Westministenders: The Election Car Crash

[RedToothBrush]

I was thinking about how I could sum up the general election campaign and well. This said it all.

Since you ask this is the £350m on a bus approach to Brexit - not saying I agree but would clearly demonstrate TM is indeed up for No Deal.

Stop all funding to the EU immediately and replace all current EU funding coming into the UK with our own money. Leave the EU to try to negotiate with us to give us benefits in return for our net contribution.

Keep to the current no trade barriers regime and wait for EU to blink first. Start negotiating with 3rd parties outside the Customs Union.

Guarantee UK residence rights to all EU Nationals in the UK under FoM at Art 50 trigger point. Guarantee right of return to UK citizens living in EU. Move to non-EU immigration arrangements for future.

As this is not what TM has ever suggested I can only assume she is not serious about Brexit.

The reason why I want a clear left alternative in Labour is that unless there is a legitimate outlet to express anger at cuts, or at a recession after disorderly / WTO Brexit,
then imo anger will be expressed in violent civil disorder, with many probably turning to the far right.
So, riots and burning city centers, possibly mass attacks on easily identifiable BME groups.

As this is not what TM has ever suggested I can only assume she is not serious about Brexit.

What do you mean? Do you mean you don't think she seriously wants UK to leave EU? Or that she's not serious about brokering a successful relationship UK-EU post Brexit?

p.s. I like your Brexit plan. It's the only most sensible one I've seen in almost 12 months

Not even economic war, just a crashing sound as the UK economy falls down the cliff
Swiftly followed by the inevitable apologetic cap in hand begging to be allowed back into the club, albeit on far far worse terms than we had before.

I actually think, perhaps mistakenly, that the Leftward shift argument in Labour is already won. However, win or lose, I think the Conservatives will be in civil war over where to turn given the shambles that is their GE campaign. If they get a 100+ majority this will just embolden those on the backbenches to sound off and undermine. If they get a reduced majority they will just be hamstrung into 5 years of do nothing manoeuvring much like the last 2. If they lose then it could all get ugly quite quickly.

www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article165299374/Mays-spontane-Harte-Hand-Politik-folgt-der-Methode-Erdogan.html

Article from German news outlet Die Welt (The World) entitled "May's knee-jerk heavy-handed politics follows Erdogan's method"

It's worth running through auto-translate. I've repeatedly stated this and feel like I'm going a bit mad sometimes. May's speeches and actions are incredibly similar to Erdogan's. The Turkish population (who won 49.5% of the Nov 15 election re-vote) managed to have almost all of their rights stripped away within about 18 months. The 49.5% who support this man, along with their brainwashed enthusiasm and lack of education / critical thinking skills was indeed instrumental in achieving this. All in the name of nationalism and security.

howabout That would be a pointless approach, because at least within the 2 year A50, there is no time for a special deal, just 2 possible ones:
It is either WTO, or EEA /EFTA with ECJ & FOM - the negotiating would be to keep the same access for services

The Uk is legally obliged to pay the agreed contributions until Brexit happens. so at least until end March 2019
Otherwise, the UK would be taken to court and have fines to pay in addition.

After Brexit, of course the UK and refuse to pay anything and go the Patrick Minford route of no tariffs on any goods from any country - under WTO rules, the EU & UK must treat each other the same as the other 170 or somcountries in the world.

At risk for the E27 are up to 12% of their exports; the UK up to 45% of goods exported PLUS all the services, since these are not handled by WTO.

Some countries - e.g. Canada - may agree to a trade deal to come into effect the day after Brexit, on cut & paste basis of their current EU deal.
Many won't, so that means 5-10 years for new trade deals - or lomger, since the UK hasn't the negotiators to handle several in parallel.

"Guarantee right of return to UK citizens living in EU"
I may have misunderstood what you mean here. All UK citizens anywhere have automatic right of return to the UK.
It would be against international law for a country to prevent its own citizens returning

*he won (not "who" won)

Why not mother - he who pays the piper usually works very well for Germany when screwing over the rest of the Eurozone?

Weak I mean DC was intent on staying in the EU while opting out of all the benefits and TM seems intent on engineering a departure in name only while keeping all the worst bits from the ordinary citizens' pov.

If you are rich enough / big global corporate enough then trading blocks and restrictions or lack thereof are somewhat irrelevant except to the extent you have to manipulate the rules to your advantage.

There do seem to be misunderstandings / delusions in the Uk about what is possible wrt deal.
There is no significant desire in the E27 to break the 4 pillars, just to avoid the UK crashing out.
The balance of power lies far more with the E27

UK budget contributions are about 0.7% of UK GDP, less than that of Germany. Irritating to lose, but not disastrous.

German manufacturing leaders have said ensuring the future of the single market is more important than temporary disruption wrt loss of UK trade

Within 7-10 years, there certainly should be a customised deal with the E27
However, the UK has to manage from April 2019 until then

It would be against international law for a country to prevent its own citizens returning

Theresa May has repeated shown fuck all respect for international law. So that means nothing.

mother and Bigchoc re UK citizens in the EU. That is my point. It is not within the gift of the UK to guarantee the rights of UK citizens living in rEU. It only partially is even if we stayed within the EU as most rights are in fact conferred by Nation States.

But also, what about the UK citizens who don't bloody well want to come back just yet ?. We need right to remain in the EU countries we have made our homes in

What about them ?

I'm not being facetious. It's a serious question.

What about them ?

It seems we are being prepared for a government that won't give a shit about the people living in the UK. So why on earth would they be expected to worry about people who don't even live here ?

Mother If you've lived in an EU country for 5 years or more, them you probably have right of permanent residence there, just not the right to move to the other 26 countries.

I should have the right to remain by the end of my contract

In the interim, if you now have a job with an E27 employer, then worst case Brexit is they would apply for a visa for you to remain, just as e.g. my employer does now for scientists from India, Korea, China ...

If you are retired already, you may be screwed though

Bigchoc I didn't say I thought it was the best approach or one I endorsed but if the UK is serious about No Deal then it is far more convincing than a hard stare and some tough posturing.

The UK's net contribution to the whole EU budget would be a more relevant figure but no wish to rehash that ground.

The Eurozone needs to rebalance between Germany and espec Southern Europe. No amount of further imposed austerity will do it and currency unions only work with political unions and wealth adjusting mechanisms. Another good reason for the rEU to integrate more closely without the UK. Excuse my earlier emotive language.

What about them ?
It's also a fallacy that this is purely down to the member states themselves. The uk has a duty to all its citizens, regardless of whether they currently reside in the uk or not.
But then, we have entered the age where othering is perfectly acceptable

lh As a Uk expat, I am not expecting any help whatsoever from the UK govt.

I'm relying entirely on the German govt being logical and not vindictive against UK citizens that are of benefit to Germany

"Swiftly followed by the inevitable apologetic cap in hand begging to be allowed back into the club, albeit on far far worse terms than we had before."

....Which would cause huge problems in itself. A significant proportion of the country, and the far right, will not accept this. I am expecting a "traitors" narrative to become increasingly prominent when a deal (or no deal) emerges, whatever that deal is.
Counter intuitively, many people will become more nationalistic/isolationist the more the country suffers.
If I was to be pessimistic, I would predict civil disobedience and a rise in far right nationalism.