victory speech’ in, ignored the security threat and visited the ranks of the poor and the forgotten. A deliberate message to May not to forget who she serves? A Queen who feels aggrieved and angry by May’s behaviour? Who knows.

As for Brexit. The government looks lost. Adrift. The ‘Fight of the Summer’ over the EU’s plan for talks sounds out the window despite the denials from the Brexit Department. Hard Brexit is still on the cards. Apparently. But what does anyone believe now? May’s and the Brexiteers domination of the agenda is shattered, its power starting to be questioned.

What next?

This evening the anger is building.

Who knows, what will happen. Some of it might be predictable, but the future is far from certain and we have definitely entered a new era. We just don’t know who will lead it, or what its ambition or what the end goal now is.

What we do know, more acutely than ever is that we are all human and the wise words of Jo Cox about having ‘More in Common’ ring though ever more strongly.

Once again we feel ‘on the brink’.

Ha howabout, Tories certainly jolly cross but as for their negotiating skills...

Brexit negotiations continuing in this instability just can't happen.The close referendum result and this election...what is the will of the people etc.

But a joint EU/UK statement on the protection of citizen rights (from a specific date), and the EU presenting the leaving bill. That could happen..That could all still take months.

PainInTheEar Totally believable. And given that Liam Fox is the person supposedly protecting British businesses, and scouting new prospects, the outlook for British businesses is even less cheery. There was a British businessman on one of the Leaver voter stories on the Guardian who runs a business in Switzerland. He was very sane and welcomed new trading opportunities but had little faith in those in charge of the UK exit process.

Anyone else disappointed the Keir was still blowing the Brexit trumpet on Marr this morning? I was hoping for a more equivocal statement.

I've just finished watching Andrew Marr too illegitimate. Any chance I could join you in the pit of despond?

I'm so depressed, in my mind Brexit was a vote for change. Spending more money in the uk rather than sending it over the channel (that bloody bus).
The general election was a vote to stop austerity and redistribute wealth more evenly - to actually move towards a more European culture.
They are going to drag us over the fucking cliff whether we like it or not aren't they. so pissed off right now.

The problem, quite simply, is the political fallout from overturning a referendum decision.

Yes, I know it was advisory. Yes, I know it was close. Yes, I know some people answered a different question to the one on the ballot paper.

But these are all reasons not to have held the referendum in the first place (or at least to have put more safeguards in). Now that we've had it, how do you say 'nope, not doing it no more' and keep your credibility intact?

Now that we've had it, how do you say 'nope, not doing it no more' and keep your credibility intact
Easily when you get a majority in the next election and the tories are in pieces. Especially when the 'it' was never defined.

Doesn't the delaying of the queen's speech for two years mean a general election won't be called until
Brexit is concluded? I'm not sure I fully grasp the implications of this but that's my limited understanding anyway.

Don't worry, pain The 2-year parliament is getting a bit of fuss, but it doesn't change anything really important:

the govt can still be brought down any time if it loses a vote of confidence
It also can't function properly if it can't pass its next budget

So, it doesn't mean the govt is guaranteed to stay for 2 years, any more than the Fixed Parliament means it is guaranteed for 5 years

We had a 2-year Parliament in 2011 with the ConLDem coalition, also under Labour in 1969, plus another year earlier in the century when I wasn't alive !

Pain - usually parliaments are divided into sessions of a year each, each opening with a Queen's Speech where the government lays out the laws it intends to pass that year. All legislation brought forward in a session has to be concluded within a session; if it's not concluded it has to go back to the beginning of the legislative process. So making a session two years rather than one means that bills have longer to get through parliament, if that makes sense?

The government could collapse at any moment, irrespective of the length of the parliamentary session.

The Tories choosing the DUP just means they want to try to force their own version of Brexit, without consulting the opposition.

If the govt fails to pass any important bill, e.g. budget or Brexit-related, Labour can propose a vote of no confidence

If the Tories lose, then they are no longer the govt and Corbyn would be asked if he can form a govt, even a minority one.

If he either declines, or forms a govt and then also loses a vote of No Confidence (proposed by the Tories) then there would definitely be a GE, regardless of whether the parties actually want one.

So, a minority govt might actually run a while, if they have broad agreement with the Official opposition, about Brexit strategy.

It does make sense, thank you
irene and big!

O be exact, the Official Opposition can propose a motion of No Confidence any time, but to be taken seriously by the Speaker,there has to be a plausible reason.

This could be failing to pass an important bill, or it could be just appearing not to be properly in charge - iirc JC plans an NC Motion after the Queen's Speech

To be exact

Immediately after farron resigned, Jim waterson (?) of buzzfeed posed the question of how long the coalition with Tories rumour would take. This appears to have spurned its own life, so I'm hoping this is really much of nothing. However there were also other rumours, that farron wanted to go into coalition with labour which is the 'real reason he was pushed'.

I can't see a Tory ld coalition working now unless Tories agreed to single market. They could use that against lds too in a blame game. Then so could Labour.

Basically, until something more official comes out I'm refusing to believe any of it.

There are 90 available 2-bed properties under 2.5k in W11 according to Right Move. This is in the price range of flats in Grenfell that were privately owned and rented. The government has pledged additional funding. What's wrong with temporary requisitioning particularly for those whose kids go to local schools? Anyone seen any reports that estate agents have been contacted by the council? (Saw the one about the woman offering student flats).

under 2.5k a month rental....

And if you take into account studios and one-beds, even more properties available.

"It's very difficult to conclude that voters support or oppose an individual policy from a GE result, given that there are many policies in the manifestos, local factors, local personalities, etc. "

True - but I suppose you can say what you can't conclude from the GE is that most voters opposed brexit - although tbf I think there are opinion polls that suggest that most lab voters opposed it - about 60%? - still, you can't conclude that from GE results.

If you want to know what people really feel about brexit a referendum is the clearest (although still flawed) way - much clearer than a GE. But we've had one of those....

Did Keir Starmer say today that Uk will leave single market but customs union is on table - I haven't watched it?

According to Buzzfeed Ealing council have now taken over the Grenfell response.

A Labour-Controlled Council Says It Is Stepping In To Deal With The Grenfell Tower Fire Crisis
Exclusive: Ealing council has told Grenfell Tower fire survivors, residents and volunteers it is taking over operations from local authorities in Kensington and Chelsea.
www.buzzfeed.com/aishagani/another-london-council-says-it-is-stepping-in-to-deal-with?utm_term=.bn244lk0mZ#.fxP00Vpwb7

"I think an outside observer looking in would say voters had the chance to make clear they were against brexit - and as a whole in UK they didn't

Maybe, but only if the outside observer didn't really understand the political situation. "

True Lotis - I certainly don't really understand it, so that would be fair enough! That is a good point about fears of lds entering into another coalition with cons - although would lds really have done that without some commitment on a second ref, which cons would never have given? - therefore no coalition possible. But you never know what a political party will do if a coalition is on the table, I suppose.

Sorry to interrupt, but I really need to share this picture of the fire dogs in their little fire boots.

Ahhh their boots!

Nick Reeves - 48% @nickreeves9876
The British public were grossly misinformed about important issues relating to the referendum.
#LeaveLies #Brexit #Remain

Mark Hayward @ffsake
Even when not pushing deliberate lies and untruths many media commentators are woefully ignorant about EU 1/2
UK citizens have never been properly told about the benefits of EU membership & were blatantly lied to about 'benefits' of leaving 2/2

Charles Tannock @CharlesTannock
Sad& true but too late. To my eternal shame UK media unprepared & unwilling to give airtime to Remain MEPs like me to rebut Brexit arguments

There will not be a LD coalition with the Tories.

The party would collapse if the leadership tried it. The grass roots would mutiny because of their position on democracy, liberalism and brexit.

There just isn't enough common ground even with the idea to 'soften' Brexit.

And there isn't enough LDs to make it a viable option for the Tories either. Such a deal would make THEIR right of the party revolt. The number of unhappy tories vastly outweigh the total number of LDs.

I don't know why anyone is even talking about it with any seriousness. Its a complete non-starter this time round.

Even a supply and demand arrangement I would question the functioning ability of.

Nick Paget-Brown was on the world this weekend on R4. I think that's usually on at 1, I haven't listened to it yet.

How about a lab/lib dem coalition following a vote of no confidence? With the lib dems demanding concessions around brexit eg 'soft brexit' or even a second referendum in return for supporting them. Would that work? Do they have enough seats between them?