Westministenders: The Zombie PM

[RedToothBrush]

Back from the dead, May carries on whilst the vultures circle.

She had tried to out smart her rivals by running of to the palace to tell the queen she could form a government before they could act.

Definitely she stood and pretended nothing had changed. Except everything had. The wrath of her party was unleashed and there was open revolt. She has been summoned to appear before men in grey suits tomorrow at 5pm to hear their verdict.

How do she decide to make amends and reach out to moderate Tories? By sleeping with the DUP. And appointing Gove to her Cabinet.

How long will this last? How long can it last?

Big Choc, they should be. Its propaganda that fits with their own world view.

Its 'the Dog Ate My Queen's Speech' excuse.

Just as good as the walking in a field of wheat that has made even my 12yo laughed and sniggered.

I can report from Germany that Britain has become a laughing stock
We used to have a reputation for being eccentric, but solidly reliable in a crisis.
That respect has gone now

To be followed by investment, and the UKs much-vaunted credit rating ?

It wasn't the only reason given, but one key reason for "austerity" which was peddled previously was it would enable the UK to maintain it's AAA credit rating making it easier (and cheaper) to borrow.

Tom Watson asking questions about Gove's appointment Have Labour finally grown a backbone. Will there finally be some Opposition?

Washington Post definitely not impresssed by Tory Party antics:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/pressure-in-britain-builds-on-theresa-may-to-step-aside-as-her-party-plots-her-possible-ouster/2017/06/10/e5755a08-4d52-11e7-987c-42ab5745db2estory.html?utmm_term=.8bae85d27db6

"If May does move out of 10 Downing Street,
it would be the second time in the past year that Britain has been left leaderless after a Tory prime minister gambled and lost in calling a national vote."

< yes, I don't know how the Tories earned their reputation for calm efficiency, but this last year and the next few months should end it >

Also, I'd missed quite how scathing Katie Perrior was after quitting:

"Katie Perrior, who was until recently the prime minister’s director of communications,
also implied that May was out of her depth after being elevated from home secretary to prime minister last July."

< yes, I've felt all along that May was a very mediocre cabinet minister, who was promoted far above her capability level - and then her ego carried her away >

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/11/eu-threatens-year-long-delay-in-brexit-talks-over-uks-negotiating-stance?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
EU threatens year-long delay in Brexit talks over UK's negotiating stance
Exclusive: May to be told it would take 12 months to draft new mandate if she insists on discussing trade and divorce bill at same time

An EU source disclosed that Brussels had also been secretly briefing Downing Street on the 27 member states’ negotiating position for months, well ahead of it being public, to allow the government to shape its response.

“They have had everything, sometimes before senior people here have seen the positions”, the source said. “May has known about the sequencing of talks since last September. None of this has been a surprise to her.”

Put this in the context of things like Gibraltar and the government reaction which was one of total shock. Everyone following this knew about the issue. The government even if they didn't would have been told about it. And they STILL acted as if they were in total shock.

Did they ignore the EU briefing or is it careful media campaign to try and discredit the EU? The latter would be a dangerous game but seems a likely one. One that makes the current position much more dangerous than if May had acted responsibly.

Lawyers are starting to discuss postponing the Queens speech ...

How long can the "delay" last, before we are into the scenario of a
coup having been enacted ?

I do not understand your question.

I wonder if you have assumed postponing the Queen's Speech means also
postponing the summoning of the new Parliament. I have seen nothing to
suggest that the latter will be postponed from tomorrow.
While it's uncommon, and can have undesirable knock-on effects on
Parliamentary time, postponing the Queen's Speech isn't a major
constitutional issue. parliament and government can continue perfectly
well without it.

No, this is not true. At least, not now. The government are still in
"purdah". They can't, for example, start Brexit negotiations. (Of course
they may try to do so anyway, deepening our national crisis.)

See the Cabinet Manual [1].

2.16 (p22):

| 2.16 As long as there is signifjcant doubt following an election |

over the Government's ability to command the confjdence of the | House
of Commons, certain restrictions on government activity | apply; see
paragraphs 2.27-2.34.

2.27 (p24):

| Restrictions on government activity |
| 2.27 While the government retains its responsibility to govern and |

ministers remain in charge of their departments, governments are |

expected by convention to observe discretion in initiating any | new
action of a continuing or long-term character in the period |

immediately preceding an election, immediately afterwards if the |

result is unclear, and following the loss of a vote of | confjdence.
In all three circumstances essential business must | be allowed to
continue.22

[1]
www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/60641/cabinet-manual.pdf

Pink The UK ranks at the bottom with Greece and is the only OECD economy in which workers have suffered a decline in real wages since 2007, whereas workers in other countries have had real increases, see bar chart.

It's no wonder after so many years of decline that many voters are angry and frustrated.
The rich are getting richer; the other 90% are paying for that

imo, a good chunk are basically voting in protest against whatever side they see as the "establishment" in both the EU ref and the GE

The only major OECD economy to suffer a decline
We are with the perennial basket cases of (much smaller economies) Portugal & Greece

And as for one of the problems of Boris as PM .... everywhere he goes, someone will whip out a poster like so ...

Even Theresa "dim" May wasn't so idiotic as to have that in her closet.

Lurking, the issue was when May rushed to the Queen saying she could form a government BEFORE doing a deal.

This did not happen in 2010. The deal was made before anyone went to see the Queen.

I said the other day, May was acting prematurely to save her own neck and was not in line with protocol.

The Queen will be LIVID at the delay to the speech I'm sure. Anything that breaks protocol with regard to the Queen is a big no no.

I do think that the Queen would step in at some point, if this went on indefinitely though for this reason, even though that would be a real constitutional moment. Even if it was a leaked comment that appeared in the press somehow.

I'm guessing that she's biting tongue because its clear there has been an intervention by the Cabinet after May's 'Nothing Has Changed' speech.

I'm not too worried - at this stage.

But yes, May and democracy and the bull in the china shop approach.

I'd love to be the fly on the wall for the next private meeting between the Queen and May. I hope I live long enough for stuff about their relationship to become public as I suspect it will be the stuff of legend.

I would pay good money to watch TM try and "engage with young people"

I assume the Queen's speech is being delayed because May has found, like many PMs before her, how difficult it is to negotiate with hardline Ulster unionists.

They are chaotic, make unreasonable & unrealistic demands, they are the "Party of No" and they sometimes go back on what everyone thought was previously agreed.
< oops, like her own party then ! >

"Yep. For anyone at all reliant on the NHS, Brexit is insanity. From both a funding and a staffing perspective, as if we didn't have enough problems with both already.'

EU nurse applicants drop by 96% since Brexit vote
<a class="break-all" href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-40248366?intlink_from_url=www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-2017-40231623&link_location=live-reporting-story" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-40248366?intlink_from_url=www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-2017-40231623&link_location=live-reporting-story

"Last July, 1,304 nurses from the EU joined the Nursing and Midwifery Council register, compared to 46 in April this year, a fall of 96%.
The Health Foundation said the findings could not be more stark and said they should act as a "wake-up call"."

What a hames May and co have made of this!

The Nasty Party and The Party of No.

There's a B movie right there.

From an article in yesterday's sunday times.

Boris. Innate Laziness.
Good stuff.

I think any politician who can survive being stuck out on a line like the washing, in the view of millions, has the gall to stroll through any embarrassment.
That photo of him waving his little Union Jacks adorns any German article about him, btw.

Bojo remains the bookies fav
More important, the Tory members' darling.
Not the MPs' fav, because they know him, but they also know his charm & cheek is a great vote-winner < baffling to some of us, but since he won London before, anything is possible >

Do they not realise it's Royal Ascot next week. HMQ is otherwise engaged From Tuesday on.

Isn't it amazing that a horse race takes precedent over installing a government.

You would not want to be the pm who openly lied to the queen, delayed her speech then made her miss any of ascot.

reaction.life/can-minority-conservative-government-survive-lets-look-maths/
Can a minority Conservative government survive? Let’s look at the maths

I like this. It talks about how minority government can survive. Mainly if they have parties to the left and right of them.

It works socially because the DUP are to the right socially, but then it falls down because the Cons are the most right wing on Brexit - implying a softer option has to occur or the government collapses.

It also points out the difficulty of a Lab lead minority - it would need the support of the DUP too and given its Corbyn that isn't really an option. Not to mention the situation with the Cons have more seats than them in England.

Its funny. You'd think those amazing negotiators would have nailed the DUP negotiations by now considering they think they could do the a50 stuff in two years.

Lurking, the issue was when May rushed to the Queen saying she could form a government BEFORE doing a deal.
This did not happen in 2010. The deal was made before anyone went to see the Queen.
I said the other day, May was acting prematurely to save her own neck and was not in line with protocol.

Ah, point of difference, then !

I read your suggestion on Friday, and it did seem to fit ...

Presumably, the Queen will be taking things in good faith ? So assuming Treeza did rock up on Friday, and say "Don't worry, I have a plan", then protocol and keeping the Queen out of party politics would require a public "oh, very well, carry on".

But if things start to unravel, or fall apart, then Treeza will - effectively - have lied to the Monarch.

I imagine we are not at that point yet, but I'm starting to think there must be some very nervous people around Treeza at the moment.

Is there any precedent for lying to the Monarch ? Is there any punishment ?

And, since we are talking Monarchy here, I found myself thinking the other day that the only way things could get worse would be if we had to deal with a royal funeral and coronation on the next few weeks.

Like once-in-a-lifetime weather events tend to cluster together ....

The dependence of the UK on doctors and especially specialist surgeons from the E27 is significant.
The NHS will experience longer queues for treatment as some inevitably leave because of the EU ref and aftermath:

Worth noting that Labour did not pledge to reverse austerity in their manifesto. The institute of fiscal studies picked up on this, and stated that the poorest / most vulnerable in society were most affected and not helped by Labour. This is somewhat perverse considering all the election campaigning and selling of a vision of Britain that is compassionate and looks after its own.

The LDs did. The Institute for Fiscal Studies rated them best for those at the very bottom economically. Very few picked up on this.

This was doing the rounds pre election. Of course it runs against the narrative of Tories being safe hands and labour being negligent so...