Westministenders: Theresa's Common People

[RedToothBrush]

She came from Oxfordshire she had a thirst for knowledge
She studied geography at Saint Hugh's College
That's where politics
Caught her eye

She told them that her husband was loaded
The press barons said "In that case have a rum and coca-cola"
She said "Fine"
And in thirty seconds time she said

I want to look like common people
I want to do whatever common people do
I want to eat like common people
I want to sleep like common people
Like you

Well what else could Fiona and Nick do
They said "We'll see what we can do"

They took her to a supermarket
I don't know why
But they had to start it somewhere
So it started there
They said pretend you've got no money
She just laughed and said
"Oh you're so funny"
They smiled "Yeah”
Well we can't see anyone else smiling in here

Are you sure you want to live like common people
You want to see whatever common people see
You want to eat like common people
You want to sleep like common people
Like me

But she didn't understand
She just smiled and held Trump’s hand

Order that benefits get the chop
Tell them all to get a job
Promise to bring back the grammar school
Pretend you don’t think them a fool
But still you'll never get it right
'Cause when you're laid in bed at night
Watching the news talking about building the wall
All have to do is call your mates to fake it all

You'll never live like common people
You'll never do whatever common people do
You'll never fail like common people
You'll never watch your life slide out of view
Whilst you blame it all on the EU
Because that’s all you can do

Sing along with the common people
Sing along and it might just get Brexit through
Laugh along with the common people
Laugh about leaving the EU

It’s the most stupid thing that you will do
Because you think that it is cool
You’ll call them a ‘lying foreigner’
But don’t say we didn’t warn you
You’ll regret saying we are better off out
'Cause everybody hates a benefits tourist

It doesn’t matter if you can’t do the math
With all those pockets that you grease
You’ll win the vote in Bath

You will never understand
How it feels to live your life
With no meaning or control
And with nowhere left to go
You are amazed that they exist
And wish they were all white
So you tell ‘The Big Lie’

Get THE flat above THE shop
Cut your hair and get THE job
Trick some mugs and hire some fool
Pretend you are not really cruel
But still you'll never get it right
Instead you're plotting late at night
About which ‘cockroach’ will take the fall
All have to do is call your mates to fake it all
Yeah

You'll never live like common people
You'll never do what common people do
You'll never fail like common people
You'll never watch your life slide out of view
As we plan to leave the EU
Because there's nothing else left to do

But ‘moan’ about how we don’t want to leave the EU.

I understood, charmageddon
I just meant Bojo was right - and is entitled to be cross with Fallon.

Opinium lead reduced from 13 to 10%
Fieldwork 23-25 May

CON 45% (-1)
LAB 35% (+2)
LDEM 7% (-1)
UKIP 5% (nc)

ComRes lead reduced from 18 to 12%
CON 46 (-2)
LAB 34 (+4)
LDEM 8 (-2)
UKIP 5% (nc)

On a uniform swing, compared to 2015 GE:

a Tory lead of 12% would indicate 21 seats gained from Labour
A 10% Tory 14 gains from Labour.

BIG ifs & buts wrt 2015 comparisons and uniform swings
but atm polls suggest a moderately increased Tory majority but not the huge majority that May wanted as a mandate

the team who decide the threat level.

I don't have, in recent times, much time for Bojo. However post 7/7 he was definitely giving the air of a far more professional and clever person than now. I can't figure out which was the act though or if all of it is.

Average lead in the four polls this weekend: 9%.

Have those on this thread seen JC is coming on for a webchat on Tuesday?.. A brilliant idea, fair play Mr Corbyn!

Valentine I completely disagree that transplanting a form of "democracy" that evolved in the a power struggle between an absolute monarch without too much of a grasp of pragmatic and fiscally sound government and a wealthy class of yeoman farmers on a small island in the seventeenth century or indeed the power struggles and cultural context of a newly independent US is some sort of magic pill to deliver peace and economic growth worldwide. That is exactly the mistake the allies made in the Middle East and also exactly why I marched against the Iraq war, no plan was in place to replace what was there with a political system rooted in Middle Eastern culture, and the resulting bloodshed and chaos was exactly what I and people I discussed it with who actually study the Middle East were predicting.

I also think it is a bit naive to think that in countries where they claim to adopt a form of western democracy like India, Singapore and South Korea that it does not become subverted by local culture. I am no expert on Indian politics but I do know that Indian businessmen I have dealt with in sectors of the economy that are thriving such as providing outsourcing for financial services operations and tech complain that they are successful in spite of a corrupt and often regressive government not because of it. In South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore Confucian cultural practises mean that personal networks subvert formal democratic (and business) processes as we have seen very clearly recently in South Korea. That was just a manifestation of how their economy has been held back by self serving regressive personal networks.

Titos Yugoslavia, Castro's Cuba (which was throttled not by Communism but by American Imperialism) and even modern China are proof that Communist governments can enjoy popular support and aside from Cuba for the reason I gave deliver stability and economic growth. The problem is with the suppression of civil society which gives people the skills and base to balance the government's actions with a meaningful opposition. And the disregard for human rights and rule of law, but that is in part culturally based too. Confucian ideology does not recognise a self, just a child, parent and member of a local and national community with all the responsibilities and roles and identities those confer. There has been a rule of law in China for thousands of years, administered consistently by a professional bureaucracy, it is just that it is rooted in the organic playing out of power networks rather than the western concept of "justice". However the Confucian system that Xi claims the mandate of does include a lot of elements that make our democracy a vehicle of good government (in normal times) including checks and balances, Tiannanmen was the was a manifestation of the duty of the lierati to come forward and highlight to the ruler if they are failing in their responsibilities to the people, which is why Deng took time to go down to the square to listen in the early stages.

I do not know what the answer is to deliver greater equality, peace and good government in the world but a one size fits all solution in the form of western democracy is a manifestation of western arrogance. At several junctures in twentieth century history Chinese intellectuals have come together to share and discuss political ideas both western and eastern to try and arrive at a solution for China (The May 4 movement in 1919, The Hundred Flowers movement during Mao and Tiannanmen, which was NOT just about democracy, all the symbols of democracy in the square were there in an ironic joke on western journalists). I know something similar happened in India. Perhaps western governments should facilitate that process with greater respect for local culture, ideologies and political ideas, rather than rush in like a bull in a china shop.......

And just to bring it back to Brexit, it is precisely the fact that there is far more in common in our forms of western democracy and political ideology than divides us from the US as well as the rest of the world, that makes it clearly in our interests to stay in a union with the rest of Europe. That and the fact that the EU has generally had a softer and more respectful approach to sharing ideas of government with allies such as the ASEAN countries than the US, or of course Russia which seeks authoritarian right wing control or China which wants economic tribute.

I also think it is a bit naive to think that in countries where they claim to adopt a form of western democracy like India, Singapore and South Korea that it does not become subverted by local culture.

I agree with that completely. India is an extremely patriarchal society, there is massive social injustice at every level. I agree with that. But unfortunately, the new baseline has become "whether or not they are breeding terrorism or not?" And the short answer is no. You can't say the same about Pakistan where probably thousands of wahabi madressas are in full action still and the civil society has been weakened by multiple army dictators (at least two of which directly contributed to the breeding and nurturing of terrorism in many ways; I think Pakistan's General Musharraf has a lot to answer for what he did with the foreign aid he got in the name of fighting Taliban; he had to find a way to legally abondon the snakes they were raising to fight Russia when the last army chief was ruling the country for years and the snakes didn't like the loss of jihadi targets , the money loss and turned on their own; he crushed parts of the country that were fighting tooth and nail against a full sell out to China (the big trade corridor to the rest of the world) of the local resources in those regions) and let quite a few large corruption scandals drop because of friendships/relations.
basically, even the faulty/lacking form of democracy got thwarted at least twice in Pakistan (unlike India) for aiding and abetting terrorism in a country which was making a nuclear bomb too.
No matter what, democracy is the best we have got right now. This is the way to make things better anywhere. So that social engineering effort in Pakistan failed big time and came back to bite us on the arse because there is a huge number of Pakistani diaspora here form the areas where some of the most horrible madressas/factions still operate. Why no one in the U.K. Thought this will spill over here is anybody's guess.

they are successful in spite of a corrupt and often regressive government not because of it.

I agree with this too but I have to say it is far better to have an indigenous population and a finite set of problems (India; you at least know what you are fighting against and its mainly local rogues though I know what kind of an uphill battle that is and I am not minimising it in any way) than having an infinite number of internally and externally displaced refugees in their millions spilling into a country after both Afghan wars (Pakistan; alongside any number of illegal arms and drugs trades, the country is home to god knows how many permanently staying legal/illegal Afghan war refugees from both 1980s and 2000s now!) that was already deliberately infested with madressas spouting hate against all the rest of the humanity basically. That is the kind of thing that doesn't go away with one generation because it's so overwhelming that one generation of the civil society simply can't fight it, unlike India where at least we saw some betterment with each passing decade.

However the Confucian system that Xi claims the mandate of does include a lot of elements that make our democracy a vehicle of good government (in normal times) including checks and balances

This is an excellent point. I believe ann incompetent and oppressive lot in government leads to self destruction too. So for example, India's Modi has a hideous past in many ways. He was forced to evolve and somehow, somewhere things are probably better (again, my baseline is terrorism so don't read too much and too fast into this please). The kind of internal issues India faced (parts of India also faced spillover from the jihadi network of Pakistan, another proxy thing, isn't it?) in terms of riots etc, are happening slight less now as the civil society is getting stronger and stronger (I believe a country as big and as full of hunger as India(bengal and Pakistan too) is surviving because there is a massive unregistered/undocumented economy of humanity in there and probably that is one thing your friends were hinting at too). This didn't happen in Afghanistan. Neither did it happen in Pakistan because even the bloody school books were fucking rewritten! Thatcher was happy with the Jihad, wasn't she?

I am probably ranting again.
Connecting it to Brexit, I agree with your point about Brexit taking away what we have in common with other western democracies. And not just the shared democracy. For example, I discussed on the last page here that if we have to invest and succeed in changing the energy dogma of our oil dependence, we will absolutely need to be in EU because, being in somewhat related field of work, I see it's too hard to expect we could fight the sheer man power of China and India and the rest of the emerging science and tech countries. The horizon is changing and we must adopt make stronger alliances locally so we trade and develop technology as a bloc. Not as an island. We just don't have the capacity or man power to do that alone.

"Castro's Cuba (which was throttled not by Communism but by American Imperialism) "

I dont know about your other points (not knowing much about the specifics of India or China), but I do know a lot about Cuba, and think you are generalising massively here. The problem with Cuba is a failure of governance. For instance, it was the forcible expropriation of all businesses (including the smallest family-run businesses) at the start of Castro's government that led to a massive productivity drop, from which Cuba has never recovered. Also, every time there has been an attempt to loosen the embargo, the government has reacted by clamping down on entrepreneurship and dissent within Cuba (this happened again recently when Obama tried to ease the embargo). Freer trade threatens the government's grip on the population. Is Cuba culturally pre-destined to suffer in this way? I don't see why! Cubans are natural entrepreneurs, you can see it everywhere you go in Cuba (and with Cubans abroad).

(paywall) Telegraph ORB poll: Labour narrows gap to six points

The lead was 15% at the start of the month, so cut by 9%
Fieldwork was after Manchester

CON 44%
LAB 38%
LDEM 7%
UKIP 4%

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/27/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-labour-narrows-gap-six-points-women/

"Driving Labour’s comeback appears to be women voters, who have grown increasingly positive about Mr Corbyn’s party in recent weeks.

Just 31 per cent of women planned to vote Labour in mid-May but that figure has jumped to 40 per cent this week – just a single point behind the Tories.

The polling, carried out after the Manchester terror attack on Wednesday and Thursday, indicates Labour has not been impacted by security becoming a more prominent election issue.

It also suggests its left-wing manifesto, which included tax rises for the top 5 per cent and widespread renationalisation, played better with the public than the Tory’s pitch.

Johnny Heald, managing director of ORB International, said: “The major change in four weeks has been the shift in support among women.

“Slowly by slowly more women appear to be inclined to vote Labour.
On the issues women have more confidence in Jeremy Corbyn than men.

“Theresa May needs to appeal to these women over the next two weeks if she wants to increase her majority in the House of Commons.”

The sharp change in the polls coincided with the release of the Labour and the Conservative manifestos last week.

Labour’s policy offering, which was leaked a week early, contained key proposals such as rail nationalisation that proved popular with voters according to the polls.

The Conservatives’ manifesto saw headlines dominated by their social care reforms, which included scrapping universal winter fuel payments and the ‘triple-lock’ on state pensions.

Days later Theresa May was forced to reverse her stance after Labour attacks over the “dementia tax” by promising a cap on how much families would pay for social care."

"It also provides insights about what is driving that change.
Smaller parties are being squeezed, it appears.
In late April, Ukip and the Lib Dems were together backed by around 18 per cent of voters. That has dropped to 13 per cent as the election draws near."
< this reminds me of the 2-party politics we had pre-1981, before the SDP split from Labour >

Interesting about the female vote turning labour. I think this reflects that how badly May has served women's interests with her manifesto. She has managed to hit so many things that disproportionately impact women and the worst thing is I expect she doesn't even realise it. It tends to be women who take of care duties for parents and elderly relatives, so will be hit by social care changes, it is women who do most child related work and so will be hit by losing free school lunches.

Their idea of people being able to take a year unpaid to care for relatives just leaves women feeling pressured to take more time out of their career when they have probably just got it back on track after taking maternity. I suspect it is also women who have more exposure and awareness of the impacts of cuts to schools and the NHS as care and teaching jobs are disproportionately filled by women.

(STimes paywall) Nervous Tories to relaunch Theresa May’s general election campaign

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/nervous-tories-to-relaunch-theresa-mays-general-election-campaign-after-social-care-uturn-mjwdkcvpn

"The Tories will relaunch their faltering general election effort this week after their manifesto mess and the Manchester terror attack pushed the campaign off course.

Sir Lynton Crosby, the Tory strategist, has ordered a return to the party’s core message:
only Theresa May can be trusted to negotiate Brexit.

A senior Tory said: “All that came before the attack is ancient history;
it’s like the campaign is starting all over again.”

"However, The Sunday Times can reveal that
the Conservative camp has been riven by divisions,
with May’s chiefs of staff, Fiona Hill and Nick Timothy, at loggerheads over the disastrous Tory policy on social care. "

"Hill, like Crosby, opposed the manifesto plan on care, which was overseen by Timothy — the first time differences between May’s tight-knit team have emerged.
Crosby has consolidated his position and now has an “iron grip” on both the campaign and message."

"One MP last night branded the affair
“a major cock-up”
and demanded “retribution” against the authors of the manifesto.
“Corbyn can’t win this but we could lose it and we’ve been giving it a bloody good go,” the MP said.
“There might have to be a couple of people taken out and shot.”
< strongly and stabley >

".... party chiefs remain concerned Labour is within striking distance and
MPs privately said May will have failed if she does not secure a majority “north of 80”.
< vultures will be circling to replace her as soon as she has carried the can for Brexit. Maybe earlier if she concedes red lines, even for a 3- year Brexit transition period >

"MPs and ministers remain furious that May’s advisers kicked their core supporters by axing plans in the Tory manifesto to cap care costs."

"The chancellor, Philip Hammond, has not been asked to play a prominent role,
fuelling speculation he could be removed in a post-election reshuffle.

< STimes say Bojo, DD, Rudd will be prominent >

One Tory claimed May was even considering bringing Michael Gove and Iain Duncan Smith back to the cabinet.
< shudders >

Unpaid leave is great for wealthy mc, say those on 200k+
However most families can't afford unpaid leave, at least those who don't already plan in an SAHP

I agree it might put women under further pressure to take on more caring responsibilities for aging PILs, which would probably continue after the one year

Ah, so now we know, 80 is the target they're aiming for. That seems to be in the middle of the distribution just now. But there's still a lot to play for.

Rudd is depping for May at tomorrow's debate. Will Corbs show up? On the one hand he said he would only play if May plays so it might look like a 'U turn' but on the other I can't see who else they'd send along.

Christ, I hope it's not Dianne Abbot.

Wrong debate, tomorrow is the May / Corbyn head-to-no-head.

Can't remember when the Leaders' debate is - is it Wednesday?

All polls issued last night / this morning

All with fieldwork after Manchester

Except for YouGov (up) & ICM (nc) they show Tory lead narrowing, but still on course to win easily.

YouGov - lead 7%
Changes are from a few days ago and indicate Labour falling back slightly.
However, one poll is not a pattern and none of the other polls so far picked this up - maybe because of the shorter YouGov time period ?
A small late swing back - time to think after Manchester ? - could be hidden in the others by a higher earlier trend towards Labour

Or just reverting to the mean - YouGov still have a smaller Tory lead than the other polls except for ORB.

CON 43%(nc)
LAB 36%(-2)
LDEM 9%(-1)
UKIP 4%(nc)

Opinium - Lead 10%
Changes are from 1 week ago
CON 45%(-1)
LAB 35%(+2)
LDEM 7%(-1)
UKIP 5%(nc)

ComRes - lead 12%
Changes are from 2 weeks ago. Probably why it has the equal biggest drop in Tory lead
CON 46%(-2)
LAB 34%(+4)
LDEM 8%(-2)
UKIP 5%(nc)

ORB - Lead 6%
Changes are from 1 week ago. 6% drop, the biggest for the weekly polls.
CON 44%(-2)
LAB 38%(+4)
LDEM 7%(nc)
UKIP 5%(-2)

ICM - Lead 14% (nc)
Changes are from 1 week ago
CON 46%(-1)
LAB 32%(-1)
LDEM 8%(-1)
UKIP 5%(+1)

80 is the target is it? Funny a couple of weeks ago I'd been told they wanted to go for 470 seats. That's rather more than suggested. 80 seats would put them around where Ashcroft has been pinning it.

Btw, I think Crosby's wrong to pin the Election Campaign on only May can negotiate. Perhaps they think thats the only selling point May has at this point for 25 - 55 year olds. (Hint: it is. What else fresh or inspiring has she put out there? The Maynifesto is crap. That's why they are so desperate to stop talking policy.)

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017
Wikipedia have handy page for all recent 2017 polls.

Though also hard to see how Labour can maintain momentum now manifesto is fully launched. How do they keep up policy related interest for 11 days?

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/28/amber-rudd-to-stand-in-for-theresa-may-in-televised-leaders-debate

Amber Rudd has drawn the short straw to do May's job in the BBC leaders debate. With Corbyn saying he'd only do a debate with May what should Labour do? Put Corbyn up or wheel someone else out? If so who?

(Not Diane Abbott!)

Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Just been reminded.

It's Corbyn v Paxman and May v Paxman tomorrow on C4.

I wonder if she's going to answer where the £8billion from the NHS is going to come from. Without babbering about a stronger economy instead. I hope Paxman did his homework on that...

I'm looking forward to Jeremy Paxman definitely. There's so much to get through for both of them.

I expect TM to be as robotic as ever, and JC to be as slippery as ever.

I hope he does his stuff & unsettles & thoroughly unnerves the pair of them.