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Brexit

Westministenders – 10 days to go

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 29/05/2017 11:48

The Maynifesto is out (lets be honest here; other Manifestos are just exercises in dreaming). The rumours of what will happen post Election are in full swing.

The Conservatives are ‘relaunching’ their campaign after Theresa May’s single handed attempt at throwing the election, has needed an intervention.

Yet the reality is that May will win. And win comfortably, increasing her majority. Talk of a Corbyn surge is just that. Talk. He still is more than 5% behind and the excitement about how the gap has closed is getting carried away. Indeed it only helps the Conservatives to get their vote out. Corbyn also started from such a dreadful position, it just makes the effect look more dramatic than it really is and May was always going to struggle to get much more support after the local election peak.

The thing is none of the political parties are covering themselves in glory. No one is offering what people want. In terms of voters not being impressed by their leadership, I don’t think many are really happy and are just going for the best available option out of a particular bad crop. It does not bode well for the future regardless of who wins. We should be worried about the quality of debate and our representatives regardless of who we end up voting for.

Come election night there are going to be some particularly shocking results. The idea that there is a national trend is not right. This election is highly localised in nature. Which will result in these surprises to outsiders but perhaps not locals.

June 9th will make for a lot of soul searching I suspect. For all three parties. There will be leadership questions that remain unanswered and need to be resolved. There are still massive political divides in parties. Heads will roll and need to be replaced. Expectations and the reality have been out of line for all three in one way or another.

Yet all of this is a side show to an extent. Whilst we all scrabble around trying to work it out amongst ourselves, the rest of the world moves forward without us. And the clock ticks.

Merkel has set the tone for the next round of Brexit. It is regarded by the German political elite as ‘Trumpandbrexit’. We are part of the same phenomenon even though many see it through different eyes in this country. This lack of awareness of how we are perceived outside our own walls is something we will face head on at some point and it won’t be good.

Trump himself is up to his neck in scandal. And has risked our safety as a direct result. May might have held her hand but that relationship does not seem to be going well for us. We are between a rock and a hard place and are drifting out to see.

Global Britain has never seemed so lonely and isolated. The rosy future we were promised, becomes ever more a distant dream rather than a dawn of a new age.

Reality will get us in the end.

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PigletWasPoohsFriend · 01/06/2017 18:43

Not sure what money they have tbh.

whatwouldrondo · 01/06/2017 18:43

Lurking In the same vein, from Newsthump

Theresa May has today had her Jobseeker’s Allowance stopped for failing to turn up for an interview.

Mrs May, who is applying for the post of Prime Minister, was repeatedly warned that failing to turn up for an interview would harm her chances of receiving benefits.

Department for Work and Pensions spokesperson Simon Williams said, “It’s very simple – to show us that jobseekers are serious about a job we expect them to attend interviews and answer questions so that we can gauge their suitability for the post.

“Otherwise we assume that they’re not up to the job, or just work-shy bastards, and dock their money.

“We might have to give the job to someone else now, though fuck knows who. This is the worst shower of applicants I’ve ever seen.”

Mrs May defended her decision not to turn up, saying that she was dead busy and they never sent her a letter or nothing and anyway she sent her mate Amber along who’s dead good at interviews and aced it for her."

whatwouldrondo · 01/06/2017 18:51

By the way to add to my dark ads from the Tories I am now getting dark ads from Labour using similar scare tactics to the Tories but focused on the Libdems, bizarrely Farron not Vince (and if the vote isn't going to be as much about personal following as party here I don't know where it would be). The Labour vote here has never made it much over 10% of the vote so targeting here and in that way is just a waste of money.

ElenaGreco123 · 01/06/2017 19:03

The Lib dems do have money in theory. I read a few of their fundraising emails and some big donors were matching the public donations.

Labour OTOH sent me world's most useless shopping bags in return for my money. One bag has a very idealised version of Corbyn on it. The other one may be a picture of the shadow cabinet. No one would know.

RedToothBrush · 01/06/2017 19:13

Andrew Neil is being an arse with Tim Farron. Its not pretty.

He didn't get May to answer questions. He didn't harass her to this degree.

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RedToothBrush · 01/06/2017 19:33

www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/conservative-election-adverts?utm_term=.hmJRJzjYK#.hxrkpXn0M
These Are The Anti-Corbyn Adverts The Tories Are Paying To Promote On Facebook
It’s hard to track what is happening in the online campaign, but with the help of Who Tracks Me, BuzzFeed News has gained unprecedented access to Conservative Facebook adverts – and details of who they’re targeting.

It seems I am being targeted by the LDs, Cons, Labour and Greens atm. There is no green standing here!

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RedToothBrush · 01/06/2017 19:48

George Eaton‏*@georgeeaton*

Big win for @itvnews: they've signed up Balls and Osborne as election night analysts.

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BigChocFrenzy · 01/06/2017 20:02

Polls & GE result

with the different turnout weighting of the poll orgs, plus the complexities of fptp, the only certain result is that some or all pollsters will be blushing & farting on 9 June.

The result could be (probably !) anywhere between hung parliament and 100 seat Tory majority.
My private expectation, on which I will bet 100g of 90% Excellence Lindt with woman:
A 50 seat Tory majority

My hope:
that May and her govt are humbled enough to stop their arrogance towards the public;
to stop them squashing those in the civil service or business who dare to bring them facts and expert knowledge instead of blind belief.

May needs to listen to those outside her cosy inner circle, outside the Tory Ultra echo chamber

woman12345 · 01/06/2017 20:02

Caught the end of Neil. He was horrible to Farron. Hope there are complaints.

BigChocFrenzy · 01/06/2017 20:04

June 8/9 night will be a very exciting horserace - if your future wellbeing isn't affected by the result

squoosh · 01/06/2017 20:14

Oh Balls and Osborne will make for good election night telly.

squoosh · 01/06/2017 20:14

Oh Balls and Osborne will make for good election night telly.

muckypup73 · 01/06/2017 20:18

Disgusting!!!!! www.disabilitynewsservice.com/election-2017-tory-disability-minister-endorses-forced-institutionalisation/

The minister for disabled people has failed to oppose the idea of forcing disabled people into institutions against their will.

Penny Mordaunt was asked what she would do to protect disabled people from “forced institutionalisation” and whether she opposed it, as part of a series of questions put to her by the campaigning website Disability United.

Fleur Perry, editor of Disability United, had asked the question in the wake of research she carried out earlier this year which showed how many NHS primary care organisations had quietly introduced policies that could see disabled people with complex healthcare needs shunted into residential or nursing homes against their wishes as a cost-saving measure.

But instead of defending disabled people’s right to live in their own homes, Mordaunt said: “The decision about whether to institutionalise somebody against their will is rightly a matter for medical professionals, and decisions should be made on the grounds of individual safety and health.”

She then referred to the failure to move people with learning difficulties out of assessment and treatment units, in the wake of the Winterbourne View scandal, and said there was a need for more care and support services for people who have been in such institutions, to “ensure that no one who should not be in an institutional setting is”.

But the disabled researcher and writer Dr Jenny Morris, who helped write the Labour government’s Improving the Life Chances of Disabled People white paper and led the review which developed its 2008 Independent Living Strategy, said Mordaunt was “dodging the issue”.

She said the minister had failed to address a problem that was “completely unacceptable in a modern society”, which was local authorities and NHS clinical commissioning groups forcing people into institutions because they refused to pay for the support those people need to continue living safely at home.

Morris, a member of the Independent Living Strategy Group – which is made up of disabled people and allies from a range of organisations – said Mordaunt appeared to be focusing only on the government’s Transforming Care programme.

The programme aims to make it easier for people with learning difficulties and autism who also have mental health conditions and challenging behaviour and are kept in assessment and treatment units to escape those institutional facilities and live independently in the community.

But even on that issue, Morris said, Mordaunt had ignored the rights of people who have capacity to make their own decisions.

She said Mordaunt was showing “a distinct lack of awareness” of the independent living challenges facing disabled people, including those affected by the closure of the Independent Living Fund, and of the right to independent living under the UN Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities.

Another disabled campaigner said Mordaunt’s views were “very worrying” and appeared to ignore “50 years of social progress” and hand medical professionals a “mandate to decide who can and can’t live where they choose”.

She also pointed out that Mordaunt had made no mention of an individual’s decision-making capacity, or of “any consideration of a person’s wishes and views of where and how to live their life, or of their rights under the Human Rights Act.

“The idea that sole control of that decision-making process could or should be in the hands of medical professionals appears to go against the principles of independent living and seems reminiscent of the decades-outdated ‘medical model’ of disability.”

The Conservative party had failed to respond to a request for clarification of Mordaunt’s comments by noon today (Thursday).

PigletWasPoohsFriend · 01/06/2017 20:21

Oh Balls and Osborne will make for good election night telly.

Itv has been better than bbc for the past couple of elections.

Dimbleby isn't as good as he used to be.

BigChocFrenzy · 01/06/2017 20:27

Latest Wales poll from Prof Scully:

Changes are compared to last month
Labour lead +1% to 11%
Further squeezing of small parties

LAB 46%(+2)
CON 35%(+1)
LDEM 5%(-1)
PC 8%(-1)
UKIP 5%(nc).

Seats (changes to 2015 GE)
LAB 27 (+2)
CON 9 (-2)
PC 3 (nc)
LDem 1 (nc)

Remember, shortly after the GE was called, Con were actually in the lead and headlines were that Wales would turn blue. Consistent with sharp Con / Lab turnaround seen elsewhere in the mainland.

woman12345 · 01/06/2017 20:35

Funny this Welsh turnaround. When news of that broke last week, the other polls started to change gear in Labour's direction. Wales was mainly leave? Email from local labour party is cautiously optimistic.

Peregrina · 01/06/2017 20:41

Has Wales woken up to the fact that the Tories will be an absolute disaster for them?

BestIsWest · 01/06/2017 20:42

Mucky Of all the things I've read about the Tories, I think that is just about the most heartless and appalling.

BigChocFrenzy · 01/06/2017 20:47

When I was growing up, I didn't meet any kids or adults with DS, LDs, AS, or with severe physical disability - mainly because they were placed in institutions as soon as they were old enough to be diagnosed "educationally subnormal", which was the term then Angry

They stayed there all their lives, never having known a home life.

The only adult I knew who was disabled as a child, but had never been in an institution, came from the wealthiest family in the area, who owned most of the village and surrounding lands.

It wasn't usual for ordinary families to keep disabled DC at home, because there was insufficient support and social attitudes were to keep the disabled out of sight, out of shame.

People now say institutions will be more expensive than care at home.
Well actually it wasn't then, because they were just locked away, which is surprisingly cheap if the aim is just to keep people fed, clothed and docile, with drugs if need be. Not to help them develop their potential.

Do we really prefer to send the disabled back to the 1950s-1960s rather than pay more tax ? Hmm

BiglyBadgers · 01/06/2017 20:49

That is disgusting muckypup, but I am not in the least surprised. The cons know full well the reason that local social care services are pushing people to care homes is because they have been so screwed by funding cuts they simply can't afford to provide the care people need in their home. When you take into account the costs of paying to adapt people's homes and round the clock specialist care costs councils can't pay for this on the funding they have. It is horrific that Councils are forced into having to make these choices and that it is vulnerable people who suffer for it. Angry

whatwouldrondo · 01/06/2017 21:06

Sorry if this has already been linked but it highlights the reality of living with disabilities under austerity. Any normal person will need a tissue www.theguardian.com/society/commentisfree/video/2017/may/30/living-with-disabilities-youre-treated-worse-than-a-farm-animal-video

prettybird · 01/06/2017 21:09

It would be not funny if the Conservatives do win more seats in Scotland (say 6) and they end up with 329 seats.

Contrary to popular perception, Scotland has almost never made a difference to the colour of the government elected: and those few occasions it did were not stable (tiny majority which was lost, LibLab pact, minority government).

It would be horrifically ironic if it were the number of Scottish Conservative new MPs which resulted in a Conservative majority Shock

muckypup73 · 01/06/2017 21:10

whatwouldrondo, I saw that lastnight and cried my eyes out xxx

Peregrina · 01/06/2017 21:11

Well actually it wasn't then, because they were just locked away, which is surprisingly cheap if the aim is just to keep people fed, clothed and docile, with drugs if need be. Not to help them develop their potential.

Indeed so. People were told to put their disabled children into an Institution and forget that they ever had them! A horrifying attitude, which I would hope never to see come back. It's nonsense to say because of austerity we can't afford decent care. We chose to vote in a party which prefers to give tax cuts to the wealthy.

PigletWasPoohsFriend · 01/06/2017 21:11

Email from local labour party is cautiously optimistic.

That is a classic ploy to get votes out I'm afraid.

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