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Brexit

Westministenders: The Zombie PM

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 11/06/2017 22:19

Back from the dead, May carries on whilst the vultures circle.

She had tried to out smart her rivals by running of to the palace to tell the queen she could form a government before they could act.

Definitely she stood and pretended nothing had changed. Except everything had. The wrath of her party was unleashed and there was open revolt. She has been summoned to appear before men in grey suits tomorrow at 5pm to hear their verdict.

How do she decide to make amends and reach out to moderate Tories? By sleeping with the DUP. And appointing Gove to her Cabinet.

How long will this last? How long can it last?

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BigChocFrenzy · 14/06/2017 09:05

This last GE was definitely better to lose.
Power atm is a poisoned chalice
Labour would be no more able to square the impossible circle with Brexit than the Tories.
However, it is only the Tories who got us into this mess, so they deserve the political disaster it brings.

Any replacement Tory leader would have to be "annointed" without any leadership contest even among MPs - there is no more time to waste.
They can't agree among themselves who this should be

Also, that leader would have a credibility problem - the THIRD Tory PM in about one year !
This might mean yet another GE soon
However, for the next few months at least, the Tories know they would be punished badly for the mess they have got the country into

So, they are trapped with May until they figure out how to replace her and still hold off a GE

ChardonnaysPrettySister · 14/06/2017 09:07

I don't like Corbyn and I didn't vote for Labour.

I would see a more flexible and thought out approach to Brexit as a silver lining though, If they indeed had one.

I don't think they do though, because is Brexit unworkable. So they took it out of the equation for now and concentrated on austerity and it worked for them.
Long term, however, it's not helpful.

BigChocFrenzy · 14/06/2017 09:08

Some individual politicians on both sides are anonymously talking up EEA / EFTA Brexit
However, it is far too early for Labour as a whole to even think of taking that risk, of being branded saboteurs by Leave voters and media.

They are keeping quiet, because they didn't cause any of this Brexit mess
The crap will land on the govt

HashiAsLarry · 14/06/2017 09:11

@iandunt
Long-Bailey says “some element” of free movement may continue to secure access to single market
She fudges the single market issue a bit, but her comments much more sophisticated than McDonnell/Corbyn: aware of need for compromises,
aware of existence and importance of non-tariff barriers.

Our pro fox hunting anti wild animals in circus ban mp was representing Tory animal welfare last night so may be too hungover to even mention what's happening over the other side of London. Meanwhile our labour candidate is desperately trying to get aid packages together to help those affected in the fire.

BigChocFrenzy · 14/06/2017 09:18

gloom about Brexit disaster & govt ability to handle it:

"The tables are reversed, with Britain in its most precarious state since the financial crisis"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/06/13/tables-reversed-britain-precarious-state-since-financial-crisis/

"The government’s approach to leaving the European Union has been shattered.
A viable way forward requires goodwill across parliament and in the EU."
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/plea-bargaining-jz9ntck7l

"weak and unstable is a position we can only aspire to on Brexit.
Things are far worse than that.
Snookered might be a better description."
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/theresa-may-s-only-brexit-option-is-dodging-the-cliff-edge-cjdqxnpxc

0hCrepe · 14/06/2017 09:20

I think the issues labour focused on are completely relevant because they address things that are most important in everyday real life: poverty, health and education. Whatever happens with brexit or other political dramas, these things need to be prioritised and can therefore be the guiding principles. If they get involved in brexit too much they're open to losing sight of the true values being promoted. And then getting blamed for any negative outcome as bigchoc says. brexit has proved to be very divisive and it's prob a split in all parties.
Best to see what unfolds before coming up with a clear strategy that works for most normal people.

ChardonnaysPrettySister · 14/06/2017 09:29

Of course the issues Labour focused are valid and relevant.

It seems however that they sidelined Brexit because it's too much of a vote loser, so I doubt they have a plan.

I would very much welcome a cross party approach to Brexit. Effectively saying "Not my circus, not my monkeys" won't be helpful for their voters long term.

I disagree with the Conservative take on Brexit, but cannot see anything constructive on Labour side.

Just bloody get together and work it out.

NancyWake · 14/06/2017 09:30

The problem is that if Labour go for hard Brexit the hit to the economy will such that many of their health, education and poverty promises will be undeliverable. We will be plunged into austerity that may feasibly be worse than the last one.

RedToothBrush · 14/06/2017 09:31

Cuts to fire service in London made by Boris Johnson likely to be in the next news wave... Bloody awful events on news this morning.

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BigChocFrenzy · 14/06/2017 09:32

(Times paywall) https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/theresa-may-s-only-brexit-option-is-dodging-the-cliff-edge-cjdqxnpxc

"oddly, the very weakness of the government is Theresa May’s one remaining source of strength.
Fearing another election, Tory MPs don’t want to move against her precipitously.

They see her as a Jenga brick that if moved might bring the whole tower crashing down."

"Labour has designed its position to allow it to vote down virtually everything.

Its stance is a classic of opposition policy-making.
Labour insists any deal must deliver leaving the single market while guaranteeing all the benefits of the single market;
it must put jobs first, protect workers’ rights and end free movement.
Without a deal like this they would not be in favour of leaving — but they want to emphasise that they are indeed in favour of leaving."
Hmm < Labour really have "cake and eat it" >

"Mrs May should appreciate that there is now a greatly increased chance of the Brexit effort resulting in a chaos she did not intend and does not want.

There are certainly some Tory zealots who don’t get this,
but the Conservative Party cannot be the party that lets businesses and investment leave the country and destroy jobs due to a political crisis.
< that's an existential crisis for the Tories, but their own shortsighted fault >

If it cannot offer prosperity and stability, what can it offer?

So she should accept that the best we can now do is avoid a cliff edge.
< a disaster entirely created by internal Tory party politics >

It’s not just that we should not allow ourselves to be bounced into a long- term arrangement that isn’t quite right by the EU’s timetable.

It’s that there is no majority for any permanent resolution and no time, given how far advanced we are in the Article 50 timetable, to assemble one.

She should therefore announce that we intend to remain members of the European Economic Area — in other words, the single market — while we carry on negotiations after leaving the EU, even if this takes a while.

As Lord Owen has argued, the EEA is a flexible arrangement, which may allow us some control over immigration, and (although this point is contentious) is one we signed up to separately from EU membership.

It is hardly satisfactory.
It leaves all the big questions to be settled.
But it’s only because it doesn’t settle anything that it might get a majority.

And, really, what else can we do?"
< that question is a major indictment of the disaster the Tories alone have created >

NancyWake · 14/06/2017 09:32

I don't dislike Corbyn, I think he was an effective back bench MP I just don't think he's the right leader.

He was in his element in the campaign but the hard graft of ruling the country if he ever got there, would expose as sizable flaws as May.

NancyWake · 14/06/2017 09:37

Its stance is a classic of opposition policy-making.
Labour insists any deal must deliver leaving the single market while guaranteeing all the benefits of the single market; it must put jobs first, protect workers’ rights and end free movement. Without a deal like this they would not be in favour of leaving — but they want to emphasise that they are indeed in favour of leaving."
Hmm

This was precisely my fear from the manifesto - they display the same cake and eat beliefs.

BigChocFrenzy · 14/06/2017 09:41

Creating a dreadful disaster for internal party reasons & blind ideology, then demanding your opponents help fix it: Angry
very clear where all the blame lies here.

btw, I would say exactly the same if 2 Labour PMs has made the same disastrous decisions leading to this chaos.
However, it's the Tories wot dun it

The first step is for the PM to admit it clearly and apologise to the country,
then ask other parties for help
and accept that this means they would have to be fully involved in the discussion, possibly a cross party Brexit dept with ministers from Labour too.
Help means the Tories have to offer Labour some power, whether it be policy changes on cuts, benefits, nhs, schools or just on Brexit.

Of course, politically it would be best for Labour to let the Tories stew in their own crap
then reap the benefit in the GEs after a Brexit crash.
Hopefully they won't choose this if the Tories ask openly for help.

RedToothBrush · 14/06/2017 09:41

Also the former housing minister, Gavin Barwell is now PM's new chief of staff.

Safe to say this is a tragedy but also a scandal.

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0hCrepe · 14/06/2017 09:42

Loads of people say that about him not being a good leader. What are the flaws? Is he not arrogant/posh enough?

Peregrina · 14/06/2017 09:43

"I can't see anyone else who could conceivably take over as prime minister other than Theresa May," says Ken Clarke #r4today
Wow.

Clarke does not disappoint me. I think it's a way of saying - you wouldn't listen to me, so sort this shit storm out yourself. He's 76 and realises that the time for him to hold high office is past, and that he doesn't want to retire tainted with Brexit.

PattyPenguin · 14/06/2017 09:44

One slight fly in the ointment of the EEA option...

Can we be part of it without being a member of EFTA?

If we can't, and we ask to join EFTA, isn't there a good chance that at least three of the four members (Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein) will blackball us because we might very well shift the balance too much?

BigChocFrenzy · 14/06/2017 09:46

Nancy Labour's "cake and eat it" are their (impossible) political demands to support a Tory Brexit.
It is unlikely that any of them believe this is actually possible.

It is just "the function of the Official Opposition is to oppose" originally said by Disraeli iirc
Great party political strategy for an Opposition
Not intended for a govt - they knew they wouldn't be in govt when they wrote the manifesto

BigChocFrenzy · 14/06/2017 09:51

Patty The EFTA countries are unhappy, but would support it as the least bad option - no country in EFTA or E27 benefits overall from the UK crashing out.

BUT they have made it clear that there can be no special rules for the UK, e.g. wrt EFTA court, ECJ, free movement of workers (slightly different to EU Fom)

The only real concession would be to add financial passporting - vital for UK services exports, but not anything that hurts the EFTA countries. So, they'd be fine with that

BigChocFrenzy · 14/06/2017 09:54

Fianna Fáil plans to start contesting NI elections from 2019.

The SDLP are discussing merging with them.
FF are further to the right than Fianna Gael and the Irish Labour Party , but it seems the more Nationlist FF stance trumps economic policy.

Does anyone knowledgeable about NI politics think this will help the SDLP
to win Stormont and / or Westminster seats with this change from 2019 ?

I presume it would at least help their campaign finances and tech resources.

Eeeeeowwwfftz · 14/06/2017 09:57

What is the anti-Brexit position that would be popular with voters?

Timmy F tried one and we saw how well that did him.

HashiAsLarry · 14/06/2017 09:59

From private eye

Westministenders: The Zombie PM
NancyWake · 14/06/2017 10:05

Nancy Labour's "cake and eat it" are their (impossible) political demands to support a Tory Brexit. It is unlikely that any of them believe this is actually possible.

There's no obligation to support a Tory Brexit, they'd be doing the country a massive favour if they didn't.

I think Labour is divided like the Tories. There's the Remainers, the pragmatic soft Brexiters and the hard Brexit cake-and-eat-it-ers.

NancyWake · 14/06/2017 10:13

Loads of people say that about him not being a good leader. What are the flaws? Is he not arrogant/posh enough?

Posh and arrogant are major flaws not strengths, look at Cameron.

It's in Corbyn's favour that he's neither. But on the minus side I don't think he's very bright, which matters when you have to get your head round Brexit complexity, and he's not terribly articulate. He's idealistic, which has its own charm, but needs to be grounded in practical reality to go forward, and he has not managed to formulate a plan behind which the Labour Party can unite.

Personally I believe the Labour Party could have won the election on a soft Brexit ticket with the right leader.

NancyWake · 14/06/2017 10:26

I never liked Alastair Campbell when he was in government but the excellent 'first world failed state' interview he did (and the rest of his Brexit analysis too) shows how switched on he is. His grasp of what's going on and what needs to happen is spot on.

The last crop of politicians - Campbell and Blair, Major, Heseltine and Clark put the current lot to shame.