Westministenders: The Election Car Crash

[RedToothBrush]

I was thinking about how I could sum up the general election campaign and well. This said it all.

www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/06/jeremy-corbyns-surge-labours-poll-boost-real

Can't find the link, but The Guardian had a story about tory FB targeting young JC supporters to tell them their vote was pointless. It certainly seems to be the message of the brexit press. DT is running stories on how to subdue JC offspring. It's like the khmer rouge in reverse.

I remember feeling utterly sick in 1992 when Major pulled off his surprise win. Five years later, I rejoiced to see the Tories slaughtered and in disarray.

I am not sure whether history will repeat itself this time - the utterly sick bit, I expect, but then I expect May/her successor to gerrymander the constituency boundaries to ensure a Tory majority in perpetuity. Still if they win, I would hope that the shit storm which is Brexit helps to destroy them. How many more people will be destroyed with them ?That's my worry.

but The Guardian had a story about tory FB targeting young JC supporters to tell them their vote was pointless

Ah voter suppression. How very democratic and noble.

Just been to vote - it seemed as busy as at the Referendum.
At the CC elections I was the only proxy for another person, this time there is a whole page of them!

I was telling ds1 about 92 yesterday... and my hope that 5 years of Tory cuts will mean they never get into power again.
I've told him that he and his friends are my only hope.
So...for me today itll be chin up and to try and make a difference in my community in the coming hard times.
Good luck everyone
And thank you all for this thread...it has become my oasis of sanity in all the madness
Love badders x

Could someone help a simple soul out here.
Have I got this right: T May had a majority of 12 or 17 (seen different figures). She calls a general election and is now predicted to end up with a majority of 80 or 100+
Is that the bones of it?

Badders - same for me. I will carry on trying to be a decent human being and support my community.

Guido Fawkes @ GuidoFawkes
BMG, Labour's own pollster, had the Tory lead at 13% in their final poll. Tory official pollster Crosby Textor saying nothing. #GE2017

Also woke up with a hollow feeling in my stomach. If the recent polls are right and she gets her massive majority. We need to remember people power does work. Remember "poll tax".

Anyone?

DS (19) made me laugh. He's 'never seen an election in which the youth are so fired up' apparently.

Because, at his age, he's seen so many .

Yes, definitely remember the Poll Tax and people who demonstrated against apartheid, Cruise Missiles etc.

Noah - yes, you've got it right.

The reason for the different current majority figures is because Sinn Fein never take up their seats, so in practice the threshold for a majority is only 323.

May called the elections claiming she needed a bigger majority in order to have a mandate in her negotiations even though the EU says it makes no difference In actuality it was because she saw an opportunity to crush Labour, get a massive majority and be able to ignore those of her own backbenchers who are unhappy about some of her plans (eg the ECHR and a UK Bill of Rights).

Anything less than an 80 majority will probably result in the men in get suits coming to get her.

Current forecasts are suggesting a wide range, from a hung parliament to a reasonable majority - but not the super-majority she wanted. But polls can be wrong.

The reason for the disparities is that pollsters are factoring in propensity to vote to different extents and/or using the electorate that voted in 2015 rather than those new to the electoral register as a result of the EU Referendum and/or tactical voting.

I'm going to fight my sadness by being optimistic.

Labour win - great
Tory win- great. Wine and popcorn to watch the party fallout.

Assuming I can still afford it of course. Might be rain water and gruel.

BestisWest: if your ds were in Scotland, he'd already have already been able to vote in 1 referendum, 1 council election and 1 Holyrood election - and had to observe the last WM election and the EU Referendum even though he'd been able to vote in other things.

Thank you, prettybird. Forgot about the Sinn Fein no-shows.

Might be rain water

Shhhhhh, she might come for that next, why should the proles get water coming out of the sky for FREE!!!

My DD's primary school did a mock election yesterday which the lib dems won by a landslide. 300 or so votes to them vs 2 conservative and 67 labour.

Poor DD was quite crushed when I told her she couldn't stay up all night to watch the lib dem win, but maybe soon!!

Noticed an autocorrect typo in my earlier post: I meant the "men in grey suits" coming to get May. The Conservative Party can be particularly ruthless and decisive if a leader fails to deliver.

can't say I'll be upset although I do worry who will replace her

247 is the magic number Labour needs, I'll settle for a rainbow coalition of chaos over the tories every single time

We have just voted. Usually it is dead at this time on the morning, but there was a steady stream today. Definitely more people at this time than previous elections. The people handing out the ballots were looking very chirpy.

using the electorate that voted in 2015
Even discounting the new voters, I am not sure that this is a good base. The Referendum fired up a lot of people - both sides are still angry about how it's been dealt with.

I voted at about 7.15 and I was by no means the first. The tellers already had a string of numbers on their pads.