Westministenders: Election Mayhem

[RedToothBrush]

Tick tock, tick tock goes the Brexit Clock.

Don’t panic, just don’t turn up to debates because you have talks starting on the 19th June and have to perfect the 100 page document relating to at least 750 international agreements that need renegotiating before then. Anyone who turns up for their job interview for that, is just wasting time.

If only someone hadn’t called a distracting election.

This election was dubbed to be about Brexit. Yet it is remarkable that we have barely had debate over it. No one wants to admit it really. We nearly got a consensus between Barry Gardiner, Nick Clegg and David Davis over it being a political not economic decision on Question Time on Thursday 1st June, but we are not quite there yet with the admission that the economy is toast. This means the addition money the Conservatives have promised for the NHS won’t be available but we can’t have this discussion. Its properly the fault of purdah. Instead the subject rapidly got skipped over. Instead Davis said that the target May had just set for immigration to be at tens of thousands by 2022 was unrealistic.

In post-election rumour has it that Davis is about to get a promotion to the FCO, whilst Johnson gets the boot. On the other hand Gove is also rumoured for NI and May loyal Gummer gets Brexit.

Meanwhile the 1922 Committee of Tory Backbenchers are said to be plotting the downfall of at least one of May’s guard dogs, Nick Timothy following the decision about the Dementia Tax and subsequent U-Turn. Farage also mentioned Timothy in his statement over the breaking news that the CPS are pressing charges on the Conservative Candidate for South Thanet (the former MP there), his agent and a Tory Party official over election expenses. It seems almost inconceivable that Timothy can survive a traditional Tory Knifing.

This is all as May’s leadership approval ratings are in freefall as the honeymoon is firmly ends, after the public finally got to see her create an army of strawmen as answers, in a barely concealed contempt for the public’s concerns. May’s reaction to a negative reaction? Go back into hiding from media accountability and get the Mail to do her dirty work.

Elsewhere the EU have lined up to criticise Trump over his hard ball attempt to renegotiate the Paris Climate Deal. May was noticeable by her absence as she’s trying the same trick over Brexit and is desperate to keep Trump onside. What is Trump offering us in return? Apart from a Brexit Opportunity to get stiffed.

As for the polls? Despite them, it’s difficult to see the Tories not making a net seat gain. For Labour to do well it relies on widespread tactical voting, young who haven’t previously voted turning out in levels not seen since the 1970s and this being spread across the country and not concentrated in University areas. This will be tough to achieve to simply stop a Tory Landslide, never mind a hung parliament. Labour winning a majority is the stuff of pure fantasy (needs Lab to be 12points ahead of Cons). That said, if the result isn’t much different to the 2015 result, it will beg major questions over May’s leadership and her ability to read the public mood. It will say something about her refusal to engage with ‘the saboteurs’.

Expect an increased Tory Majority but not of the epic scale of 470 they originally were aiming for.

lalalonglegs. I agree. Caroline Lucas going would REALLY shock me.

iaindale.com/posts/2017/06/05/general-election-seat-by-seat-my-final-predictions-a-tory-landslide-is-still-on
Iain Dale's final prediction. Its on the high end of the Tory Gains.

The LD ones. I think virtually all their seats will be marginal wins. So 3 could be right... so could 13.

Jim Waterson @ jimwaterson
Newsnight claims Trump's UK state visit could be cancelled, partly because the President is worried about negative reaction from UK public.

labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/06/05/polls-labours-surging-non-london-doorstep-its-a-nuclear-winter-for-labour-somethings-got-to-give/

Just over two weeks ago I posted a projection of huge losses for Labour – over 90 seats – based on dozens of conversations with activists, candidates and officials who cumulatively had sight of tens of thousands of canvass returns.

Since then, I’ve continued those conversations as Labour has apparently surged in the polls.

The result is a marked improvement in London but precious little to cheer about outside the capital.

The last few weeks have seen a strong rise in Labour promises in key seats across London, although constituencies such as Dagenham and Eltham remain very difficult.

But in the West Midlands, Yorkshire, North West and the North East, any improvement has been nugatory.

One campaigner from London who spent time in the North East last week described it as a “nuclear winter for Labour.”

AND

Last Friday, Theresa May visited Doncaster. Specifically she was in Don Valley, Caroline Flint’s constituency, a seat where Labour led the Tories by 21% in 2015. On Saturday, she was in Penistone and Stockbridge, Angela Smith’s seat, where won by 14% over the Tories in 2015. Tonight, May was in Bradford South, a seat where Judith Cummins beat her Tory opponent by 17% in 2015.

The fear of Labour officials and candidates, particularly in the West Midlands, North East, North West and Yorkshire, is that if the Tories are on course to flip seats like Don Valley, many more could be vulnerable. One official in Yorkshire told Uncut that a string of Morley and Outwoods – the seat Ed Balls lost in 2015 – was on the cards for 2017.

AND

After Corbyn’s triumph in the Labour leadership, Brexit and Trump, the old certainties no longer hold sway. This is certainly the desperate hope of Labour candidates up and down the country. Rarely have so many, who have worked so hard knocking doors, hoped that they’re so wrong.

But the evidence from Labour’s own data and the Tories’ campaigning choices is compelling and it suggests that they are not.

I'd be devastated if Trump made an excuse chose not to come for a State Visit I was soooo looking forward to going along to any protests

I'm sure the Queen would be devastated too she might be a bit old to protest though

Theresa May was apparently in Scotland today.

The only reason I know is because dh told me that Alex Thomson tweeted about how her audience consisted of 100 Tory activists who were emailed and told to attend some warehouse in the middle of nowhere

She is so keen to meet "real people"

Ciaran Jenkins‏
@C4Ciaran

"Incredibly, this appears to be genuine:"

Watch to the end.

That's it! I'm upping sticks and moving to East Yorkshire by Thursday, so I can vote for this jingletastic Tory Greg Knight. Can't stop watching it 😅

m.youtube.com/watch?v=Gt7lWRtfve8

Swedish let's move to East Yorkshire together! 😀😀

It's now an earworm. I wonder who the singer is - Vince Hill?

But then we'd have to share!

Bless him

How does a country with pretensions of being a major world player end up with a shortage of Farsi translators?

JustAnotherPoster00 Mon 05-Jun-17 11:21:58
Another hustings going wrong for the tory party

And how...
Sharp intake of breath here. That smug, condescending Tory MP is a piece of work. Asking for the police to be called? Like they are her own personal poodles...

There was a lot of anger in that audience and rightly so.

Mike Smithson‏*@MSmithsonPB* 6hrs ago
Survation phone poll for GMB
CON 41.5% (-2); LAB 40.4% (+3); LD 6% (-3); UKIP 3% (-1); Others 9% (+2)

Faisal Islam‏*@faisalislam*

ICM online poll lower youth vote turnout
Con: 45 Lab: 34 = Landslide
Survation phone poll high youth t/o
Con: 41 Lab: 40 = Hung Parliament

That was a depressing read, RTB.

Although since the election was called, I've lowered my expectations to "anything less than total annihilation of the opposition, and imposition of an eternal Blue one party state" as being a good outcome.

I still don't quite understand the exodus of Remainers to the two major parties either , perhaps best explained by the "People Have Spoken" narrative? Then it just comes down to whether you prefer red unicorns or blue unicorns.

Oh that video! It's pure Alan Partridge, the music is surely by Glenn Ponder and performed by Lazarus .

I can't look at the polls any more, they keep filling me with hope only to dash it seconds later. I'm beginning to hate hope.

Crazy world. UKIP leader in East Anglia is asking people to vote for the Lib Dem against the Tory in North Norfolk:

www.edp24.co.uk/news/politics/senior-ukip-figure-peter-reeve-urges-people-in-north-norfolk-to-vote-liberal-democrat-1-5047185

I've gone through all the various seat by seat predictions.

If I'm honest, I can not see the Conservatives getting below 353. And that's a minimum figure.

The most I can see Labour getting is 218.

I've got the SNP on 46.

The LDs are probably hardest to gauge. I think they will come out with a minimum of 6 in the end, but they are hard to call as they are all going to be close.

I just can not reasonably get even close to YouGov though I'm afraid. To do that, I'm into the land of wishful thinking.

The Ian Dale prediction has Labour's Rosanna Allin Khan in Tooting ceding her seat to the Tories. Her majority (6357) is not bad but probably lower than it should be, imo, as she won the seat in the by-election called when her predecessor, Sadiq Khan, became Mayor of London and turn out wasn't that high. I'd be very surprised if she lost - she has roots in the constituency and is very popular locally plus the CLP is very active.

I still don't quite understand the exodus of Remainers to the two major parties either

I thinks it's because, realistically, your choice is red or blue.

And the way those parties are going to handle brexit, and their brexit teams, are very different.

I'm going with labour because I can't see how going into the negotiations threatening the eu, not guaranteeing right of eu nationals and a hard brexit can be a good thing.

m.youtube.com/watch?v=DeYZQYHjjvo

Here's the full version of Greg's song. Obviously a very talented man.

I think 46 for the SNP will be a good result. It'll be spun as a failure - but it was the 2015 that was the aberration and a demonstration of the perils of FPTP (which, despite having benefitted from, the SNP still want to move away from).

Just seen the weather forecast for Thursday: rain, traditionally good for the Conservatives and bad for Labour

I thinks it's because, realistically, your choice is red or blue.

Doesn't explain the LibDem seats, some of which are in strongly Remain areas, looking seriously endangered. Unless you're meaning the red or blue unicorns.

I think the bottom line is, people like things simplistic and are actually offended when offered real choices. All this constant thinking, about complex stuff with no easy answers, is just tedious, when you could choose to believe a simple red or blue fairy tale.

This is fascinating and along the same lines as what I've been saying for sometime now:

Kate Allen‏@KateAllen
This is an interesting thread which should make news media stop and have a bit of a think about what they're doing.

twitter.com/mrjammyjamjar3/status/871829837262061568
This is a thread written by a Muslim about Anjem Choudary. One of the London Bridge attackers is being reported as a follower of his.

Kate Allen‏@KateAllen

As I said at the weekend, we need terrorism reporting guidelines akin to the existing suicide reporting guidelines:
www.samaritans.org/media-centre/media-guidelines-reporting-suicide/advice-journalists-suicide-reporting-dos-and-donts

Very abbreviated version of the Samaritans guidelines:
1. Think about the impact of the coverage on your audience

• Your story might have an effect on vulnerable individuals or people connected to the person who has died.

2. Exercise caution when referring to the methods and context of a suicide

• Details of suicide methods have been shown to prompt vulnerable individuals to imitate suicidal behaviour.

3. Avoid over-simplification 4. Steer away from melodramatic depictions of suicide or its aftermath

• Be wary of over-emphasising community expressions of grief.
• Doing so may suggest that people are honouring the suicidal behaviour rather than mourning a death.
• Reporting suicide as a tragic waste and an avoidable loss is more beneficial in preventing further deaths.
• A sensitive piece that explores the emotional devastation of a suicide on family and friends may prompt people with suicidal thoughts to reconsider or to seek help.

5. Aim for sensitive, nonsensationalising coverage

• Don’t label locations as ‘hot spots’ or refer to a possible rise in suicides in a particular place or among a specific group as an ‘epidemic’.
• Be careful not to promote the idea that suicide achieves results.
• When writing headlines think carefully about content and potential impact.
• Check that inappropriate language has not been used, such as referring to a death as someone having ‘committed suicide’.
• Try an alternative such as ‘died by suicide’.

6. Consider carefully the placement and illustration of reports

• Some suicides attract intense media scrutiny. However, where possible, refrain from positioning a story too prominently, for example on a front page or as a lead bulletin, as this may unduly influence vulnerable people.
• Try to avoid repeated use of images of a deceased person, for example in online galleries.
• Avoid dramatic or emotional images and footage, such as a person standing on a ledge.

7. Educate and inform

• Whenever possible, try to refer to the wider issues associated with suicide, such as risk factors like alcohol misuse, mental health problems and deprivation.
• If possible, include references to suicide being preventable, and to sources of support such as Samaritans.

Anjem Choudary has been given a platform on FoxNews, Nicky Campbell's "The Big Questions", Paxman's NewsNight and Andrew Neil's "This Week". Amongst others. All of these have helped normalised him and presented him as being representative.

Yet who gets the blame for tolerating extremism too much? Its human rights activists and liberals.

Hello whats this:

In 2013 the British pressure group Hope not Hate presented a report which identified Choudary as "a serious player on the international Islamist scene", saying that although there was no evidence that he was directly responsible for instigating any terrorist plots, "he helped shape the mindset of many of those behind them" and "through his networks linked them up to terror groups and supporters across the world." Choudary dismissed the claims as "fanciful", that if they were true, UK security services would have arrested him.

That certainly does not fit with the narrative that is spewed out and continues to be repeated by politicians. And note on the thread above about the Muslim responses to Choudary and how he was on the 'outside'. He was thrown out of mosques and confronted by members of the community.

Time and time again we see it: the right wing are the best friends of these groups, because they sensationalise them. Yet those who have been critical are framed as being too tolerant and not speaking out.

Why? Because what sells newspapers and gets ratings.

I notice that Buzzfeed have been particularly careful in their reporting for Manchester and London Bridge. The same can not be said for the BBC who have had coverage which has been far more sensationalist than in the past, in an effort to compete with other news agencies.

We need to tackle the Katie Hopkins every bit as much as the Anjem Choundarys to stop extremism.

If we are to have an honest conversations about this, in this country, we need to make sure this is reflected. But yeah. The internet are promoting hate groups. We must crack down on the internet and Muslim communities must do more to report. Bollocks.

Somehow, I'm not sure May's government is going to really support that much needed honest conversation.