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Brexit

Westministenders: The Zombie PM

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 11/06/2017 22:19

Back from the dead, May carries on whilst the vultures circle.

She had tried to out smart her rivals by running of to the palace to tell the queen she could form a government before they could act.

Definitely she stood and pretended nothing had changed. Except everything had. The wrath of her party was unleashed and there was open revolt. She has been summoned to appear before men in grey suits tomorrow at 5pm to hear their verdict.

How do she decide to make amends and reach out to moderate Tories? By sleeping with the DUP. And appointing Gove to her Cabinet.

How long will this last? How long can it last?

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BigChocFrenzy · 14/06/2017 10:28

I suspect the country was not ready / too divided to elect Labour on a soft Brexit platform.
However, public attitudes seem to have shifted and will continue moving, as the govt muddle continues and the consequences of the alternatives become more understood.

We need time to win over the less ideological Leavers, so that there is majority public acceptance, if not support, for EEA / EFTA
This may only happen once MPs give their heads a wobble and finally take responsibility for representing their constituents to the best of their ability & knowledge.

Some Brexiters will continue to the bitter end saying "just leave" or indeed think we have array.

A stubborn minority will only believe how disastrous no deal / WTO would be after they actually live through it - even then they would probably blame the E27 and the traitorous Remainers.

smilethoyourheartisbreaking · 14/06/2017 10:30

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

citroenpresse · 14/06/2017 10:32

Neutralising student vote: Hope Labour are on to suggestions that if there IS going to be second election this year, planning it around times when students are graduating, and need to organise new postal votes etc, would certainly not boost their chances.. Surely that's too soon, but panic messages from academics seem to be circulating.

BigChocFrenzy · 14/06/2017 10:33

I can remember the crop of politicians in the 1960s (just) and 1970s who had served in WW2
They were vastly more responsible in considering the good of the country and its people, rather than playing disastrous political games.
They almost all accepted the post-WW2 consensus about the welfare state and paying for it.

Also, most knew better than to risk the lives of the armed forces just to suck up to the US

  • remember that Labour PM Harold Wilson kept us out of the VietNam slaughter, despite the anger of the US and the warnings of some Tory Atlantacists
PinkPeppers · 14/06/2017 10:37

May is in France having watch a match between France and England in Paris.. (she also met Macron who told her that the UK could come back into the eu if they wanted...)

0hCrepe · 14/06/2017 10:38

Yes I'm in that category. Labour voter, middle aged, educated, senior teacher with family, voted remain, no clue of the ins and outs but was against the racist undertones and lies in the leave campaign. After the initial outrage and disbelief I kind of accepted the leave means leave rhetoric by the time of this election. Thought it had to be done.
Not particularly interested in politics but have been working with Sen children and experiencing cut after cut with resignation. Jc offered an alternative. Now much more interested and learning lots.
So disappointed in what highly educated rich people in power have done.

LurkingHusband · 14/06/2017 10:38

One potential way forwards might be for Labour to coalesce around the proposal for a second referendum ? Because that would keep my vote.

One problem Brexit is always going to face is that if you have any options (e.g. "hard"/"soft") you have to then accept that "No" will outnumber the options put together. So "the will of the people" is not Brexit. It's Remain.

Or - to put it in simpler terms. More people won't want whatever Brexit we get than those that do.

Democracy ? And if it is, it will forever be remembered when we have governments with fewer votes but most MPs.

smilethoyourheartisbreaking · 14/06/2017 10:40

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

BigChocFrenzy · 14/06/2017 10:42

This thread just prompted me to check the news - dreadful fire
Guardian reports a baby survived being thrown out of a window.

We must absolutely ensure that emergency services - fire, police, ambulance, A&E - have sufficient resources to handle disasters.
Cutting services to the bone, so they struggle to carry out the day-to-day routine work, risks this.

I dread to think how services far outside London would cope, with much longer distances for reinforcements to travel in the crucial initial couple of hours, before things get out of control.

RedToothBrush · 14/06/2017 10:42

The Independent‏*@Independent*
DUP sources confirm Tory/DUP deal will not be announced today because of Grenfell Tower fire

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Peregrina · 14/06/2017 10:45

One potential way forwards might be for Labour to coalesce around the proposal for a second referendum ?

I really don't like the idea of a second Referendum - who is to say the tabloids would not attempt to swing it their way?
Having said that, despite villifying Corbyn and Labour, and lavishing praise on May, he has done substantially better than expected, and she has made a complete mess, so maybe their influence is waning?

0hCrepe · 14/06/2017 10:47

Devastating.

Peregrina · 14/06/2017 10:47

..does France not have any electricity or telecommunications?

Recall that when May was abroad somewhere - can't remember where but not just across the channel - she was quick to offer an opinion on the National Trust not putting Easter in its Egg Hunt event. Erroneously as it happens.

Now there is a major fire and not a peep, when she ought to be on the first Eurostar or plane back.

RedToothBrush · 14/06/2017 10:48

norman smith‏*@BBCNormanS*
Its understood there can be no statement in Parliament on #grenfelltower tragedy cos MPs not sworn in yet

WTF.

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Peregrina · 14/06/2017 10:50

What is stopping Theresa May or the Home Secretary saying something?

RedToothBrush · 14/06/2017 10:50

Sadiq Khan left to get on with it then.

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HashiAsLarry · 14/06/2017 10:53

At the very least she should make a public statement. Cameron would not have hidden like that.

BigChocFrenzy · 14/06/2017 10:54

Lh Asking the public to repeat referenda until they get the desired answer is a bad idea - as NS found - even when circumstances have changed.

Also, it is a copout wrt Brexit:
The E27 will NOT be interested in investing the time and resources on a deal that may be rejected in a referendum - that's feedback from Germany and probably everywhere else.
They are fed up with the UK, govt and voters, blundering about and messing everyone around
There's no time to organize another referendum and the E27 are unlikely to extend time for that.

UK politicians need to work out a deal. Only EEA / EFTA is remotely possible in the time - and even that will probably need an extension of the 2 years.

Parliament needs to don its Big Girl pants and get on with it.

Peregrina · 14/06/2017 10:55

Once again the public rally round and put the Government to shame.

whatwouldrondo · 14/06/2017 10:59

Sadiq has very quickly made a statement including addressing the issues that are being raised about it being an accident waiting to happen. Would we expect anything different but avoidance and obfuscation from the May government? Especially in relation to the less well off. I could see this becoming an emblem of this whole Tory era. You can see the smoke wherever you go in London this morning....

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 14/06/2017 11:00

waitingfortax.com/2017/06/14/on-whether-and-why-the-article-50-bill-is-flawed/

ON WHETHER AND WHY THE ARTICLE 50 BILL IS FLAWED

On the day the Government published its Article 50 Bill I wrote this piece setting out what seemed to be a technical flaw in the Bill.

In the following sub-paragraphs, I set the argument in its broader context. But in reading that context it will be helpful if you bear in mind the structure of Article 50, paragraph 1 of which requires a decision to withdraw in accordance with our constitutional requirements; and paragraph 2 of which requires notification of that decision:

(1) what the Bill – now of course an Act – does do is authorise the Prime Minister to notify the EU that we intend to leave the EU;

(2) what it does not do is make a decision that we should leave the EU;

(3) you search for such a decision in vain. Even if you extend your search beyond the Act. Despite what David Davis asserted in debates in Parliament, the Supreme Court was very clear that the Referendum was not legally a decision to withdraw. In private correspondence, the Brexit Secretary has pointed to facets of the broader political context but he has not pointed to any decision;

(4) the reason the Referendum was not a decision to withdraw is because, in enacting it, Parliament chose to make it advisory;

(5) the Supreme Court judgments do not demonstrate a laser-like focus on whether they are addressing the Article 50.1 limb (the decision to withdraw) or the Article 50.2 limb (the notification of that decision). The (likely) reason for this is that the Claimants decided – and eventually the Government agreed – that for the purposes of the point before the Supreme Court the difference between the two was only formal;

(6) however, the structure of Article 50 is quite clear: it is only the decision that need be made in accordance with our constitutional requirements. There are no formalities governing the notice itself – it could be made via a tweet; and

(7) remember point (6) and the Supreme Court judgments are brought into some focus. In addressing, as they do, what our constitution requires they must (primarily) be concerned with the decision rather than its notification.

This sequence of reasoning has animated a number of campaigners. Might it have as a consequence that, legally speaking, the Article 50 clock has yet to start because we have yet to decide to leave. And that what was notified to Donald Tusk was a nothing? So that Parliament would have now to choose whether we want to leave the EU?

I’ve sat apart from those discussions for various reasons. One of them was that I hadn’t understood why the Government did things in this way? Why did it not enact a decision? Why no section 1(1) of the European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Act 2017 saying: “The United Kingdom intends to withdraw from the European Union”?

It is inconceivable to me that this omission was accidental. The short Act is drafted with some care. By way of simple illustration I spent some time with a leading Constitutional Law QC examining whether it was effective to notify a decision to withdraw the United Kingdom from Euratom before concluding that, despite initial appearances, it was.

But here’s a speculation and one – I think – that has the ring of truth.

If you were determined to leave the EU you would not want the decision to do so to be sourced in an Act of Parliament. After all, a thing that is done by MPs can be undone by MPs. But source that decision in the Referendum, source it in ‘the will of the people’, and it cannot be undone otherwise than by the people whose future will you could then choose to mute. And the fact that, legally, in the Referendum the people had not decided to leave but simply to advise Parliament, well, that would be a nuance too far for Parliament. It would lack the will or the courage or the perspicacity to seek to amend the Bill to introduce a decision to leave.

It takes no great effort for me to imagine a conversation between David Davis and James Eadie QC (First Treasury Counsel and the Government’s key legal advisor). Davis says that for his own reasons he wants the Act not to make the decision to leave the EU. Eadie responds by observing that to do so would leave the Act with a technical flaw. Davis says that, surely, no judge would dare declare the withdrawal notification a nullity. Surely?

And what does Eadie respond? Well, someone will have to go to court to find out.

HashiAsLarry · 14/06/2017 11:00

JC, Lucas/Bartley issued statements two hours ago.
Farron early this morning.
Not sure who counts as ukips voice anymore so will leave them off.

Where's Wally TM?

LurkingHusband · 14/06/2017 11:05

I really don't like the idea of a second Referendum - who is to say the tabloids would not attempt to swing it their way?

I think the power of the tabloids has been shown to be brittle at best. Didn't someone post some stats showing that only 50% of Daily Mail readers voted ?

Generals often comment that armies are always equipped to fight the last war. I think in terms of media effectiveness, we're seeing that with newspapers.

A casual stroll through various non-aligned forums I frequent shows that the casual leaver - big red bus, straight bananas - is confounded and confused at where we are. Which is that if nothing else, one leave lie has been well and truly busted. That lie being that it would be a cakewalk, and that the rest of the world would be queuing up to sign up post-EU-UK too everything.

With that in mind, they are probably unlikely - despite (or maybe because of) media pressure - to re-vote leave.

Any change is a risk, including no-change. But when it comes to rational decisions, balancing a known risk (staying in the EU) against an unknown risk (leaving the EU) nearly always comes out in favour of the known risk path.

NancyWake · 14/06/2017 11:09

The awful events at White City and the response recall events after the London riots. Ken was in the area on the streets immediately, and BoJo, the actual mayor, was on holiday and didn't want to come home until pressured.

BigChocFrenzy · 14/06/2017 11:13

Bojo closed 10 London fire stations, to save money

3 local fire stations, Westminster (4 miles away), Knightsbridge (3 miles) and Manchester square (3 miles) were recently sold, hence increasing time for some of the reinforcing fire crews to arrive.
The initial minutes are obv critical, in reducing the size and spread of a fire

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