Westministenders: Strong and Stable Theresa Date with Destiny

[RedToothBrush]

WELLLLL

Its just before 2.00am.

So far its the YouGov model all the way. Still a long way to go but, the Cons are not getting the top of their target list and Labour are doing very well in seats they just 'shouldn't be'.

Corbyn is now favourite to take the poison chalice of Brexit, but they may not be the largest party yet.

This is looking right now like 1974 not 1983.

May's potted regardless. I look forward to her resignation speech. Its still entirely possible that our next government is a Tory Minority under another leader.

The LDs are having a rough night so far. They are loosing deposits all over the place as they are squeezed out. But they still might hold the balance of power yet. Though they are pledged not to go into coalition.

Another election in the autumn? Brexit delayed and going soft and squishy?

I've been lurking on these threads since they started, and have found the level of knowledge and discussion so high that I haven't really been able to contribute anything more, but I do thank Red and everyone else for it.

Something that occurred to me this morning is that now the UKIP vote has basically collapsed across the country and they no longer have an MP, can we expect to see somewhat less airtime devoted to them?

Apparently May has hardly talked to the Cabinet so far....

How is it that the Lib Dems won12 seats with 2.67million votes, while the DUP won 10 seats with just 292,300 votes?

Something a bit undemocratic going on here.

Upthread several people wondered if Sinn Fein would take their seats given how exceptional the circumstances seem to be. I have to say that I very much doubt it: the requirement to pledge allegiance to Her Maj is a total red line for them but I hope the dilemma of resisting Brexit gives them pause

DUP has said no special status in Europe. That has to mean a soft brexit. A hard brexit hurts NI too much.

SF won't take their seats. But they will take advantage of any mess the DUP are involved in.......they will watch and wait

Explanation of numbers in terms of rebellions:

650 - 6 Sinn Fein = 644 Seats Taken in the HoC
644 / 2 = 322 Seats for a Majority.
Conservatives currently on 319 with one to declare. So in theory 3 short if you include the Speaker in their numbers.

With the DUP's 10 seats they are 7 over.

7 seats.

More than 7 rebels - either behind the scenes or in an actual vote - and May is in BIG BIG trouble.

And Ken Clarke is still there too.

Kensington will have a third recount today. previous counts have given it 30 to 40 votes to Labour

KENSINGTON!

@skynewsbreak
German government spokeswoman says it will not comment on the outcome of the General Election out of respect and politeness

If only there was some kind of word for this

Sky News Newsdesk‏ @SkyNewsBreak
German government spokeswoman says it will not comment on the outcome of the General Election out of respect and politeness

Bahahahahaaaa!

Red Sorry I meant the exit polls, yes they had been giving it all week but then the seat by seat exit poll gave Tania a 67% chance of winning. That was when I went to bed, woke up to much better news. That certainly points up a hole in their methodology, to miss 10000 voters? There were a lot of postal voters though, and from all age groups. As well as the young people who turned up to vote I know a lot took the tactical decision to vote in their home constituency of Twickenham rather than the university constituencies, not one any methodology could really cover adequately

Hashi

Care to share Peregrina

I don't know if I have much information - I haven't seen an age split, or if an informal estimate was given out, I was a bit too sleepy to take it in. Turnout for us was 75.7%. Of the stations I was telling at, one was a pretty mixed group with mothers coming after dropping children off at school and the elderly. The other one was quieter, with probably more older people. There weren't all that many younger people - neither were particularly studenty areas. I did notice that the student areas and a couple of socially liberal areas piled up LibDem votes, with the villages mostly being Conservative - although not all. (But it was so much touch and go, with constant mutterings from the counters about recounts.)

The local Churches have been organising election hustings for at least 40 years, with the LibDems and Labour performing strongly. Nicola Blackwood did not help herself there by being 'too busy' to attend. She did look tearful at the count, but it didn't stop her waffling on during her speech.

'German government spokeswoman says it will not comment on the outcome of the General Election out of respect and politeness'

Oh burn!

OberonTheHopeful I bloody hope so. It was ridiculous the amount of airtime they were given when they had Carswell as their single solitary MP, but now they are obliterated and utterly irrelevant and I hope Question Time remember that.

Farage will continue to be a constant though. Sadly.

I wonder how many pieces of paper they wrote on and screwed up before they came up with that one!

Peregrina Interesting, it was the champagne I was sharing though

Oh some great lunatic stuff coming from our too bonkers even for UKIP ex Kipper

It was the rich pseudo intelligentsia what did it, watch for your job, your bank, your Council and your mobile provider...... makes a change from immigrants and the Germans...

whatwouldrondo, Twickenham is not a typical constituency. London with a particularly high remain vote and was Con v LD. Similar pattern occurred in my constituency but it was a Lab v Con and is Northern so the effect is not so pronounced. But same thing. Being different is why its more difficult to predict. Its notable that the Scottish seats were particular out on the same token.

David Allen Green‏*@davidallengreen*

1. May's Brexit Gambles - in rough chronological order.
2. Appointing Boris, Fox and Davis to key positions.

Unlikely to work well, but still uncertain.

1. Creating two pop-up government departments.

Caused delay, disorganisation, turf-wars etc in Whitehall - but no disaster yet.

1. Committing UK to ending free movement and removing jurisdiction of ECJ.

Self-inflicted wound, limiting legal position.

1. Committing UK to Article 50 notification by end of March, regardless of whether UK prepared.

Achieved - but at cost of other problems.

1. Explicitly ruling out membership of Single Market and Customs Union.

Further self-inflicted wound, limiting negotiating position.

1. Threatening security cooperation in badly drafted Article 50 letter.

Yet another self-inflicted wound, limiting negotiating position.

1. Each of these were gambles in the sense that there was a risk of no or bad return as a consequence of decision made.
2. But by April few (if any) of these gambles had (yet) shown bad or no return.

So May was emboldened. One more turn of pitch-and-toss. 10. But May's miscalculation in calling the election was not a one-off, out of nowhere. Just another example of a trend. /ends

Peregrina Interesting, it was the champagne I was sharing though

Ah thanks - too sleepy to think straight. The other two counting agents in the family went to bed at 6, but I decided to catch up on these threads!

BTW I never go in there but what is happening in the Brexit Arms today?

Matthew d'Ancona‏ @MatthewdAncona

Dear Theresa: No deal is better than a bad deal #NotTheDUP

The Brexit arms?

Most are cruising down a river in Egypt

Peregrina: you can hear the sound of champagne corks being forced back into the bottles from hear!

Lots of celebrating Clegg's loss etc, and much comment on how ironic it all is for "the left" that the DUP will be in coalition.

In the Barmy Arms there was some very weird Brexit related sexual dominance stuff involving Clegg, I really wish I hadn't looked. Otherwise the usual chuntering about Brexit still means Brexit.....

David Allen Green‏*@davidallengreen*

1. Can Article 50 be revoked?

Nobody knows for certain. Legal arguments on both sides.

1. There is no mention of revocation on the face of Article 50.
2. But then Article 50 is an atrocious piece of legal drafting.

Written by diplomats, not lawyers. It shows.

1. Article 50 was never intended to be used.
2. There can be no serious doubt that the an Article 50 notification can be revoked if all 28 member states agree.
3. That is not because Article 50 provides for such a revocation - it doesn't. It is just Realpolitik.
4. The real question is whether it can be revoked unilaterally - by the UK.
5. One one hand, most notices (and notifications) in law can be withdrawn.
6. But on other hand, unilateral revocation would undermine scheme of Article. Two year period would be pointless, if stop/start allowed.

10. All a departing member state would need to do to side-step two year limit and gain better negotiating position is revoke and re-notify. 11. Fwiw, I genuinely do not know how the European Court of Justice would determine the question. And only that court can. And it hasn't. 12. And those who quote the author(s) intentions for Article 50, all one say is: they should done a better job of drafting it. Frankly. 13. So nobody knows if Article 50 is unilaterally revocable, especially those pundits with certain opinions about it. What a mess. /ends.

Sarah Wollaston‏ @sarahwollaston (COn - Totnes)

1. Overall I'm very concerned about consequences of a hung Parliament & what this means for the future & crucial negotiations with the EU
2. Fox hunting & changes to social care were turning points in how people felt about the PM in highly personalised campaign
3. Hope we never again have such a negative campaign. The public just don't want US-style attack politics
4. I cannot see how the inner circle of special advisers can continue in post. Needs to be far more inclusive in future

Statements from Nicola Sturgeon and Tim Farron imminent.